heritage health prize - predictive analytics · pdf file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466...

30
Anthony Goldbloom Kaggle [email protected] @antgoldbloom Heritage Health Prize Photo by mikebaird, www.flickr.com/photos/mikebaird A predictive modeling competition that’s life & death

Upload: vuongmien

Post on 21-Mar-2018

216 views

Category:

Documents


2 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Anthony Goldbloom Kaggle [email protected] @antgoldbloom

Heritage Health Prize

Photo by mikebaird, www.flickr.com/photos/mikebaird

A predictive modeling competition that’s life & death

Page 2: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Agenda –

What is Kaggle What are data science competitions The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Page 3: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Kaggle Connect is a marketplace with the world’s best, ranked

Page 4: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Kaggle Connect: submit your project and get matched with a data scientist

Page 5: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Agenda –

What is Kaggle What are data science competitions The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Page 6: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned
Page 7: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Competitions are judged on objective criteria

Competition Mechanics

Page 8: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned
Page 9: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Agenda –

What is Kaggle What are data science competitions The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Page 10: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

The world’s largest ever data science competition

Page 11: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Competition Mechanics

Page 12: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Competition Mechanics

Page 13: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

The prize launched on April 4th 2011 to lots of attention

Page 14: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

First milestone prize was awarded on October 4th 2011

Page 15: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Winners include an IBM consultant and a hedge fund trader

0

50

100

150

200

250

0.46

0.462

0.464

0.466

0.468

0.47

0.472

0.474

May-11 August-11 November-11 February-12 May-12 August-12 November-12 February-13

Submission Count

Leading Score

Page 16: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Meet Phil, the IBMer who was part of the team that won the first milestone prize

Page 17: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Second milestone prize was announced on April 4th 2012

Page 18: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Dave & Phil win milestone prize 2 as well

0

50

100

150

200

250

0.46

0.462

0.464

0.466

0.468

0.47

0.472

0.474

May-11 August-11 November-11 February-12 May-12 August-12 November-12 February-13

Submission Count

Leading Score

Page 19: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Third milestone prize was announced on October 4th 2012

Page 20: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Third awarded to a BI consultant and a software engineer

0

50

100

150

200

250

0.46

0.462

0.464

0.466

0.468

0.47

0.472

0.474

May-11 August-11 November-11 February-12 May-12 August-12 November-12 February-13

Submission Count

Leading Score

Page 21: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

The competition closed on April 4th 2013

Page 22: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Final prize will be announced at the in DC on June 4th

0

50

100

150

200

250

0.46

0.462

0.464

0.466

0.468

0.47

0.472

0.474

May-11 August-11 November-11 February-12 May-12 August-12 November-12 February-13

Submission Count

Leading Score

~2,000 participants in 1,660 teams 35,771 entries Over 4 years worth of man hours spent on the competition

Page 23: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Agenda –

What is Kaggle What are data science competitions The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Page 24: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Top entries bunch at around the same level of predictive accuracy

Page 25: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

There’s only so much information you can extract from a data set

0

50

100

150

200

250

0.46

0.462

0.464

0.466

0.468

0.47

0.472

0.474

May-11 August-11 November-11 February-12 May-12 August-12 November-12 February-13

Submission Count

Leading Score

Page 26: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned
Page 27: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

“In less than a week, Martin O’Leary, a PhD student in glaciology, outperformed the state-of-the-art algorithms”

“The world’s brightest physicists have been working for decades on solving one of the great unifying problems of our universe”

Kaggle’s Dark Matter Competition on the White House blog

Page 28: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned
Page 29: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Phil Brierley has performed well in a huge range of problems

Page 30: Heritage Health Prize - Predictive Analytics · PDF file100 150 200 250 0.46 0.462 0.464 0.466 0.468 0.47 ... Meet Phil, the IBMer who was ... The Heritage Health Prize Lessons Learned

Kaggle Connect provides the people – many of the world’s best, ranked