HI-RES GRIDDED MOS 6-H QPF GUIDANCEHI-RES GRIDDED MOS 6-H QPF GUIDANCE

JESS CHARBAJESS CHARBA

FRED SAMPLATSKYFRED SAMPLATSKY

METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY OST / NWS / NOAA OST / NWS / NOAA

Details = http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/154176.pdf

OUTLINEOUTLINE

QPF PRODUCTSQPF PRODUCTS

STATISTICAL MODELSTATISTICAL MODEL

CASE STUDIESCASE STUDIES

QPF COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCEQPF COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE

STATUS AND IMPLEMENTATION PLANSSTATUS AND IMPLEMENTATION PLANS

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

QPF PRODUCTSQPF PRODUCTS

6- & 12-H QPFS TO 156 HRS / POP TO 192 HRS6- & 12-H QPFS TO 156 HRS / POP TO 192 HRS

PROBABILITY FOR EIGHT 6-H PRECIP CATEGORIES PROBABILITY FOR EIGHT 6-H PRECIP CATEGORIES ( (≥ 0.01 ” - ≥ 2.00 ”) ≥ 0.01 ” - ≥ 2.00 ”)

EXPECTED 6-H PRECIP AMTEXPECTED 6-H PRECIP AMT

CATEGORICAL 6-H PRECIP AMTCATEGORICAL 6-H PRECIP AMT

CONTINUOUS 6- &12-H PRECIP AMT (6-H MAX = CONTINUOUS 6- &12-H PRECIP AMT (6-H MAX = 4.7 ”)4.7 ”)

ISSUED TWICE PER DAYISSUED TWICE PER DAY

USE RFC STAGE III PRECIP ESTS. (QC’D AT MDL)USE RFC STAGE III PRECIP ESTS. (QC’D AT MDL)

4-KM (NATIVE) GRID4-KM (NATIVE) GRID

CONUS COVERAGECONUS COVERAGE

STATISTICAL MODELSTATISTICAL MODEL

REGIONALIZED REGRESSION REGIONALIZED REGRESSION EQUATIONS FOR 4-KM GRID EQUATIONS FOR 4-KM GRID

MULTIPLE PREDICTOR INPUTSMULTIPLE PREDICTOR INPUTS

REGIONSREGIONS

PREDICTOR INPUTSPREDICTOR INPUTS

GFS MODEL OUTPUTGFS MODEL OUTPUT

HI-RES PRECIP CLIMATOLOGIES AND HI-RES PRECIP CLIMATOLOGIES AND TOPOGRAPGYTOPOGRAPGY

SPECIAL “INTERACTIVE” PREDICTORS SPECIAL “INTERACTIVE” PREDICTORS INJECT HI-RES TOPO-CLIMATE INPUT INJECT HI-RES TOPO-CLIMATE INPUT INTO QPFSINTO QPFS

DISCRETE AND OVERLAPPING REGIONS

1

2

3

4

56

7

8

9

10

11

1213

DISCRETE REGIONSDISCRETE REGIONS OVERLAPPING REGIONS & QPF OVERLAPPING REGIONS & QPF WEIGHTINGWEIGHTING

36-H PROB (%) 36-H PROB (%) ≥ 0.10 ” 6-H PERIOD ENDING 00Z 30 JAN 2008≥ 0.10 ” 6-H PERIOD ENDING 00Z 30 JAN 2008

FORECAST PERFORMANCEFORECAST PERFORMANCE

6-H QPF CASE STUDIES6-H QPF CASE STUDIES

FROM 2008 (INDEP)FROM 2008 (INDEP)

6-H PERIOD ENDING 00Z 05 JAN 20086-H PERIOD ENDING 00Z 05 JAN 2008

OBS PRECIP (”) FCST PRECIP (”)

12 H 84 H

6-H PERIOD ENDING 00Z 05 JAN 20086-H PERIOD ENDING 00Z 05 JAN 2008

OBS PRECIP (”) FCST PROB (%)

12 H; ≥ 0.50 ” 84 H; ≥ 1.00 ”

6-H PERIOD ENDING 06Z 19 MAR 20086-H PERIOD ENDING 06Z 19 MAR 2008

OBS PRECIP (”) FCST PRECIP (”)

18 H 42 H

6-H PERIOD ENDING 06Z 19 MAR 20086-H PERIOD ENDING 06Z 19 MAR 2008

OBS PRECIP (”) FCST PROB (%)

18 H; ≥ 0.50 ” 42 H; ≥ 1.00 ”

6-H PERIOD ENDING 12Z 13 SEP 20086-H PERIOD ENDING 12Z 13 SEP 2008

OBS PRECIP (”) FCST PRECIP (”)

24 H 72 H

HUR. IKE

FORECAST PERFORMANCEFORECAST PERFORMANCE

6-H QPF COMPARATIVE SCORES6-H QPF COMPARATIVE SCORES

FROM 2007-08 COOL SEASON FROM 2007-08 COOL SEASON (INDEP)(INDEP)

DAY 1DAY 1

2007-08 COOL SEASON2007-08 COOL SEASON

DAY 3DAY 3

2007-08 COOL SEASON2007-08 COOL SEASON

DAY 2DAY 2

2007-08 COOL SEASON2007-08 COOL SEASON

STATUS AND IMPLEMENTATION STATUS AND IMPLEMENTATION PLANS PLANS

EXPERIMENTAL QPFS PRODUCED IN EXPERIMENTAL QPFS PRODUCED IN REAL TIME SINCE JUNE 2008REAL TIME SINCE JUNE 2008

PLAN IS TO REPLACE/SUPPLEMENT PLAN IS TO REPLACE/SUPPLEMENT GRIDDED MOS QPFS IN NDGD GRIDDED MOS QPFS IN NDGD AROUND JAN 2010AROUND JAN 2010

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

HRMOS WILL PROVIDE IMPROVED QPF HRMOS WILL PROVIDE IMPROVED QPF GUIDANCE OVER CONUS GUIDANCE OVER CONUS

HRMOS QPFS WILL REPLACE & HRMOS QPFS WILL REPLACE & SUPPLEMENT NDGD GRIDDED MOS SUPPLEMENT NDGD GRIDDED MOS QPFS IN NEAR FUTUREQPFS IN NEAR FUTURE

THE ENDTHE END