high-resolution climate scenarios for the 21st century and applications in impacts assessments on...
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High-resolution Climate Scenarios for the 21st High-resolution Climate Scenarios for the 21st Century and Applications in Impacts Century and Applications in Impacts
Assessments on Water Resources in ChinaAssessments on Water Resources in China
Yinlong XU Yinlong XU ((许 吟隆许 吟隆))Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)Beijing, China
Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 E-mail: [email protected]
24 Feb. 2008
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ContentContentBackground of climate change researchConstruction of high-resolution climate
change scenarios with PRECISClimate change responses under SRES A2
& B2 GHGs emissions scenariosMethodology to employ PRECIS outputs for
impacts assessmentsSome results of impacts assessments on
Chinese natural ecosystems and water resources
Questions to discuss
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The warming is the most obvious in the mid- & high-latitudes
-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
The warming ratio in 1901 - 2000 年)
℃/decade
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The warming ratio in winter in 1976 - 2000
-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
℃/decade
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Warming BackgroundWarming Background
近近 5050 年温度变化年温度变化
There have been totally 22 warming winter already in China
Warming over China
Annual mean temperature
increase in past 50 years
The warming projection The warming projection in IPCC AR4in IPCC AR4
Data resources: Ding YH
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An introduction to downscalingAn introduction to downscaling
GCMs
Horizontal resolution:
~110-600 km
ImpactsModels
Downscaling
Localdetails
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Methods for downscalingMethods for downscaling
Simple interpolation
Statistical method
Regional climate model (RCM)
RCM + statistical
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A demo for RCM downscalingA demo for RCM downscalingHadAM3P
PRECIS
A demo for RCM downscaling
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Downscaling with RCMDownscaling with RCM
GCM Lateral Boundary
Initial Conditions
RCM
Other Forcings
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What is PRECIS?What is PRECIS?
PRECIS—Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies
Purpose 1: to develop the regional-level SRES climate scenarios over the world
Purpose 2: to provide the datasets for the impacts assessments of climate change at the regional-level
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The climate The climate change scenarios change scenarios
in China are in China are developed based developed based on SRES socio-on SRES socio-
economic economic assumptionsassumptions
SRES: IPCC 2000, Special Report on Emission Scenarios
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PRECIS InterfacePRECIS Interface
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Job status of PRECISJob status of PRECIS NCEP re-analysis data: 1979-20031979-2003
ECMWF re-analysis data: 1957-20011957-2001
ECMWF re-analysis data: 1979-19931979-1993
HadCM3HadCM3 (( UK Met Office Hadley CentreUK Met Office Hadley Centre )) Baseline (1961-1990): No1No1 No2 No3No2 No3
A2 (2071-2100): No1 No2 No3No1 No2 No3
B2 (2071-2100) : No1 onlyNo1 only
A1B (1961-2100): No1 onlyNo1 only
ECHAM4ECHAM4 (( Germany MPIGermany MPI )) A2 (1961-2100): No1 onlyNo1 only
B2 (1961-2100) : No1 onlyNo1 only
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Domain of PRECISDomain of PRECIS
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TerrainTerrain
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Cliamte Change Responses over whole China Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenariounder B2 scenario——Maximum/minimum Maximum/minimum
temperaturetemperature
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Cliamte Change Responses over whole China Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenario----precipitationunder B2 scenario----precipitation
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Cliamte Change Cliamte Change Responses over Responses over
whole China whole China under A2 under A2
scenario in scenario in 2080s relative to 2080s relative to baseline (1961-baseline (1961-
1990)1990)
Temperature precipitationTemperature precipitation
Annual AnnualAnnual Annual
Winter WinterWinter Winter
Summer SummerSummer Summer
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Temperature (Temperature (C) and precipitation changes (%) C) and precipitation changes (%) in Southwest China and whole Chinain Southwest China and whole China(( 20712071 ~~ 2100 vs 19612100 vs 1961 ~~ 19901990 ))
SeasonSouthwest China Whole China
A2 B2 A2 B2
T P T P T P T P
Spr 3.8 16 2.6 9 3.8 21 2.9 13
Sum 4.2 13 3.1 8 4.9 13 3.8 6
Aut 4.0 16 2.7 7 4.5 23 3.3 3
Win 4.2 12 3.1 6 4.4 11 3.5 9
Anl 4.1 15 2.9 8 4.5 17 3.3 10
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Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1
Criteria Definition
SU daily maximum temperature is over 25 ℃
CFD the largest number of consecutive days with daily minimum temperature below 0 ℃
GSL
number of days between the first occurrence of at least 6 consecutive days with daily mean temperature above 5 and the first ℃occurrence after 1st July of at least 6 consecutive days with daily mean temperature below 5 ℃
R20mm
extreme precipitation events with daily precipitation amounts greater than or equal to 20 mm
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Extreme Climate Events Criteria-2Extreme Climate Events Criteria-2
Criteria DefinitionRX5day maximum precipitation amount for the 5-day
interval
SDII
ratio of the daily precipitation amount for wet days (daily precipitation amounts greater than or equal to 1 mm) to the number of wet day
CDD
Consecutive dry days is calculated base on the largest number consecutive days with daily precipitation below 1mm
TX95
put daily maximum temperature of one year in a increase order, then TX95 is defined as the 95 percentage of the maximum temperature of this year
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a. SU
b. CFD
c. GSL
d. R20mm
e. RX5day
f. SDII
(Unit: %)
Changes of Extreme Climate EventsChanges of Extreme Climate Events2071-2100 vs 1961-1990, SRES A22071-2100 vs 1961-1990, SRES A2
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a. SU
b. CFD
c. GSL
d. R20mm
e. RX5day
f. SDII
(Unit: %)
Changes of Extreme Climate EventsChanges of Extreme Climate Events2071-2100 vs 1961-1990, SRES B22071-2100 vs 1961-1990, SRES B2
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ImpactImpactss Assessment Assessmentss of Climate Change of Climate Change on on Chinese Chinese AgricultureAgriculture
HadCM2ECHAM4
MonthlyT, P
WeatherGenerator
DailyTmax/min, Pre, Srad
CropVarities
SoilData
ManagementData
CropModels
YieldChanges;
etc
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ImpactImpactss Assessment Assessmentss of Climate Change of Climate Change on on Chinese Chinese AgricultureAgriculture
WeatherGenerator==>RCM
DailyTmax/min, Pre, Srad
CropVarities
SoilData
ManagementData
Cropmodels
YieldChanges,
etc
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How to use future climate change scenariosHow to use future climate change scenariosfor impacts assessmentfor impacts assessment
Observation
Baseline Future scenarios
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2050sunder B2 scenario
Impacts of CC Impacts of CC on natural on natural systemssystems
2080sunder B2 scenario
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Changes of runoff in China
The drought would be enhanced along the Yellow River
While the potential flooding risk along the Yangtze River would increase under SRES A2 scenario
A2 与基准年
B2 与基准年
Similar to A2 scenario, but amplitude is not so large as A2 scenario
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人均径流量变化图
不考虑气候变化
A2情景
B2情景
A2 ( 2080S )与基准年
全国径流深变化图
气候变化对水资气候变化对水资源的影响源的影响
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Questions to discussQuestions to discuss
To generate higher-resolution climate scenarios
More research fields to expandMore analyses on CC I&V assessmentsCase study on adaptation optionsAddressing the uncertaintiesDeveloping Provincial Strategies to Cope
with CC
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ChinaChina’’s INC on CCs INC on CC & & thethe 11stst Version Version of National of National Assessment Report on CC ImpactsAssessment Report on CC Impacts
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Computer network to run PRECISComputer network to run PRECIS
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Welcome you to visit Beijing!Welcome you to visit Beijing!