highway building, induced travel, and climate...
TRANSCRIPT
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Highway Building, Induced Travel, and Climate Change
Reid Ewing
University of Utah
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“You Can’t Pave Your Way Out of Congestion”
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Growth of VMT
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1995 Report on Induced Travel (with Minority View)
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Definition of Induced Traffic
“… the increment of new traffic that would not have occurred at all without the capacity improvement.”
Issues:
Vehicle or person travel
Daily or peak hour
Region-wide or corridor-specific
Short-term or long-term
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Short-Term Supply and Demand
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Short-Term Increases in Traffic
• New Trips
• More Distant Destinations
• Mode Shifts
• Route Shifts*
* Most important effect according to Dowling et al., 1994
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Long-Term Supply and Demand
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Long-Term Increases in Traffic
• Higher Car Ownership
• Reduced Transit Service
• Activity Location Shifts*
* Most important effect according to Cervero, 2002
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Growth of Traffic Over Time
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Cervero’s Bottom Lines
“…the preponderance of research suggests that induced-demand effects are significant, with an appreciable share of added capacity being absorbed by increases in traffic.”
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Average Elasticities
0.730.63Long-Term
NA0.27Medium-Term
0.40Short-Term
AreawideStudies
Facility-Specific Studies
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Additional VMT per Lane Mile
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Transit Induced Development
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Different Technologies Have Different Impacts
• Heavy Rail
• Light Rail
• Commuter Rail
• Bus
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Conditions Must Be Right for TOD
Knight and Trygg Study
• Supportive land use policies
• Availability of developable land
• Market attractiveness of site
• Healthy regional economy
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Force for Centralization and Decentralization
Radial Rail Systems can Strengthen Downtown Cores
Still, Regional Rail Investments Generally Reinforce Decentralization Trends
Pro-active Planning is Necessary if Decentralized Growth is to End Up in Subcenters
PRE-RAIL
PRE-RAIL
Decentralization
Subcentering
More Employment and Retailing Primacy
CBD Distance from CBD
Den
sity
/Lan
d P
rice
s
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Impacts Are Highly Localized
1980
1990
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FuelsVehicles
Transportation CO2
VMT
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21
VMT Growth to Wipe Out Energy Bill Savings
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2005 =
100%
Source: S. Winkelman based on EIA AEO 2008 (revised), HR6 and
sources cited in Growing Cooler .
CO2
2020 New
35 MPG
VMT
CO2
Target
1990
Fuel GHG:
-10%
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22
Aggressive Case: 50 mpg in 2030 & -20% Fuel GHG
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2005 =
100%
Source: S. Winkelman based on EIA AEO 2008 (revised), HR6,
stock model calculat ions and sources cited in Growing Cooler .
CO2
2030 New
50 MPG
Fuel GHG:
-20%
VMT
CO2
Target
1990
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What Would It Take?
• What would it take to reach the 2030 CO2
reduction target of 33 percent below 1990 levels?
• Will compact development with supportive transportation policies be enough?
• If not, how much VMT reduction must be achieved through pricing, and what price changes would be required?
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Urban VMT Reduction
–14.4%2.7–0.17Real fuel price
–4.6%2.5–0.06
Transit revenue miles
–11.4%–10.55Highway lane miles
–7.7%1–0.30Population density
Effect on Annual VMT Growth
Rate (% below Trend)
Change in Annual Growth Rates of
Policy Variables (% above/below Trend)
Elasticities of VMT with
Respect to Policy Variables
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Compact Development+Transit +Road Pricing-Highway Expansion=38% VMT reduction by 2030
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California Case Study
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State-Level Actions
Regional Initiatives (32 states)
Climate Action Plans (38 States)
GHG Emissions Targets (19 States)
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Recognition
• Technology Won’t Get Us There
• Urban Development Makes a Difference (CAT’s18->10 MMTCO2e)
• Smart Growth Can Produce Measurable Results (Haagen Smit Conference)
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AB 32 – Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006
• Statewide GHG Emissions Limit (1990 Levels by 2020)
• Annual Reporting, Monitoring, and Verification of GHG Emissions
• Scoping Plan of Maximum TF and CE Measures by 2009
• Enforceable Regulations by 2010
• Reimbursement for Local Agencies
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Implementation
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CA’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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Big Increase Projected
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Cap-and-Trade Program
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Other Measures
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Other Measures
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2.3 mm tons by 2020
Smart Growth
Contribution
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Much Bigger Numbers
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5 mm tons by 2020
Smart Growth
Contribution
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SB 375 – Climate Change Smart Growth Act of 2008
To reduce GHG emissions from cars and light trucks through incentives for better development patterns so people can choose to drive less
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Regional GHG Targets
• Air Resources Board sets Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Reduction Targets for each region
• Targets are limited to emissions from the car and light truck sector
• Targets must take into account other CARB strategies for reducing GHG emissions from this sector
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Regional Transportation Planning
• Existing law requires regional transportation plans to include a development pattern for the region
• SB 375 provides that the development pattern should be designed to achieve regional GHG reduction targets set by CARB
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Regional Transportation Plans
Under current law RTPs must have the following elements:– A policy element
– An action element
– A financial element
SB 375 adds a new element to the RTPs
- Sustainable Communities Strategy
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Alternative Planning Strategy
If an agency cannot achieve the GHG Reduction Targets within the constraints of realistic funding and realistic land use plans, it must prepare an Alternative Planning Strategyshowing how the Targets could be achieved
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Only Incentives
• Future transportation funding would be directed to projects that implement the regional transportation plan
• New provisions of CEQA would be available to local governments with local plans consistent with the regional plan
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CEQA - Transit Priority Projects
• Located within ½mile of rail or ferry station or ½mile of RTP designated fixed bus corridor with 15 minute headways
• Minimum 20 dwelling units per net acre
• Must be 75% residential or 50% residential if FAR at least 0.75
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Blueprint Planning Process
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Simulation Results
26% reduction in VMT by 2050
15% reduction in CO2 by 2050
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Who Said This?
It’s imagining new transportation systems. I’d like to see high speed rail where it can be constructed. I would like for us to invest in mass transit because potentially that’s energy efficient. And I think people are a lot more open now to thinking regionally…
The days where we’re just building sprawl forever, those days are over. I think that Republicans, Democrats, everybody… recognizes that’s not a smart way to design communities. So we should be using this money to help spur this sort of innovative thinking when it comes to transportation.
That will make a big difference.