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Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction Task 1. Travel Time Prediction School of Mathematical Sciences Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China [email protected] Yide Huang KDD CUP 2017

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Page 1: Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction · Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction Task 1. Travel Time Prediction School of Mathematical Sciences Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,

HighwayTollgatesTrafficFlowPredictionTask1.TravelTimePrediction

School of Mathematical SciencesZhejiang University, Hangzhou, China

[email protected]

Yide Huang

KDD CUP 2017

Page 2: Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction · Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction Task 1. Travel Time Prediction School of Mathematical Sciences Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,

Outline1Introduction

2ProblemUnderstanding

5Summary

3Features

4Models

Page 3: Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction · Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction Task 1. Travel Time Prediction School of Mathematical Sciences Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,

1 introduction

Toestimatetheaveragetraveltimefromdesignatedintersectionstotollgates:a.RoutesfromIntersectionAtoTollgates2&3b. RoutesfromIntersectionBtoTollgates1&3c. RoutesfromIntersectionCtoTollgates1&3

Theroadnetworktopology ,vehicletrajectories,historicaltrafficvolumeattollgatesandweatherdata

EvaluationMetrics:

drt:actualaveragetraveltimeforroute r duringtimewindow t

prt:predicted averagetraveltimeforroute r during timewindow tR:thenumber ofroutesT:numberofto-predict timewindows

Task:

Given:

Page 4: Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction · Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction Task 1. Travel Time Prediction School of Mathematical Sciences Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,

2 Problem Understanding

Weatherconditions

2.1 Influence factor of travel time

1

2

3

Timeoftheday

Holidays

Trafficconditions

Roadnetworktopology

4

5

Page 5: Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction · Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction Task 1. Travel Time Prediction School of Mathematical Sciences Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,

2 Problem Understanding2.1 Influence factor of travel time

Roadnetworktopology5

Linkinformation2

1 Sharinglinkornot

(A-3,B-3,C-3)

(length,widthandnumberoflanes)

Page 6: Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction · Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction Task 1. Travel Time Prediction School of Mathematical Sciences Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,

July.19th Oct.18th Oct.24th Oct.25th Oct.31th

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6:00

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offline

online TrainingSet

TrainingSetValidationSet

ValidationSet

TestingSet

TestingSet

2.2 Data set partition2 Problem Understanding

Page 7: Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction · Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction Task 1. Travel Time Prediction School of Mathematical Sciences Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,

1Humancomfortindex2Precipitation3Theirstatisticalfeatures(mean,sum)

1Timeo'clock2Weekday,weekendorholiday3Whetherit’s rushhour

3.1 Feature Engineering

1Thenumberofcars2Theratioofroad’s carnumber3Road’sETA4Links’ ETA5TheweightedmeanofLinks’ velocitybasedontheirlength6Whetherthereisanemergency7TherankfeatureofLinks’ velocity8Trafficvolume9Averagecapacityofvehicle10ThenumberandratioofcarthathasnoETC11Roadnetworktopology features12Lastweek’s historicalETAandcarnumber13Theirstatisticalfeatures(mean,sum)

3 Features

Weather

2

1

Time

3 RoadFeatures

Page 8: Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction · Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction Task 1. Travel Time Prediction School of Mathematical Sciences Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,

3.2 Missing data processing

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9:40-10:00

7days’historical ETA

8:00-8:20

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9:40-10:00

Topredict targettimewindowsonebyone,dayafterday.

MissingdataProcessing

MissingdataProcessing

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8:00

7days’historical data

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3 FeaturesPart 3 Part 1

Part 2

Target time windowsMissinglabel

Processing

Page 9: Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction · Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction Task 1. Travel Time Prediction School of Mathematical Sciences Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,

6:00-6:20

6:20-6:40

6:40-7:00

7:00-7:20

7:20-7:40

7:40-8:00

MissingdataProcessing

Highfeatureimportance:replacedbymeanvalues

8:00-8:20

8:20-8:40

8:40-9:00

9:00-9:20

9:20-9:40

9:40-10:00

MissingdataProcessing&

3.2 Missing data processing3 Features

Lowfeatureimportance:ifthenumberoftimewindowswhichhavemissingvalues<=3,missingvalueswillbereplacedbymeanvalues

Part 2Part 1

Page 10: Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction · Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction Task 1. Travel Time Prediction School of Mathematical Sciences Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,

8:00-8:20

8:20-8:40

8:40-9:00

9:00-9:20

9:20-9:40

9:40-10:00

3.2 Missing data processing3 Features

Balance:moresamplesandlessnoisy data

1ifthenumberofmissingvalues<=3,missingvaluewillbereplacedbymeanvalue

2Pre-training

MissinglabelProcessing

Page 11: Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction · Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction Task 1. Travel Time Prediction School of Mathematical Sciences Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,

3.2 Missing data processing3 Features

RouteB-1,C-1,C-3:thenumberofsamplesincreasesabout20%

Page 12: Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction · Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction Task 1. Travel Time Prediction School of Mathematical Sciences Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,

4 Models

TrainingSetPre-training

XGBoost Model_1 resultBagging

4.1 Model_1

TrainingSet’

1pre-training:Theratioofsamples arepreserved:0.8- 0.952Model:eXtremeGradientBoosting3Bagging:Differentparameters,Averagevalue4Model_1 result: stage1:MAPE=0.1785

stage2:MAPE=0.1786

Page 13: Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction · Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction Task 1. Travel Time Prediction School of Mathematical Sciences Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,

4 Models4.2 Model_2

Thelasttimewindow’s featuresismoreimportantthanothertimewindows

6:00-6:20

6:20-6:40

6:40-7:00

7:00-7:20

7:20-7:40

7:40-8:00

MissingdataProcessing

Part 1

Page 14: Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction · Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction Task 1. Travel Time Prediction School of Mathematical Sciences Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,

TrainingSet2Pre-training

XGBoost Model_2 resultBagging

TrainingSet’1FeatureSelection

1Featureselection:Preservethelasttimewindow’s featuresanddeletelow-importance featuresofotherfivetimewindows

2pre-training:Theratioofsamples thatarepreserved :0.8- 0.953Model:eXtremeGradientBoosting4Bagging:Differentparameters,Averagevalue5Model_2 result: stage1:MAPE=0.1792

stage2:MAPEUnknown

4 Models4.2 Model_2

Page 15: Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction · Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction Task 1. Travel Time Prediction School of Mathematical Sciences Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,

Model_1Model_2Ensemble

Stage10.17850.17920.1763

Stage20.1786Unknown 0.1771

MAPE:

5 Summary

Futurework:

1Fullyusingoflinkinformation

2Missingdataprocessing

Page 16: Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction · Highway Tollgates Traffic Flow Prediction Task 1. Travel Time Prediction School of Mathematical Sciences Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,

Thanks!

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