Hillsborough County Future Infill DevelopmentOverview of Project & Related AnalysisLes Brown, Adam Carr, Jia Fang, Jennifer Krouchick, Kaysie Salvatore

Introduction

Literature Review

Study Area & Data Collection

Results & Discussion

Conclusion & Limitations

MethodologyFlorida consistently ranks among the fastest growing states in the US, and by2070 Florida has been projected to add an additional 15 million residents (1000Friends of Florida, 2016). As the largest metropolitan area in Central Florida, theTampa Bay Area’s diverse and thriving economy and growing population will playan important role in Florida’s future (Hillsborough County, 2014). HillsboroughCounty in the eastern half of the Tampa Bay Area is home to the city of Tampaand an estimated 1.35 million residents, containing the metropolitan area’slargest population and employment bases (Hillsborough County, 2014; U.S.Census Bureau, 2015). By 2045, Hillsborough County is expected to add 700,000new residents (Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 2016). By pursuinginfill development, Hillsborough County can accommodate tens of thousands ofnew residents and encourage sustainable, mixed-use, and higher densitydevelopments while conserving open space for agricultural, ecological andrecreational purposes. Two scenarios were developed to model allocating aportion of the projected population increase into infill development. In the first,the Trend Scenario, 140000 people were allocated. In the second, the HighDensity Scenario, 210000 people were allocated. This strategy can help ensure ahealthy regional environment and economy for the Tampa Bay Area in thedecades to come (Hillsborough County, 2012).

than past land use needs and, toeffectively plan for smart growth andeffective land use,, new tools andmethods must be used.

The book, Smart Land-Use Analysis:The LUCIS Model, provides themethodology which makes it possible to“Combine the trend of sprawl with thewell-documented reality ofincrementalism in land-use change (Carr& Zwick, 2007)”. By looking at populationgrowth and estimate data in addition tofuture land use designations, betteranalysis can be performed to adequatelysupport smart growth.

The study area contains the entirety of Hillsborough County, FL. According to the2015 Census Bureau estimates, the population of Hillsborough County wasapproximately 1,349,050 people (United States Census Bureau, np, 2015).Historically, growth has been characterized by a movement away from urbancenters that weakened established neighborhoods close to the urban core(Hillsborough County, pg 3-3, 2012). Further, the county presents a large numberof economic and quality of life advantages that help with the increase in growthof the city. These advantages include, but are not limited to, availability ofhigher education; diverse economic industries including manufacturing,transportation, and warehousing; recreation opportunities; and culture, sportsand entertainment (Hillsborough County, pg 3-2, 2012). Up until the mid-2000s,most of the urban expansion that occurred took the form of lower-density,suburban communities designed for travel by personal vehicle (HillsboroughCounty, pg 3-3, 2012). However, there has been a rise in the number of peoplemoving to the urban core as well as an increase in density within the urban core.

key, and most obvious, differencebetween the Trend and High DensityScenarios is the population beingallocated, with 70,000 more people toallocate in the High Density Scenario.Other differences include the numberof classes for each scenario, the areasqueried in the classes, and dwelling unitdensities of the classes. In terms ofselecting areas for infill development, apriority was to choose parcels nearalready developed areas. In the TrendScenario, five classifications of varyingdensities were created to house 140000people. In the High Density Scenario, sixclassifications were created to house210000 people. See the followingposters for further information.

The trend prediction resulted in an allocation of 144,513 people using fiveclasses. Based on the carefully chosen criterion, the largest allocation of peopleoccurred in Class Five, because less significance was put on the inner city ofTampa, but more so on locating the new population throughout the entireCounty. For the high density prediction, Classes One through Five illustrate lesssignificance on the inner city of Tampa. Class Six focused more on Countydevelopment than city development and resulted in over 9,000 acres for infilland the largest allocation of people. of 223,074 people. As students doing thisresearch, our planning knowledge of zoning and land use planning in generalwas limited, and the class timeframe was constrained to 16 weeks. ArcGIS is apowerful program and well-equipped for land use analysis, however, ArcGIS onUF Apps was often faulty and difficult to use. It wasn’t until half-way into thesemester that UF Apps improved and we were able to run high-poweredanalyses. Although we had technically issues earlier in the semester, we wereable to finish the analysis quite easily.

Referenceswww.fgdl.orgHillsborough Countyhttp://www.census.govhttp://1000friendsofflorida.orghttp://www.bebr.ufl.eduhttp://www.planhillsborough.orgSmart Land-Use Analysis: The LUCIS Modelhttp://www.concordia.ca/cunews/main/releases/2016/070/06/urban-sprawl-western-world-research-jochen-jaeger.htmlEnvironmental Modeling & Software, 20, 955-976.Advanced Land-Use Analysis for Regional Geodesign: Using LUCISplus

Suitability value based on the

distance to school.

There is research to support that conflicts must be identified to help conducteffective land use suitability analysis when making decisions for new growth.Future land use needs will be different

Suitability Analysis Work Flow

A criteria evaluation matrix (CEM) was created forHillsborough County to be used in selecting locationsfor infill development in the Trend and High DensityScenarios. Using infill development is a great way formunicipalities and counties to increase capacity for agrowing population without expanding too much intoundeveloped areas and limit extra expenses fordemolishing or repurposing existing buildings. The

Hillsborough County Future Infill DevelopmentTrend Population Growth Scenario – Allocation Results & ConclusionLes Brown, Adam Carr, Jia Fang, Jennifer Krouchick, Kaysie Salvatore

Class 4 limited vacant parcel selection for infill development toareas: within about 4.29 miles of the CBD; with a ranking of 6 orhigher for proximity to employment centers; where parcels wereclassified as vacant acreage, vacant commercial, vacantindustrial, or vacant professional park; and within two miles of amajor interstate intersection. Class 4 contains about 645 acresof land, yielding about 548 acres of developable land. With 15dwelling units per acre in this lower density class, a total of8,229 dwelling units could be created, which wouldaccommodate approximately 19,585 people.

Class 1 limited vacant parcel selection for infill development toareas: within about 4.29 miles of the CBD; with a ranking ofseven or higher for proximity to employment centers (asdetermined by an inverse distance weighted formula); with acombined mixed use opportunity of six or better or wheremultifamily residential development was rated highly; whereparcels were classified as vacant condominium, vacantcommercial condominium, vacant residential, or vacanttownhome; and within 1.5 miles of a major interstateintersection. Class 1 contains about 302 acres of land, yieldingabout 257 acres of developable land. With 60 dwelling units peracre in this very high density class, a total of 15,438 dwellingunits could be created, which would accommodateapproximately 36,742 people.

Class 2 limited vacant parcel selection for infill development toareas: within about 2.86 miles of the CBD; with a ranking of fiveor for proximity to employment centers; where parcels wereclassified as vacant condominium, vacant commercialcondominium, vacant residential, or vacant townhome; andbetween 1.5 and 3.0 miles of a major interstate intersection.Class 2 contains about 49 acres of land, yielding about 42 acresof developable land. With 50 dwelling units per acre in this highdensity class, a total of 2,100 dwelling units could be created,which would accommodate approximately 4,997 people.

Class 3 limited vacant parcel selection for infill development toareas: between about 2.86 and 5.72 miles of the CBD; with aranking of five or higher for proximity to employment centers;with a mixed use opportunity that was anything other than 111,311, or 113; where parcels were classified as vacantcondominium, vacant commercial condominium, vacantresidential, or vacant townhome; where classification forproximity to schools was at least five; and between 0.5 and 3.5miles of a major interstate intersection. Class 3 contains about575 acres of land, yielding about 488 acres of developable land.With 35 dwelling units per acre in this moderate density class, atotal of 17,106 dwelling units could be created, which wouldaccommodate approximately 40,713 people.

Class 5 limited vacant parcel selection for infill development toareas: outside of about 5.71 miles of the CBD; with a ranking offour or higher for proximity to employment centers; with amixed use opportunity that was anything other than 111, 311,or 113; where parcels were classified as vacant condominium,vacant commercial condominium, vacant residential, or vacanttownhome; and where classification for proximity to schools wasat least five. Class 5 contains about 3,698 acres of land, yieldingabout 3,143 acres of developable land. With 5.5 dwelling unitsper acre in this low density class, a total of 17,290 dwelling unitscould be created, which would accommodate approximately41,151 people.

Classification 1 – Very High Density

Classification 2 – High Density

Classification 3 – Moderate Density

Classification 4 – Lower Density Classification 5 – Low Density

Trend ScenarioComposite Map

Details on Preference

CMR Mixed Use Opportunity LayerIn this layer, commercial, multi-family, and retail zoned landshave been assigned individual values of 3 = high preference, 2 =moderate preference, and 1 = low preference. Each layer valueassignment was based on a unique set of predeterminedsuitability criteria. To produce the CMR Mixed Use OpportunityLayer, the retail layer was multiplied by 100 and the multi-familylayer was multiplied by 10. When the three land use layers arecombined, they produce a sequence of 27 three-digit numberswith values ranging from 1 – 3. This combination appears asCommercial (3xx-1xx) + Multi-family (x3x - x1x) + Retail (xx3 -xx1). For example, a combination of 333 indicates highpreference for all three land uses, while a combination of112 indicates low preference for commercial and multifamily andan intermediate preference for retail. This process allows each ofthe three land preference types to be evaluated relative to theother two in a single step and highlights areas of opportunity formixed-use development.

Hillsborough County Future Infill DevelopmentHigh Density Population Growth Scenario – Allocation Results & ConclusionLes Brown, Adam Carr, Jia Fang, Jennifer Krouchick, Kaysie Salvatore

Class 4 limited vacant parcel selection for infill development toareas: between about 2.86 and 4.29 miles of the CBD; with aranking of six or higher for proximity to employment centers;where parcels were classified as vacant acreage or vacantcommercial; and within 1.5 miles of a major interstateintersection. Class 4 contains about 146 acres of land, yieldingabout 124 acres of developable land. With 15 dwelling units peracre in this lower density class, a total of 1,862 dwelling unitscould be created, which would accommodate approximately4,430 people.

Class 1 limited vacant parcel selection for infill development toareas: within about 2.86 miles of the CBD; with a ranking ofseven or higher for proximity to employment centers; with acombined mixed use opportunity of six or better or wheremultifamily residential development was rated highly; whereparcels were classified as vacant acreage, vacant commercial,vacant condominium, vacant commercial condominium, vacantresidential, or vacant townhome; and within 1.5 miles of amajor interstate intersection. Class 1 contains about 374 acresof land, yielding about 317 acres of developable land. With 65dwelling units per acre in this very high density class, a total of20,664 dwelling units could be created, which wouldaccommodate approximately 49,179 people.

Class 2 limited vacant parcel selection for infill development toareas: within about 4.29 miles of the CBD; with a ranking of fiveor higher for proximity to employment centers; where parcelswere classified as vacant acreage, vacant commercial, vacantcondominium, vacant commercial condominium, vacantresidential, or vacant townhome; and between 1.5 and 3.0 milesof a major interstate intersection. Class 2 contains about 406acres of land, yielding about 345 acres of developable land.With 55 dwelling units per acre in this high density class, a totalof 18,981 could be created, which would accommodateapproximately 45,174 people.

Class 3 limited vacant parcel selection for infill development toareas: between about 2.86 and 5.72 miles of the CBD; with aranking of five or higher for proximity to employment centers;with a mixed use opportunity that was anything other than 111,311, or 113; where parcels were classified as vacant acreage,vacant condominium, vacant commercial condominium, vacantresidential, or vacant townhome; where classification forproximity to schools was at least four; and outside of 2 milesfrom a major interstate intersection. Class 3 contains about 479acres of land, yielding about 407 acres of developable land.With 35 dwelling units per acre in this moderate density class, atotal of 14,250 dwelling units could be created, which wouldaccommodate approximately 33,916 people.

Class 5 limited vacant parcel selection for infill development toareas: within about 4.29 miles of the CBD; with a ranking of sixor higher for proximity to employment centers; where parcelswere classified as vacant industrial or vacant professional park;and within 2.0 miles of a major interstate intersection. Class 5contains about 218 acres of land, yielding about 185 acres ofdevelopable land. With 35 dwelling units per acre in thismoderate density class, a total of 6,486 dwelling units could becreated, which would accommodate approximately 15,435people.

Class 6 limited vacant parcel selection for infill development toareas: outside of about 5.71 miles of the CBD; with a ranking offour or higher for proximity to employment centers; with amixed use opportunity that was anything other than 111, 311,or 113; where parcels were classified as vacant acreage, vacantcondominium, vacant commercial condominium, vacantresidential, or vacant townhome; and where classification forproximity to schools was at least five. Class 6 contains about9261 acres of land, yielding about 7871 acres of developableland. With 4 dwelling units per acre in this low density class, atotal of 31,487 dwelling units could be created, which wouldaccommodate approximately 74,940 people.

Classification 1 – Very High Density

Classification 2 – High Density

Classification 3 – Moderate Density

Classification 5 – Moderate Density

Classification 4 – Lower Density Classification 6 – Low Density

High Density ScenarioComposite Map