hiroshi komiyama

18
Hiroshi Komiyama Chairman of the Institute, Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc., President emeritus, University of Tokyo TBLI CONFERENCE TM ASIA2011 15 September 2011 he Revitalization for Japa The Platinum society

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Page 1: Hiroshi komiyama

Hiroshi Komiyama Chairman of the Institute, Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc., Japan

President emeritus, University of Tokyo

TBLI CONFERENCETM ASIA2011 15   September   2011

The Revitalization for Japan

- The Platinum society -

Page 2: Hiroshi komiyama

Saturation of artifacts is the key concept

No. of automobiles

( million )

No. of automobiles per population

Japan 58 0.45USA 138 0.45Britain 31 0.51France 31 0.50Germany 41 0.49China 32 0.02India 13 0.01

Source : Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications

Number of automobile ownership ( 2007 )

Page 3: Hiroshi komiyama

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

[ton/

]一

人当

たり

セメ

ント

生産

量人

J apanChinaUSAFrance

Saturation will come in 2 ~ 10 years in China  Production of cement per person

Pro

du

ctio

n o

f C

emen

t p

er p

erso

n [

ton

]

Source : Production of Cement : UN Statistical year book

Population : UNSD Demographic Statistics

Page 4: Hiroshi komiyama

Automobile energy consumption to 1/10 at 2050

Vehicle Weight [kg]Data Source: Yahoo! Japan Autos

Fu

el C

onsu

mp

tion

[L

/km

]

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

US/European CarsJapanese Cars

Hybrid Cars

Electric & Fuel cells Cars

Energy efficiency is secondly important!

Page 5: Hiroshi komiyama

1960 1970 1980 1990Year

USDenmarkBelgiumFranceSweden

Source: Japan Cement Association

Japan

Ener

gy C

onsu

mpti

on p

er to

n

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

0

6,000(MJ/t)

theoretical value

Technology transfer can reduce emission

Cement

Investment for energy efficiency can be refunded!

Energy efficiency improvement by 3 times is feasible.

Page 6: Hiroshi komiyama

Energy Scenario and CO2

a)  19906.0G C-ton

1.5G

b)  2050 BAU case

c)  Vision 2050

d)  After 22nd Century

1.5G

22.0G C-ton

3.0G

Fossil resources

Non- Fossil resources

Data: from “Vision 2050”

CO2 369 ppm

CO2 600 ppm

CO2  460 ppm

CO2  280 ppm

4.5G C-ton

22nd century will be bright!

Page 7: Hiroshi komiyama

ManufacturingDaily life

Home 

Transportation

Office

ⒸHiroshi Komiyama

Energy consumption by final use in Japan

Theoretical limit of transportation is zero!

Page 8: Hiroshi komiyama

Energy consumption in houses and offices

エネルギー・経済統計要覧 2009年版より

Air-conditioner 28%

Water heating  30%

others 24%

kitchen 8%

lighting 10%

Offices 50%: air-conditioner20%: lighting

Theoretical limit of air-conditioning is zero!

Houses

Page 9: Hiroshi komiyama

Water Heater 

Heat-pump (Ecocute)50%×4=200% 

     Fuel cell  (Enefarm)  45% elec. + 40% hot water

Technology innovation in Japan

Page 10: Hiroshi komiyama

Komiyama ecohouse : using existing technologies!

81% reductionInvestment refunded in 12 years

Solar panel : 3.6 k W

Heat-pump water heater

Insulation : K=1.6 W/m2K

New air-conditioner

Ⓒ 小宮山 宏

Hybrid car : 22.6km/l

New refrigerator & lightings

Page 11: Hiroshi komiyama

ENERGY        70%  

FOOD       70%  

WOOD        100%  

Self-Sufficiency in Japan at 2050  

ⒸHiroshi Komiyama

WATER 100%

Komiyama’s Proposal

Japanese goal as well as 21st model of humanity

MINERAL       70%  

Page 12: Hiroshi komiyama

present

東京屋形船案内http://www.t-yakata.com/tyh_dkship.htm

1967

環境省 図で見る環境白書 昭和57年http://www.env.go.jp/policy/hakusyo/zu/eav11/eav110000000000.html

Japan’s experience with Sumida river

Page 13: Hiroshi komiyama

Japan’s experience with Kitakyusyu

Source : Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world P27

Page 14: Hiroshi komiyama

0.2

4.9

3.4

0.8

3.1

0.7

1.4

3.3

0.2

0.6

3.2

0.8

1.2

1.4

1.6

4.0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

日本

中国

カナダ

イタリア

フランス

ドイツ

イギリス

アメリカ

SOx NOx g/ W ]発電量あたりの ・ 発生量[ k h

NOxSOx

Source:http://www.tepco.co.jp/eco/report/lcl/01_2-j.html

http://www.braincoal.info/news_images/20100206ccs_yamada.pdf

Japan :2008

China :2000

Others :2005

Emission of Sulfur and Nitrogen  from Thermal Power Plants

        SOx , NOx  [ g/kW h]

U.S.

U.K.

Germany

France

Italy

Canada

Japan

China

Page 15: Hiroshi komiyama

Shrinking earth

Aging society

Eco houseEco applianceEco carSolar panelWind mill

Barrier free building Health monitoringSafe mobility Senses supporting

Green & silver & golden growth  

Exploding knowledge

Structuring knowledgeStructured knowledge- baseEducationLifelong learningValue creation

ⒸHiroshi Komiyama

Page 16: Hiroshi komiyama

ecological  

participation by all including seniors  lifelong learning  

abundant in job opportunities

sustainable societycreated by green, silver, gold and various innovations

Platinum society is a vision of the 21st century  

Page 17: Hiroshi komiyama

Platinum Network As of 2011,2/28

Tokyo wards

Governor joinsMayor joins

ⒸHiroshi Komiyama

Page 18: Hiroshi komiyama

Join in the quest for a platinum society

ⒸHiroshi Komiyama

Thank you