hispanic communities of central florida: economic contributions to the region

Hispanic Communities of Hispanic Communities of Central Florida:Central Florida:

Economic Contributions Economic Contributions to the Region to the Region

Hank Fishkind, Ph.D.Fishkind & Associates, Inc.12051 Corporate Boulevard

Orlando, Florida 32817

04/19/2304/19/23 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 22

OverviewOverview

What is the economic outlook for the U.S. through 2009?

What is the economic outlook for the region through 2009?

What are the impacts and contributions of the Hispanic Communities on the Region?

What is our expectation for Osceola County moving into the future?


U.S. Forecast Summary 2006 – 2009U.S. Forecast Summary 2006 – 2009 2006Q3-2007Q1 – low point of cycle

• Housing slowdown • High energy prices• Inventory correction

2007 Soft Landing/below trend growth• Housing bubble deflates• Strong consumption and a weak dollar

prop up the economy 2008 recovery and strong growth 2009 Main forecast risk – energy price spike


RECENT TRENDS IN GDP RECENT TRENDS IN GDP AND INFLATIONAND INFLATION

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

GDP INFLATION


GROWTH IN REAL GDPGROWTH IN REAL GDPININ BILLIONS OF 2000$BILLIONS OF 2000$

-40.00

10.00

60.00

110.00

q405 q106 q206 q306 q406 q107

Cons Inv Ch Inv. Net Ex Govt


GROWTH IN PAYROLL GROWTH IN PAYROLL EMPLOYMENTEMPLOYMENT

0

50100

150

200

250300

350

400

178 166 133


Consumer Confidence IndexConsumer Confidence IndexUniversity of Michigan 1966=100University of Michigan 1966=100

70

75

80

85

90

95

100


U.S. HOUSING STARTSU.S. HOUSING STARTSAnnual Rate in MillionsAnnual Rate in Millions

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20


Oil Prices – Acquisition Cost for Oil Prices – Acquisition Cost for U.S. RefinersU.S. Refiners

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


INTEREST RATES INTEREST RATES

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

Fed Funds 10-Year Mortgage


GDP AND INFLATIONGDP AND INFLATION(Percent growth SAAR)(Percent growth SAAR)

0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.00

GDP INFLATION


Employment Growth By MSAEmployment Growth By MSA000s of Jobs last 12 months000s of Jobs last 12 months

13.1

40.3

29.235.9

19.215.4

Jax Orl Tampa Miami Ft. Laud W Palm

Demographic Trends & Demographic Trends & Migration PatternsMigration Patterns

Implications for Florida’s Population Growth


Florida’s Population GrowthFlorida’s Population GrowthComponent 2000-06 Per Year % TotalTotal 2,107,064 351,177 100.00%Births-Deaths 282,347 47,058 13.40%Net Migration: Foreign 642,188 107,031 30.48% Other States 1,221,540 203,590 57.97%

Growth depends on net migration• 87% growth net migration• 58% growth from net migration from other states

Growth averaged 351,177 per year 2000-06 Migration from other U.S. states averaged 203,590 No evidence of slowdown in data for 2004-05 the latest

available information from IRS tax records


Where do Florida’s Migrants Where do Florida’s Migrants Come From? 2000-2006Come From? 2000-2006

Domestic Migration1. New York2. New Jersey3. Illinois4. Ohio5. Pennsylvania6. Georgia7. Michigan8. California9. Massachusetts10. Virginia

Foreign Migration1. Venezuela2. Puerto Rico3. Haiti4. Argentina5. Brazil6. Mexico7. United Kingdom8. Chile9. Canada10. Germany


U.S. Census ProjectionsU.S. Census ProjectionsPopulation 2010 to 2030Population 2010 to 2030

Florida is predicted to be the fastest growing state through 2030.

Growth will average 472,000 per year.

Probably too optimistic.

But, Florida will likely lead the U.S.

Demographics and in particular the aging of the baby boomers provides the thrust.

State 2010 2030 Growth Per Year

Florida 19,252 28,686 9,434 472California 38,067 46,445 8,378 419Texas 24,649 33,318 8,669 433Arizona 6,637 10,712 4,075 204North Carolina 9,346 12,228 2,882 144Georgia 9,589 12,018 2,429 121Virginia 8,010 9,825 1,815 91Washington 6,542 8,625 2,083 104Nevada 2,691 4,282 1,592 80Maryland 5,905 7,022 1,117 56

Census Forecast figures in 000s


Orange County GrowthOrange County GrowthPopulation & EmploymentPopulation & Employment

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Population Employment


Orange County Existing Homes

$270,000

$280,000

$290,000

$300,000

$310,000

$320,000

$330,000

$340,000

Aug-05

Oct

-05

Dec-0

5

Feb-0

6

Apr-06

Jun-0

6

Aug-06

Oct

-06

Dec-0

6

Feb-0

7

Apr-07

800

1,300

1,800

2,300

2,800

Value Sales


Orange County GrowthOrange County GrowthHouseholds v. StartsHouseholds v. Starts

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Single Multi Households


Orange County Orange County Hispanic Population GrowthHispanic Population Growth

103,836105,274

31,022

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1990 to 2000 2000 to 2007 2007 to 2009


Orange County Orange County Hispanic StudentsHispanic Students

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

His

pani

c S

tude

nt R

atio

15.0%

15.5%

16.0%

16.5%

17.0%

17.5%

Stu

dent

s to

Pop

ulat

ion

Rat

io

Hispanic Students All Students


Orange CountyOrange CountyHispanic Students per HouseholdHispanic Students per Household

0.76 Students per Hispanic Household 0.38 Students per non-Hispanic Household

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

2003 2004 2005 2006

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

Households Hispanic Growth


Seminole County New Homes

$270,000

$280,000

$290,000

$300,000

$310,000

$320,000

$330,000

$340,000

$350,000

Aug-05

Oct

-05

Dec-0

5

Feb-0

6

Apr-06

Jun-0

6

Aug-06

Oct

-06

Dec-0

6

Feb-0

7

Apr-07

50

100

150

200

250

300

Value Sales


Seminole County Seminole County Hispanic Population GrowthHispanic Population Growth

21,39221,973

5,666

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1990 to 2000 2000 to 2007 2007 to 2009


Seminole County Seminole County Hispanic StudentsHispanic Students

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

His

pani

c S

tude

nt R

atio

15.0%

15.5%

16.0%

16.5%

17.0%

17.5%

Stu

dent

s to

Pop

ulat

ion

Rat

io



Seminole CountySeminole CountyHispanic Students per HouseholdHispanic Students per Household


2,9003,0003,1003,2003,3003,4003,5003,6003,7003,8003,900

2003 2004 2005 2006

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%



Osceola County GrowthOsceola County GrowthPopulation & EmploymentPopulation & Employment

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009



Osceola County New Homes

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

$300,000

$320,000

$340,000

$360,000

Aug-05

Oct

-05

Dec-0

5

Feb-0

6

Apr-06

Jun-0

6

Aug-06

Oct

-06

Dec-0

6

Feb-0

7

Apr-07

225275325375425475525575625675

Value Sales


Osceola CountyOsceola CountyHousehold Growth v. StartsHousehold Growth v. Starts

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Single-family Multifamily Households


Osceola County Osceola County Hispanic Population GrowthHispanic Population Growth

11,735

37,914

54,417

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1990 to 2000 2000 to 2007 2007 to 2009


Osceola County Osceola County Hispanic StudentsHispanic Students

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

His

pani

c S

tude

nt R

atio

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

19.0%

20.0%

21.0%

22.0%

Stu

dent

s to

Pop

ulat

ion

Rat

io



Osceola CountyOsceola CountyHispanic Students per HouseholdHispanic Students per Household


0

1,0002,000

3,000

4,000

5,0006,000

7,000

8,000

2003 2004 2005 2006

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%



Lake County New Homes

$200,000$220,000$240,000$260,000$280,000

$300,000$320,000$340,000$360,000

Aug-05

Oct

-05

Dec-0

5

Feb-0

6

Apr-06

Jun-0

6

Aug-06

Oct

-06

Dec-0

6

Feb-0

7

Apr-07

100150200250300350400450500550600

Value Sales


Lake County Lake County Hispanic Population GrowthHispanic Population Growth

3,068

7,654

13,089

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1990 to 2000 2000 to 2007 2007 to 2009


Lake County Lake County Hispanic StudentsHispanic Students

0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%

His

pani

c S

tude

nt R

atio

13.0%

13.5%

14.0%

14.5%

15.0%

Stu

dent

s to

Pop

ulat

ion

Rat

io



Lake CountyLake CountyHispanic Students per HouseholdHispanic Students per Household


3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

4,200

4,400

4,600

2003 2004 2005 2006

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%



Volusia County New Homes

$180,000$200,000$220,000$240,000$260,000$280,000$300,000$320,000$340,000$360,000

Aug-05

Oct

-05

Dec-0

5

Feb-0

6

Apr-06

Jun-0

6

Aug-06

Oct

-06

Dec-0

6

Feb-0

7

Apr-07

0

50100

150200

250300

350

Value Sales


Volusia County Volusia County Hispanic Population GrowthHispanic Population Growth

3,973

14,443

16,600

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1990 to 2000 2000 to 2007 2007 to 2009


Volusia County Volusia County Hispanic StudentsHispanic Students

0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%

His

pani

c S

tude

nt R

atio

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

14.0%

14.5%

15.0%

Stu

dent

s to

Pop

ulat

ion

Rat

io



Volusia CountyVolusia CountyHispanic Students per HouseholdHispanic Students per Household


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2003 2004 2005 2006

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%



Brevard County New Homes

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

$300,000

Aug-05

Oct

-05

Dec-0

5

Feb-0

6

Apr-06

Jun-0

6

Aug-06

Oct

-06

Dec-0

6

Feb-0

7

Apr-07

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Value Sales


Brevard County Brevard County Hispanic Population GrowthHispanic Population Growth

3,006

9,691

11,899

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1990 to 2000 2000 to 2007 2007 to 2009


Brevard County Brevard County Hispanic StudentsHispanic Students

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%

His

pani

c S

tude

nt R

atio

13.0%

13.5%

14.0%

14.5%

15.0%

Stu

dent

s to

Pop

ulat

ion

Rat

io



Brevard CountyBrevard CountyHispanic Students per HouseholdHispanic Students per Household


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2003 2004 2005 2006

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%



Polk County GrowthPolk County GrowthPopulation and EmploymentPopulation and Employment

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009



Polk County New Homes

$160,000

$180,000$200,000

$220,000$240,000

$260,000

$280,000$300,000

$320,000

Aug-05

Oct

-05

Dec-0

5

Feb-0

6

Apr-06

Jun-0

6

Aug-06

Oct

-06

Dec-0

6

Feb-0

7

Apr-07

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

Value Sales


Polk County Housing StartsPolk County Housing Starts

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Single-family Multifamily Households


Polk County Polk County Hispanic Population GrowthHispanic Population Growth

33,690

30,741

8,098

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1990 to 2000 2000 to 2007 2007 to 2009


Polk County Polk County Hispanic StudentsHispanic Students

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

His

pani

c S

tude

nt R

atio

16.0%16.1%16.2%16.3%16.4%16.5%16.6%16.7%16.8%16.9%

Stu

dent

s to

Pop

ulat

ion

Rat

io



Polk CountyPolk CountyHispanic Students per HouseholdHispanic Students per Household


-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2003 2004 2005 2006

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%



Hispanic Population Growth

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1990 to 2000 2000 to 2007 2007 to 2009

Years

Orlando MSA Central Florida


Hispanic Purchasing PowerHispanic Purchasing Power

$8,016

$7,137

$4,321

$10,539

$9,402

$5,711

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000

2000Purchasing Power

2007 Purchasing Power

2009 Purchasing Power

Billions of Dollars



Hispanic Spending by GoodsHispanic Spending by Goods

$997

$2,468

$409

$1,464

$298 $253

$1,314

$3,252

$538

$1,928

$393 $333

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

Food Housing Apparel andservices

Transportation Healthcare Entertainment

Mil

lio

ns

of

Do

llar

s



Future Outlook:Future Outlook:Will Osceola County Remain a Will Osceola County Remain a

Bedroom Community?Bedroom Community? Osceola County has experienced

tremendous growth in its Hispanic populations.

Income growth has been high as well.

Will Osceola County become a major employment center for the region?


Employment in Orlando MSAEmployment in Orlando MSA

6.8%

66.0%

9.0%

18.2%

Osceola County Orange County Lake County Seminole County


Orlando Employment by IndustryOrlando Employment by Industry(Orange County not shown)(Orange County not shown)

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Osceola Lake Seminole


1990 Employment in the 1990 Employment in the Dallas – Forth Worth CMSADallas – Forth Worth CMSA

6.75%

83.78%

5.71% 1.96%1.23% 0.57%

Collin County Dallas County Denton CountyEllis County Kaufman County Rockwall County


1990 Dallas – Forth Worth 1990 Dallas – Forth Worth Employment by IndustryEmployment by Industry

(Dallas County not shown)(Dallas County not shown)

0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%

10.00%12.00%

Collin County, Texas Denton County, Texas Ellis County, TexasKaufman County, Texas Rockwall County, Texas


Dallas – Forth WorthDallas – Forth WorthPopulation Growth 1990 - 2000Population Growth 1990 - 2000

0.0%

25.0%

50.0%

75.0%

100.0%

125.0%

150.0%

175.0%

200.0%

225.0%

250.0%

CollinCounty

DallasCounty

DentonCounty

EllisCounty

KaufmanCounty

RockwallCounty

Dallas -Fort Worth

CMSA

Total Population Hispanic Population


2000 Dallas – Forth Worth 2000 Dallas – Forth Worth Employment by IndustryEmployment by Industry

(Dallas County not shown)(Dallas County not shown)

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

Collin County, Texas Denton County, Texas Ellis County, Texas

Kaufman County, Texas Rockwall County, Texas


Osceola will Remain a Bedroom Osceola will Remain a Bedroom CommunityCommunity

Differences that will help Osceola County:• Champions Gate• New development at, and around, the I-4 &

S. R. 519 interchange Osceola County needs to take

advantage these opportunities, with their accompanying employment.

hispanic communities of central florida: economic contributions to the region

Documents

refinersfishkind associates

millionsfishkind associates

startsfishkind associates

monthsfishkind associates

inflationfishkind associates

rates fishkind associates

employment growth

strong growth