Hispanic Trends Project

The Nation’s Changing DemographicsMark Hugo LopezDirector of Hispanic Research

October 2014

Hispanics are the Nation’s Largest Minority

GroupPopulation in millions

The New Face of America

Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey

68%11%

13%5%

Ages 25 or olderAsian

Hispanic

Black

White

The New Face of America

Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey

57%14%

20%

5%

Ages 18-24

68%11%

13%5%

Ages 25 or olderAsian

Hispanic

Black

Asian

Hispanic

BlackWhite White

The New Face of America

Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey

55%

14%

22%

4%

Ages 6-17Asian

Hispanic

Black White

The New Face of America

Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey

51%

14%

25%

5%

Ages 0-5

55%

14%

22%

4%

Ages 6-17Asian

Hispanic

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Black White White

87% 85% 83% 80% 76%70% 67% 65% 60% 56% 52% 47%

10% 11% 11%12%

12%13% 13% 13%

13%13%

14%13%

13%

5%9%6%4%3%

16% 19%23% 26%

29%

14%

9%8%7%6%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

White* Black* Hispanic Asian*

Hispanic Share Rises to 29% by 2050

Source: Pew Research Center population estimates & projections (2008). *Not Hispanic.

Percent of Total Population

Four Decades of Growth

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

50.5

35

2215

4.0

57

128

105

0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Middle "Baseline" Immigration

Hispanic Growth Likely to Continue

(Largest “Minority” Since ~2001)Population in millions

Geographic Distribution of Hispanics

Population in millions

Geographic Distribution of Hispanics

Population in millions

Hispanic Origin Composition, 2010

4%

34%

62%

13%

16%

65%

3% 21%

21%

12%

31%

39%

33%

16%

7% 78%

6%

9%

7%

27%

6%

54%

Atlanta

Los Angeles

New York

Washington

Miami

U.S.

Salvadoran Mexican Puerto Rican Cuban Dominican Other

Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from the 2010 American Community Survey.

Hispanic Population is Younger

Native-Born Hispanics are Younger

Three Great Waves of Immigrants (% of total)

Notes: Immigrants from Canada and other areas not shown.Sources: Pew Research Center analysis of Integrated Public Use Microdata Samples for 1980,1990, and 2000 Censuses and 2008 American Community Survey. 1840-1919 numbers from Table 2 of Yearbook of Immigration Statistics,2008. Office of Immigration Statistics.

88

88

12

1

3

50

2

3

28

Northern Europe Wave,1840-1889

Southern/Eastern EuropeWave,1890-1919

Modern Wave,1965-Present

European Latin American Asian

(14 million)

(18 million)

(40 million+)

Where Each State’s Largest Immigrant Population Was Born, 1910

Where Each State’s Largest Immigrant Population Was Born, 2010

From Germany to Mexico, 1850 to 2010

The Share of U.S. Hispanics Who Are Foreign Born is in

Decline …

Source: Pew Research Center.

Unauthorizedimmigrant children0

10

20

30

40

50

60

38.7

47.554.0 55.0

49.8

28.335.7

40.1 39.835.5

%

All Hispan-ics

Hispanic adults

1980 1990 2000 2012

Sources of Hispanic Population Growth, by Decade

Source: Pew Research Center.

Unauthorizedimmigrant children

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

3.1

4.4

7.0

9.6

3.1

5.6

8.1

6.5

U.S. births Immigration

School Enrollments

Hispanic Student Enrollments

In 2012, 13 million young Latinos were enrolled in nursery school to high school public institutionsThat is up 58% from 2000 when 8.2 million Latinos were enrolledAmong 18-24 year olds, 2.4 million Latinos were enrolled in college full time, up 175% since 2000 when there were 873,000 Latino students in college full time.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Historical School Enrollment time series http://www.census.gov/hhes/school/data/cps/historical/index.html

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of the October 2012 Current Population Survey (CPS)

Racial and Ethnic Composition of Public Schools by Grade, 2012

(%)

All

Nursery school

KindergartenElementary

schoolHigh school

51.112821006

0594

44.912152269

399745.901194353

96351.568725933

366852.547121752

4198

24.986053669

3277

28.587115666

178627.388707926

167225.334003013

56123.134233316

3525

15.821871693

7578

18.887262079

06316.232356134

636315.345722417

545616.097809475

2929

8.0792536308

5506

7.6134699853

587110.477741585

23357.7515486355

26538.2208354559

3479

White Hispanic Black Other

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of the October Current Population Survey (CPS)

Growing Hispanic Representation in Public Schools and Colleges

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 20120

5

10

15

20

25 25

19Pre-K through 12th-grade public school enrollment, ages 3 and older

College enrollment, ages18-24

%Hispanic share of enrollment

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2012 American Community Survey and the 2000 decennial census (1% IPUMS)

Hispanic Children Are a Growing Share of Public Kindergarten

ClassesStates where 20% or more of kindergartners are Hispanic

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of the October Current Population Survey (CPS)

College Enrollment Rates Among High School Completers

(% of 18- to 24-year-old high school completers)

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

454749

61.466

Black

Asian

White

Hispanic

2012

Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the October 2013 Current Population Survey (CPS)

Hispanics Now Largest Minority Group at Colleges and

Universities(millions of 18- to 24-year-old students)

2-year college (community) 4-year college or university0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1.8

5.3

0.9 1.30.5

1.00.2

0.8

Hispanic Undergraduates are More Likely to Enroll at 2-year Institutions than Other

Groups

Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the October 2013 Current Population Survey (CPS)

Hisp White Black Asian

58%

74%69%

77%

42%

26%31%

23%

4-year college or university

Latino Youth are Optimistic…

50%

72%

45%

22% 4%

Most aresatisfied with

their lives

and mostexpect to be

better offfiancially than

parents

Source: 2009 National Survey of Latinos

Very Satisfied Mostly Satisfied

Better offAboutthe same

Lesswell off

Percent of Latino 16 to 25 year olds

…And They Say A College Education Is

Important

88%

74%

89%

82%

All Latinos ages 16and older

General populationages 16 and older

Latinos ages 16 to25

General populationages 16 to 25

In order to get ahead in life these days, it’s necessary to get a college education.

Percent who agree

Source: 2009 National Survey of Latinos for Latino sample; 2009 SDT America’s Changing Workforce Survey for general U.S. population

…Yet Educational Expectations Lag

48%

12%

6%

4%

22%18%

60%

4%

9%

5%

Bachelor's degree orhigher

Some college/2 years

Technical or tradeschool

Finish high school

No further

Latinos General population

How much further in school do you plan to go?

Among 18- to 25-year-olds

Source: 2009 National Survey of Latinos for Latino sample; 2007 Generation Next Survey for all youth sample

What's at Stake?

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, National Population Projections, Released 2008

58%

38%

20%

39%

15% 11%4% 6%

% of School-age Population

NH white Hispanic NH black NH asian

Hispanics Projected to be the Largest School-age Population by

2050

Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of October Current Population Surveys (CPS)

Hispanic Educational Attainment,1990 to 2013

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

8.18.9

9.711.2

13.5

15.7

All Hispanics

(% of 25 to 29 year olds with bachelor’s degree or higher)

Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of October Current Population Surveys (CPS)

Hispanic Educational Attainment,1990 to 2013

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

7.3 7.8 8.310.2 10.8

13.19.1

10.111

12.4

16.818.6

Hispanic Women

Hispanic Men

(% of 25- to- 29-year olds with bachelor’s degree or higher)

Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the October 2013 Current Population Survey (CPS)

Educational Attainment of 25- to 29-year-olds, 2013

Hispanic NH White NH Black NH Asian

16

39

20

59

(% with bachelor’s degree or higher)

Why Not Continue Your Education?

74%

49%

42%

40%

39%

21%

Need to support family

English skills are limited

Didn't like school

Can't afford to go on in school

Don't need more education

Grades not high enough

Which of the following are reasons you have not continued your education?

Percent of Latino youth ages 16 to 25 with a high school diploma or less, who are not enrolled and have no plans to return to school saying “Yes”

Source: 2009 National Survey of Latinos

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Characteristics by Race and Ethnicity, 2011 and ANew Look at Long-term Labor Force Projections to 2050

Civilian Labor Force, 2011 and Projected 2050

Total Hispanic NH White Black Asian0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2011 2050(in thousands)

40-year Work-life Earnings by Education

for Hispanic Full-time, Full-year Workers

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Education and Synthetic Work-Life Earnings Estimates, September 2011

Male Female9 - 12th grade 1.1 0.8High School completer 1.3 1.0Some college 1.7 1.3Associate's degree 1.8 1.4Bachelor's degree 2.1 1.7Master's degree 2.8 2.3Professional degree 3.1 2.3Doctorate degree 3.1 2.6

In millions of $

Contact InformationMark Hugo LopezDirector of Hispanic Researchmlopez@pewresearch.org

Hispanic Trends Project