HIST2086Bismarck: The Iron Chancellor

Bismarck’s foreign policy, 1871-9

Lecture 17

11 November 2010

5 Options for Bismarck

• Revitalising Three Emperors’ League: G + A + R

• Forging strong alliance + partnership with R

• Provide imperialist-colonialist compensations for F + R outside EU

• Making war with F to reach G’s hegemony in EU

• Balance between + with 5 big powers → Strategy of alliances

3 Phases

• Phase 1: Three Emperors’ League + war scare, 1871-75

• Phase 2: Balkan Crisis + Congress of Berlin + Dual Alliance, 1876-9

• Phase 3: Three-Emperors’ Alliance / Triple Alliance + Colonial policy + Bulgarian Crisis + Reinsurance Treaty, 1881-87

Three Emperors’ League, Oct 1873

• No revival of Holy Alliance of 1815

• No block formation of G, R, A

= More rivalries than common interests:

• Bismarck (G): To keep F in check

• Gorchakov (R): To keep G weak

• Andrássy (A): To keep G + R apart

War scare, 1875 (1)

• France’s strong efforts to re-militarize:→ Bismarck’s offer to Russia for political

deal, 1875:► G’s support of R’s Balkan ambitions► R’s support of G’s France policy of isolation

→To outmanoeuvre pro-French R Gorchakov→ To separate R from F

► Gorchakov: Unwilling to give up ‘French option’ = Rising pressure on Germany

War scare, 1875 (2)

Bismarck’s reaction, spring 1875:

• Threatened with preventive war to break-up G’s ‘encirclement’ + launched ‘Is War in Sight?’ press article

• Sent calculated alarm signals to put pressure on + to intimidate F, R, A

• Predicted a ‘Catholic League’ vs. ‘Protestant Germany’ to win support in G public

War scare, 1875 (3)

Reactions:

• F: No halt of militarization program

• R: No separation from but closer contacts to F + de-facto guarantee for F

= Major defeat of Bismarck

= Irreparable break Bismarck ≠ Gorchakov

= Consolidation of R’s hegemony position in Europe

War scare, 1875 (4)Consequences for Bismarck: He had to …

• Accept political-territorial realities in Europe

• Recognize 1871 status quo as base of policies of R, A, F

• Relinquish unsuccessful tactic of terrorizing + hitting isolated enemies

• Escape ‘encirclement’ not by intimidation + war but by defence + alliance

• Look for alliance partners vs. R’s hegemony

Balkan Crisis, 1875-8 (1)

Revolt of Christian peasants in Bosnia-Herzegovina + Bulgaria vs. OE rule:

• R: Strong Pan-Slavistic ambitions + wish to ally with Serbia’s war vs. OE

• A: Strong opposition to R’s expansionism on Balkan

• G: Strong fear to be forced to opt for R or A + to break-up Three Emperors’ League

Balkan Crisis, 1875-8 (2)

Bismarck’s reactions:

• Provocative strategy: To test R’s readiness to agree on political deal: Unsuccessful → R + A consensus over R’s war on OE

• Compensation strategy: To compensate other powers with parts of OE + to keep Three Emperors’ League intact

• Honest-broker-strategy: To circumvent G’s alliance decision for R or A

Congress of Berlin, Jun-Jul 1878

To revise San Stefano Treaty of Russia-OE: A’s fears of R’s expansionism + GB’s military support of A ► R’s agreement for conference

= R: Agreed to divide Great-Bulgaria into 3 parts

= OE: Promised domestic reforms

= GB: Supported A’s claim to occupy Bosnia-Herzegovina + guaranteed OE’s security in exchange for island of Cyprus

Balkan Crisis, 1875-8 (4)

Results of Congress of Berlin:

→ R’s humiliating diplomatic defeat + long-lasting anger about Bismarck + Germany

→ Definite end of Three Emperors’ League

→ Dual Alliance of G + A, 1879

= Bismarck’s image as ‘honest broker’ not correct due to his own interest not to opt for either A or R

Dual Alliance G-A, Oct 1879 (1)Bismarck’s reasons:

• R regarded as Slavophil + Francophile: No secure partner for G

• Saw A as major partner to fight G’s encirclement

• Regarded as first step to renewed Three Emperors’ League

= To improve G’s position vs. R by making A a junior partner

= To pave way into more stable Three Emperors’ League connected by mutual alliances

Dual Alliance, Oct 1879 (2)

• Committed G + A to resist R’s aggression• To join war only after R’s attack on G or A

= Cornerstone + ‘landmark’ of G’s foreign policy, 1879-1918

= Unusual strong commitment during peace times

= Stimulated similar treaties until Europe’s pre-1914 division in alliances + counter-alliances