historic linepack usage
DESCRIPTION
Historic Linepack Usage. Review Group 291 – May 2010. Historic Closing Linepack. New pipelines. Closing Linepack – last two years. Seasonal variation with demand. Clsoing linepack variation with demand. Closing linepack and residual balancing trades. Closing linepack and aggregate trades. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Historic Linepack Usage
Review Group 291 – May 2010
Historic Closing Linepack
Closing Linepack, Oct 2002 to April 2010
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
01/1
0/20
02
01/0
4/20
03
01/1
0/20
03
01/0
4/20
04
01/1
0/20
04
01/0
4/20
05
01/1
0/20
05
01/0
4/20
06
01/1
0/20
06
01/0
4/20
07
01/1
0/20
07
01/0
4/20
08
01/1
0/20
08
01/0
4/20
09
01/1
0/20
09
01/0
4/20
10
mcm
New pipelines
Closing Linepack – last two years
CLP, 10 May 2008 to 16 May 2010
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
37010
/05/
2008
10/0
7/20
08
10/0
9/20
08
10/1
1/20
08
10/0
1/20
09
10/0
3/20
09
10/0
5/20
09
10/0
7/20
09
10/0
9/20
09
10/1
1/20
09
10/0
1/20
10
10/0
3/20
10
10/0
5/20
10
mcm
Seasonal variation with demand
CLP and demand
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
10/0
5/20
08
10/0
7/20
08
10/0
9/20
08
10/1
1/20
08
10/0
1/20
09
10/0
3/20
09
10/0
5/20
09
10/0
7/20
09
10/0
9/20
09
10/1
1/20
09
10/0
1/20
10
10/0
3/20
10
10/0
5/20
10
mcm
CLP
demand
Clsoing linepack variation with demand
demand and CLP, 10 May 2008 to 16 May 2010
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
demand, mcm
CL
P,
mcm
Closing linepack and residual balancing trades
CLP and residual balancing trade volume
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
37010
/05/
2008
10/0
7/20
08
10/0
9/20
08
10/1
1/20
08
10/0
1/20
09
10/0
3/20
09
10/0
5/20
09
10/0
7/20
09
10/0
9/20
09
10/1
1/20
09
10/0
1/20
10
10/0
3/20
10
10/0
5/20
10
CL
P,
mcm
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
res
bal
tra
de
vol,
mcm
trade volume CLP
Closing linepack and aggregate trades
CLP and aggregate residual balancing trade volume
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
45010
/05/
2008
10/0
7/20
08
10/0
9/20
08
10/1
1/20
08
10/0
1/20
09
10/0
3/20
09
10/0
5/20
09
10/0
7/20
09
10/0
9/20
09
10/1
1/20
09
10/0
1/20
10
10/0
3/20
10
10/0
5/20
10
CL
P,
mcm
-400
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
agg
reg
ate
res
bal
tra
de
vol,
mcm
CLP aggregate trade volume
Predicted closing linepack - midnight day-ahead
CLP and 00:00 D-1 PCLP
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
41010
/05/
2008
10/0
7/20
08
10/0
9/20
08
10/1
1/20
08
10/0
1/20
09
10/0
3/20
09
10/0
5/20
09
10/0
7/20
09
10/0
9/20
09
10/1
1/20
09
10/0
1/20
10
10/0
3/20
10
10/0
5/20
10
mcm
CLP
00:00 D-1 PCLP
PCLP – start of the gas day
CLP and 06:00 D PCLP
270.00
290.00
310.00
330.00
350.00
370.00
390.00
410.00
10/0
5/20
08
10/0
7/20
08
10/0
9/20
08
10/1
1/20
08
10/0
1/20
09
10/0
3/20
09
10/0
5/20
09
10/0
7/20
09
10/0
9/20
09
10/1
1/20
09
10/0
1/20
10
10/0
3/20
10
10/0
5/20
10
mcm
CLP
06:00 D PCLP
PCLP – midnight on the day
CLP and 00:00 D PCLP
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
41010
/05/
2008
10/0
7/20
08
10/0
9/20
08
10/1
1/20
08
10/0
1/20
09
10/0
3/20
09
10/0
5/20
09
10/0
7/20
09
10/0
9/20
09
10/1
1/20
09
10/0
1/20
10
10/0
3/20
10
10/0
5/20
10
mcm
CLP
00:00 D PCLP
PCLP evolution
PCLP - CLP, Apr-09 to Mar-10,on days when no residual balancing trades,
at six-hourly intervals from 00:00 D-1
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
00:00 D-1 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 EOD
mcm
Summary
Closing linepack is managed in a range, with seasonal variation, using residual balancing actions when required.
Large uncertainty in early PCLP values means other considerations needed for day-ahead assessment.