historical investment returns

Historical Investment Returns

Mortgage Rates in Canada

Canadian Prime Rate

Canadian Prime Rate

Historically and Globally Interest Rates Increase Rather Slowly

Guaranteed Term DepositsMarch 17, 2014 - TD Canada Trust Rates

1 Year: 1.30%2 Year: 1.35%3 Year: 1.40%4 Year: 1.60%5 Year: 2.10%

Historical Market Returns

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

It is the oldest and most recognized measure of stock market performance.


It is the oldest and most recognized measure of stock market performance.


Some Financial Media Outlets simplyrefer to it as “The Market”.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

25 Years

10 Years

Dow Jones Industrial Average

25 Years

10 Years

The Market Always Recovers But Sometimes It Takes A While

The History of a Stock MarketsDow Jones Industrial Average

Annual Return Since InceptionYEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual

Return Return Return Return5/26/1896 40.94 1925 156.66 30.00% 1955 488.40 20.77% 1985 1546.67 27.66%

1896 40.45 -1.20% 1926 157.20 0.34% 1956 499.47 2.27% 1986 1895.95 22.58%1897 49.41 22.15% 1927 202.40 28.75% 1957 435.69 -12.77% 1987 1938.83 2.26%1898 60.52 22.49% 1928 300.00 48.22% 1958 583.65 33.96% 1988 2168.57 11.85%1899 66.08 9.19% 1929 248.48 -17.17% 1959 679.36 16.40% 1989 2753.20 26.96%1900 70.71 7.01% 1930 164.58 -33.77% 1960 615.89 -9.34% 1990 2633.66 -4.34%1901 64.56 -8.70% 1931 77.90 -52.67% 1961 731.14 18.71% 1991 3168.83 20.32%1902 64.29 -0.42% 1932 59.93 -23.07% 1962 652.10 -10.81% 1992 3301.11 4.17%1903 49.11 -23.61% 1933 99.90 66.69% 1963 762.95 17.00% 1993 3754.09 13.72%1904 69.61 41.74% 1934 104.04 4.14% 1964 874.13 14.57% 1994 3834.44 2.14%1905 96.20 38.20% 1935 144.13 38.53% 1965 969.26 10.88% 1995 5117.12 33.45%1906 94.35 -1.92% 1936 179.50 24.54% 1966 785.69 -18.94% 1996 6448.27 26.01%1907 58.75 -37.73% 1937 120.85 -32.67% 1967 905.11 15.20% 1997 7908.25 22.64%1908 86.15 46.64% 1938 154.76 28.06% 1968 943.75 4.27% 1998 9181.43 16.10%1909 99.05 14.97% 1939 150.24 -2.92% 1969 800.36 -15.19% 1999 11497.12 25.22%1910 81.36 -17.86% 1940 131.13 -12.72% 1970 838.92 4.82% 2000 10786.67 -6.18%1911 81.68 0.39% 1941 110.96 -15.38% 1971 890.20 6.11% 2001 10021.64 -7.09%1912 87.87 7.58% 1942 119.40 7.61% 1972 1020.02 14.58% 2002 8341.63 -16.76%1913 78.78 -10.34% 1943 135.89 13.81% 1973 850.86 -16.58% 2003 10453.90 25.32%1914 54.58 -30.72% 1944 152.32 12.09% 1974 616.24 -27.57% 2004 10783.01 3.15%1915 99.15 81.66% 1945 192.91 26.65% 1975 852.41 38.32% 2005 10717.50 -0.61%1916 95.00 -4.19% 1946 177.20 -8.14% 1976 1004.65 17.86% 2006 12463.15 16.29%1917 74.38 -21.71% 1947 181.16 2.23% 1977 831.17 -17.27% 2007 13264.82 6.43%1918 82.20 10.51% 1948 177.30 -2.13% 1978 805.01 -3.15% 2008 8776.39 -33.84%1919 107.23 30.45% 1949 200.13 12.88% 1979 838.74 4.19% 2009 10428.05 18.82%1920 71.95 -32.90% 1950 235.41 17.63% 1980 963.99 14.93% 2010 11577.51 11.02%1921 81.1 12.72% 1951 269.23 14.37% 1981 875.00 -9.23% 2011 12217.56 5.53%1922 98.73 21.74% 1952 291.90 8.42% 1982 1046.54 19.60% 2012 13104.14 7.26%1923 95.52 -3.25% 1953 280.90 -3.77% 1983 1258.64 20.27% 2013 16576.66 26.50%1924 120.51 26.16% 1954 404.39 43.96% 1984 1211.57 -3.74% 30-Jun-14 16826.60 1.51%

Count the Squares With Red Numbers




1896 40.45 -1.20% 1926 157.20 0.34% 1956 499.47 2.27% 1986 1895.95 22.58%1897 49.41 22.15% 1927 202.40 28.75% 1957 435.69 -12.77% 1987 1938.83 2.26%1898 60.52 22.49% 1928 300.00 48.22% 1958 583.65 33.96% 1988 2168.57 11.85%1899 66.08 9.19% 1929 248.48 -17.17% 1959 679.36 16.40% 1989 2753.20 26.96%1900 70.71 7.01% 1930 164.58 -33.77% 1960 615.89 -9.34% 1990 2633.66 -4.34%1901 64.56 -8.70% 1931 77.90 -52.67% 1961 731.14 18.71% 1991 3168.83 20.32%1902 64.29 -0.42% 1932 59.93 -23.07% 1962 652.10 -10.81% 1992 3301.11 4.17%1903 49.11 -23.61% 1933 99.90 66.69% 1963 762.95 17.00% 1993 3754.09 13.72%1904 69.61 41.74% 1934 104.04 4.14% 1964 874.13 14.57% 1994 3834.44 2.14%1905 96.20 38.20% 1935 144.13 38.53% 1965 969.26 10.88% 1995 5117.12 33.45%1906 94.35 -1.92% 1936 179.50 24.54% 1966 785.69 -18.94% 1996 6448.27 26.01%1907 58.75 -37.73% 1937 120.85 -32.67% 1967 905.11 15.20% 1997 7908.25 22.64%1908 86.15 46.64% 1938 154.76 28.06% 1968 943.75 4.27% 1998 9181.43 16.10%1909 99.05 14.97% 1939 150.24 -2.92% 1969 800.36 -15.19% 1999 11497.12 25.22%1910 81.36 -17.86% 1940 131.13 -12.72% 1970 838.92 4.82% 2000 10786.67 -6.18%1911 81.68 0.39% 1941 110.96 -15.38% 1971 890.20 6.11% 2001 10021.64 -7.09%1912 87.87 7.58% 1942 119.40 7.61% 1972 1020.02 14.58% 2002 8341.63 -16.76%1913 78.78 -10.34% 1943 135.89 13.81% 1973 850.86 -16.58% 2003 10453.90 25.32%1914 54.58 -30.72% 1944 152.32 12.09% 1974 616.24 -27.57% 2004 10783.01 3.15%1915 99.15 81.66% 1945 192.91 26.65% 1975 852.41 38.32% 2005 10717.50 -0.61%1916 95.00 -4.19% 1946 177.20 -8.14% 1976 1004.65 17.86% 2006 12463.15 16.29%1917 74.38 -21.71% 1947 181.16 2.23% 1977 831.17 -17.27% 2007 13264.82 6.43%1918 82.20 10.51% 1948 177.30 -2.13% 1978 805.01 -3.15% 2008 8776.39 -33.84%1919 107.23 30.45% 1949 200.13 12.88% 1979 838.74 4.19% 2009 10428.05 18.82%1920 71.95 -32.90% 1950 235.41 17.63% 1980 963.99 14.93% 2010 11577.51 11.02%1921 81.1 12.72% 1951 269.23 14.37% 1981 875.00 -9.23% 2011 12217.56 5.53%1922 98.73 21.74% 1952 291.90 8.42% 1982 1046.54 19.60% 2012 13104.14 7.26%1923 95.52 -3.25% 1953 280.90 -3.77% 1983 1258.64 20.27% 2013 16576.66 26.50%1924 120.51 26.16% 1954 404.39 43.96% 1984 1211.57 -3.74% 30-Jun-14 16826.60 1.51%


34 % are negative since inception




1896 40.45 -1.20% 1926 157.20 0.34% 1956 499.47 2.27% 1986 1895.95 22.58%1897 49.41 22.15% 1927 202.40 28.75% 1957 435.69 -12.77% 1987 1938.83 2.26%1898 60.52 22.49% 1928 300.00 48.22% 1958 583.65 33.96% 1988 2168.57 11.85%1899 66.08 9.19% 1929 248.48 -17.17% 1959 679.36 16.40% 1989 2753.20 26.96%1900 70.71 7.01% 1930 164.58 -33.77% 1960 615.89 -9.34% 1990 2633.66 -4.34%1901 64.56 -8.70% 1931 77.90 -52.67% 1961 731.14 18.71% 1991 3168.83 20.32%1902 64.29 -0.42% 1932 59.93 -23.07% 1962 652.10 -10.81% 1992 3301.11 4.17%1903 49.11 -23.61% 1933 99.90 66.69% 1963 762.95 17.00% 1993 3754.09 13.72%1904 69.61 41.74% 1934 104.04 4.14% 1964 874.13 14.57% 1994 3834.44 2.14%1905 96.20 38.20% 1935 144.13 38.53% 1965 969.26 10.88% 1995 5117.12 33.45%1906 94.35 -1.92% 1936 179.50 24.54% 1966 785.69 -18.94% 1996 6448.27 26.01%1907 58.75 -37.73% 1937 120.85 -32.67% 1967 905.11 15.20% 1997 7908.25 22.64%1908 86.15 46.64% 1938 154.76 28.06% 1968 943.75 4.27% 1998 9181.43 16.10%1909 99.05 14.97% 1939 150.24 -2.92% 1969 800.36 -15.19% 1999 11497.12 25.22%1910 81.36 -17.86% 1940 131.13 -12.72% 1970 838.92 4.82% 2000 10786.67 -6.18%1911 81.68 0.39% 1941 110.96 -15.38% 1971 890.20 6.11% 2001 10021.64 -7.09%1912 87.87 7.58% 1942 119.40 7.61% 1972 1020.02 14.58% 2002 8341.63 -16.76%1913 78.78 -10.34% 1943 135.89 13.81% 1973 850.86 -16.58% 2003 10453.90 25.32%1914 54.58 -30.72% 1944 152.32 12.09% 1974 616.24 -27.57% 2004 10783.01 3.15%1915 99.15 81.66% 1945 192.91 26.65% 1975 852.41 38.32% 2005 10717.50 -0.61%1916 95.00 -4.19% 1946 177.20 -8.14% 1976 1004.65 17.86% 2006 12463.15 16.29%1917 74.38 -21.71% 1947 181.16 2.23% 1977 831.17 -17.27% 2007 13264.82 6.43%1918 82.20 10.51% 1948 177.30 -2.13% 1978 805.01 -3.15% 2008 8776.39 -33.84%1919 107.23 30.45% 1949 200.13 12.88% 1979 838.74 4.19% 2009 10428.05 18.82%1920 71.95 -32.90% 1950 235.41 17.63% 1980 963.99 14.93% 2010 11577.51 11.02%1921 81.1 12.72% 1951 269.23 14.37% 1981 875.00 -9.23% 2011 12217.56 5.53%1922 98.73 21.74% 1952 291.90 8.42% 1982 1046.54 19.60% 2012 13104.14 7.26%1923 95.52 -3.25% 1953 280.90 -3.77% 1983 1258.64 20.27% 2013 16576.66 26.50%1924 120.51 26.16% 1954 404.39 43.96% 1984 1211.57 -3.74% 30-Jun-14 16826.60 1.51%



29 % are negative since 1945




1896 40.45 -1.20% 1926 157.20 0.34% 1956 499.47 2.27% 1986 1895.95 22.58%1897 49.41 22.15% 1927 202.40 28.75% 1957 435.69 -12.77% 1987 1938.83 2.26%1898 60.52 22.49% 1928 300.00 48.22% 1958 583.65 33.96% 1988 2168.57 11.85%1899 66.08 9.19% 1929 248.48 -17.17% 1959 679.36 16.40% 1989 2753.20 26.96%1900 70.71 7.01% 1930 164.58 -33.77% 1960 615.89 -9.34% 1990 2633.66 -4.34%1901 64.56 -8.70% 1931 77.90 -52.67% 1961 731.14 18.71% 1991 3168.83 20.32%1902 64.29 -0.42% 1932 59.93 -23.07% 1962 652.10 -10.81% 1992 3301.11 4.17%1903 49.11 -23.61% 1933 99.90 66.69% 1963 762.95 17.00% 1993 3754.09 13.72%1904 69.61 41.74% 1934 104.04 4.14% 1964 874.13 14.57% 1994 3834.44 2.14%1905 96.20 38.20% 1935 144.13 38.53% 1965 969.26 10.88% 1995 5117.12 33.45%1906 94.35 -1.92% 1936 179.50 24.54% 1966 785.69 -18.94% 1996 6448.27 26.01%1907 58.75 -37.73% 1937 120.85 -32.67% 1967 905.11 15.20% 1997 7908.25 22.64%1908 86.15 46.64% 1938 154.76 28.06% 1968 943.75 4.27% 1998 9181.43 16.10%1909 99.05 14.97% 1939 150.24 -2.92% 1969 800.36 -15.19% 1999 11497.12 25.22%1910 81.36 -17.86% 1940 131.13 -12.72% 1970 838.92 4.82% 2000 10786.67 -6.18%1911 81.68 0.39% 1941 110.96 -15.38% 1971 890.20 6.11% 2001 10021.64 -7.09%1912 87.87 7.58% 1942 119.40 7.61% 1972 1020.02 14.58% 2002 8341.63 -16.76%1913 78.78 -10.34% 1943 135.89 13.81% 1973 850.86 -16.58% 2003 10453.90 25.32%1914 54.58 -30.72% 1944 152.32 12.09% 1974 616.24 -27.57% 2004 10783.01 3.15%1915 99.15 81.66% 1945 192.91 26.65% 1975 852.41 38.32% 2005 10717.50 -0.61%1916 95.00 -4.19% 1946 177.20 -8.14% 1976 1004.65 17.86% 2006 12463.15 16.29%1917 74.38 -21.71% 1947 181.16 2.23% 1977 831.17 -17.27% 2007 13264.82 6.43%1918 82.20 10.51% 1948 177.30 -2.13% 1978 805.01 -3.15% 2008 8776.39 -33.84%1919 107.23 30.45% 1949 200.13 12.88% 1979 838.74 4.19% 2009 10428.05 18.82%1920 71.95 -32.90% 1950 235.41 17.63% 1980 963.99 14.93% 2010 11577.51 11.02%1921 81.1 12.72% 1951 269.23 14.37% 1981 875.00 -9.23% 2011 12217.56 5.53%1922 98.73 21.74% 1952 291.90 8.42% 1982 1046.54 19.60% 2012 13104.14 7.26%1923 95.52 -3.25% 1953 280.90 -3.77% 1983 1258.64 20.27% 2013 16576.66 26.50%1924 120.51 26.16% 1954 404.39 43.96% 1984 1211.57 -3.74% 30-Jun-14 16826.60 1.51%








1896 40.45 -1.20% 1926 157.20 0.34% 1956 499.47 2.27% 1986 1895.95 22.58%1897 49.41 22.15% 1927 202.40 28.75% 1957 435.69 -12.77% 1987 1938.83 2.26%1898 60.52 22.49% 1928 300.00 48.22% 1958 583.65 33.96% 1988 2168.57 11.85%1899 66.08 9.19% 1929 248.48 -17.17% 1959 679.36 16.40% 1989 2753.20 26.96%1900 70.71 7.01% 1930 164.58 -33.77% 1960 615.89 -9.34% 1990 2633.66 -4.34%1901 64.56 -8.70% 1931 77.90 -52.67% 1961 731.14 18.71% 1991 3168.83 20.32%1902 64.29 -0.42% 1932 59.93 -23.07% 1962 652.10 -10.81% 1992 3301.11 4.17%1903 49.11 -23.61% 1933 99.90 66.69% 1963 762.95 17.00% 1993 3754.09 13.72%1904 69.61 41.74% 1934 104.04 4.14% 1964 874.13 14.57% 1994 3834.44 2.14%1905 96.20 38.20% 1935 144.13 38.53% 1965 969.26 10.88% 1995 5117.12 33.45%1906 94.35 -1.92% 1936 179.50 24.54% 1966 785.69 -18.94% 1996 6448.27 26.01%1907 58.75 -37.73% 1937 120.85 -32.67% 1967 905.11 15.20% 1997 7908.25 22.64%1908 86.15 46.64% 1938 154.76 28.06% 1968 943.75 4.27% 1998 9181.43 16.10%1909 99.05 14.97% 1939 150.24 -2.92% 1969 800.36 -15.19% 1999 11497.12 25.22%1910 81.36 -17.86% 1940 131.13 -12.72% 1970 838.92 4.82% 2000 10786.67 -6.18%1911 81.68 0.39% 1941 110.96 -15.38% 1971 890.20 6.11% 2001 10021.64 -7.09%1912 87.87 7.58% 1942 119.40 7.61% 1972 1020.02 14.58% 2002 8341.63 -16.76%1913 78.78 -10.34% 1943 135.89 13.81% 1973 850.86 -16.58% 2003 10453.90 25.32%1914 54.58 -30.72% 1944 152.32 12.09% 1974 616.24 -27.57% 2004 10783.01 3.15%1915 99.15 81.66% 1945 192.91 26.65% 1975 852.41 38.32% 2005 10717.50 -0.61%

1916 95.00 -4.19% 1946 177.20 -8.14% 1976 1004.65 17.86% 2006 12463.15 16.29%1917 74.38 -21.71% 1947 181.16 2.23% 1977 831.17 -17.27% 2007 13264.82 6.43%1918 82.20 10.51% 1948 177.30 -2.13% 1978 805.01 -3.15% 2008 8776.39 -33.84%1919 107.23 30.45% 1949 200.13 12.88% 1979 838.74 4.19% 2009 10428.05 18.82%1920 71.95 -32.90% 1950 235.41 17.63% 1980 963.99 14.93% 2010 11577.51 11.02%1921 81.1 12.72% 1951 269.23 14.37% 1981 875.00 -9.23% 2011 12217.56 5.53%1922 98.73 21.74% 1952 291.90 8.42% 1982 1046.54 19.60% 2012 13104.14 7.26%1923 95.52 -3.25% 1953 280.90 -3.77% 1983 1258.64 20.27% 2013 16576.66 26.50%1924 120.51 26.16% 1954 404.39 43.96% 1984 1211.57 -3.74% 30-Jun-14 16826.60 1.51%






There Will Be Some Bad Years

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Highest

Return

LowestReturn

Highest

Return

LowestReturn

Sectors Rise and Fall

Health Care Financials Technology Technology Health CareFinancials Transportation Transportation Health Care Financials

Transportation Utilities Energy Capital Goods TechnologyCapital Goods Basic Materials Utilities Basic Materials Utilities

Basic Materials Technology Basic Materials Energy TransportationUtilities Energy Capital Goods Financials Capital Goods

Technology Capital Goods Financials Utilities EnergyEnergy Health Care Health Care Transportation Basic Materials

Technology Financials Technology Technology UtilitiesFinancials Health Care Health Care Capital Goods Health Care

Capital Goods Transportation Utilities Basic Materials FinancialsEnergy Capital Goods Capital Goods Energy Transportation

Health Care Technology Financials Financials EnergyTransportation Energy Energy Health Care Capital GoodsBasic Materials Utilities Transportation Utilities Basic Materials

Utilities Basic Materials Basic Materials Transportation Technology

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Highest

ReturnReturn

Lowest ReturnReturnHighes

t ReturnReturn

Lowest ReturnReturn

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Highest

Return

LowestReturn

Highest

Return

LowestReturn

Sectors Rise and Fall

Health Care Financials Technology Technology Health CareFinancials Transportation Transportation Health Care Financials

Transportation Utilities Energy Capital Goods TechnologyCapital Goods Basic Materials Utilities Basic Materials Utilities

Basic Materials Technology Basic Materials Energy TransportationUtilities Energy Capital Goods Financials Capital Goods

Technology Capital Goods Financials Utilities EnergyEnergy Health Care Health Care Transportation Basic Materials

Technology Financials Technology Technology UtilitiesFinancials Health Care Health Care Capital Goods Health Care

Capital Goods Transportation Utilities Basic Materials FinancialsEnergy Capital Goods Capital Goods Energy Transportation

Health Care Technology Financials Financials EnergyTransportation Energy Energy Health Care Capital GoodsBasic Materials Utilities Transportation Utilities Basic Materials

Utilities Basic Materials Basic Materials Transportation Technology

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Highest

ReturnReturn

Lowest ReturnReturnHighes

t ReturnReturn

Lowest ReturnReturn

Picking the best sector is not easy either

DISCLAIMER

DISCLAIMERThe ideas and concepts presented her were not originally my ideas. They were collected by reading publications and attending presentations. I assume you don’t have time to invest/spend your time doing those things.


I agree with them or know them to be true. You are welcome to question the concept or facts.

I Refer To My Work Here As Research. Others Might Call It Plagiarism.-Brian Penston


I agree with them or know them to be true. You are welcome to question the concepts or facts.


DISCLAIMER

Thank You!

The ideas and concepts presented her were not originally my ideas. They were collected by reading publications and attending presentations. I assume you don’t have time to invest/spend your time doing those things.



DISCLAIMER

Thank You!

The ideas and concepts presented her were not originally my ideas. They were collected by reading publications and attending presentations. I assume you don’t have time to invest/spend your time doing those things.


Brian Penston

Brian PenstonB.Comm. (Hons.), CLU, CH.F.C.,

CFP

Phone: (204) 633-7353 Email: [email protected]

historical investment returns

Business

stock market performance

brian penston disclaimer

reading publications

attending presentations

recognized measure

concepts presented

market

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