historical perspective agriculture and the economy
TRANSCRIPT
Historical Perspective
Agriculture and the Economy
FARM PRODUCTIVITY
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
IND
EX
19
96
= 1
00
Total Factor Productivity
PRODUCTION INPUTS
0.0000
0.5000
1.0000
1.5000
2.0000
2.5000
3.0000
3.5000
Year 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Ind
ex 1
996=
100
Years
Labor, Chemicals and Equipment Use Index
Labor Chemicals Eqipment
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Year 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997
Ind
ex
199
6=10
0
Year
Fertilizer and Pesticide Use
Fertilizer Pesticides
Adoption of Genetically Engineered Crops
HARVESTED CROP ACRES
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
Mil
lio
ns
of
Ac
res
Harvested Cropland Acres
REAL FARM INCOME
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
Billions $ (2005=100)
Real Farm Income
U.S. Agricultural Exports and Imports
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Mill
ion
s o
f $
Agricultural Exports
Agricultural Imports
U. S. Agricultural Trade Balance
(5,000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Mill
ion
s o
f $
Agricultural Trade Balance
FARM REAL ESTATE VALUES(Land and Buildings)
0500
1000150020002500$ Per Acre Farm Real EstateValues
Nominal Value Real Value
INFLATION AND MONEY SUPPLY
-5
0
5
10
15
Per
cen
t A
nn
ual
Ch
ang
e
Year
Consumer Price Inflation and Growth in Money Supply
Change in Money Supply Change in CPI
Monetary Base
QE 2
QE 1
QE 3
Reserve Balances with FED
Real Gross Domestic Product
M2 Money Velocity
-202468
1012
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010%
Pri
me
le
ss %
Cha
nge
in
CP
I
REAL PRIME INTEREST RATE
REAL PRIME INTEREST RATES
Bank Prime Loan Rate
30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate
March 1977 – August 2009U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
• http://www.smartmoney.com/onebond/index.cfm?story=yieldcurve
Current Treasury Yield Curve
3 MO vs. 10 Year Treasury Rates
10 Year Treasury Bond Minus3 Month Treasury Bill
http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2006/06/visualizing-probability-of-recession.html
•http://www.x-rates.com/