history and the 21st century legacies of the 20 th century and the lost decade
TRANSCRIPT
History and the 21st Century
Legacies of the 20th century and the lost decade
Announcements Course is open for evaluations. Final lecture on Wed; sections DO meet this week Access to all lectures, open from this week for
review Review session, pre exam: May 12, 6:00 pm,
Maxwell Dworkin, G125 Final exam: May 15 (Sat), 2pm,
A-14: Emerson 104. E1851: Emerson 305
Japan and Asia/non-West
•Attractive idea of solidarity with Asia •prewar roots: Okakura Tenshin, others•Postwar efforts:
•Normalization with Korea, China•Aid to SE Asia, Africa
•Ongoing legacies of mistrust
•Comfort women•Nanjing massacre•POWs •textbooks
Asian relations today Good neighbors?
Economic integration, unprecedentedCultural connections, likewisePolitical cooperation on key issues: N.
Korea Yet, shadow of past present
Textbook revisions: downplaying wartime acts
Visiting the Yasukuni shrine A dangerous game of domestic, int’l
politics, among Korea, China, Japan
Political issues: the 1990s in haiku
クリントン
一人の間に
七総理 During the time
Of just one Clinton
Seven Prime Ministers
Politics of 1990s-00s: Toward 2 parties LDP loses majority, 1993, briefly to coalition Breakaway elements coalesce with portions of
JSP, others, to Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) LDP rebuilds, in alliance to Komeito (CGP),
under Koizumi’s leadership “Neo-liberal” agenda: financial deregulation (1995
“big bang” 1996; 2005 postal privatization”) Labor deregulation from 1999 Education deregulation Neo-nationalism, as well: Yasukuni visits
Politics of 1990s-00s: Toward 2 parties Post Koizumi floundering of LDP (in a
sense destroyed by Koizumi) Liberal Democrats vs. Democratic Party of
Japan (DPJ) Will DPJ popularity persist?
Hatoyama on defensive, backing off of promises
Social trends, issues: 1990s21st century New vocabulary: “divided society” (kakusa
shakai); “new poor” (nyuu pua): produces political backlash
Growing socio-economic inequality: winners/losers Income: ambiguous evidence
Soaring “poverty index”: proportion with income <50% of national average
Very low ratio of income of wealthiest 20% to poorest 20%, and not changing rapidly.
Contradiction of high “poverty index” and low ratio of rich/poor incomes
Top 20%Bottom 20%Japan: incomeratio
US Incomeratio
Top 20%Bottom 20%
Japan Povertyindex
13.5%
13.7%US Povertyindex
Aging Society
Economy: Japan’s “Lost Decade” and lessons for America
Prelude: The bubble era, 1985-90
•Strong GNP: up 55% over the decade
•Gold leaf sushi wrap
•Land prices boom
Economy: Japan’s “Lost Decade” and lessons for America
The bubble bursts: 1991-->
Economy, 2003-2008•Relatively strong GDP growth:
2003-2007 annual growth
averages over 2%•Unemployment falls under 4%•Exports rise
•Especially to China
Explaining Japan’s “Lost Decade” (ver. 1)
1. Systemic crisis:the bankrupt “1940ssystem”
•system that once worked,-developmental state-interfirm networks as dynamic-long-term labor commitments
•Stopped working? -rigid state role-ineffective finance system-inflexible corporate organization
Explaining Japan’s “Lost Decade” (ver. 2)
2. Policy failures drag down a gradually changing but still-viable system
•Slow response to financial crisis•Tax increase choked off recovery in ‘98•Eventually, through trial and error, got it right
Lost decade lessons for America?
negative
Lost decade lessonsfor America?
positive
Robert Feldman, Morgan StanleyResearch report, 11/27/2008