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Modern Delay Analysis

Techniques

Scott Adams BEng LLB PgD LLM CEng MICE FCIArb MAPM MAE

Scott Adams Consultants Ltd

!"! #in$ield Commercial Bldg

%&' Prat A(enue) TST) *+

Tel, -./- /0"') Fa1, -0-. /0.'

#eb, 222scadaconcomh3

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Modern Delay Analysis

Techniques1. ‘Static’ methods

4 5nly one net2or3 used, Delays added into it) or

subtracted $rom it 6 7rogress not accounted $or

2. ‘Dynamic’ methods

4 Se(eral net2or3s used) 8u7dated9 either in real time or

retros7ecti(ely 6 7rogress accounted $or

[AACE International Recommended PracticeNo.29R-03 “Forensic Schedle Anal!sis"# $-le%el

ta&onom!' (i%in( ) *road methodolo(ies

descri*ed o%er +0$ closel!-t!,ed ,a(es

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Contents

4 The irant case

4 #indo2s analysis 6 an e1am7le

4 5ther :DA techniques4 Ad(antages and disad(antages

4 The Cit! Inn Case

4 Problems o$ 7rogramming

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Mirant ( 5(e Aru7 ;-""0<

4 =#indo2s analysis) re(ie2ing the course o$ a

Pro>ect month by month) 7ro(ides an e1cellent

$orm o$ analysis to in$orm those controlling thePro>ect 2hat action they need to ta3e to 7re(ent

delay to the Pro>ect?

4 =#ithout such analysis those controlling thePro>ect may thin3 they 3no2 2hat acti(ities are

on the critical 7ath *t it ma! /ell a,,ear ater a

critical ,ath anal!sis that the! /ere mista1en?

Summary obser(ations o$ **@ Toulmin at !%,

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#indo2s Analysis

4 =The e17ert must not only be $amiliar 2ith

the chronology) he must tell the stor! in his

re7ort Some 2ould say that the

so$t2are e1ercise counts $or nothing

unless bac3ed u7 by the narrati(e?

ohn arrin C# E&,ert E%idence on 4ela! and

4isr,tion 5 6he 6ri*nal7s Pers,ecti%e

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#indo2s Analysis

4 E1am7le 7ro>ect, Ci(il Engineering #or3s

4 But & e1actly the same 7rogramming

7rinci7les a77ly in building 2or3s 7ro>ects

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#indo2s Analysis

4 E1am7le 7ro>ect, Bridge and A77roach

:oad

4Start date "/&@an&"0 Date $or Com7letion."&@un&"0 % month 7ro>ect

4 Main Contractor a bridge s7ecialist but

not a road&2or3s s7ecialist 6 so this 2ill be

sub&contracted out

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www.scadacon.com.hkF a m e D u r

T o t a l

$ l o a t

2 0 0 7

F e b M a r A p r M a y J n J

E x c a v a t e F o u n d a t i o n s

C o n c r e t e A b u t m e n t s

F a l s e w k ; c o n c r e t e D e c k

L i g h t i n g a n d F u r n i t u r e

A & & " ' A ( ) " ' A D

S u b c o n t r a c t R o a d w o r k s

E x c a v a t e R o a d ( k m !

L a " d r a i n s # $ a v i n g ( k m !

S t r e e t l i g h t i n g i n s t a l l a t i o n

( ' M & * % + # ' ,

% & C L i g h t s & D r a i n s

' r o e c t E n d D a t e

A " d

/ % d

' " d

. " d

- " d

. " d

! " d

. " d

/ ! d

% % d

% % d

% % d

% % d

- " d

Bridge $orms critical

7ath % months to

construct

T*E IITIAL P:5H:AMME Care$ully 7lanned and resourced

A77roach :oad has

%%d o$ =$loat?

%%d

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E(ents in First =#indo2? @anFeb

4 Day 1- E1ca(ation starts SC bids com7iled

4 Day 10- J5/ issued) increasing the de7th o$

abutment $oundations 6 -"d e1tra e1ca(ation

required4 Day 2- :oad Subcontract a2arded B !d

late

4 Day / %nd o window- i Abutmentse1ca(ation almost com7leted ii :oad 7a(ing

cannot be sourced materials shortage

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T o t a l

$ l o a t

2 0 0 7

F e b M a r A p r M a y J n J 3

) n i t i a l e x c a v a t i o n w o r k s c o $ e

* + i n c r e a s e d d e $ t h




A & & " ' A ( ) " ' A D





( ' M & * % + # ' ,



A " d

- " d

/ % d

' " d

. " d

- ! d

A ' d

! " d

. " d

/ ! d

/ - ' d

! ' d

! ' d

& - " d

- " d

J5/

Increased de7th, -"d

additional e1ca(ation

Subcontract a2arda$ter -!d !d late

Pa(ing not commenced

due to material shortage

SITKATI5 AS AT ED 5F FEB "0 Close o$ First 8#indo29

/st 2indo2

-"d delay

due to J5/

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E(ents in -nd =#indo2? MarA7r

4 Day 40- E1ca(ation o$ abutments com7leted Day 7-

Pa(ement laying commenced

4 Day 50- Concreting o$ abutments com7letes slo2ly)

ta3ing ."d in total so a /d delay

4 Day 100- J5- 6 ma>or instruction $or a $urther 3m o$

road) in di$$icult ground on 7iles 6 7lanned at 21d to

source 7iling sc) 60d to dri(e ." 7iles) 20d to test) 60d to

construct ne2 road drains) and 1d $or street $urniture

4 Day 120 %nd o window- o $urther delays) but due to

massi(e J5-) the a77roach roads are no2 on the critical

7ath

2 0 0 7

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www.scadacon.com.hkF a m e D u r T o t a l$ l o a t

2 0 0 7

F e b M a r A p r M a y J n J 3 A






A & & " ' A ( ) " ' A D





* + , A $ $ o i n t $ i l i n g S - C

* + , ' i l i n g . t e s t

* + , L a " d r a i n s # $ a v i n g

* + , L i g h t i n g . F u r n i t u r e

( ' M & * % + # ' ,



A " d

- " d

. " d

0 G d

. " d

- ! d

% . d

% " d

. " d

- " d

! h

! " d

. " d

/ ! d

/ ! d

/ A d

/ A d

. . d

A . d

& A ' d

- " d

-nd 2indo2

SITKATI5 AS AT ED 5F AP: "0 Close o$ Second 8#indo29

Slo2 Concreting o$

Abutments /d delay

J5-

e2 "!3m o$ road in7oor ground on 7iles

'd delay -"d J5/) /d

slo2 abutments /d J5-

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-/d

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E(ents in .rd =#indo2? May@un

4 Day 121- False2or3 erectors go on stri3e $or the 2hole

month o$ May

4 Day 16- Contractor says that he 2ill mitigate the delay

by doubling u7 resources on the commissioning stage

4 Day 140- J5. 6 /" more 7iles instructed in the ne2 7iled

a77roach section) these 2ill ta3e an e1tra /" days to

com7lete

4 Day 1/1 %nd o window- o $urther delays) but due to

the month&long stri3e) the bridge has become once again

more critical than the a77roach road

2 0 0 7

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2 0 0 7

F e b M a r A p r M a y J n J 3 A S






A & & " ' A ( ) " ' A D





* + , A $ $ o i n t $ i l i n g S - C

* + , ' i l i n g . t e s t

* + , L a " d r a i n s # $ a v i n g


( ' M & * % + # ' ,



A " d

- " d

. " d

' ! d

. " d

- ! d

% . d

% " d

. " d

- " d

! h

% " d

. " d

/ ! d

' d

/ A d

/ A d

& % % d

- " d

.rd 2indo2

5ne month lost due to

$alse2or3 sc stri3e

J5., Additional 7iles

instructed at ne2 road

J5.

SITKATI5 AS AT ED 5F @K "0 Close o$ Third 8#indo29

%%d delay -"d J5/) /d slo2 abutments

/d J5- -!d stri3e &0d mitigation

Mitiation-

commissionin

now on3y /d-/d

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E(ents in th =#indo2? @ulAug

4 Day 1/2 8 Day 296- Further 7roblems 2ith

False2or3 erectors 6 not all 2ere 7leased 2ith

stri3e settlement terms) and 7roducti(ity su$$ers

4 Day 296 %nd o window- o $urther delaysa77roach road com7leted bar $or commissioning

but the ele(ated bridge concrete dec3 only

managed com7letion at the (ery end o$ this

7eriod The bridge thus remained more criticalthan the a77roach road throughout

d hkT t l 2 0 0 7

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2 0 0 7

M a r A p r M a y J n J 3 A S e p '






A & & " ' A ( ) " ' A D





* + , A $ $ o i n t $ i l i n g S - C

* + , ' i l i n g . t e s t

* + , L a " d r a i n s # $ a v i n g


( ' M & * % + # ' ,



A " d

- " d

. " d

/ / 0 d

. " d

- ! d

% . d

% " d

. " d

- " d ! h

% " d

. " d

/ ! d

' d

& G ' d

- " d

SITKATI5 AS AT ED 5F AKH "0 Close o$ Fourth 8#indo29

th

2indo2

More than one $urther

month lost due to 7oor

$alse2or3 sc

7roducti(ity

G'd delay -"d J5/) /d slo2 abutments

/d J5- -!d stri3e &0d mitigation .-d

7oor $alse2or3 7roducti(ity

-/d

d hk

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E(ents in !th =#indo2? Se75ct

4 Day 270- J5) some ne2 road mar3ings and

re(ised drainage causes an e1tra /"d o$ 2or3

4 Day 2/5 %nd o pro:ect- The 7ro>ect

com7letes on /% 5ctober -""0) some /"' dayslate

4 Critical J5s,& J5/N-"d) J5-N/d J5N/"d,

Total N 99d

d hkT o t a l 2 0 0 7

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2 0 0 7

M a r A p r M a y J n J 3 A S e p ' c t






A & & " ' A ( ) " ' A D





* + , A $ $ o i n t $ i l i n g S - C

* + , ' i l i n g . t e s t

* + , L a " d r a i n s # $ a v i n g


( ' M & * % + # ' ,



A " d

- " d

. " d

/ / 0 d

. " d

- ! d

% . d

% " d

. " d

- " d ! h

% " d

. " d

/ ! d

/ ' d

- " d

&/"'

!th

2indo2

SITKATI5 AS AT ED 5F 5CT "0 Close o$ Fi$th 8#indo29 /"'d

J5e2 :oad mar3ing

scheme

-/d

d hk

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-"d

/d

/"d

d hk

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As&Built Subtracted Analysis

4 Ta3e the as&built 7rogramme) and subtract the

delays 2hich the contractor has su$$ered 2hich

are not to his o2n de$ault

4 This gi(es rise to a theoretical date) the date on2hich the contractor 2ould ha(e $inished *t or

the delays

4 The di$$erence bet2een the ABBF date) and the

actual com7letion date re7resents the 7otential

entitlement to E5T

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2 0 0 7

M a r A p r M a y J n J 3 A S e p ' c t






A & & " ' A ( ) " ' A D





* + , A $ $ o i n t $ i l i n g S - C

* + , ' i l i n g . t e s t

* + , L a " d r a i n s # $ a v i n g


( ' M & * % + # ' ,



A " d

- " d

. " d

/ / 0 d

. " d

- ! d

% . d

% " d

. " d

- " d ! h

% " d

. " d

/ ! d

/ ' d

- " d

AS&BKILT BKT&F5: AS&BKILT SKBT:ACTED AALOSIS

J5-

J5.

J5/

J5&/"'

-/d

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www.scadacon.com.hkF a m e D u r T o t a l$ l o a t M a r A p r M a y J n J 3 A S e p ' c t





A & & " ' A ( ) " ' A D





( ' M & * % + # ' ,


A s / 0 u i l t / 0 u t / F o r D a t e

C o m $ l e t i o n D a t e

A " d

. " d

/ / 0 d

. " d

- ! d

% . d

% " d

. " d

' d

& / A d

- " d

AS&BKILT BKT&F5: AS&BKILT SKBT:ACTED AALOSIS

&0'

."d

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As&Built Subtracted Analysis

4 The =longest 7ath? is $a(oured

4 5nly the J5s on the longest 7ath $eature in the

subtraction) irres7ecti(e o$ the contem7orary

criticality o$ other J5s4 Thus) J5/ -"d and J5 /"d are those 2hich)

2hen subtracted) cause the ABBF date to be

colla7sed bac3 in time Thus the 7otential E5T

entitlement here is 60d c$ d in the 2indo2s

analysis

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As&Planned Im7acted Analysis

4 The initial 7rogramme 2arts and all is ta3en)

and into it are im7acted all o$ the delays 2hich

the contractor has su$$ered

4 The im7acts are 8added9 into the initial net2or3sometimes this is done in 8real time9) but this

causes 7roblems i$ the delays are caused late

due to the contractor9s o2n 7roblems eg a J5

instructed at a late stage merely because o$earlier contractor9s delays


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T o t a l

$ l o a t

2 0 0 7M a r A p r M a y J n J 3 A S e p





A & & " ' A ( ) " ' A D





( ' M & * % + # ' ,



A " d

/ % d

' " d

. " d

- " d

. " d

! " d

. " d

/ ! d

% % d

% % d

% % d

% % d

- " d

T*E IITIAL P:5H:AMME Care$ully 7lanned and resourced


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www.scadacon.com.hkF a m e D u r T o t a l

$ l o a t

2 0 0 7

b M a r A p r M a y J n J 3 A S

E x c a v a t i o n i n c l * +




A & & " ' A ( ) " ' A D





* + , & * + 1

( ' M & * % + # ' ,

% & C L i g h t s & D r a i n s & * + 2


% " d

/ % d

' " d

. " d

- " d

. " d

! " d

. " d

/ - % d

- ! d

. G d

. G d

. G d

. G d

/ - ! d

/ - ! d

/ - ! d

/ - ! d

& % G d

- " d

J5/

J5-)

J5.J5

&%'d

T*E IITIAL P:5H:AMME IMPACTED #IT* J5/&J5

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As&Planned Im7acted Analysis4 The im7acts ta3e no account o$ 7rogress) or o$ any o$ the

contractor9s o2n de$aults

4 The resultant date is again a theoretical date) 7erha7s best

described as the date $or 2hich the contractor 2ould ha(e

7rogrammed i$ it had 3no2 about all o$ the additionally

instructed 2or3 at the outset

4 I$ the J5s are im7acted in chronological order) then they all

$igure in this e1am7le, J5/N-"d J5-N-'d J5.N/"d

J5N/"d, Total N 4/d c$ ."d ABBF) d 2indo2s analysis

4 et delay gi(en initial $loat and the 7rior occurrence o$ J5/

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Ad(antages Disad(antages

4 The 8static9 analyses APIP) ABBF are sim7le)requiring only t2o sheets o$ 7a7er $or a 8be$oreand a$ter9 e$$ect

4 But their results are theoretical) there is noaccount o$ 7rogress made) no account o$changes to the 7lan) no account o$ mitigation

4 The 82indo2s9 analysis does ta3e account o$

such $actors) 2hich may account $or the 2armrece7tion in the irant case but this does comeat a cost o$ com7le1ity) and the 7rogrammesmust be reliable also,

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Ad(antages Disad(antages

4 =Although the status at the start and end o$ the

2indo2 2ill allo2 any delay to be quanti$ied it 2ill

not in itsel$ demonstrate the cause or causes o$

delay Analysis o$ these ;intra&2indo2< delayinge(ents can be carried out by using any method

2hich is a77licable) de7endant u7on the

acti(ities and the e(ents in question It may be

a77ro7riate to use a 8colla7sed as&built9 or an 8as&7lanned im7acted9 methodology ?

8o/sle!' 8innett “A*ot 6ime"' ,.90

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*+ Standard Form Pri(ate Form

4 K7on it becoming reasonably a77arent that the7rogress o$ the 2or3s is delayed) the MC shall

$orth2ith gi(e 2ritten notice and i$ in the o7inion o$

the Architect the com7letion o$ the 2or3s is li3ely to be

or has been delayed beyond the D$C by ;the(arious reasons< then he shall as soon as he is able

to estimate the length o$ the delay ma3e a $air and

reasonable e1tension o$ time $or the com7letion o$ the

#or3s ?

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4 Scottish Decision only o$ 7ersuasi(e(alue in *+

4 @CT&style contract 8actual9 and 8li3ely9

delay can gi(e rise to E5T4 Pursuer9s e17ert used some $orm o$ CPM

De$ender9s e17ert used an =as&7lanned (s

as&built? chart not a CPM analysis andseemingly not ca7able o$ discerning li3elydelay

(ity #nn ; Shepherd

(onstrction

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City Inn ( She7herd Construction

;-""0<

4 = Consequently I thin3 it necessary to re(ertto the methods that 2ere in use be$orecom7uter so$t2are came to be used

e1tensi(ely in the 7rogramming o$ com7le1construction?

4 =The older methods are still 7lainly (alid)and i$ com7uter&based techniques cannotbe used accurately there is no alternati(e tousing older non&com7uter&basedtechniques?

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;-""0<

4 = in the ty7e o$ 7rogramme used to carry out

CPM analysis any signi$icant error in the

in$ormation $ed into the 7rogramme can

in(alidate the 2hole analysis it is easy toma3e such errors?

4 =That seems to me to in(alidate the use o$ an

as&built CPM analysis to disco(er a$ter the e(ent

2here the critical 7ath lay) at least 2here $ullelectronic records are not a(ailable $rom the

Contractor?

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; A77eal, -"/"<4 C5CK::ET DELAO Lord Carlo2ay

4 The initial e1ercise to be carried out by the architectoccurs u7on the a77lication o$ the contractor) 2ho 2illha(e requested an e1tension o$ time by intimating) under

clause -!-) that the 7rogress o$ the #or3s Qis being oris li3ely to be delayedQ *e 2ill claim that a :ele(antE(ent has been the) or at least a) cause o$ the delay Thearchitect then has to decide 2hether he considers thatthe com7letion o$ the #or3s is li3ely to be delayed by a

:ele(ant E(ent beyond the Com7letion Date clauses-!.// and -

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; A77eal, -"/"<4 C5CK::ET DELAO Lord Carlo2ay

4 This 7ro(ision is designed to allo2 the contractorsu$$icient time to com7lete the #or3s) ha(ing regard tomatters 2hich are not his $ault ie :ele(ant E(ents

This does not) at least strictly) in(ol(e any analysis o$com7eting causes o$ delay or an assessment o$ ho2 $arother e(ents ha(e) or might ha(e) caused delay beyondthe Com7letion Date It 7roceeds) to a large e1tent) u7ona hy7othetical assum7tion that the contract has

7roceeded) and 2ill 7roceed) 2ithout contractor de$aultIt in(ol(es an assessment) on that assum7tion) o$ thedelay 2hich 2ould ha(e been caused to the Com7letionDate 7urely as a result o$ the :ele(ant E(ent

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-"d

-'d

/"d

/"d

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; A77eal, -"/"<

4 C5CK::ET DELAO Lord Carlo2ay

4 J5/ N -" days

4 J5- N -' days4 J5. N /" days

4 J5 N /" days

So the “8ord Carlo/a! a,,roach" mightgi(e a %' day entitlement 6 the same as

the as&7lanned&im7acted in this e1am7le

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Common Programming and

Planning Problems

4 Planner o$ten a >uniorine17erienced sta$$ member

4 o resources are considered in 7rogrammes

4 Programmes are bar&charts) 2ith no logic4 The 8concertina9 e$$ect 6 7rogramme de7ictscom7letion on time) e(en a$ter se(eral delays ha(eoccurred

4 =5P N PC?4 PC certi$ied $or commercial secret reasons

4 The 7rogramme becomes a commercial or 7oliticaldocument) not a 7ro>ect management tool

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The =Magic Circle?

#or3 to that

7rogramme until

something occurs

2hich ma3es itim7ossible

E1amine and quanti$y

the e$$ects on

th

Produce a (iable)

2or3ing 7rogramme

2ith $ull reasons$or all re(isions

hkis-06oct10.pps

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