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[email protected] huntingmammoths .net Systems Thinking Josep Mª Monguet VI-2016 Explain life, human activity & stuff. Understand how it works and predict behaviour

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Diapositiva 1

Systems Thinking

Josep M MonguetVI-2016

Explain life, human activity & stuff.Understand how it works and predict behaviour

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1

Systems Thinking

Josep M MonguetVI-2016

Explain life, human activity & stuff.Understand how it works and predict behaviour

Systemics

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You may think you are doing just one thing but conscious or not we live inside systems.

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You may think you are doing just one thing Why Berlusconi is in debt whit Fellini?

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You may think you are doing just one thing Why Berlusconi is in debt whit Fellini?

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In some places you can be against a system but in fact from an alternative system.

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Map of the sessionSystems ThinkingIntegrative ThinkingDesign ThinkingDifficultiesiMistakesCases DefinitionTVLoveHealthITEcologyPolitics DevelopmentTechniquesIshikawa diagramCausal LoopsObjectivesReview

v.1v.2Complexity (SPR)Education. Analytical / SystemicPygmalion effectDiversity of systemsStructure BehaviourExercice

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but perhaps you simply dont understand a systemCould be the most important system in history

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netExercise: Drafting the health system.

Interconnect the components, putting users in the centre

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netExercise: Drafting the health system.

Figurative version

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netFigurative

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Exercise: Drafting the health system.

Synthetic version

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netObjectives of the session.Conversation about imperfect and incomplete abstractions to present systems.

Apply a couple of techniques to define and act on systems.

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The expression of a classical system.

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Thinking is difficult

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Map of the sessionSystems ThinkingIntegrative ThinkingDesign ThinkingDifficultiesiMistakesCases DefinitionTVLoveHealthITEcologyPolitics DevelopmentTechniquesIshikawa diagramCausal LoopsObjectivesReview

v.1v.2Complexity (SPR)Education. Analytical / SystemicPygmalion effectDiversity of systemsStructure BehaviourExercice

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Laziness of thinking

Human biology: We need to think that we are right.

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Human biology: We need to think that we are right.

Sense of live:Sense of knowledge. Good mood.

Laziness of thinking

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Human biology: We need to think that we are right.

Sense of life:Sense of knowledge. Good mood.

Behaviour:We think we understand more than we actually do.

Laziness of thinking

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Human biology: We need to think that we are right.

Sense of live:Sense of knowledge. Good mood.

Behaviour:We think we understand more than we actually do.

Result:Lower the guard and make mistakes

Laziness of thinking

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When people don't think"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

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TV is not going to be in the market for more than six months. People will be bored of looking at the same box all nights Darryl F. Zanuck. General Manager at 20th Century Fox. 1946When people don't think

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netHe played a major part in the Hollywood studio system as one of its longest survivors (the length of his career was rivaled only by that21

We dont like that sound. Guitar music is finished Answer of DECCA Recording Co. to The Beatles. 1962

When people don't think

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I think that the world market for computers is may be of five machines. Thomas Watson, president at IBM. 1943 When people don't think

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netA leading self-made industrialist,[4] he was one of the richest men of his time and was called the world's greatest salesman when he died in 1956.[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Thomas_J_Watson_Sr.jpg23

I think that the world market for computers is may be of five machines. Thomas Watson, president at IBM. 1943 When people don't think

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netA leading self-made industrialist,[4] he was one of the richest men of his time and was called the world's greatest salesman when he died in 1956.[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Thomas_J_Watson_Sr.jpg24

There is no reason to think that people wants to have a computer at homeKen Olson, founder of Digital Equipment. 1977When people don't think

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There is no home-computer marketApple's CEO John Sculley. 1987When people don't think

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When people don't think"The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys. Sir William Preece, chief engineer of the British Post Office, 1876.

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A Tsunami Warning System sends SMS text message to users within 120 seconds from the moment a seismic event is recordedWhen people don't think

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netearthquakes were not casual but frequent and with intensity in the area28

New thinking for new solutionsThe problems we have created in the world today will not be solved by the level of thinking that created them.

Albert Einstein. Rabindranath Tagore

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Map of the sessionSystems ThinkingIntegrative ThinkingDesign ThinkingDifficultiesiMistakesCases DefinitionTVLoveHealthITEcologyPolitics DevelopmentTechniquesIshikawa diagramCausal LoopsObjectivesReview

v.1v.2Complexity (SPR)Education. Analytical / SystemicPygmalion effectDiversity of systemsStructure BehaviourExercice

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Integrative thinkingUnderstanding

Causalities ArchitectureRelevanceNew thinking for new solutions

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netHow does great leaders think?

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Integrative thinkingUnderstanding

Causalities ArchitectureRelevanceConsidering all the relevant aspects of the problemMultidirectional study of causalities, not just linear. Not losing global and general view while working with parts of the problem or the possible solutionLooking for alternative views or solutions to obtain the necessary degree of quality

New thinking for new solutions

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Less or non relevant factors

Facilitate study and discussionsRelevant factors Understanding

Causalities ArchitectureRelevanceNew thinking for new solutions

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Optimisation through 360 directionality

Understanding

Causalities ArchitectureRelevanceNew thinking for new solutions

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Have an eye for detail as well as for all the whole pictureUnderstanding

Causalities ArchitectureRelevanceNew thinking for new solutions

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Disruptive new ideas vs the norm.Galieo vs. Classical

Understanding

Causalities ArchitectureRelevanceNew thinking for new solutions

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System thinking basics

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Map of the sessionSystems ThinkingIntegrative ThinkingDesign ThinkingDifficultiesiMistakesCases DefinitionTVLoveHealthITEcologyPolitics DevelopmentTechniquesIshikawa diagramCausal LoopsObjectivesReview

v.1v.2Complexity (SPR)Education. Analytical / SystemicPygmalion effectDiversity of systemsStructure BehaviourExercice

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Systems are not easy to understand and predict.

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netSlug frog snake39

Systems are not easy to understand and predict.

Slug Frog Snake

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Systems are not easy to understand and predict.Common lizards

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netBacteria[edit]Some bacteria also exhibit a rock-paper-scissors dynamic when they engage in antibiotic production. The theory for this finding was demonstrated by computer simulation and in the laboratory by Benjamin Kerr, working at Stanford University with Brendan Bohannan.[40] Additional in vitro results demonstrate rock-paper-scissors dynamics in additional species of bacteria.[41] Biologist Benjamin C. Kirkup, Jr. demonstrated that these antibiotics, bacterioicins, were active as Escherichia coli compete with each other in the intestines of mice, and that the rock-paper-scissors dynamics allowed for the continued competition among strains: antibiotic-producers defeat antibiotic-sensitives; antibiotic-resisters multiply and withstand and out-compete the antibiotic-producers, letting antibiotic-sensitives multiply and out-compete others; until antibiotic-producers multiply again.[42]

Rock-paper-scissors is the subject of continued research in bacterial ecology and evolution. It is considered one of the basic applications of game theory and non-linear dynamics to bacteriology.[43] Models of evolution demonstrate how intragenomic competition can lead to rock-paper-scissors dynamics from a relatively general evolutionary model.[44] The general nature of this basic non-transitive model is widely applied in theoretical biology to explore bacterial ecology and evolution.[45][46]

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Systems are not easy to understand and predict.

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netSystems are not easy to understand and predict.

Slug-frog-snake system simulation.

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netSystems are not easy to understand and predict.

Frog-slug-snake system simulation.

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netSystems are not easy to understand and predict.

Frog-slug-snake system simulation.

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in many ways its like trying to understand life by studying the deadEducation is mainly analytical

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Analytic Thinking Understand what the parts do Assemble understanding of the parts into an understanding of the wholeWhole = Sum of parts ...but life & human activity configure complex systems

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+ Systems Thinking What its a part of Understanding functional interdependencies of the parts in the behaviour of the whole Whole = Product of part interactions

Analytic Thinking Understand what the parts do Assemble understanding of the parts into an understanding of the wholeWhole = Sum of parts ...but life & human activity configure complex systems

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netAntipersonnel mines48

Interdependence in complex systems

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Interdependence in complex systemsIrrigationCottonAgricultural dependenceLots of chemicals

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Interdependence in complex systems

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netInterdependence in complex systems

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netLow quality of irrigation canals using the water from the riversUsing alternative cotton species that require less waterPromoting non-agricultural economic development in upstream countriesUsing fewer chemicals on the cottonCultivating crops other than cotton

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Map of the sessionSystems ThinkingIntegrative ThinkingDesign ThinkingDifficultiesiMistakesCases DefinitionTVLoveHealthITEcologyPolitics DevelopmentTechniquesIshikawa diagramCausal LoopsObjectivesReview

v.1v.2Complexity (SPR)Education. Analytical / SystemicPygmalion effectDiversity of systemsStructure BehaviourExercice

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Are there simple systems?Small events causing disproportionate effects.Friendship Brand & Mandela, a prison warder at Robben Island. 11 February 19905 August 1962

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netThe morning after Nelson Mandelas death, in the windswept gloom, one man made a solitary journey to the former maximum security prison on Robben Island. There, in what has become a monument to the anti-apartheid struggle, he said a silent prayer.Christo Brand, a white prison warder who locked up Mandela and his political comrades nightly for four years, enjoyed an unlikely friendship with the man who went on to become South Africas President. They remained close until the end.Their unique friendship was sealed on the stormy day that, 33 years ago, Mandelas wife Winnie arrived on Robben Island with their baby granddaughter Zoleka.Eternal bond: Christo Brand was a prison guard at Robben Island during Mandela's time in incarceration and risked his job to ensure he met his baby granddaughterEternal bond: Christo Brand was a prison guard at Robben Island during Mandela's time in incarceration and risked his job to ensure he met his baby granddaughter in 1980Now for the first time, Christo reveals the extraordinary story of how he smuggled the baby past his fellow guards in an act of mercy unprecedented in Mandelas 18 years on Robben Island.One of the cruellest rules there was that prisoners should never touch or see a child, not even one from the warders families something that was particularly hard for African prisoners from traditional extended families.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2520013/How-I-smuggled-baby-Mandelas-jail--learned-love-hated-prisoner-Guards-amazing-act-mercy-let-Tata-Madiba-hold-grandchild-time.html#ixzz4A7sWHeOA Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

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Are there simple systems?

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Diversity of systems

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A system is a way of looking at the world.Structure (Capability to understand)ComplicatedSimplify to make the model understandableSimpleOrderedComplexChaoticBehaviour (Capability to predict)

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A system is a way of looking at the world .Structure (Capability to understand)ComplicatedSimplify to make the model understandableSimpleOrderedComplexChaoticBehaviour (Capability to predict)

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A system is a way of looking at the world .Structure (Capability to understand)ComplicatedSimplify to make the model understandableSimpleOrderedComplexChaoticBehaviour (Capability to predict)

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A system is a way of looking at the world .Structure (Capability to understand)ComplicatedSimplify to make the model understandableSimpleOrderedComplexChaoticBehaviour (Capability to predict)

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A system is a way of looking at the world .Structure (Capability to understand)ComplicatedSimplify to make the model understandableSimpleOrderedComplexChaoticBehaviour (Capability to predict)

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A system is a way of looking at the world .Structure (Capability to understand)ComplicatedSimplify to make the model understandableSimpleOrderedComplexChaoticBehaviour (Capability to predict)

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A system is a way of looking at the world .Structure (Capability to understand)ComplicatedSimplify to make the model understandableSimpleOrderedComplexChaoticBehaviour (Capability to predict)

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netA system is a way of looking at the world .Structure (Capability to understand)ComplicatedSimplify to make the model understandableSimpleOrderedComplexChaoticBehaviour (Capability to predict)

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netA system is a way of looking at the world .Structure (Capability to understand)ComplicatedSimplify to make the model understandableSimpleOrderedComplexChaoticBehaviour (Capability to predict)

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netA system is a way of looking at the world .Structure (Capability to understand)ComplicatedSimplify to make the model understandableSimpleOrderedComplexChaoticBehaviour (Capability to predict)

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netIt may be: Tightly coupled. Everything may influence everything.Multi dynamics. Changes may occur at many scales and levels.Counterintuitive. Cause and effect may be distant in time and/or space. Policy resistant. Obvious solutions to problems fail or actually worsen the situation.Non-linear. Long term behaviour is often different from short term behaviour.

A system must be thought considering:

[email protected] huntingmammoths.nettiny actions can have a huge effect, like giving a single flower to the mate Depending on how you teach good behavior you can obtain more rebellionEscalation. for instance some arguments and discussions may finish as messy fightsCounterintuitive: Relationship may be destroyed by an addiction that has not an immediate effect, like watching TV every night instead of speaking about the day.

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System thinking technique

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Map of the sessionSystems ThinkingIntegrative ThinkingDesign ThinkingDifficultiesiMistakesCases DefinitionTVLoveHealthITEcologyPolitics DevelopmentTechniquesIshikawa diagramCausal LoopsObjectivesReview

v.1v.2Complexity (SPR)Education. Analytical / SystemicPygmalion effectDiversity of systemsStructure BehaviourExercice

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Creative thinking goes further than design but it is inspired on how designers work...Design thinking. Creative system analysis approach

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netDesign is more a way of thinking than a process

... Should be a central discipline in all professions. Design thinking. Creative system analysis approach

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750millions each day.Design thinking. Creative system analysis approach

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Ideas?Design thinking. Creative system analysis approach

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...more ideas?Design thinking. Creative system analysis approach

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+ =Its just another idea?Design thinking. Creative system analysis approach

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Design thinking. Creative system analysis approach

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netEverything is connected to everything else.The more complex and less tangible the designed artifact is, though, the less feasible it is for the designer to ignore its potential ripple effects.

Real life is lived in a complex world system where all the subsystems overlap and affect each other. The common mistake is to deal with one subsystem in isolation, as if it didnt connect with anything else. This almost always backfires as other subsystems respond in unanticipated ways.

2. You can never do just one thing.

This follows from the preceding idea. In addition to the immediate effect of an action, there will always be other consequences of it that ripple through the system. Every action has unintended consequences.

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77EmpathyRationalityImaginationDesign thinking. Creative system analysis approach

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Map of the sessionSystems ThinkingIntegrative ThinkingDesign ThinkingDifficultiesiMistakesCases DefinitionTVLoveHealthITEcologyPolitics DevelopmentTechniquesIshikawa diagramCausal LoopsObjectivesReview

v.1v.2Complexity (SPR)Education. Analytical / SystemicPygmalion effectDiversity of systemsStructure BehaviourExercice

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Ishikawa diagram.

Causal loops (Balancing / reinforcing).

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Ishikawa diagram.

Categories and subcategories?Flux ?Hierarchies?More than one placeCentrality of one componentVisual synthesisMay be enhanced by adding connections among the components

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Ishikawa diagram.

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Causal loops (Balancing/reinforcing).Regulate system behaviour Positive feedback

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Causal loops (Balancing/reinforcing).

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Causal loops (Balancing/reinforcing).

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http://dupress.com/articles/internet-of-things-data-security-and-privacy/Flux of information in systems

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netSmart, connected objects offer tremendous opportunities for value creation and capture, but can also create tremendous risk, demanding new strategies for value protection. A single vulnerable device can leave an entire ecosystem open to attack, with potential disruptions ranging from individual privacy breaches to massive breakdowns of public systems.

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A collection of things is a system if any one element can affect the performance of the whole.Flux of information in systems

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netA collection of things is a system if any one element can affect the performance of the whole.

There is no inherent end to the system. The boundaries of a system are arbitrary, defined by the observer. Systems analysis is finding connection in patterns. A threshold question in systems analysis is, What level of the whole do you seek to know? For example, it has been observed that business is part of a larger system constructively understood as such. For example, business decisions affect the economy, environment, community, and industry, as well as the mental health and well-being of employees and their families, and the wealth of investors.86

TaskUnderstanding and predicting.

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Apply a System Thinking method to understand a model and predict its behaviour.Objective Do not confuse system whit projectValue is the resultThinking is hard needs an effort This is an exercvice of thinking Need connevct and attention be careful with being tired

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123Model,Understand, Predict!List and order the elements of a system using a Ishikawa diagram.Build a system model whit the previous components using a B/R loop.Check the potential impact of actions into the system using the previous models.

Tasks

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Tasks 1. Model,List & order the elements of a system using a causal loop.

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netTasks 2. Understand,Build a system model whit components using a B/R loop

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netTasks 3. Predict.Check the potential impact of actions

[email protected] huntingmammoths.netTasks 3. Predict.Check the potential impact of actions

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[email protected] huntingmammoths.netCheck upBlood test, blood pressure, etc.

Diagnostic testsRadiology, magnetic resonance imaging, etc.

Chronic careDiseases for life or long time.

UrgenciesA flu, a broken arm, etc.

Acute careA heart attack, a cancer, etc.

Health education Citizens level of health knowledge.

AddictionsCigarettes, drinks, stupefies, etc.

NutritionCorrect habits and healthy eating.

Environment Levels of pollution in air, water quality, etc.

Exercise Physical activity, sports, etc.

WorkplaceHealthy places for workers.

Public coverageUniversal health assistance.

Private coveragePrivately contracted health insurance.

Health authoritiesBodies & institutions managing the health system.

Health servicesHospitals, primary care centres, etc.

Hoja1simulationcounterAvoiding predators and capturing presesTimeFrogSlugSnakeFrogSlugSnake0Total80824eating444new individuals00012eaten444natural death000no eating or eated000TimeFrogSlugSnakeFrogSlugSnake1Total88824eating444new individuals44412eaten444natural death000no eating or eated000TimeFrogSlugSnakeFrogSlugSnake2Total88824eating444new individuals44412eaten444natural death000no eating or eated000TimeFrogSlugSnakeFrogSlugSnake3Total88824eating444new individuals44412eaten444natural death000no eating or eated000TimeFrogSlugSnakeFrogSlugSnake4Total88824eating444new individuals44412eaten444natural death000no eating or eated000TimeFrogSlugSnakeFrogSlugSnake5Total88824eating444new individuals44412eaten444natural death000no eating or eated000TimeFrogSlugSnakeReproductionFrogSlugSnake6Total88824eating444new individuals44412eaten444natural death000no eating or eated000TimeFrogSlugSnakeReproductionFrogSlugSnake7Total88824eating444new individuals44412eaten444natural death000no eating or eated000