H.N. WangH.N. Wang

Key Laboratory of Solar ActivityKey Laboratory of Solar Activity

National Astronomical ObservatoryNational Astronomical Observatory

Chinese Academy of SciencesChinese Academy of Sciences

SDO data for solar activity forecastsSDO data for solar activity forecasts

Although missions such as SOHO and TRACE have taught us much about the solar influences on space weather, we still do not fully understand all sources of space weather nor can we reliably predict energetic particle eruptions or solar wind variations. Likewise, although we have learned much about the structure and dynamics of the solar interior and the evolution of active region magnetic fields, we still don't understand the solar dynamo and can't reliably predict the size of the next solar cycle or the emergence of the next active region. ---http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Outline Outline

1. Characteristics of SDO data 1. Characteristics of SDO data

2. Requirements from forecasting 2. Requirements from forecasting operationoperation

3. SDO data and space weather3. SDO data and space weather

1.1. Characteristics of SDO dataCharacteristics of SDO data

• Multipl wave ranges • High spatial, temporal and spectral resolution• Image and spectrum• Physical parameters derived from observational

data: Intensity field, velocity field, magnetic field

temperature,density, electric current,……

wave bands10:EUV, UV,WL

wave range 0.1nm-105nm

central cave length: 617.3 nm FeI

spatial res.: 1.5”cadence: 10sFOV: >full disk

spectral res.: wave range depandence cadence: 10s

spatial res.: ~1”time intervel:Doppler and LOS field 45s

Vector field 135s

FOV: >full disk

image spectrum image

94A 131A 171A

193A 211A

304A 335A 1600A

WH-4500A6173A

1-70A SAM rotation image

Soft X-ray –EUV spectrumCourtesy EVE Team

Vector magnetic fieldCourtesy HMI Team and K. Hayashi

LOS magnetic fieldCourtesy HMI Team and Y. Liu

2. Requirements 2. Requirements from forecasting operationfrom forecasting operation

• Long & mid-term forecasting

(longer than 3days)

Daily or monthly fluctuations are smoothed

• Short-term forecasting

(shorter than 3days) and nowcasting SDO data with multipl wave ranges,high

spatial, temporal and spectral resolution will provide precursors of solar eruptions.

• Forecasting model

Accumulated data are very helpful

HMI data provide key parameters for solar dynamo model.

HMI data can be used for detecting sunspot dynamics and solar far-side active regions.

EVE data describe solar EUV irradiance variations due to solar rotation (days), and solar cycle (years).

2.1 Long & mid-term forecasting

Long & mid-term forecasting

Multipl wave ranges =multipl layers in solar atmosphere

2.2 Short-term forecasting and nowcasting

High spatial&temporal resolution = high quolity movies of multipal layers

evolutions of solar magnetic parameters (flux, gradient, current dengsity, magnetic &current helicity,…)

Short-term forecasting and nowcasting

Courtesy HMI Team and Y. Liu

Short-term forecasting and nowcasting

High spectral&temporal resolution =EUV irradiance variations due to solar flares.

May 7, 2010; C2.0 – Long (courtesy: Chamberlin)

May 7, 2010; C2.0 – Long (courtesy: Chamberlin)

We believe that SDO data will play important role in modeling for solar activity forecast.

Previous space and gruand based observational data have been widely used in forecasting model. A part of models is prensented here.

2.3 Forecasting model

活动区磁场等效距离参数 :

Ed = (Rn+Rs)/Rns

= 2.0969

Guo J., Chumak O. et al., 2005, 2006

(Xs,Ys)Rns

Rs

(Xn,Yn)

Rn

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Magnetograms

Length of strong-gradient main Neutral Line:a measures of active region complexity that is promising as a predictor of CMEs Falconer, et al, 2002, 2003, 2006

Horizontal gradient

Length of neotal line Number of singgular point

1unit =1 pixel

AR 9574AR 9574 （（ 8/11/2008/11/20011））

Magnetic complexity of photospheric fieldMagnetic complexity of photospheric field

HSOS HSOS magnetogrammagnetogram

Cui et al, 2006, 2007Cui et al, 2006, 2007

Solar flare productivity and magnetic measuresSolar flare productivity and magnetic measuressamples: 1997-2004, number >23,000samples: 1997-2004, number >23,000（（ Cui, Y. M. et al , 2006; Wang, H. N. et al, 2009Cui, Y. M. et al , 2006; Wang, H. N. et al, 2009 ））

Maximun of horizontal gradient Maximun of horizontal gradient

Number of singular pointsNumber of singular pointsLength of neotral linesLength of neotral lines

Testing samples

Physical parameters

Magnetic complexity

Training samples

Physical parameters

Magnetic complexity

Artificial intelligence   Training model

Test

Results

Modeling with artificial intelligence (NAOC)Li, R. et al, 2007; Wang, H. N., 2008, Yu, D. R., et al, 2009, 2010Li, R. et al, 2007; Wang, H. N., 2008, Yu, D. R., et al, 2009, 2010

Model testing resultsfor M flares in 2001

>=M

corr

ecti

onra

te

<M c

orre

ctio

nra

te

miss

ing

rate

fals

e ra

te

0. 00%

20. 00%

40. 00%

60. 00%

80. 00%

100. 00%

>=M correcti on rate

<M correcti on rate

mi ssi ng rate

fal se rate

Model testing resultsfor SEPs in 2004

SEP

corr

ecti

onra

te

Non-

SEP

corr

ecti

onra

te

miss

ing

rate

fals

e ra

te

0. 00%

20. 00%

40. 00%

60. 00%

80. 00%

100. 00%

SEP correcti on rate

Non-SEP correcti on rate

mi ssi ng rate

fal se rate

Kusano et al., 2008

Precursors of solar eruptions from theoretical modelsPrecursors of solar eruptions from theoretical models

Lin & Forbes 2000

Precursors of solar eruptionsPrecursors of solar eruptions

Photosphere:Photosphere: Morphology of magnetic fieldMorphology of magnetic field (magnetic types, neotral lines, singgular (magnetic types, neotral lines, singgular points)points)

Non-potentiality of magnetic field (shear, Non-potentiality of magnetic field (shear, strong gradient, magnetic & current helicity) strong gradient, magnetic & current helicity)

Evolution of magnetic fieldEvolution of magnetic field (flux emerging & cancellation, shear and twist (flux emerging & cancellation, shear and twist motion )motion )

Chromoshere and coronaChromoshere and corona Filaments, filament oscillation, repetitive Filaments, filament oscillation, repetitive surges, cavities, sigmoidssurges, cavities, sigmoids

Chen, P. f., et al. 2008Chen, P. f., et al. 2008

Prominences and cavity Prominences and cavity

MLSO MLSO

SXT/YohkohSXT/Yohkoh XRT/HinodeXRT/Hinode

http://solar.physics.montana.edu/canfield/sigmoids.shtmlhttp://solar.physics.montana.edu/canfield/sigmoids.shtmlhttp://solar.physics.montana.edu/press/XRT_Sigmoid.htmlhttp://solar.physics.montana.edu/press/XRT_Sigmoid.html

PhotospherePhotosphere Chromoshere Chromoshere and coronaand corona

free energy free energy buildingbuilding

magnetic types, magnetic types, neotral lines, neotral lines, singgular pointssinggular points

shear, strong shear, strong gradient, magnetic & gradient, magnetic & current helicity, current helicity,

filaments,filaments,

sigmoids,sigmoids,

cavities,…cavities,…

What’s new from What’s new from SDO Data?SDO Data?

eruption eruption triggeringtriggering

flux emerging & flux emerging & cancellation, shear cancellation, shear and twist motion,and twist motion,

sunspot dynamics,…sunspot dynamics,…

Filament oscillation, Filament oscillation, repetitive surges, …repetitive surges, …

What’s new from What’s new from SDO Data?SDO Data?

Precursors of solar eruptionsPrecursors of solar eruptions

3. SDO and space weather3. SDO and space weather

Convection-zone dynamics and solar dynamo origin and evolution of sunspots, active regions and complexes of activity (HMI);

Sources and drivers of solar activity and disturbances(HMI);

Links between the internal processes and dynamics of the corona and heliosphere(HMI,AIA,EVE);

The irradiance of the Sun that produces the ionosphere (AIA,EVE);

The sources of radiation and how they evolve. (EVE ,AIA);

Precursors of solar disturbances for space-weather forecasts(HMI,AIA,EVE).

SDO data and space weatherSolar Dynamo

Global Circulation

Irradiance Sources

Far-side Imaging

Solar Subsurface Weather

Coronal Magnetic Field

Magnetic Connectivity

Sunspot Dynamics

Magnetic Stresses

Interior Structure

NOAA 9393

Far-side

Courtesy HMI Team and Y. Liu

HMI+AIA+EVE

HMI+AIA+EVE

HMI

HMI

HMI

HMI

HMI

HMI

HMI

Thanks !Thanks !