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Ho Chi Minh CityWednesday, 5th July, 2017

Ho Chi Minh City, VietnamWEDNESDAY 5th July 2017

Reverie Saigon

Opening RemarksHang Dang, Managing Director, Vietnam

Macro UpdateRecent Trends on Capital Markets Hospitality Market: Beyond APEC 2017Dung Duong, Head of Research & Consulting, CBRE Vietnam

Commercial Market: The Rise of Millennials,Co-working Space, and Young Demographics RetailingHieu Le, Head of Occupier Leasing, CBRE Vietnam

Residential Market: How Demand is ShiftingKiet Vo, Head of Residential Project Marketing, CBRE Vietnam

Close

09:00am

09:05am

09:35am

10:05am

10:35am

AGENDA

Macro Updates

4

MARKET INSIGHTSREAL ESTATE

Q 2 / 2 0 1 7E C O N O M Y

Despite absence of the TPP, Vietnam looks confident to attract strong inflow of investment

Source: Press articles were retrieved in June 19th 2017.

5


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7E C O N O M Y

Real Estate Industry is Next Up for Disruption


Frontier Digital Ventures invests in AutoDeal, PropzyPropzy - an online classifieds platform that originates and facilitates property sale and leasing transactions in Vietnam.

6


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7E C O N O M Y

Proposals toward Transparency, Consistency and Sustainability


Green buildings are expected to become a new trend in the low‐and medium‐priced housing segments.

7


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7E C O N O M Y

Still Solid Fundamentals

Source: Vietnamese General Statistics Office, commercial banks.

GDP, CPI and Basic Rates

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 6M 2017

GD

P g

row

th r

ate

(%)

Inte

rest

rat

e (%

)

Average CPI (y-o-y) Lending rate Deposit rate GDP Growth Rate

8


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7E C O N O M Y

Vietnam is Becoming Increasingly More Attractive to Foreign Investors

Source: Vietnamese General Statistics Office.

6M 2017

Total FDI 6M 2017: US$19.2 billions

54.8% y-o-y

Vietnam’s FDI, 6M 2017 Vietnam’s CEO Survey, May 2017

Source: Vietnam CEO’s Survey by Oxford Business Group, May 2017

“ 70% of top-level executives expect positive business conditions in the next 12 months. Some 20% expect the commercial environment to be very positive, while just 10% of those interviewed thought the months ahead will be negative.

”

33%

44%

11%

2%

4%6% Manufacturing

Utility Production,DistributionMining

Retail and wholesale,vehiclesReal Estate

9


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7I N F R A S T R U C T U R E

HCMC – Diversifying Public Transport SystemMetro line no. 1

Underground packagestarted on 26 May 2017

Water bus

Trial ride at the endof June. First route

operates in July

Bicycle

Possibility to Develop a Bike -Sharing System in Ho Chi Minh City

Route: An Lac roundabout to Rach Chiec terminalLength: 23kmOperation in: 2019

First BRT line

10



HCMC – Tan Son Nhat Airport Expansion Plan

• Capacity: 25-45 million passenger per year• Plan to finalised in Dec 2017

Source: VNExpress, CafeF, Baomoi.

Tan Son Nhat airport - Expansion

To local departure

To int’ departure

H H

H

H

H

H

Around ten buildings in HCMC have helipads, including Diamond Plaza, Bitexco Financial Tower and Tan Son Nhat Saigon Hotel.

11



Involvement of Local Developers in Building Metro Lines

26

Noi Bai Airport

7

Me Linh

4

1Yen Vien

Nhu Quynh

1

8

Duong Xa

Yen So

Ngoc Hoi

Ha Dong

2A

8

Son Dong

Troi

Ba Vi

5 3

3

Me Linh

Lien Ha

Cat Linh

Under Planning

2AUnder Construction –About to be opened

3 Under Construction

Nhon

Hanoi Station

12



Hanoi – Active Construction on New Key Roads

Completed Under-construction

Truong ChinhUnder-construction (2018)

Nguyen Van Cu – Co Linh Completed – 1/2017 Pham Van Dong Road

Under-construction (2017)

3

4

11

Le Duc Tho – Xuan Phuong Completed – 4/2017

2

Nguyen Xien – Xa La Under-construction (2017)

5

Nguyen Van Cu – Co Linh Completed (1/2017)

O Cho Dua – Voi PhucApproved for Upgrade

6

World’s costliest? Hanoi plans to spend over $342mn building 2.2km road

Capital Market

14


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7I N V E S T M E N T

Investment Channels

775.5 points

23% y-o-y

22,400VND

0.5% y-o-y

36.3M VND

10% y-o-y

Source: Vietnamese General Statistics Office, FTP Securities, SJC.

Return from Different Asset Classes

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jun

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

June

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

June

2014 2015 2016 2017

Inde

x

VN-Index Local Gold USD/VND

15


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7I N V E S T M E N T

Investors Shift to Seek for Yield Spread

Source: CBRE Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey, 2016 and 2017.

VIETNAM IS INCREASINGLY APPEALING TO

FOREIGN INVESTORS.

Main Investment Motivation in Real Estate

Prime Office Yield Relative to 10-year Government Bond

Percentage of 504 responses. 80% of respondents were companies domiciled in Asia Pacific and the other 20% were domiciled primarily in Western Europe, the Middle East and North America.

16


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7I N V E S T M E N T

Strong Fundamentals

Source: Ministry of Tourism.

-10%

5%

20%

35%

-

5

10

15

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

1H

20

17

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

)

Arr

ival

s (M

illio

n pe

rson

s)

International arrivals Growth rate

Strong Growth of Tourist Arrivals to Vietnam

Source: CBRE Research, New Channels for Old Favourites, 2017

Strong Prime Retail Rental Growth

Source: CBRE Vietnam.

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

HC

MC

Mum

bai

Gua

ngzh

ou

Shan

ghai

Beiji

ng

Han

oi

Shen

zhen

Bang

kok

New

Del

hi

Sing

apor

e% G

row

th r

ate

17


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7

0

10

20

30

40

50

-

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H 2017

No.

of tr

ansa

ctio

ns

Tran

sact

ion

valu

e (U

S$ m

illio

n)

Commercial Mixed use Residential No. of transaction

I N V E S T M E N T

Local Investors Dominate

Dislaimer: Transastion includes deals above US$10 million. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.

Source: CBRE Vietnam, RCA.

SELLER

BUYER

100% Local

0% Local

97% Local

31% Local

Vietnam Investment Volume

18


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7I N V E S T M E N T

Notable Transactions in 1H 2017

Source: RCA retrieved in Jun ‘17, Vietnam Investment Review.

Hanoi TimesSquare, Hanoi

Vinaland divested from Thang Long Property

» Elite Capital Resources

The Everrich 3, District 7, HCMCPhat Dat Real Estate

» Unknown buyer

Dai Phuoc Lotus,Dong NaiVinacapital

» CFLD

Bau Bang UrbanArea & Industrial Park,

Binh DuongBecamex

» Paiho Group

~US$80 mil.198.5 ha

US$12 mil.2.5 ha

US$64 mil.4 ha

9.9 ha

Diamond RiceFlower, Hanoi

Kinh Bac Corporation

» Growing Sun Investment US$250 mil.4.2 ha

Site in Ha Dong Hanoi

BIM Group

» Aeon Mall Vietnam

Lotte/Ciputra MallHanoiUDIC

» Lotte Group

23 Le DuanD1, HCMC

Auction

» Tan Hoang Minh Group

CII Land PlotD2, HCMC

CII

» Hong Kong Land

9.5 ha

7.3 ha

3,025 sqm

7,000 sqm

Q1 2

017

Q2 2

017

19


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7I N V E S T M E N T

Local Developers Seek Funding from Alternative Sources


Financing option Quarter Developer Value US$ mil. Remark

Debt financing Q2 2017 Sacomreal 13 Bond with fixed rate: 11%, tenure: 1 year

Equity raising Q2 2017 SonKim Land 100EXS Capital closed the first round of US$46 million, out of an expected US$100 million follow-on fundraising for SonKim Land

Joint Venture Q2 2017 Nam Long 50% of US$348 mil.

JV with Hankyu Realty, Nishi Nippon Railroad to developMizuki Park, 16 ha in HCMC. This JV was formed last year to develop Flora Sakura, Fuji Residence and KikyoResidence in District 9.

Joint Venture Q1 2017 CII ~US$115 mil. project valueJV with Hong Kong Land to develop 96,000sm development site in District 2

Equity raising Q4 2016 Novaland 120 70% of investors are foreign

Joint Venture Q3 2016 Bitexco 290JV with Mitsubishi Corporation to develop the Manor Central Park in Hoang Mai, Hanoi

Equity raising Q3 2016 FLC 480 From existing shareholders

Debt financing Q2 2016 Nam Long 22 Convertible bond due in 2020, rate 7%

20


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7I N V E S T M E N T

Pending Projects Revitalised

D1mension Kenton Node Thuan Kieu Plaza

HCMC Hanoi

The K-Park, Van Phu NUA


Old

ph

oto

sN

ew p

ho

tos

Booyoung Vina

HOSPITALITY MARKETBeyond APEC 2017

22


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7H O S P I TA L I T Y

APEC 2017 - An opportunity to showcase Vietnam

Da Nang Airport - International Terminal

Preparations for Summit Week in Nov 2017 Da Nang Airport - International Terminal Da Nang International Media Center Ariyana Danang Exhibition & Convention Center Sheraton Da Nang InterContinental Danang Sun Peninsula upgrade

APEC in numbers 21 nations 200 events across 10 cities of Vietnam 1,000 business leaders 10,000 delegates during Summit Week

Hanoi HCMCDa

NangHa Long

NhaTrang

Hue Vinh Hoi An Can ThoNinhBinh

Source: Vietnam News, CBRE Vietnam.

23


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7H O S P I TA L I T Y

International Visitors

International Visitors to Major Cities

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Nha Trang Phu Quoc

Pers

ons

2014 2015 2016 1H 2017

1H 201772% y-o-y

30% y-o-y

International Arrivalsto Da Nang

to Vietnam

Source: Cities’ Departments of Tourism, CBRE Vietnam.

80% y-o-yto Nha Trang

24


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7H O S P I TA L I T Y

Source: STR Global, CBRE Hotels.Note: Data from 4-5 star hotels; Q2 only includes April and May

No New Supply

US$111.2ADR

73%OCC

▼ 2% y-o-y

▼ 5% q-o-q

▲ 6 ppts y-o-y

▼ 3 ppts q-o-q

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2014 2015 2016 1H2017

2017F 2018F 2019F

Num

ber

of k

eys

No New Supply

US$112.0ADR

86% OCC

▲ 7% y-o-y

▼ 1% q-o-q

▲ 11 ppts y-o-y

▲ 1 ppts q-o-q

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2014 2015 2016 1H2017

2017F 2018F 2019F

Num

ber

of k

eys

HANOIHCMC

City hotels – No new upscale hotel openings in 1H2017

4-5 Star Hotel Supply 4-5 Star Hotel Supply

25


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7H O S P I TA L I T Y

City hotels – Hanoi hotels continue to outperform

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

30

60

90

120

150

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

Occ

upan

cy (%

)

USD

/roo

m/n

ight

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

30

60

90

120

150

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

Occ

upan

cy (%

)

USD

/roo

m/n

ight

Source: STR Global, CBRE Hotels.Note: Data from 4-5 star hotels; Q2 only includes April and May

HANOIHCMC

26


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7H O S P I TA L I T Y

Source: CBRE Vietnam, REIC.

2017

2018 – 2020

1. Hilton Saigon – 350 keys

2. Union Square Hotel – ~300 keys

3. Spirit of Saigon – 250 keys

4. Lavenue Crown Hotel – 235 keys

5. Okura Prestige Saigon Hotel – 250 keys

6. Mai House Saigon – 219 keys

1

No new future supply

2

3 4

56

HCMC – Notable Future 4-5 Star Hotels

27


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7H O S P I TA L I T Y

Hanoi – Notable Future 4-5 Star Hotels


1. Mercure Hanoi – 380 keys

2. Novotel Suites Hanoi – Thai Ha – 300 keys

3. Intercontinental Landmark 72 – 359 keys

1. Hilton Hanoi Westlake – 250 keys

2. Hanoi Aqua Central -138 keys

3. Dong Do Hotel – N/A

4. Westin Hanoi – N/A

5. Four Seasons Hotel Hanoi – 100 keys

6. 10 Tran Ngyen Han Site – N/A

21 3

12

53

2017

2018 – 2020

28


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7H O S P I TA L I T Y

4-5 starHotel

Second-home Villa

Condo-tel Length of coastline

4,380rooms

648units

1,263units

50km

7,463rooms

771units

6,769Units

~100km

9,204rooms

1,180units

10,183units

200km

4,500rooms

1,788units

982units

135Km

21,163rooms

4,413units

12,309units

140 Km


PHUKET

Coastal Markets – by 1H 2017

Quy Nhon

Quang Binh

PHU QUOC

NHA TRANG

DA NANG

HA LONG

Ho Tram

29


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7

BĐS NGHỈ DƯỠNG BÁN – KHẢ NĂNG TIÊU THỤ

2015

Nha Trang

2016

Phu Quoc

2015 2016

850 units576 units

300 units

2015 2016

Da Nang

4,530 units

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2017. Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2017. Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2017.

H O S P I TA L I T Y

Second Home Market Sales

1H 2017

377 units

1H 2017

978 units

1H 2017

970 units1,050 units

5,190 units

30


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7H O S P I TA L I T Y

Note: Yields were surveyed at selected high-end projects and might not represent the entire market.

• Rental yield: 4-6%• Guaranteed yield: 6-7%

(5-15 years)


(5-10 years)


(5-10 years)


(5-10 years)

DA NANG

NHA TRANG

PHUKETPHU QUOC


High-end condo-tels High-end condo-tels

Second Home Villas Second Home Villas

Rental Yield & Guaranteed Yield

31


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7H O S P I TA L I T Y

Operators - More Brands to Arrive

Upc

omin

gEx

istin

g

Note: Not all brands are listed above

32


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7H O S P I TA L I T Y

Nha Trang – strong influx of condo-tel developments

* Only 4‐5 star hotelsSource: CBRE Vietnam; Photo Credit: Nguyen The Duong

108 93

1 Vinpearl Beachfront Condotel - 40Fl 6 Ibis Styles Hotel - 25Fl 11 Havana Nha Trang Plaza - 42Fl 16 Gold Coast Condotel - 40Flx2

2 Starcity Nha Trang - 21Fl 7 Panorama Condotel - 39Fl 12 Ariyana Smart Condotel - 28Fl 17 Ocean Gate - 40Fl

3 Citadines Bayfront Nha Trang - 26Fl 8 AB Central Square - 36Fl 13 The Costa-InterCon Hotel - 19Fl-29Fl 18 Muong Thanh Grand Hotel - 48Fl

4 Muong Thanh Luxury Hotel - 45Fl 9 Vinpearl Empire - 41Fl 14 Sheraton Hotel - 33Fl 19 Royal Marina Complex - 32Flx2

5 Novotel Hotel - 18Fl 10 Tropicana - 49Fl x 2 15 Nha Trang Center - 20Fl

2

1 7 12 16 17 19

151413114 5 6

Completed Projects Future Projects

18

Q2 2017: 14,871 (hotel* + condo-tel + villa) completed keys By 2020: 36,715 keys

33


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7H O S P I TA L I T Y

2

1 9 11

8

1 Cocobay – 50F 6 Premier Heritage – 26-35 Fl x 5 11 Alphanam Luxury- 33Fl 16 Katsutoshi Grand house- 22Fl

2 Ocean Suites - 9Fl 7 Hyatt Place 12 Fusion Suites – 21F 17 Citadines Blue Cove - 27Fl x 2

3 Anvie Resort – 18Fl 8 OceanViews- 21Fl 13 Vinpearl Riverfront – 36 Fl 18 Southern Tran Thi Ly Bridge

4 Hyatt Regency – 12FL 9 Wynham Soleil – 50Fl x 4 14 Novaland – 29Fl

5 Ariyana Resort & Suites- 25Fl x 3 10 Central Coast - 39Fl 15 Fhome – 27Fl x 2


6 10 13

15

177

4

35

12

1618 14

So is Da Nang


* Only 4‐5 star hotelsSource: CBRE Vietnam; Photo Credit: Nguyen The Duong

34


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7H O S P I TA L I T Y

1 Vinpearl Phu Quoc Resort 6 Movenpick Phu Quoc 11 Salinda Phu Quoc 16 InterContinental Phu Quoc

2 Grand World 7 Chen Sea Resort 12 Mercure Phu Quoc 17 JW Marriott Phu Quoc

3 Starbay 8 The Shells 13 Sol Beach House Phu Quoc 18 Premier Village Phu Quoc

4 Nam Nghi 9 La Veranda Resort 14 Sonasea Villas & Resort 19 Hon Thom Resort

5 Fusion Resort Phu Quoc 10 Long Beach Resort 15 Sunset Sanato Resort 20


Phu Quoc also quickly catching up

* Only 4‐5 star hotelsSource: CBRE Vietnam.

191

45 7

89 10

1112 13 142 3 6 15 16 17 18


35


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7H O S P I TA L I T Y

Re-emergence of Ho Tram

132

45

67

89

1 Vietsovpetro 7 Carmelina Beach Resort

2 The Hamptons Ho Tram 8 Gallery Villas

3 Ho Tram Beach Boutique Resort 9 The Grand Ho Tram

4 Club Med 10 The Grand Ho Tram Phase 2

5 The Sanctuary 11 The Grand Ho Tram Phase 3

6 The Sanctuary Phase 2

10

11

Q2 2017: 1,300 (hotel + condo-tel + villa) completed keys By 2020: ~7,000 keys

* Only 4‐5 star hotelsSource: CBRE Vietnam

Completed Projects

Future Projects

36


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7H O S P I TA L I T Y

Quang Ninh – Bustling with new developmentsStrongly improved infrastructure increasingly boosts tourism and investments

6 18 45N

o. o

f ho

tels

in

Qua

ngN

inh

Van Don

VAN DON

International Airport(under construction)

US$2 bn Casino Project

Hotel Cluster

COMMERCIAL MARKETThe rise of millennials, Co-working space and

Young demographics retailing

38


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7O F F I C E

Market Snapshot Q2 2017

GRADE AGRADE B

No New Supply

▲ 7.5% y-o-y▲ 2.2% q-o-q

▼ 8.5 ppts y-o-y▼ 2.0 ppts q-o-q

▲ 1.7% y-o-y▼ 1.7% q-o-q

▲ 1.2 ppts y-o-y▼ 1.1 ppts q-o-q

US$ 24.1 psm pm

11.2% Vacancy

No New SupplyUS$ 36.3 psm pm

5.3% Vacancy

24,051 sm NLA New Supply

US$ 13.6psm pm

17.4%Vacancy

23,620 sm NLANew Supply

US$ 21.0psm pm

4%Vacancy

▼ 1.1% y-o-y▲ 0.4% q-o-q

▲ 0.9 ppts y-o-y▲ 1.0 ppts q-o-q

▲ 4.7% y-o-y▼ 4.0% q-o-q

▲ 0.4 ppts y-o-y▲ 1.4 ppts q-o-q

Source: CBRE Vietnam.Asking rents are quoted excluding service charge and VAT

HANOIHCMC

39


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7O F F I C E

HCMC – 2017 is the Year of Decentralization


Viettel Complex Q2 2017

Mapletree Business Center

Q1 2017

Saigon Giai Phong

Newspaper Q1 2017

Deutsches HausQ3 2017

Etown Central Q4 2017

Saigon Centre P2 Q3 2017

40


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7O F F I C E

Hanoi – Decentralization is a continued trend


Sun SquareQ1 2017

Horison TowerQ2 2017

HUD TowerQ2 2017

Discovery Complex2H 2017

DSD Building2H 2017

Richy Tower2H 2017

41


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7O F F I C E

HCMC - Now in Top 40 of World's Most Expensive Office Markets

Hanoi - Improving Grade A Performance


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

Vaca

ncy

Rate

(%

)

Ask

ing

Rent

(U

S$/s

m/m

onth

)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

Vaca

ncy

Rate

(%

)

Ask

ing

Rent

s (U

S$ p

sm p

m)

Asking Rents recorded are exclusive of Service Charge and VAT.

HANOIHCMC

42


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7O F F I C E

Net Absorption: Demand shifted toward decentralized areas


(20,000)

0

20,000

40,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

Net

Abs

orpt

ion

(sm

)

CBD Midtown West Others

HANOI

HCMC

(10,000)0

10,00020,00030,00040,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

Net

Abs

orpt

ion

(sm

)

CBD District 1 District 3 District 7 Others (D4, 5, 10, Tan Binh, Binh Thanh, Phu Nhuan)

43


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7O F F I C E

Co-Working Space: Alternative Supply and Anchor Tenant

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Primed for Growth, Co-working Space in Vietnam.

44


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7O F F I C E

Diversifying Demand

Q2 2017Q1 2017

HA

NO

IH

CM

C

New-to-market letting

Relocation & Expansion

16%

84%

18%

82%HANOIDemand remains strong in traditional sectors

HCMCManufacturing, Real Estate and Telecommunication to step up

Finance and Banking20%

Manufacturing20% - 24%

IT/Technology9%

New-to-market letting

Relocation & Expansion

21%

79%

9%

91%

Real Estate/ Construction 19%

Telecommunication/ Media 10%

Source: Based on CBRE Vietnam’s enquiries, 2017 y-t-d.

45


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7O F F I C E

Preferred Leasing Space is Getting Larger

HANOI

HCMC


0%20%40%60%80%

100%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017<100sm 100sm - 299sm 300sm - 699sm 700sm - 1000sm >1000sm

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

46


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7O F F I C E

Large Office Leasing Transactions in 1H 2017


No. District Industry Leasing area (sm)

HCMC District 7 Transportation 2,400

HCMC District 7 Home furniture 2,000

HCMC Binh Thanh District Merchandising 1,133

HCMC District 10 Technology 1,019

HCMC District 1 F&B 1,000

HCMC District 1 Business Center 1,000

HCMC Tan Binh District Fashion 975

Hanoi Ba Dinh IT 5,000

Hanoi Tu Liem Manufacturing 1,300

Hanoi Tu Liem Manufacturing 1,300

Hanoi Ba Dinh Logistics 1,000

Hanoi Hoan Kiem Real Estate 1,000

Hanoi Tu Liem Construction 800

Hanoi Tu Liem IT 800

Hanoi Ba Dinh Pharmaceuticals 800

47


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7O F F I C E

HCMC – Future Supply


2018 - 2020

1. Saigon M&C, D1 – GFA: 49,000 sm

2. VietCapital Center, D1 – GFA: 38,621 sm

3. CapitaLand at VGR, D1 – GFA: N/A sm

4. SJC Tower, D1 – GFA: 38,000 sm

5. Tax Center, D1 – GFA: 35,000 sm

6. Nexus Tower, D1 – GFA: 133,834 sm

7. One Hub, D9 – GFA: 13,000 sm

8. Crescent Hub, D7 – GFA: 36,297 sm

9. Spirit of Saigon, D1 – GFA: 12,000 sm

1. Deutsches Haus, D1 – GFA: 38,621 sm

2. Saigon Centre Phase 2, D1 – GFA: 40,000 sm

3. Etown Central, D4 – GFA: 67,760 sm

2017

21 3

1

2

3 4

5

6

7

8

9

48


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7O F F I C E

Hanoi – Future Supply


2017

1. HUD Tower (2nd tower)

2. Discovery Complex – GFA: 49,000 sm

3. DSD Building – GFA: 20,000 sm

4. Richy Tower – GFA: 9,790 sm

4

2018 - 2019

11. Vietinbank Tower – GFA: 100,000 sm

2. FLC Twin Tower - GFA: 35,960

3. Oriental Sun Tower – GFA: 23,300 sm

4. Eurowindows – GFA: 16,592 sm

5. Office building at Metropolis

1 2 3

2

4

5

3

49


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000

20

14

20

15

20

16

1H

20

17

20

17

E

20

18

F

20

19

F

New

Sup

ply,

NLA

(sm

)

O F F I C E

Market Outlook

Source: CBRE Vietnam, REIC.2017E: 2H of 2017

HANOIHCMC

Annual New Supply Forecast

Major Anchor Tenants still prefer to renew rather than relocate

New Supply in Grade B will continue to have better absorption than New Supply in Grade A

Build – Occupy – Lease will continue to be a recurring theme


020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000

20

14

20

15

20

16

1H

20

17

20

17

E

20

18

F

20

19

F

New

sup

ply,

NLA

(sm

)

Co-working spaces become potential tenants and partners for landlords

Limited Grade A supply; Grade A’s performance to further improve

Higher competition in Grade B due to continued new supply

50


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7R E TA I L


CBDNON-CBD

HANOIHCMC

No new supply

▲ 1.0% y-o-y

0% q-o-q

▲ 0.3 ppts y-o-y

▲ 0.1 ppts q-o-q

▲ 7.1% y-o-y

▼ -0.2% q-o-q

▼ 0.2 ppts y-o-y

▼ 1.1 ppts q-o-q

US$98.1 psm pm

1.9% Vacancy

No new supplyUS$137.1 psm pm

11.8% Vacancy


US$28.1 psm pm

11% Vacancy


US$37.4 psm pm

8% Vacancy

▼ 6.2% y-o-y

▲ 1.8% q-o-q

▲ 0.4 ppts y-o-y

▼ 0.3 ppts q-o-q

▲ 2.6% y-o-y

▲ 1.7% q-o-q

▼ 0.1 ppts y-o-y

▲ 1.1 ppts q-o-q


51


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7R E TA I L

HCMC – Map of New Supply


RomeADepartment Store

(District 3)9,600 sm

Pearl Centre(District 2)20,000 sm

(Binh Thanh)5,800 sm

(District 2)1,400 sm

52


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7R E TA I L

Hanoi – Map of New Supply

Artemis Shopping Center

(Thanh Xuan District)27,000 sm

Artemis Shopping Center

(Thanh Xuan District)27,000 sm

Hanoi Center Point(Thanh Xuan District)

6,400 sm

Hanoi Center Point(Thanh Xuan District)

6,400 sm

53


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7R E TA I L

Vacancy stable in both cities


HANOIHCMC

0%

13%

25%

38%

50%

0

40

80

120

160

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

Vaca

ncy

Rent

al (U

SD/m

2/m

onth

)

CBD Rental Rate Non-CBD Rental Rate CBD Vacancy Rate Non-CBD Vacancy Rate

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

40

80

120

160

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

Vaca

ncy

Rent

al (U

SD/s

m/m

onth

)

54


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7R E TA I L

Youth focused mass fashion and F&B still dominate


Fashion

F&B

Cosmetics

Convenience Store

New tenants To be coming or considering…

55


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7R E TA I L

What Local Retailers and Developers are Planning


2013

2016

2004

2013

2016

Shopping centre

VinmartVinmart+

2017

Co.opFood 100

Co.opmart 87

Co.opSmile 200 (Plan)

Sense City 3

New format???Number of locations

56


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7R E TA I L

Becoming More Attractive

Source: A.T. Kearney 2017

Rank CountryMarket attractive-ness

(25%)Country risk

(25%)Market saturation

(25%)Time pressure

(25%) GRDI score

1 India 63.4 59.1 75.7 88.5 71.7

2 China 100.0 64.5 24.4 92.5 70.4

3 Malaysia 77.1 87.1 23.3 56.2 60.9

4 Turkey 75.8 60.4 31.7 71.4 59.8

5 United Arab Emirates

92.3 100.0 0.9 44.4 59.4

6 Vietnam 26.7 25.4 72.4 100.0 56.1

7 Morocco 34.6 55.4 64.5 69.8 56.1

8 Indonesia 49.3 45.5 52.1 76.7 55.9

Global Retail Development Index (GRDI)

NOTEMarket

attractiveness Country risk Market saturation Time pressure

0 Low attractiveness High risk Saturated No time pressure

100 High attractiveness Low Risk Not Saturated Urgent to enter

57


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7R E TA I L

HCMC – Future Supply

1. Viettel Project, D10 – 15,000 sm

2. Golden Plaza, D5 – 15,000 sm

3. The Garden Mall, D5 – 19,000 sm

4. Xi Grand Court, D10 – 42,000 sm


1. Su Van Hanh Shopping Center, D10 – 80,000 sm

2. Spirit of Saigon, D1 – 48,000 sm

3. Crescent Mall Phase 2, D7 - 18,000 sm

4. Sala Shopping Centre, D2 - 60,000 sm

5. OneHub Saigon, D9 - 70,000 sm

6. Saigon Tax Trade Centre, D1 - 25,000 sm

7. Vincom Central, Binh Thanh District – 60,000 sm

4

1 2

5

3 4

2

37

6

2017

2018 – 2020

1

58


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7R E TA I L

Hanoi – Future Supply

1. Truong Dinh Plaza, Hoang Mai Dist. – 15,000 sm

2. Discovery Complex, Cau Giay Dist. – 22,000 sm

3. Central Field, Cau Giay Dist. – 20,000 sm


1. Lotte Mall, Tay Ho – 130,000 sm

2. D’Capitale, Nam Tu Liem – N/A

3. Aeon Mall Ha Dong - 95,000 sm

4. Vietinbank Tower, Tay Ho – N/A

5. Vinhomes Gallery Giang Vo, Ba Dinh – N/A

6. Sun Grand City Thuy Khue, Tay Ho – 28,000 sm

7. FLC Twin Towers, Cau Giay – 19,000 sm

8. Vinhomes Metropolis, Ba Dinh – 41,000 sm (est.)

3

4

1

2 56

2017 2018 – 2020

1

2

3

7 8

59


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7R E TA I L

Source: CBRE Vietnam, REIC.2017e: 2H of 2017

Market Outlook

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 E 2018F 2019F

NLA

, sm

HCMC


HANOI

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2017E 2018F 2019F

NLA

, sm


Market is not saturated, urging international retailers to enter and capture growth opportunity

Millennials continue to drive the market

Rental rate to be stable in CBD and slightly up in the non-CBD locations

A surge of retail podiums, especially in condominium projects to be handed soon in the decentralized area

Large pipeline for the coming quarters, putting pressure on rental and occupancy rates

RESIDENTIAL MARKETHow demand is shifting

61


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7C O N D O M I N I U M

Thanh My Loi area

Diamond Island1,275 units

Sold rate: 93% of launched products

The Sun Avenue1,288 condos Sold rate: 65%

Landed properties site

Palm Heights816 condos

Sold rate: 97%

Waterina suites86 condos

Feliz En Vista873 condos

Sold rate: 93%

Vista Verde1,152 condosSold rate: 95%

Victoria Village420 condos

Sold rate: 70%

Lakeview City963 townhouse/villas

Sold rate: 86%

Condo site (High-end)

Palm Residences135 townhouse/villas

Sold rate: 100%

Photo credit to One World

Condo site (High-end)

Current supply

Future supply

62


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7C O N D O M I N I U M

Thu Thiem area

Sala Dai Quang Minh 529 townhouse/villas

Sold rate: 100%

Sala Dai Quang Minh 2,596 condos


Khanh Hoi siteMixed-use

Empire City3,000 condos


Saigon M&C180 condos

Thu Thiem EcoSmart CityMixed-use

GS Thu ThiemMixed-use

Thu Thiem Lake ViewMixed-use

VHGR5,050 condosSold rate: 88%

Marina BayMixed-use

VHGR63 villas

Sold rate: N/A

Sunwah Pearl789 condos

Sold rate: N/A

New City1,229 condos

Current supply

Future supply

63


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7C O N D O M I N I U M

District 7

LaVida +1,200 CondosSold rate: N/A

RichLane Residences243 Condos

Sold rate: N/A

Sunrise City2,083 Condos

Sold rate: 100%

Sky Garden - PMH3,187 Condos

Sold rate: 100%

PMH shophouse644 shophousesSold rate: 100%

Sunrise City View703 Condos

Sold rate: 79%

Development site Condos

Current supply

Future supply

Him Lam Riverside758 Condos

Sold rate: 100%

CitizenTS300 Condos

Sold rate: 98%

64


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7C O N D O M I N I U M

Nha Be District

Sunrise Riverside1,846 condos


Kenton Node1,640 CondosSold rate: N/A

Phu Hoang Anh802 Condos

Sold rate: 100%

Dragon Hill350 Condos

Sold rate: 100%

Kim Long43 townhouse/villas

Sold rate: 100%

Ngan Long60 townhouse/villas

Sold rate: 100%

HAGL 31,104 Condos

Sold rate: 100%

Hung Phat Silver Star447 Condos

Sold rate: 86%

Current supply

Future supply

The Park Residence928 condos

Sold rate: 100%

Golden House498 Condos

Sold rate: 100%

Nine South Estate381 townhouse/villas

Sold rate: 100%

Galleria Nam Sai Gon58 Townhouse/villas

Sold rate: 98%

MARKET INSIGHTREAL ESTATE

Q 2 / 2 0 1 7

65

C O N D O M I N I U M

South Tu Liem and Cau Giay Districts

Vinhomes Green Bay1,424 condos

– Sales rate:72%390 villas/shophouses

- Sales rate: 100%

Vinata Tower384 condos

Sales rate: N/A

Current supply

Future supply

West

D’Capitale1,692 condos

Sales rate: 68%

Condo Site VinhomesSkylake

1,826 condosSales rate: 89%

Mixed –use

Project

My Dinh Pearl984 condos

– Sales rate: 60% of unit launched

Mixed - useProjects


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7

66


North Tu Liem and Tay Ho Districts

Current supply

Future supply

West

An Binh City2,732 condos

Sales rate: 60% of unit launched

Condos Site

Discovery Complex 3

Condos Site

Starlake300 villas launched

Sales rate: N/A

Diplomatic Quarters (Ngoai Giao Doan)

D’El Dorado

Kosmo Tay Ho


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7

67


South Hai Ba Trung and Hoang Mai Districts.

Sunshine Palace299 condos

Sales rate: N/A

Current supply

Future supply

Times City

Imperia Sky Garden342 condos (Sky B)

Sales rate: 70% of unit lauched

Minh KhaiPlaza

Green Pearl

South

CBD Fringe

536A Minh Khai200 condos

Sales rate: 95%

Landed Properties

Site

Sunshine Garden

T&T Vinh Hung310 condos Sales rate:

65% of unit lauched


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7

68


Long Bien District

East

Hanoi Garden City

VinhomesRiverside

VinhomesThe Harmony

Eco City412 condos

Sales rate: 73%

Northern Diamond192 condos

Sales rate: 38%

Mixed-use

Valencia Garden366 condos

Sales rate: 38%

Ecohomes Phuc Loi680 condos

Sales rate: 53%

Current supply

Future supply

69


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7C O N D O M I N I U M


HANOIHCMC

8,086 unitsLaunched

4,650 unitsSold

Primary Price: $1,324 psm

9,580 unitsLaunched

9,522 unitsSold

Primary Price: $1,578 psm

▼ 4% y-o-y

▼ 24% q-o-q

▲ 4% y-o-y

0% q-o-q

▲ 59% y-o-y

▲ 40% q-o-q

▲ 9% y-o-y

▼ 1% q-o-q

▼ 7% y-o-y

▲ 80% q-o-q

▲ 23% y-o-y

▼ 14% q-o-q

West32%

South West36%

South3%

East20%

North5%

Midtown0%

CBD0%

North5%

East36%

South25%

West34%

Central0%

* Units sold: including number of units sold in new launch and unsold stock in pervious quarters* Primary price: average price in the primary marketSource: CBRE Vietnam.

70


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7C O N D O M I N I U M


New Launches by Segment

Project

Total First launch

31 16

Q-o-Q55% 166%

HCMC

Total First launch

27 8

Q-o-Q

25% 47%

Project

Hanoi

- Affordable: <US$800 psm- Mid-end: US$800 – 1,500 psm- High-end: US$1,500 - $3,500 psm- Luxury: >US$3,500 psm

HCMC with first-time launches; Hanoi busy with follow-on launches

04,0008,000

12,00016,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

Uni

ts

- 4,000 8,000

12,000 16,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

Uni

ts

71


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7C O N D O M I N I U M

• Bubble size: size of new launch supply in that district • Number in the bubble illustrates the number of

projects launched in the perioed

Jamila

Ha Do Centrosa

Sunwah Pearl The Parkland

HCMC – Supply spreads across the city

4

1

1

1

5


733

1

2

2

72


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7C O N D O M I N I U M


Hanoi – New supply across districts, expanding to one new rural district

Booyoung

Vinhomes Green Bay

Imperia Sky Garden

Central Lake Ecopark

12

3

2

4

2

6

2

2HA DONG

• Bubble size: size of new launch supply in that district • Number in the bubble illustrates the number of

projects launched in the perioed

73


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7C O N D O M I N I U M


Hanoi

Sold units

Q2 2017: • Mid-end products accounted for 55% of total new launch in Hanoi and 56% in HCMC• Also, making up 54% of total sales in Hanoi and 51% in HCMC.

HCMC

Mid-end Segment Continues to Dominate the Market

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

No.

of So

ld U

nits

02,0004,000

6,0008,000

10,00012,00014,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

No.

of so

ld u

nits

74


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7C O N D O M I N I U M


Thu Thiem projectTotal investment: US$ 114.4 millionScale: 9.6 haTimeline: 2018 – 2020

Mizuki Park projectTotal investment: US$ 325 millionScale: 26 haTimeline: 2017 – 2024Components: condominium, land plots, townhouse, villa

CII + Hongkong Land Nam Long + Hankyu Realty + Nishi Nippon Railroad

CENINVEST + Hi Brand

The K - ParkTotal investment: N/AComponents: condominium, landed properties

Condominium Developers – Stronger Together

75


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7C O N D O M I N I U M

(*) Note: The analysis above is based on CBRE Vietnam’s residential closed deals and should not be used as a marketwise benchmark


1H 20171H 2016

Buyers by Origin

13%

41%

13%

11%

10%

8%

63%

13%

Owner-occupierOwner-occupier

Buy-to-gain InvestorsBuy-to-gain Investors

Buy-to-let InvestorsBuy-to-let Investors

Buyers by Purpose

1H 20171H 2016

20%

74%

6%

29%

53%

18%

CBRE Sales: More Foreign Buyers*

76


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

<60sm

60-90sm

>90sm

1H 2016 1H 2017


Buyers by unit type

8%

Studio 1BR 2BR 3BR 4BR Office-tel

38% 37%

14%7%

3%1%

71% 21%

0% 0% 0%

Buyers by unit size (sm)

(*) Note: The analysis above is based on CBRE Vietnam’s residential closed deals and should not be used as a marketwise benchmark


CBRE Sales: larger in unit sizes*

1H 20171H 2016


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7

77

$-

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

Pric

e (U

S$ p

sm)

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

Pric

e (U

S$ p

sm)

Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable


Price: excluded VAT and maintenance fee, base on NSA and fully-fitted handover conditionSource: CBRE Vietnam.

Primary price Secondary price

Hanoi

HCMC

Pricing: Stable in Hanoi – Up in HCMC

78


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7C O N D O M I N I U M

HCMC - Rental market


2BR unit rental rates in selected high-end projects. Rents quote on US$/unit/Month.

$830 - $1,200

$800 - $1,300

$1,200 - $3,500

$810 - $1,050

$850 - $1,100

$800 - $1,000

$950 - $1,100

$810 - $1,500

$760 - $1,400

$1,100-$3,300

$720-$1,050

$771 - $900

2017

2016

79


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7C O N D O M I N I U M

Rental yield in selected high-end projects.Source: CBRE Vietnam.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2015 2016 2017

Rent

al y

ield

(%)

District 1 District 3 District 2 Binh Thanh District 4 District 7

Rental Yield by District

HCMC – Rental Market Cool Down in D2 While Still Attractive in Core Area

80


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7C O N D O M I N I U M

HCMC – Notable Future Supply1. Viet Capital Centre, D1 – 36 units

2. D’Edge, D2– 300 units

3. G-Home, D2 – 300 units

4. Vincity, D9 – 10,000 units

5. Empire City, D2 – 500 units

6. Saigon Sport City, D2 – 3,900 units

7. Evergreen, D7 – 200 units

8. Masteri An Phu, D2 – 800 units

9. Dragon Riverside City, D5 – 1,208 units


2017

2018 – 2020

1. Lavenue Crown, D1 – 200 units

2. Springlight City, D1 – 892 units

3. The Spirit of Saigon, D1 – 495 units

4. NEXUS, D1 – 300 units

5. Raemian City, D2 – 2,500 units

31

41 2

5

3

2

6

7

9

8

4

5

81


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7C O N D O M I N I U M


1. My Dinh Pearl

2. Minh Khai Plaza

3. BooYoung

4. Vinhomes Smart City

5. Vinhomes Gallery Giang Vo

6. Petrowaco Lang Ha

7. Sunshine Center

8. Vincity

2017 2018 – 2020

1

1. The Manor Central Park

2. D'. Jardin Royal

3. Aquabay Grand Park

4. Avenue Park

5. Park City

6. D'.El Dorado

7. Sunshine Boulevard

2

5

6

7

3

4

1 5 6

Hanoi – Notable Future Supply

82


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7C O N D O M I N I U M

High-end and Luxury segment will be more active in the 2H 2017 with higher quality. The introduction of super luxury projects.

Larger in unit size.

Condominium market continues to receive high interest from foreign buyers.

Affordable and Mid-end are still attractive to end-user buyers.

Market Outlook - HCMC


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

New

laun

ch s

uppl

y (u

nits

)


83


Q 2 / 2 0 1 7C O N D O M I N I U M

Market Outlook - Hanoi



Large-scaled projects of high-end segment at prime locations soon to be launched

Unit sizes becoming increasingly efficient

Foreign buyers to show a greater presence

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

New

Lau

nch

Supp

ly

(uni

ts)

Thank You

For more information regarding this presentation please contact:CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. – Research & Consulting

All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.

T +84 28 3824 6125F +84 28 3823 8418Email: [email protected]

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