ho future home
TRANSCRIPT
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Future Home
Presented to the
Minnesota FuturistsJuly 25, 2009
by David Keenan
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Agenda
Motivation
Futurist Methodology
Energy
i-House
Appliances
Automated Homes for the Elderly
Summary
Discussion
Links
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MotivationFamily MeetingContingency Planning for Mother (83)
Our goal: The goal of this contingency planning is so the family can be prepared and
communicate our concerns and questions to you and to get your input so thatwe can act according to your wishes in case an emergency event occurs.What can we do in the meantime to make you more comfortable and avoidpreventable emergencies?
As children, our goal is to help Mom be safe, be healthy, and be happy.
Meeting guidelines: To be successful, we will be open, frank, have an honest exchange, and agree
that this is a family confidential business to be safe-guarded accordingly.
We also realize that a record of actions, decisions, and assignments that comefrom this meeting will be recorded so that all members will know what to do inthe future.
We will try to be calm and open to all input from all family members.
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MotivationFamily MeetingContingency Planning for Mother (83)
Topics of Discussion
Financial Status: Income and current burn rate, impact of increasing expenses
Health Issues: Latest update Emergency plan Contingency plan for rapid decline Medications: Available, correctly dosed for daily use, guidelines Exercise
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MotivationFamily MeetingContingency Planning for Mother (83)
Topics of Discussion continued
Safety Issues: reducing personal risk DrivingGuidelines and Issues Slips and fallsrails and other handholds, non-slip steps
Lifelineconsider subscription
Daily routine to support quality of life: Daily callsReduce confusion, aid memory of appointments and events Routine maintenance - managing services Groceries / Meal prep / Nutrition
Hygiene supplies and issues Best use of Home Care aide
What the Future holds: Future housing, transportation options What can we do to help
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Futurist Methodology
Possible Future
Probable Future
Preferable Future
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5 Future TechnologiesThat Will Slash Home Energy Use
Consumers have heard for years that solar, wind, andgeothermal power might soon cut their monthly energybills. But things get exciting, even exotic, looking adecade or two ahead.
Scientists envision that light bulbs will talk to switches,furnaces to windows, and everything to the Internet.Homes generate their own power in basement plants.
Windows and paint change color to harvest sunlight orreject it.
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5 Future TechnologiesThat Will Slash Home Energy Use
But it's one thing for scientists to talk game and anotherfor builders and homeowners to play. Cutting homeenergy use means changing consumer behavior andindustry practice.
"The construction trades are among the mostconservative out there," says Leon Glicksman, aprofessor of building technology at the MIT. It's also ahighly fragmented, diffuse industry of mostly smallcontractors installing separate systems in a home. Onedoes heating, another lighting, a third the electricalsystem. There often is nobody who integrates the manysystems with an eye to energy savings.
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5 Future TechnologiesThat Will Slash Home Energy Use
So as much as scientists like to talk whiz-bang for thefuture, what's also needed is training. "It'll be interestingto see 10 or 20 years from now how much progress istechnology oriented and how much is education based,"
says Dariush Arasteh, who studies building technologyat Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
That said, promising new technologies are emerging inlabs, and some in commercial buildings, that in a decade
or two could win over even the most skeptical buildersand homeowners.
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5 Future TechnologiesThat Will Slash Home Energy Use
Tunable tints
In most U.S. climates, there is no easy answer whenlooking for energy-efficient windows. Today's panes tendto be specific to a type of weatherglass can be treated to
reflect sunlight for warm-weather areas or not reflect it forcolder climes. "If you're in St. Louis, you ideally want onein summer and another in winter," says Arasteh, whoselab studies window energy use.
Intense research is focusing on smarter windows that can
change their coating on demand. A tint could block the sunin hot weather but fade on cold days to let in warm rays.Special "electrochromic" coatings darken when a smallvoltage is applied. A Minnesota company, SageElectrochromics, already sells early versions that are usedin some high-end homes, usually as skylights.
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5 Future TechnologiesThat Will Slash Home Energy Use
Tunable tints continued
At current high prices, they make more economic sensefor commercial buildings. Factories and offices couldreduce daytime lighting costs with more windows but can'tafford to let in the sun's heating rays. Homes tend to needmore of their light at night and benefit less from naturalillumination.
Still, commercial sales can help fine-tune production toget costs down. Then the entire window-producing
industry must revamp itself for the new tech, an issue thathas held up other energy-saving approaches, such astriple-pane windows. "It's like having a factory that's set upto make simple sandwiches," says Arasteh. "Now you'reasking them to make club sandwiches. These changestake years."
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5 Future TechnologiesThat Will Slash Home Energy Use
Smart homes
Existing home heating, cooling, and lighting systems could saveenergy with some new smarts. Lights typically don't know they can turnoff or dim when the sun comes up, and air handlers continue blowingheated or cooled air at open windows. Simple networking that got all ofthem talking could wring out a third of energy use in a building, saysNeil Gershenfeld, an MIT computer science professor: "It's sort of anInternet of things.
Many companies have tried for the smart home. About 20 differentfamilies of gear already exist. But they're not made to work with oneanother, and none can expand to handle complex systems while being
cheap enough to work with a simple light bulb. Gershenfeld's lab hasdeveloped a simple networking languagethink Morse codethat canturn a light bulb into a node on the Internet, sending and receivingdata. The same code could control complicated heating and coolingsystems that respond to outside temperature changes, or as peoplecome and go.
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Smart homes continued
Prototypes already exist of hardware that a homeownermight install cheaply, even in an existing structure. One
attraction: "We don't have to rewire the whole building,"says Charlie Catlett, chief information officer at ArgonneNational Laboratory, which is installing an early test ofthe system in one of its buildings. Plus, "these things areso cheap and small that we can actually think aboutputting them into things like chairs and light bulbs."
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Frozen smoke.
Nothing is weirder than the aerogel that might one daykeep our homes comfy. One of the lightest solids known
to man, the translucent and wispy material looks like aslice of solid smoke. It's about 99 percent gas trapped innano-size bubbles within a lacelike material, and there isno better insulation for a given thickness. "The problemis that for now it's expensive as heck," says AndreDesjarlais at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
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Frozen smoke continued
But breaking into the construction industry, which usesnearly two thirds of all insulation produced, is a priority forthe few small companies commercially producing the
ethereal stuff. "We're focused on those areas where spaceis at a premium," says Aspen Aerogels CEO Don Young.
That means retrofitting existing structures, particularly oldermasonry walls with no hollows for stuffing conventional
insulation. Public partners are helping to pay to installaerogel insulation in more than 250 New York City housingunits as an early test. For now, though, aerogel will largelyremain a tool for space agencies, the Pentagon, and oilcompanies that can pay the steep premium.
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Frozen smoke continued
Desjarlais's lab at Oak Ridge focuses on technology tosecure the building "envelope" for energy efficiency. It
includes a number of bizarre-sounding technologies,such as paint that's white one minute to reflect sunlightand later darkens to collect it. But nothing can top theweird nature of frozen smoke.
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Home hydrogen
Fuel cells have powered space flight for decades, and autocompanies hope they'll soon be ready for cars. In a decadeor two, they should be commonly available for thebasement, says Tom Drennen, an associate professor atHobart and William Smith Colleges and coauthor ofPathways to a Hydrogen Future."There's a lot of efficiencyin generating electricity where it is used," he says.
Fuel cells generate electricity through a chemical process
that combines hydrogen and oxygen. When the inputs arepure, the only side products are water and heat in aprocess that's long been perfected. "What's not perfected isgetting the fuel, the hydrogen, to them," says BrankoTerzic, a Deloitte consultant on energy policy.
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Home hydrogen continued
A few Japanese companies have installed experimentalmodels in homes that run off natural gas. An addeddevice strips hydrogen from the gas to fuel the cells,
which generate electricity and hot water. A smaller sliceof American homes have gas service, limiting thatapproach here. Converting natural gas also producesgreenhouse gases. But the process is still less pollutingthan traditional electrical generation. "And nothing'swasted getting it to the home," Drennen says.
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Brighter bulbs
Here's a twist on the old joke: In a few decades, nobodywill know what it even means to change a light bulb."The house will get torn down before a light bulb ever
burns out," says Russell Dupuis, a professor at theGeorgia Institute of Technology and fan of light-emittingdiodes, or LEDs.
The 130-year-old Edison bulbs will first get replaced inthe home by compact fluorescents, which use about athird the energy and last years longer. Even moremiserly LEDs are expected to later replace fluorescents.LEDs use about 12 percent the energy of incandescentsand can last 50 years or more.
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Brighter bulbs continued
They've already become popular in some commercialsettings, particularly where lights burn 24-7such as thefreezer at an all-night Wal-Mart.
Steep initial costs limit their appeal to U.S. homeowners.People just can't embrace spending $120 or $130 on abulb. While even that steep price can earn a payback in
eight or 10 years, it's too long for the typically nomadic U.S.homeowner. Dupuis dreams that people soon will askwhether a prospective home has LED lights and will paymore for one that does. He shouldhe built a passel ofthem into his house.
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http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html
In this Oct. 28,2008 imagereleased by ClaytonHomes Inc., thenew "i-house" isshown. The solar-
powered, energyefficient prefabhouse featuresdecks on theground level and onthe roof of the
detached "flexroom." (APPhoto/ClaytonHomes)
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i-House From its bamboo floors to its rooftop deck, Clayton Homes'
new industrial-chic "i-house" is about as far removed froma mobile home as an iPod from a record player.
Architects at the country's largest manufactured homecompany embraced the basic rectangular form of what
began as housing on wheels and gave it a postmodern turnwith a distinctive v-shaped roofline, energy efficiency andluxury appointments.
Stylistically, the "i-house" might be more at home in the
pages of a cutting-edge architectural magazine like Dwellan inspirational source than among the Cape Codsand ranchers in the suburbs.
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http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html
Artist rendering provided by Clayton Homes Inc. of TennesseeFloor plan of its new solar-powered, energy efficient "i-house". The prefab home canbe altered, by the buyer, in size and shape. In this example, the core of the househas a second bedroom and has been arranged in an "L" pattern with the separate"flex room" off the deck. (AP Photo/Clayton Homes Inc.)
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i-House The layout of the long main "core" house and a separate
box-shaped guestroom-office "flex room" resemble theletter "i'' and its dot. Yet Clayton CEO and President KevinClayton said "i-house" stands for more than its footprint.
With a nod to the iPod and iPhone, Clayton said, "We lovewhat it represents. We are fans of Apple and all that theyhave done. But the 'I' stands for innovation, inspiration,intelligence and integration.
Clayton's "i-house" was conceived as a moderately priced"plug and play" dwelling for environmentally conscious
homebuyers. It went on sale nationwide 2 May 2009 withits presentation at the annual shareholders' meeting ofinvestor Warren Buffett's Berkshire-Hathaway Inc. inOmaha, Neb.
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i-House "This innovative 'green' home, featuring solar panels and
numerous other energy-saving products, is truly a home ofthe future," Buffett wrote his shareholders. "Estimatedcosts for electricity and heating total only about $1 per daywhen the home is sited in an area like Omaha.
Maryville, Tenn.-based Clayton Homes, acquired byBerkshire-Hathaway in a $1.7 billion buyout in 2003,delivered 27,499 mobile or manufactured homes last year,a third of the industry total. Kevin Clayton thinks the"i-house" very quickly could represent more than 10% of itsbusiness.
Clayton Homes plans to price the "i-house" at $100 to $130a square foot, depending on amenities and add-ons, suchas additional bedrooms. A stick-built house with similarfeatures could range from $200 to $300 a square foot tostart, said Chris Nicely, Clayton marketing vice president.
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The "i-house's" metal v-shaped roof inspired by a gas-station awning combines design with function. The roofprovides a rain water catchment system for recycling,supports flush-mounted solar panels and vaults interiorceilings at each end to 10 1/2 feet for an added feeling ofopenness.
The Energy Star-rated design features heavy insulation, six-inch thick exterior walls, cement board and corrugated metalsiding, energy efficient appliances, a tankless water heater,dual-flush toilets and lots of "low-e" glazed windows.
The company said the prototype at roughly 52,000 poundsmay be the heaviest home it's ever built.
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The key cost difference is from the savings Clayton achievesby building homes in volume in green standardized factorieswith very little waste. Clayton has 4 plants in OR, TN, CAand NM geared up for "i-house" production.
A 1,000 SF prototype unveiled at a Clayton show in
Knoxville was priced at around $140,000. It came furnished,with a master bedroom, full bath, open kitchen and livingroom with Ikea cabinetry, two ground-level deck areas and aseparate "flex room" with a second full bath and a second-story deck covered by a sail-like canopy.
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i-House
"It does not look like your typical manufactured home," saidThayer Long with the Manufactured Housing Institute, aWashington-based group representing 370 manufacturedand modular home-building companies.
And shattering those mobile home stereotypes is a good
thing, he said. "I think the 'i-house' is just more proof that theindustry is capable of delivering homes that are highlycustomizable at an affordable price.
Video Tour
Clayton Homes "i-house" tour.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html
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Future Home AppliancesBeautiful and Elegant Vera Kettle by Bugatti
VERA is an electronically controlled conceptkettle design which brings togethertechnology and elegance.
Achieves required temperature and ensuresoptimal and uniform heating for of each hot
beverage. The touch buttons along with thedisplay screen is embedded in the handleand the 360obase ensure easy operating.
The combination of latest technologicaldevelopments and the stylish conical shapeprovides high thermal efficiency tosignificantly reduce energy consumption.
VERA is available in different colors.
http://www.tuvie.com/category/home-appliances Designer : Andreas Seegatz
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Future Home AppliancesRolly Cook : Portable Oven Concept
Medical researches have shownthat burnt food is always harmfulfor human body and are linkedwith the expansion of cancer cells.
So, in order to keep your foodunburned, you need to swirl itregularly.
http://www.tuvie.com/category/home-appliances
Rolly Cook is a portable oven concept that can efficiently do this.This handy tool reduces the risk of burning your food in an innovativeand well-designed way. It includes a central mechanism that spins twocylindrical containers on both sides. This continuous movement of thecontainers averts the risk of food burning.
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Future Home AppliancesRolly Cook : Portable Oven Concept
http://www.tuvie.com/category/home-appliances Designer : Jin-Young Lee
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Future Home AppliancesPortable Iron with Two Heating Plates
Features a rail mechanism that allows theuser to transform the smart box easily intoan iron.
Not intended for massive number of clothes,this will useful when you are on a trip.
This iron includes two heating plates placedone on another with a spring between them.This two plate design will allow easierironing of the collar by simply putting itbetween them and gently heating.
This iron can be operated on standardelectrical power when you need full heatingpower. Additionally, it works also on batterywhen you are roaming.
http://www.tuvie.com/category/home-appliances Designer : Apostol Tnokovski
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Future Home AppliancesModular Recycle Bin
Designed in a traditional and simpleshape, it offers the user a wide rangeof functions.
Recycled materials have been used toproduce the bin and the mostwonderful feature is its three adjustableinterior compartments.
These are made of plastic, glass andtin, and acts like a water bladder thatcan change size according to theinserted items in the individual
compartments.
Other noteworthy features are largewheels, extendable handles, step-to-open lid, interior rinse function,extendable interior space and fourthslot for recycling cardboard.
http://www.tuvie.com/category/home-appliances Designer : Dave Strydom
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Future Home AppliancesaXbo Sleep Phase Alarm Clock
The aXbo sleep phase alarm clock gives theuser the feeling of having woken up all byhimself.
Crucial for its functional design were thelatest findings in sleep research. Studiesshow that we pass through several sleep
phases each night, alternating between deepsleep, light sleep and dream phases.
Each of these phases is characterized bydifferent body motions. The sleep phasealarm clock uses the activity that occurs ineach of these phases.
http://www.tuvie.com/category/gadgets/clock Designer : Rouven Haas
A motion detection system has been integrated into a comfy terry-clothwristband, memorizing all physical motions and transmitting them to thealarm clock. The aXbo registers which sleep phase the user is in at anytime, and calculates the optimal wake-up moment within 30 minutes of thedesired wake-up time. This turns waking up into a gentle experiencemakes for a smooth and relaxed start to the day.
Caregiver Internet Monitoring
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Caregiver Internet MonitoringCamera System
Monitor your loved one LIVE over the internet.See what is going on at their home. 24 hrs/dy.
You can do a lot to keep your elderly lovedone at home instead of a nursing home. Weall know that mentally and physically they are
better off at home.
Provide them with tools that help them beindependent including many home automationproducts like motion activated faucets, talking caller idboxes, voice activated products and more.
http://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera_System_75383.aspx
One of the most important ideas is to install a LIVE video monitoringsystem in their home. This will give them the security of knowing thatsomeone is looking out for them. This will also give you the comfort andsecurity to know exactly who was there. How they treated your loved oneand ensure that your loved one is ok.
Caregiver Internet Monitoring
http://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera_System_75383.aspxhttp://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera_System_75383.aspxhttp://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera_System_75383.aspxhttp://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera_System_75383.aspx -
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Caregiver Internet MonitoringCamera System
This system from Assistive Technology Services a pan and tilt cameracan be installed in the most suitable location to monitor your loved oneat the most critical areas of the home where accidents may occur themost. More cameras can be installed if the area is large.
The system will automatically take snapshots from 5 second intervals
and up. You can then review all these snapshots from any webbrowser. You can also connect and view LIVE video 24 hours a dayremotely.
The great thing is that this can be done by the entire family. As manypeople can attach at the same time as you give security access.
This system saves those trips to 'check-up' on them and provides agreat feeling of comfort to both you and your loved one.
http://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera_System_75383.aspx
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Automated Homes for the Elderly
Eaton Holecs Xanura home automation system
Until now home automation appliances and equipmenthave been mainly geared to making life easier and more
convenient. By contrast the Xanura care concept placesemphasis on safety features as it largely addresses theneeds of the elderly, be they living alone or as a couple andleading quite independent lives in a house or apartment.
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Automated Homes for the ElderlyEaton Holecs Xanura home automation system features
All lights are switched on if the resident or the system triggers an alarm. Certain, non-essential electrical equipment and all equipment that
produces sound (radio, TV, etc.) is automatically switched off when analarm is given.
The social services care control can remotely let the dedicated/specified
care giver into the home. Activity tracking is continuous, so that were the resident to have been
inactive (ie. not pressed a button or passed a movement sensor) for agiven time period, an alarm is automatically set off.
When the resident gets out of bed during the night, a passageway tothe bathroom is automatically lit.
The home can be set to day or night mode from the bedroom.
The home can be set to at home or out mode at the front door.
It incorporates both automated fire alarm and intruder reportingsystems.
All kitchen equipment is automatically switched on or off.http://www.leonardo-energy.org/webfm_send/163
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Automated Homes for the Elderly
The personal alarm unit islocated in the living room (inthis example, it is the unitlocated in front of the TV onthe right).
The resident can set off asocial services alarm himself
or herself, when he or shefeels unwell for example, bypressing the red button of thetransponder. It can be wornon the wrist or neck.
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Automated Homes for the Elderly
There is a fall line in thebathroom. This sets off analarm to the social servicescenter when activated.
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Automated Homes for the Elderly
Voice activation
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Summary
Motivated by elderly parent, I chose to explore latest,near and further future home design and product ideas.
I hope this has provided some useful insight and creativethinking.
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Discussion
Futurist Methodology
Possible Future
Probable Future
Preferable Future
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Links
Home Automation/Environmental Control/Electronic Aids for DailyLiving (EADL) http://www.makoa.org/ecu.htm
Home Automation http://home-automation.org/
Assistive Technology Serviceshttp://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet
_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera_System_75383.aspx
and http://assistivetechnologyservices.com/CaregiverSolutions.aspx
Xanura website: www.xanura.nl
Xanura demo home with internet access:http://portal.homeautomationeurope.com/hae/hcb/demo2/index.html
Other links included in preceding slides
http://www.makoa.org/ecu.htmhttp://home-automation.org/http://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera_System_75383.aspxhttp://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera_System_75383.aspxhttp://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera_System_75383.aspxhttp://assistivetechnologyservices.com/CaregiverSolutions.aspxhttp://www.xanura.nl/http://portal.homeautomationeurope.com/hae/hcb/demo2/index.htmlhttp://portal.homeautomationeurope.com/hae/hcb/demo2/index.htmlhttp://www.xanura.nl/http://assistivetechnologyservices.com/CaregiverSolutions.aspxhttp://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera_System_75383.aspxhttp://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera_System_75383.aspxhttp://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera_System_75383.aspxhttp://home-automation.org/http://home-automation.org/http://home-automation.org/http://www.makoa.org/ecu.htm