hog situation & outlook outlook midw… · 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 jan apr jul oct $...

Cattle Market Outlook NWFC| August 2019

Hog Situation & Outlook

Katelyn McCullock, Director

Livestock Marketing Information Center

August 14, 2019

8 USDA Agencies:

AMS (Market News), APHIS,

ERS, GIPSA (Packers & Stock.),

NASS, FAS, FCA, and WAOB

13 Associate Members:

AFBF

ASI

NCBA

NPB

CME-Group

Canadian Consortium

Noble Research Institute

CoBank

TCFA

TCU

NWFCS

DLR

Agri-Food and Ag. Canada

26 US Land Grant Universities:

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Head

FEEDER PIG PRICES40 Pounds, Weekly

Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019

Data Source: USDA-AMS


30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

BARROW AND GILT PRICESIowa – So. Minnesota, Carcass Base Price, Weekly

Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC


56

61

66

71

76

81

86

91

96

101

106

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

PORK CUTOUT VALUE(Voluntary data prior to 2013), Weekly

Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC


3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25

4.50

4.75

5.00

5.25

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

HOG BY-PRODUCT VALUELive Animal Basis, Weekly

Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019



125

135

145

155

165

175

185

195

JAN APR JUL OCT

Cents Per Pound

WHOLESALE PORK SPARERIB PRICESTrimmed, Light Poly, Weekly

Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019



M-P-27

08/09/19

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

JAN APR JUL OCT

Cents Per Pound

WHOLESALE HAM PRICESTrimmed Selected, 23-27 Pounds, Weekly

Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019



70

80

90

100

110

120

130

JAN APR JUL OCT

Cents Per Pound

TURKEY PRICESNational, Hens, 8-16 Pounds, Weekly

Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019



QUARTERLY COMMERCIAL HOG SLAUGHTER, PORK PRODUCTION,

PER CAPITA PORK DISAPPEARANCE AND NATIONAL BASE HOG PRICE 08/12/19

7.100

% Chg. Average % Chg. Comm'l % Chg. % Chg. Carcass Price % Chg.

Year Comm'l from Carcass from Pork from Per Capita from National Wtd from

Quarter Slaughter Year Ago Weight Year Ago Production Year Ago Consumption Year Ago Avg Base Year Ago

(1,000 Head) (Lbs.) (Mil. Lbs.) (Retail Wt.) ($/Cwt.)

2017

I 30178 3.1 213 -0.2 6410 2.9 12.4 -1.8 67.79 9.1

II 29165 3.7 211 -0.9 6137 2.9 11.8 -0.3 71.13 -3.1

III 29967 2.2 209 0.2 6240 2.3 12.4 2.4 75.72 10.9

IV 32007 1.5 213 0.6 6796 2.2 13.5 -0.1 63.06 18.6

Year 121317 2.6 211 -0.1 25584 2.6 50.2 0.0 69.42 8.1

2018

I 31074 3.0 214 0.6 6645 3.7 12.6 1.5 67.82 0.0

II 29818 2.2 212 0.8 6325 3.1 12.2 2.9 67.82 -4.6

III 30399 1.4 208 -0.3 6315 1.2 12.4 -0.4 62.92 -16.9

IV 33145 3.6 213 0.0 7031 3.4 13.8 2.0 60.14 -4.6

Year 124435 2.6 212 0.3 26315 2.9 50.9 1.5 64.68 -6.8

2019

I 31871 2.6 215 0.3 6838 2.9 13.1 4.1 58.31 -14.0

II a 30926 3.7 214 0.9 6615 4.6 12.5 2.8 78.81 16.2

III b 32092 5.6 210 0.8 6730 6.6 12.8 3.1 75-77 20.8

IV 34279 3.4 212 -0.1 7280 3.5 13.8 0.2 65-68 10.6

Year 129168 3.8 213 0.5 27463 4.4 52.2 2.5 69-71 8.5

2020

I 33203 4.2 214 -0.2 7116 4.1 13.0 -0.2 67-71 18.3

II 31692 2.5 214 -0.4 6767 2.3 12.5 -0.2 77-82 0.9

III 32792 2.2 209 -0.1 6868 2.1 12.6 -1.3 76-82 3.9

IV 35103 2.4 212 0.0 7455 2.4 13.7 -0.7 64-71 1.5

Year 132790 2.8 212 -0.2 28206 2.7 51.9 -0.6 72-76 5.7

a/ Estimated quarter Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

b/ Forecasted quarters

Sources: Livestock Slaughter - USDA Publications; USDA Livestock Market News; Forecasts - LMIC Projections

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$/Head

IOWA MARKET HOG PROFITFarrow/Finish, Monthly

Data Source: Iowa State University


Latest Data: June 2019

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

JAN APR JUL OCT

Thou. Head

HOG SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly

Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS


5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Mil. Head

JUNE 1 HOG BREEDING HERDU.S. Inventory

Data Source: USDA-NASS


7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Head

PIGS PER LITTERQuarterly

Data Source: USDA-NASS


M-S-08B

07/06/19

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Thou. Pounds

Tho

usa

nd

s

PORK PRODUCTION PER BREEDING HOG1992-2017 (Est.), Annual

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC


5.25

5.75

6.25

6.75

7.25

7.75

JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC

Bil. Pounds

COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTIONUS, Quarterly

Avg. 2013/17 2018 2019 2020

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

Livestock Marketing Information Center 07/27/19

100 9996

9193

87

8084

8993 93

89

9791 93

89

82 84

7682

7782

7984

8991 92

89 9096

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Index Value

RETAIL PORK DEMAND INDEXSecond Quarter, Using CPI 1990=100

Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC


Pork Trade Flows: ASF and the Unknown

Rabobank :https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/animal-protein/world-pork-map-2018.html?qsl_reqcnt=1

https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/animal-protein/world-pork-map-2018.html?qsl_reqcnt=1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Bil. Pounds

US PORK EXPORTSCarcass Weight, Annual

Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC


-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53

1000 Metric Tons

Week

WEEKLY US EXPORTS OF PORK MUSCLE CUTS TO CHINA

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Data Source: USDA-FAS

Livestock Marketing Information Center 08/09/19

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mil. Pounds

US PORK EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETSCarcass Weight, Monthly

Japan Canada Mexico Russia

Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS


350

375

400

425

450

475

500

525

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Thou. Head

US LIVE HOG IMPORTS FROM CANADAMonthly

Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019

Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS


25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

$ Per Head

LIVE TO CUTOUT PORK PRICE SPREADMonthly

Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

Livestock Marketing Information Center, Note: Prior to 2013 pork cutout was voluntary

Thank You!

www.lmic.info

Katelyn McCullockDirector, LMIC

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

hog situation & outlook outlook midw… · 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 jan apr jul oct $...

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