International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012

Water-Related Risks and Opportunitiesfor Foreign Direct Investments in Africa

Holger HoffStockholm Environment Institute

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

A new global freshwater assessment

Blue water availability per capita Gerten et al 2011

Blue plus green water availability per capita

A new global freshwater assessment

Gerten et al 2011

A new global freshwater assessment

Change in blue plus green water availability per capita – climate changeA2, 2080, ensemble mean

A new global freshwater assessment

Crop water productivities (m3 water required for producing 1000 kcalunder current crop mix and management

! productivity gradient along the Nile basin !

A new global freshwater assessment

Water-limited food self sufficiency potentialGerten et al 2011

largely semi-arid savanna systems

Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa

UNEP 2004

only about 10% of rainfall becomes blue water (runoff and groundwater)

very little of that blue water is tapped for agriculture or other purposes

high variability and uncertainty about rainfall and seasonal water availability

Brown et al 2006

-> need for additional water storage and irrigation

Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa

variability and uncertainty are projected to increase with climate change (Hansen et al 2012)

CoV monthly rainfall

Lack of blue water storage (and other water infrastructure)

Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Grey et al 2007

-> need for additional water storage and irrigation

< 5% of agriculture is irrigated (compared to about 40% in South Asia)

FAO 2004

Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa

-> need for additional water storage and irrigation

Water situation in the Nile basin

Green water availability per capita per subbasin - 2000

based onCPWF data

Water situation in the Nile basin

Green water availability per capita per subbasin - 2050

based onCPWF data

Crop (water) productivity in the Blue Nile basin

again: large productivity gradient -> win-win basin-wide solutions

Effects of climate change: upper Blue Nile discharge

Lopez2012

FDI risks – Ethiopia / Blue Nile

Bossio et al 2012

water effects often downstream (different from land impacts)

most significant effects in the dry season when river flow is lowest, but irrigation demand peaks

Our estimate of contracted areas: 1.76 million ha if fully irrigated, annual runoff in the Blue Nile may drop by 5-20 %

Land Matrix estimate: 3-6 million ha

FDI risks – Ethiopia / Blue Nile

Bossio et al 2012

investment / knowledge / technologies / are urgently needed,adapted to local conditions, providing local benefits

FDI opportunities: sustainable intensification of irrigated AND rainfed agriculture

“Large-scale farming is in most cases unlikely to be the most appropriateavenue for the commercialization of African agriculture”

from: Awakening Africa‘s Sleeping GiantWorld Bank 2009

investment / knowledge / technologies / are urgently needed,adapted to local conditions, providing local benefits

as well as other inputs and interventions, e.g. integrated fertilizer & pest management, „green agriculture“ solutions

not only large-scale blue water infrastructure, but also scalable interventions across the green-to-blue spectrum,

e.g. rainwater harvesting and storage, spreading weirs, etc

FDI opportunities: sustainable intensification of irrigated AND rainfed agriculture

Thank you !