hologic (holx) march 4, 2019 - university of iowahologic is considered a market leader in breast...

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Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report. The Henry Fund Henry B. Tippie School of Business Elisa Suarez Gil [[email protected]] HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 Healthcare-Medical Devices Stock Rating Buy Investment Thesis Target Price $50-60 Hologic Inc. continues to offer innovative products in their two strongest segments: Diagnostics and Breast Health. We believe the company will generate more steady revenues in the next 5 years due to a growing portfolio of products with market leading technology. This strong performance coupled with a share repurchase plan of $351 million will drive EPS up at an estimated CAGR of 18%. We recommend a BUY rating for Hologic Inc. with an upside of 25%. Drivers of Thesis Favorable demographics — Increased awareness regarding routine checkups for breast cancer in tandem with more women entering the 50- 74 age range for biennial screenings will drive up the sale of mammography systems by 4% through 2020 and stabilize at 3% after that. Growing portfolio — In the past few years Hologic has added a significant number of products both organically and inorganically. This signals a healthy operating structure that will allow the company to gain market share and increase revenues at 3% CAGR through 2023. Risks to Thesis Healthcare reforms — Lower or non-existing reimbursement rates for mammograms, pap tests, cervical cancer screenings and molecular diagnostics tests would decrease the demand for these procedures, thus hurting Hologic’s performance. Strengthening dollar — Currently the company generates around 26% of total profits outside the U.S and intends to expand operations internationally in the future. Unfavorable exchange rates can greatly hurt Hologic’s revenues. Henry Fund DCF $62.60 Henry Fund DDM $29.40 Relative Multiple $28.93 Price Data Current Price $47.92 52wk Range $35.10 – 48.09 Consensus 1yr Target $47.47 Key Statistics Market Cap (B) $13.959 Shares Outstanding (M) 291.29 Institutional Ownership 91.40% Five Year Beta 0.083 Dividend Yield 0.00% Est. 5yr Growth 24.50% Price/Earnings (TTM) 10.30 Price/Earnings (FY1) 19.86 Price/Sales (TTM) 4.01 Price/Book (mrq) 5.35 Profitability Operating Margin 15.79% Profit Margin -3.46% Return on Assets (TTM) -1.46% Return on Equity (TTM) -4.27% Earnings Estimates Year 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E EPS $1.18 $2.70 $(0.40) $1.05 $1.36 $1.53 Growth 151% 129% -115% 725% 30% 13% Consensus $1.18 $2.70 $(0.40)00 $1.42 $1.62 $2.03 12 Month Performance Company Description Source: Yahoo Finance Hologic Inc. is a medical technology company headquartered in Marlborough, Massachusetts. They are primarily focused on women’s health, supplying imaging systems, surgical products, diagnostic instrumentation, tests and light-based aesthetic systems. The company offers and services their products through a combination of direct sales and independent distributors. Main customers include hospitals and diagnostic centers. Their international presence has been growing in the recent years with an emphasis in Germany, UK, France, China and Brazil. 19.9 -4.3 13.6 20.3 25.0 34.9 28.4 8.6 20.3 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Forward P/E ROE EV/EBITDA HOLX Industry Sector -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% F M A M J J A S O N D J HOLX S&P 500 Source: FactSet

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Page 1: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report.

The Henry Fund

Henry B. Tippie School of Business Elisa Suarez Gil [[email protected]] HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019

Healthcare-Medical Devices Stock Rating Buy

Investment Thesis Target Price $50-60 Hologic Inc. continues to offer innovative products in their two strongest segments: Diagnostics and Breast Health. We believe the company will generate more steady revenues in the next 5 years due to a growing portfolio of products with market leading technology. This strong performance coupled with a share repurchase plan of $351 million will drive EPS up at an estimated CAGR of 18%. We recommend a BUY rating for Hologic Inc. with an upside of 25%. Drivers of Thesis • Favorable demographics — Increased awareness regarding routine

checkups for breast cancer in tandem with more women entering the 50-74 age range for biennial screenings will drive up the sale of mammography systems by 4% through 2020 and stabilize at 3% after that.

• Growing portfolio — In the past few years Hologic has added a significant number of products both organically and inorganically. This signals a healthy operating structure that will allow the company to gain market share and increase revenues at 3% CAGR through 2023.

Risks to Thesis • Healthcare reforms — Lower or non-existing reimbursement rates for

mammograms, pap tests, cervical cancer screenings and molecular diagnostics tests would decrease the demand for these procedures, thus hurting Hologic’s performance.

• Strengthening dollar — Currently the company generates around 26% of total profits outside the U.S and intends to expand operations internationally in the future. Unfavorable exchange rates can greatly hurt Hologic’s revenues.

Henry Fund DCF $62.60 Henry Fund DDM $29.40 Relative Multiple $28.93 Price Data Current Price $47.92 52wk Range $35.10 – 48.09 Consensus 1yr Target $47.47 Key Statistics Market Cap (B) $13.959 Shares Outstanding (M) 291.29 Institutional Ownership 91.40% Five Year Beta 0.083 Dividend Yield 0.00% Est. 5yr Growth 24.50% Price/Earnings (TTM) 10.30 Price/Earnings (FY1) 19.86 Price/Sales (TTM) 4.01 Price/Book (mrq) 5.35 Profitability Operating Margin 15.79% Profit Margin -3.46% Return on Assets (TTM) -1.46% Return on Equity (TTM) -4.27%

Earnings Estimates Year 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E EPS $1.18 $2.70 $(0.40) $1.05 $1.36 $1.53

Growth 151% 129% -115% 725% 30% 13% Consensus $1.18 $2.70 $(0.40)00 $1.42 $1.62 $2.03

12 Month Performance Company Description

Source: Yahoo Finance

Hologic Inc. is a medical technology company headquartered in Marlborough, Massachusetts. They are primarily focused on women’s health, supplying imaging systems, surgical products, diagnostic instrumentation, tests and light-based aesthetic systems. The company offers and services their products through a combination of direct sales and independent distributors. Main customers include hospitals and diagnostic centers. Their international presence has been growing in the recent years with an emphasis in Germany, UK, France, China and Brazil.

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Source: FactSet

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

We recommend a BUY rating for Hologic Inc. (HOLX), as the company offers steady growth revenues and EPS in the next five years driven by the introduction of new products and international expansion. Our model suggests a target price range of $50-60, representing a 7%-28% upside to its current market price. We believe the market is pricing the company differently because of Cynosure’s disappointing performance and the uncertainty regarding healthcare reforms. The current administration has attempted to modify and repeal the Affordable Care Act implemented in 2014. Any changes that erode coverage would be detrimental to Hologic’s performance since its revenues are tied to people accessing preventive care and overall healthcare services. We believe that with favorable legislation and transparent prices people would be more eager to seek care and engage in preventive services, thus benefiting Hologic’s performance.

In the past few years, Hologic has strengthened the supply of breast health products by implementing market leading technologies, upgrades and enhancements to existing systems, and the entrance into breast-conserving surgery. Looking forward, the company can benefit from a stronger foundation and provide steadier revenues and EPS.

COMPANY DESCRIPTION

Hologic Inc. currently operates in five business segments: Diagnostics, Breast Health, Medical Aesthetics, GYN Surgical and Skeletal Health. As displayed on the chart below, diagnostics and breast health products constitute 58% of total revenue, making them the cornerstone of a healthy company.

Source: Hologic 2018 10K

Diagnostics

This business segment generated 35% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast revenues to grow at 4% CAGR through 2022 and then 3% CAGR due to higher penetration of products into the market and development of new tests. The company has an opportunity to expand internationally with their viral assays, where those diseases are most prevalent.

Source: Mergent Online and HF Estimates

The Aptima family of molecular diagnostic assays that are FDA-cleared and CE-marked include testing for:

• STD’s: gonorrhea, chlamydia, mycoplasma genitalium and trichomonas vaginalis.

• Virology: herpes simplex, human papillomavirus, HIV-1, hepatitis B and hepatitis C.

• Respiratory: influenza A and B virus, syncytial virus, adenovirus, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus and parainfluenza 1,2 and 3 virus.

Those assays can run on the Panther system, a fully automated testing platform with scalable features like the new Panther fusion with PCR technology. The company is devoting time and money to grow this menu, and we believe it will become a strong driver for Hologic’s performance.

Other products in this category include:

• ThinPrep processors, imagers and review scopes to improve workflow in laboratories and increase accuracy in disease detection.

• ThinPrep pap test, recommended every 3 years in women aged 21 to 651.

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Breast Health

Medical Aesthetics

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• Rapid Fetal Fibronectin test to assess the risk of pre-term birth.

Breast Health

Hologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow at 4% CAGR through 2020 and then at 3% CAGR till the remaining forecasted period due to consolidation of market share as well as the introduction of breast-conserving surgery.

Source: Mergent Online and HF Estimates

The company offers a broad array of products intended for breast imaging and interventional procedures. Hologic has developed a 3D Mammography system proven to increase cancer detection by 41% compared to 2D alone2. This improved imaging will reduce false alarms and recalls. Due to an increased consciousness around breast cancer and early detection, hospitals that want to offer the best possible care for patients will decide to upgrade their systems. According to the American College of Radiology, approximately 30% of mammography units installed in the U.S now have 3D capabilities3. This new technology was approved by the FDA in 2011 and although its adoption was slow at first it seems to be picking up in the most recent years (from 3,178 facilities in March 2017 to 4,074 in March 2018)3. The slow adoption is associated with an elevated price of $400,000 for the upgrade.

Medical Aesthetics

Hologic entered this business segment in 2017 by acquiring Cynosure and its revenues have grown 56% during 2018 to now account for 9% of total revenues. We forecast it to grow at 1% CAGR through 2023 because of disappointing results in the most recent quarter and increased competition in the non-invasive fat reduction category.

Source: Mergent Online and HF Estimates

Cynosure offers products to plastic surgeons, dermatologists and aesthetic business owners for diverse treatments such as: hair removal, skin revitalization, scar reduction, tattoo removal, body contouring and gynecologic health. Those products allow practitioners to provide non-invasive and minimally invasive procedures.

GYN Surgical

This segment represents 13% of total revenues in 2018 and our projection shows 2% YoY growth through 2023 based on the introduction of two new products: Fluent Fluid Management System and Three-in-One Omni Hysteroscope. The first product aids fluid management during hysteroscopies and the second one provides physicians with a single device and three sheaths to diagnose and treat patients in a more streamlined procedure4.

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Source: Mergent Online and HF Estimates

Skeletal Health

The smallest segment in Hologic’s portfolio accounted for 2% of total revenues in 2018 and it is projected to grow at 1% YoY through 2023. This category offers x-ray products to evaluate bone density and body composition as well as imaging systems for extremity procedures.

Source: Mergent Online and HF Estimates

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Q1 Results

The company released first quarter results at the end of January. Total revenues increased 5% compared to the same period in the prior year as a result of an improved performance in Breast Health, Molecular Diagnostics and international markets. Faxitron Bioptics and Focal Therapeutics, their recently acquired businesses, contributed $12.2 million to the total revenue of $830.7 million. Breast Health growth of 17.5% was driven by new product sales (3D Dimensions and 3D performance

systems) and the entrance into breast-conserving surgery market. Molecular Diagnostics experienced strong sales in viral load assays as well as an increased installation of Panther instruments, driving revenues up 3.9%. Actual EPS-Non GAAP met street consensus of $0.58.

Hologic Inc. experienced a disappointing quarter in the Medical Aesthetics segment with a decrease of 15.5%. This was primarily due to increased competition of their non-invasive fat reduction laser (SculpSure), and cautionary market sentiment following FDA’s letters to challenge the safety of certain procedures in this field. The company has addressed these issues accordingly and has received confirmation to continue to market their products.

Following a strong Q1 performance, the company raised revenue guidance for fiscal 2019 from $3.29-$3.335 billion to $3.305-$3.335, representing 3-8% to 4.7% constant currency growth5. They have also slightly increased EPS guidance to a range of $2.39 to $2.43 despite incremental currency headwinds. Our model assumes a 3.2% growth for fiscal 2019, a little below management’s guidance. This is a conservative estimate that reflects uncertainty regarding foreign exchange rates, an economic factor that can hurt revenues greatly.

LOCalizer-Breast Surgery

Hologic’s new product in Breast Health category is now CE marked and FDA cleared. LOCalizer is a non-radioactive, radiofrequency localization system designed for precise marking and targeting of lesions in breast-conserving surgery6. This tag can be implanted up to 30 days before surgery with the objective of indicating to the surgeon the damaged tissue that needs to be removed. Some benefits of this new product include reduced scheduling and better patient experience.

Hologic Global Access Initiative

In partnership with the Clinton Health Access Initiative, Inc and MedAccess, Hologic is committed to provide access to viral testing where those diseases are most prevalent. The initiative creates an avenue to healthcare for countries with financial and operational limitations. This program aims to provide a pricing structure of $12 per patient test with no upfront cost or capital expenditure by qualified laboratories. Available tests include HIV-1, human papillomavirus, hepatitis B and C. The price includes

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instrument placement, reagents and consumables, service and maintenance, and freight and logistics. To be eligible, the purchasing country or organization must anticipate an average of 30,000 patient samples per year within 12 months of placement.

INDUSTRY TRENDS.

3D Mammography

Advances in technology are shaping every market and breast care is no exception. Mammography has evolved from 2D imaging to 3D imaging, also referred to as digital breast tomosynthesis. This new technology yields higher quality images that allow for better diagnostics, especially in women with dense breasts. Every major player in this industry offers a system with breast tomosynthesis, including but not limited to: Hologic, Siemens Healthineers, GE Healthcare and Fujifilm. This market is expected to grow at 13.4% CAGR in the coming few years fueled by improved cancer detection and reduction of false alarms. Potential risks to this growth include high capital costs for providers and uncertainty regarding reimbursement for the screening.

MARKETS AND COMPETITION

A lack of companies that operate in every segment Hologic does makes comparisons challenging.

Breast Health

Hologic is considered a world leader in women’s health, from screening to interventional procedures. Other companies that manufacture and sell mammography equipment include: Fujifilm Corporation, GE Healthcare, Siemens Healthineers, Toshiba Medical Systems and Carestream Health, Inc. This market has been evaluated to be moderately growing and expected to grow in the future as well due to technological improvements like 3D imaging and favorable demographics. The ability to produce imaging systems with the most advanced technology, user-friendly interface and less side effects will set the difference in terms of market share. Among the above-mentioned companies, only Siemens Healthineers is publicly traded, while GE Healthcare intends to file an IPO in the near future7.

Source: FactSet

Hologic’s operating income is slightly healthier than Siemens Healthineers, indicating similar efficiency at managing expenses. However, Hologic is retaining more profits per dollar collected in revenues. Hologic reported an income loss of $111.3 million in 2018 due to a non-recurring impairment of goodwill of $685.7 million in relation to the Medical Aesthetics unit. As a result, ROIC and ROA ratios reflect a negative number.

We believe Hologic has an advantageous position in Breast Health over its peer companies because of its innovative solutions that add to an already broad portfolio of products. According to the most recent corporate presentation Hologic holds approximately 50% of market share8.

Diagnostics

Molecular diagnostics is a growing market with a few consolidated leaders, such as Roche and Abbott, in addition to smaller players that are highly specialized in niche segments, such as Qiagen and Hologic. This market is expected to grow at a 12.1% CARG through 2024, driven by technological improvements that enable greater accuracy and portability9.

Forward P/E EV/EVITDA Roche 15.11 10.47 Danaher 26.70 17.00 Qiagen 27.10 16.75 Becton 21.00 22.03 Abbott 24.50 20.03 Hologic 19.9 15.6

Source: FactSet

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The market is valuing Qiagen and Danaher higher than their peers. News about Danaher acquiring GE’s biopharma business have risen expectations for the company. Roche and Hologic have a healthier EV/EBITDA ratio than their peers.

Gross Margin

Operating Margin

ROIC

Roche 71% 29% 24% Danaher 56% 17% 7% Qiagen 67% 20% 4% Becton 45% 14% 1% Abbott 52% 13% 4% Hologic 51% 16% -2%

Source: FactSet

Roche seems to be best positioned among its peers, given a higher gross margin, higher operating margin and higher ROIC. Next are Danaher and Qiagen. Hologic has healthy margins but a negative ROIC for the reason we mentioned before. Overall, we believe Roche is superior to its peers due to a diversified supply of products and a global presence.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Breast Cancer

About 1 in 8 U.S women will develop invasive breast cancer over the course of her lifetime. This year alone, 268,600 new cases of invasive breast cancer are expected to be diagnosed, in addition to 62,930 of non-invasive breast cancer10. Incidence rates remain high in part due to more women going to the doctor to be examined. However, death rates have shown a downward trend for more than a decade. This change is associated with treatment advancements, early detection and increased awareness. To continue this trend, patients at risk need to comply with screenings, which will in turn increase the demand for Hologic’s products. It is estimated that 41,760 deaths will occur this year10.

Source: CDC

Mammograms remain the most common and efficient way of detecting breast cancer. The U.S Preventive Services Task Force recommends biennial screenings for women who are 50 to 74, while screening before the age of 50 is subject to individual preferences and circumstances11. However, the American Cancer Society recommends that women between the age of 45 and 54 get mammograms every year12. The reason behind different recommendations is the existence of risks associated with X-ray screenings. We believe that recommendations are important but, in the end, what drives the demand are individual decisions based on doctor’s advice. Medicare offers coverage for annual screenings over the age of 39.

STD’s

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention emphasize the importance of STD screening to detect and treat diseases that otherwise would go unnoticed and can cause severe long-term complications. They recognize STDs to be a substantial health challenge facing the U.S, with total cases reaching record highs in 2017. Approximately 1.7 cases of chlamydia were reported in that year in addition to over 0.5 million cases of gonorrhea13.

Hologic Inc. can commercialize in the U.S and Europe diagnostic assays for STI’s that test for: chlamydia, gonorrhea, trichomoniasis, HPV and HSV. They also have other tests under development that would add to an already attractive menu for customers. Rising cases coupled with an increase in awareness will drive up the demand for screening. This creates an opportunity for Hologic to market those products and increase their revenues.

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Health Insurance Coverage

Thanks to the Affordable Care Act, millions of people that were previously uninsured have now access to coverage. This change can be observed in the graph below.

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation's State Health Facts

Most of Hologic’s revenues depend on people accessing healthcare services, especially those related to preventive care. For example, if the number of uninsured women increases, the demand for mammograms decreases and, as a result, the demand for screening product also decreases. The uncertainty regarding prices for medical procedure will prevent people from demanding those services.

The direction of this variable in the future relies upon government decisions to alter funding for public healthcare coverage, in addition to unemployment rates. The latter mentioned remain at historical lows, and we predict this number to continue around this trend for the next calendar year.

Source: FRED

CATALYSTS FOR GROWTH

Hologic has an opportunity to expand internationally within all its business segments, thus opening the door to new customers. Recent product developments that increase efficiency and accuracy will drive revenue sales up. In addition, we believe the company has a strong management team with ambitious growth goals to be market leaders.

INVESTMENT POSITIVES

• Improved offer of products in Breast Health, Diagnostics and GYN Surgical as a result of organic growth and acquisitions. Hologic continues to offer innovative products that can set them apart from its peers and propel growth.

• An aging population increases the amount of people who at risk of developing cancer, thus increasing the demand for screening systems. Breast cancer remains the most commonly diagnosed type besides skin cancer among women in the U.S.

INVESTMENT NEGATIVES

• Non-recurrent revenues dependent on customer’s decision to upgrade screening instrumentation. Some hospitals and diagnostic clinics operate in low margins and cannot afford expensive capital.

• A lack of transparency in health care costs can refrain patients from engaging in preventive care or any medical procedure unless indispensable.

VALUATION

Revenue Growth

The Diagnostics segment is forecasted to grow at 4% CAGR until 2022 and then at 3% in 2023 due to a competitive menu of viral and STI’s assays, as well as the updated Panther Fusion System.

In 2018, the company acquired Focal Therapeutics and Faxitron Bioptics to enter into the breast conserving surgery market, thus strengthening their position in Breast Health. As a result, the company posted strong performance in this segment for Q1 2019 in part due to this new addition. All those factors drive our growth

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estimate of 4% CAGR for the next two years and 3% CAGR for the remaining horizon.

The Medical Aesthetics segment grows at 1% through 2023, reflecting increased competition for their non-invasive fat reduction lasers and market’s sentiment of uncertainty regarding the safety of vaginal rejuvenation procedures (MonaLisa Touch laser).

New developed products in GYN Surgical (Omni hysteroscope and Fluent Fluid Management System) motivate our growth estimate of 2% CAGR through 2023.

Lastly, the Skeletal Health segment is forecasted to grow at 1% CAGR through 2023 following a 14% increase in Q1 2019 compared to the corresponding period in the prior year.

Total sales estimates are in accord with management’s guidance and FactSet analysts’ consensus. Management posted a range of $3305 to $3335 million for total sales in 2019.

Year 2019 2020 2021 Model $3,322 $3,430 $3,534 Consensus $3,325 $3,447 $3,574

Operating Expenses

Product costs are forecasted to grow as a percentage of total revenues based on the historical average of the last five years equal to 33.65%. Service costs are forecasted to grow as a percentage of total revenues based on the average of 33.30% for the last two years due to an increasing trend. Historical selling & marketing and G&A with respect to revenues also show an increasing trend, therefore my forecast is based on an average of the last two years equal to 16.61% and 11.30% respectively. Research and development expenses are forecasted to grow at historical numbers (7.71%) because the company will allocate a similar percentage of revenues to maintain innovation levels. Management does not provide guidance for capital expenditures, thus my forecast is based on a historical average of 58.10 million plus an inflation rate of 2%.

Our estimates are pretty consistent with market consensus.

Valuation

We have used three different valuation models to calculate the company’s intrinsic value. The Discounted Cash Flow model computes an intrinsic value of $61.7, representing a 31% upside. This approach best reflects the value of the company as it takes into consideration specific growth assumptions we deem feasible.

The Dividend Discount model computes an intrinsic value of $28.5. Hologic does not paid a dividend and hasn’t indicated intentions of paying one in the near future. This model fails to accurately measure the company’s value and as a result we have decided to disregard the valuation.

Lastly, the Relative Valuation model measures an intrinsic value of $28.17, which corresponds to a 40% downside. The nature of Hologic’s business makes it difficult to find pure competitors, thus our decision to not weigh this price in my investment decision.

WACC

To calculate the cost of equity we used the 10-year Treasury Bond as a proxy for the risk-free rate, which on February 27th this value was 2.64%. The market risk premium is a Henry Fund estimate of 4.95% and for the beta we used the 5-year raw unadjusted calculation on Bloomberg. With all those inputs, we calculated a cost of equity of 6.75%. We used FINRA Corporate Bonds’ database to retrieve a yield of 5.14% for Hologic’s 10-year bond. This number serves as a proxy for the pre-tax cost of debt. Then, we adjusted the yield with a marginal tax rate of 20.00% (Hologic’s 10K) to arrive to an after-tax cost of debt of 4.11%. To calculate the market value of equity we multiplied the number of shares outstanding by the share price as of February 27th. Finally, the market value of debt was calculated by adding together the value of short-term debt, long-term debt and operating leases. We arrived to a WACC of 6.03%.

Sensitivity analysis

This model is most sensitive to WACC, CV Growth, and expenses. The WACC computed for the model is 6%, but if it were to increase to 9% the value of the company would be reduced to half its price or $31. Selling and Marketing expenses are computed at 17% of revenues. If this percentage were to increase to 22% the company’s value

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would decrease to $48. In a similar way, product costs are currently computed at 34% of revenues, but if they increase to 44% the company’s value would fall to $40. Conversely, if product costs decrease to 29% the company would be worth $72. Those scenarios though unlikely, are important to identify and monitor.

KEYS TO MONITOR

It is important to control margin progress and look out for any signs of economies of scales. In the most recent years, operating expenses have been increasing and a decreasing trend would improve bottom line numbers. The company has actively engaged in product expansion, thus allowing them to grow. A change in this trend would signal stagnation. Lastly, keep an eye on health care reforms that would decrease the number of insured people, in addition to any changes that would prevent people from visiting a doctor.

REFERENCES

1. U.S Preventive Services Task Force https://www.uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/Page/Document/UpdateSummaryFinal/cervical-cancer-screening

2. Hologic Website https://www.hologic.com/hologic-products/breast-skeletal/selenia-dimensions-mammography-system

3. Radiology Business https://www.radiologybusiness.com/topics/womens-imaging/theres-no-stopping-3d-mammography-now-can-it-sustain-pace

4. Hologic Press Release https://investors.hologic.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2018/Hologic-Launches-Three-in-One-Omni-Hysteroscope/default.aspx

5. Hologic’s Earnings Call Transcript https://s22.q4cdn.com/318328767/files/doc_financials/2019/q1/HOLX-USQ_Transcript_2019-01-30.pdf

6. Hologic Press Release https://investors.hologic.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2019/FDA-Grants-Clearance-for-LOCalizer-Implantable-Tag-for-Long-Term-Placement-in-Breast-Lesions/default.aspx

7. Bloomberg News https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-

19/general-electric-is-said-to-file-confidentially-for-health-ipo

8. Hologic’s Corporate Presentation https://s22.q4cdn.com/318328767/files/doc_presentations/2019/January-2019-Corporate-Presentation-01-31-2019.pdf

9. Grand View Research https://s22.q4cdn.com/318328767/files/doc_presentations/2019/January-2019-Corporate-Presentation-01-31-2019.pdf

10. U.S Breast Cancer Statistics https://www.breastcancer.org/symptoms/understand_bc/statistics

11. U.S Preventive Services Task Force https://www.uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/Page/Document/UpdateSummaryFinal/breast-cancer-screening1?ds=1&s=breast%20cancer

12. American Cancer Society https://www.cancer.org/research/infographics-gallery/breast-cancer-screening-guideline.html

13. CDC STD’s https://www.cdc.gov/nchhstp/newsroom/docs/factsheets/std-trends-508.pdf

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

Henry Fund reports are created by students enrolled in the Applied Securities Management program at the University of Iowa’s Tippie College of Business. These reports provide potential employers and other interested parties an example of the analytical skills, investment knowledge, and communication abilities of our students. Henry Fund analysts are not registered investment advisors, brokers or officially licensed financial professionals. The investment opinion contained in this report does not represent an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any of the aforementioned securities. Unless otherwise noted, facts and figures included in this report are from publicly available sources. This report is not a complete compilation of data, and its accuracy is not guaranteed. From time to time, the University of Iowa, its faculty, staff, students, or the Henry Fund may hold an investment position in the companies mentioned in this report.

Page 10: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

HOLOGICRevenue Decomposition

Fiscal Years Ending Sep 29 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023ERevenue by BusinessDiagnostics 1136.9 1184.2 1204.7 1165.1 1123.6 1168.5 1215.3 1263.9 1314.5 1353.9

YoY Growth % 4.2% 1.7% -3.3% -3.6% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0%Breast Health 587.9 685.1 719.7 708.1 758.5 788.8 820.4 845.0 870.4 896.5

Yoy Growth % 16.5% 5.1% -1.6% 7.1% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0%Medical Aesthetics - - - 178.1 278.4 281.2 284.0 286.8 289.7 292.6

Yoy Growth % - - - 56.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%GYN Surgical 306.6 334.6 391.0 426.1 421.1 429.5 438.1 446.9 455.8 464.9

Yoy Growth % 9.1% 16.9% 9.0% -1.2% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%Skeletal Health 63.5 66.6 62.6 60.4 62.3 62.9 63.6 64.2 64.8 65.5

Yoy Growth % 4.9% -6.0% -3.5% 3.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%Total Revenues by Business 2094.9 2270.4 2379.0 2538.0 2643.9 2731 2821 2907 2995 3073

Services and other revenues 435.8 434.6 453.7 520.8 574.0 591 609 627 646 665Yoy Growth % -0.3% 4.4% 14.8% 10.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Total Revenues 2,530.7$ 2,705.0$ 2,832.7$ 3,058.8$ 3,217.9$ 3,322.2$ 3,430.3$ 3,534.0$ 3,641.2$ 3,738.8$ Yoy Growth % 6.9% 4.7% 8.0% 5.2% 3.2% 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 2.7%

% Revenue by BusinessDiagnostics 54.3% 52.2% 50.6% 45.9% 42.5% 42.8% 43.1% 43.5% 43.9% 44.1%Breast Health 28.1% 30.2% 30.3% 27.9% 28.7% 28.9% 29.1% 29.1% 29.1% 29.2%Medical Aesthetics - - - 7.0% 10.5% 10.3% 10.1% 9.9% 9.7% 9.5%GYN Surgical 14.6% 14.7% 16.4% 16.8% 15.9% 15.7% 15.5% 15.4% 15.2% 15.1%Skeletal Health 3.0% 2.9% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Revenue by GeographyUnited States 1862.6 2017.9 2203.8 2346.1 2387.7 2325.6 2401.2 2473.8 2548.8 2617.1Europe 349.2 335.4 300.3 315.1 386.1 465.1 480.2 494.8 509.8 523.4Asia-Pacific 217.6 251.6 235.1 260.0 289.6 332.2 343.0 353.4 364.1 373.9Other international 101.2 100.1 93.5 137.6 154.5 199.3 205.8 212.0 218.5 224.3

Total Revenues 2530.7 2705.0 2832.7 3058.8 3217.9 3322.2 3430.3 3534.0 3641.2 3738.8

% Revenue by GeographyUnited States 73.6% 74.6% 77.8% 76.7% 74.2% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0%Europe 13.8% 12.4% 10.6% 10.3% 12.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%Asia-Pacific 8.6% 9.3% 8.3% 8.5% 9.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%Other international 4.0% 3.7% 3.3% 4.5% 4.8% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Page 11: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

HOLOGICIncome Statement In millions, except number of shares, which are reflected in thousands

Fiscal Years Ending Sep 29 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023ERevenues:

Product 2,094.9$ 2,270.4$ 2,379.0$ 2,538.0$ 2,643.9$ 2,731.0$ 2,821.3$ 2,906.8$ 2,995.2$ 3,073.4$ Service & other 435.8 434.6 453.7 520.8 574.0 591.2 609.0 627.2 646.0 665.4

2,530.7 2,705.0 2,832.7 3,058.8 3,217.9 3,322.2 3,430.3 3,534.0 3,641.2 3,738.8 Cost of revenues:

Product 731.3 755.5 756.8 881.8 886.6 919.1 949.5 978.3 1,008.0 1,034.3 Amortization of intangible assets 428.4 409.9 383.1 359.6 378.7 383.3 366.8 345.2 332.5 232.9 Depreciation 94.7 81.5 82.3 89.6 101.6 90.6 84.5 79.7 76.0 73.3 Service & other 118.0 135.6 136.9 169.3 213.6 196.9 202.8 208.9 215.1 221.6

Gross profit 1,158.3 1,322.5 1,473.6 1,558.5 1,637.4 1,732.3 1,826.7 1,922.0 2,009.5 2,176.7 Operating expenses:

Research & development expense 203.2 214.9 232.1 232.8 218.7 256.3 264.6 272.6 280.9 288.4 Selling & marketing expense 331.7 363.0 415.1 498.6 544.6 551.9 569.9 587.1 604.9 621.1 General & administrative expense 259.8 261.0 267.3 343.3 366.1 375.4 387.6 399.4 411.5 422.5 Impairment of intangible assets 32.2 - - - 46.0 - - - - - Impairment of goodwill - - - - 685.7 - - - - - Gain on sale of business - - - (899.7) - - - - - - Restructuring & divestiture charges 51.7 28.5 10.5 13.3 14.2 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7

878.6 867.4 925.0 188.3 1,875.3 1,196.3 1,234.8 1,271.7 1,309.9 1,344.7 Income (loss) from operations 279.7 455.1 548.6 1,370.2 (237.9) 536.0 592.0 650.3 699.6 832.0 Interest income 1.3 1.3 0.7 3.8 6.3 3.6 0.3 1.1 9.7 34.2 Interest expense (220.6) (205.5) (155.3) (153.2) (148.7) (169.7) (115.4) (115.0) (114.9) (159.3) Debt extinguishment gains (losses) (7.4) (62.7) (5.3) (3.2) (45.9) - - - - -Other income (expense), net (4.9) (11.0) 26.6 12.9 7.6 - - - - -Income (loss) before income taxes 48.1 177.2 415.3 1,230.5 (418.6) 369.9 476.9 536.4 594.4 706.9 Provision (benefit) for income taxes 30.8 45.6 84.5 475.0 (307.3) 74.0 95.4 107.3 118.9 141.4

Net income (loss) 17.3$ 131.6$ 330.8$ 755.5$ (111.3)$ 295.9$ 381.5$ 429.1$ 475.5$ 565.5$ Net income (loss) per common share:

Basic 0.06$ 0.47$ 1.18$ 2.70$ (0.40)$ 1.08$ 1.40$ 1.58$ 1.75$ 2.08$ Weighted average shares outstanding:

Basic 275,499 280,566 280,213 279,811 275,105 274,622 273,368 272,302 271,407 271,532Annual dividends per share 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Page 12: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

HOLOGICBalance Sheet In millions

Fiscal Years Ending Sep 29 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023EASSETSCurrent assets:

Cash & cash equivalents 736.1$ 491.3$ 548.4$ 540.6$ 666.7$ 187.3$ 769.9$ 1,398.6$ 2,938.2$ 3,951.6$ Restricted cash 5.5 1.4 - - - - - - - -Accounts receivable, net 396.0 416.1 447.0 533.5 579.2 546.5 564.3 581.4 599.0 615.0 Inventories 330.6 283.1 274.7 331.6 384.1 372.1 384.2 395.8 407.8 418.8 Prepaid income taxes 22.4 21.7 16.9 22.4 31.7 17.8 23.0 25.9 28.7 34.1 Prepaid expense & other current assets 35.8 33.8 39.6 50.5 61.5 50.7 52.3 53.9 55.5 57.0

Total current assets 1,565.8 1,266.4 1,326.6 1,478.6 1,723.2 1,174.5 1,793.7 2,455.6 4,029.2 5,076.5 Property, plant & equipment, net 461.9 457.1 460.2 491.2 478.2 445.7 420.5 401.2 386.9 376.4 Intangible assets, net 3,433.6 3,023.2 2,643.4 2,741.6 2,398.6 2,059.6 1,737.1 1,436.1 1,147.9 959.3 Goodwill 2,810.8 2,808.2 2,803.1 3,171.2 2,533.2 2,562.9 2,562.9 2,562.9 2,562.9 2,562.9 Deferred income tax assets 39.4 19.0 9.3 9.1 12.9 10.9 9.1 7.7 6.5 5.5 Other assets 142.6 115.2 74.4 75.6 84.8 87.0 89.3 91.7 94.1 96.6

Total assets 8,414.7$ 7,670.1$ 7,317.0$ 7,979.6$ 7,230.9$ 6,340.5$ 6,612.6$ 6,955.3$ 8,227.5$ 9,077.2$ LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITYCurrent liabilities:

Current portion of long-term debt 114.5 391.8 296.0 1,150.8 599.7 75.0 112.5 150.0 1,050.0 1,350.0 Accounts payable 92.1 117.0 156.9 166.6 192.2 184.9 190.9 196.7 202.6 208.1 Accrued expenses 262.1 272.1 287.6 375.3 436.1 412.7 426.1 439.0 452.3 464.5 Deferred revenue 150.9 163.1 161.4 171.2 172.9 184.6 190.6 196.3 202.3 207.7 Current portion of capital lease obligations - - - 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

Total current liabilities 619.6 944.0 901.9 1,865.5 1,402.6 858.9 921.8 983.7 1,909.0 2,231.9 Long-term debt, net of current portion 4,153.2 3,248.0 3,049.4 2,172.1 2,704.6 2,170.9 2,125.8 2,086.2 2,051.1 2,043.6 Capital lease obligations, net of current portion - - - 22.7 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 Deferred income tax liabilities 1,375.4 1,178.4 982.6 973.6 498.2 397.7 317.5 253.4 202.3 161.5 Deferred revenue 20.1 19.6 15.9 20.8 18.2 20.0 20.7 21.3 21.9 22.5 Other long-term liabilities 183.4 200.9 224.5 140.2 157.6 175.3 195.0 216.9 241.3 268.4 Stockholders' equity:

Common stock 5,661.0 5,562.7 5,563.2 5,633.7 5,674.2 5,706.9 5,739.5 5,772.2 5,804.9 5,837.6 Retained earnings (accumulated deficit) (3,600.6) (3,469.0) (3,138.2) (2,382.7) (2,494.0) (2,198.1) (1,816.5) (1,387.4) (911.9) (346.4) Treasury stock, at cost - - (250.0) (450.1) (725.9) (786.5) (886.5) (986.5) (1,086.5) (1,137.4) Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) 2.6 (14.5) (32.3) (16.2) (25.5) (25.5) (25.5) (25.5) (25.5) (25.5)

Total stockholders' equity 2,063.0 2,079.2 2,142.7 2,784.7 2,428.8 2,696.8 3,011.0 3,372.8 3,781.0 4,328.3 Total liabilities and stockholders' equity 8,414.7$ 7,670.1$ 7,317.0$ 7,979.6$ 7,230.9$ 6,340.5$ 6,612.6$ 6,955.3$ 8,227.5$ 9,077.2$

Page 13: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

HOLOGICCash Flow Statement In millions

Fiscal Years Ending Sep 29 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018OPERATING ACTIVITIESNet income (loss) 17.3$ 131.6$ 330.8$ 755.5$ (111.3)$ Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:

Depreciation 94.7 81.5 82.3 89.6 101.6 Amortization 428.5 409.9 383.1 359.6 378.7 Non-cash interest expense 68.7 63.8 52.1 49.4 15.0 Stock-based compensation expense 50.0 59.3 65.4 68.2 65.0 Excess tax benefit related to equity awards (5.7) (10.7) (11.0) - -Deferred income taxes & other non-cash taxes (243.1) (148.8) (155.8) (357.2) (477.3) Goodwill impairment charge - - - - 685.7 Intangible asset impairment charge - - - - 46.0 Fair value write-up of inventory sold - - - 39.7 1.1 Debt extinguishment losses 7.4 62.7 5.3 3.2 45.9 (Gain) loss on sale of business 5.5 9.6 - (899.7) -(Gain) loss on sale of investments - - (25.1) (5.6) -Asset impairment charges 38.4 - - - -Equity investments impairment charges 6.9 7.8 1.1 - -Loss on disposal of property & equipment 7.1 6.6 5.5 - -Other adjustments & non-cash items (11.8) 14.3 (2.9) 8.8 8.7 Changes in operating assets and liabilities, excluding the effect of acquisitions and dispositions

Accounts receivable 7.9 (30.3) (31.8) (41.5) (38.2) Inventories (44.7) 43.9 7.6 (11.6) (50.6) Prepaid income taxes 22.4 0.7 4.7 (8.7) (9.4) Prepaid expenses & other assets 17.3 5.7 (4.9) (2.4) (4.2) Accounts payable 11.8 25.5 40.1 (10.6) 23.9 Accrued expenses & other liabilities 14.7 36.9 45.6 (17.8) 53.8 Deferred revenue 15.1 16.1 (4.9) (10.6) (1.5)

Net cash flows from operating activities 508.4 786.1 787.2 8.3 732.9 INVESTING ACTIVITIES

Acquisition of businesses, net of cash acquired - - - (1,558.1) (76.5) Proceeds from sale of business 10.1 - - 1,865.0 -Purchase of property & equipment (44.3) (48.1) (47.3) (57.8) (58.4) Increase in equipment under customer usage agreements (35.9) (41.3) (47.2) (49.8) (47.2) Proceeds from sale of available-for-sale marketable securities - - 31.1 87.1 0.1 Purchase of cost method investment - - - - (6.0) Net sales (purchases) of insurance contracts 13.8 (6.4) (5.2) - -Purchases of mutual funds (29.7) - - - -Sales of mutual funds 22.4 10.0 5.2 - -Other activity (3.4) (0.3) (5.0) (0.6) (7.2)

Net cash flows from investing activities (67.0) (86.1) (68.4) 285.8 (195.2) FINANCING ACTIVITIES

Proceeds from long-term debt - 2,495.1 - - 1,500.0 Repayment of long-term debt & notes payable (595.0) (3,095.0) (75.0) (84.4) (1,359.4) Proceeds from senior notes - - - - 1,350.0 Repayment of senior notes - - - - (1,037.7) Payments to extinguish convertible notes - (543.7) (392.8) (396.2) (546.2) Payment of acquired long-term debt - - - - (3.3) Proceeds from amounts borrowed under revolving credit line - 358.0 50.0 345.0 1,150.0 Repayment of amounts borrowed under revolving credit line - (183.0) (225.0) - (1,195.0) Proceeds from accounts receivable securitization program - - 200.0 48.0 34.0 Repayments under accounts receivable securitization program - - - (48.0) (9.0) Repurchase of common stock - - (250.0) (200.1) (275.8) Payment of debt issuance costs (2.4) (22.7) - - (23.5) Purchase of interest rate caps - (13.2) - (1.9) (3.7) Payment of deferred acquisition consideration (5.0) - - - -Net proceeds from issuance of common stock pursuant to employee stock plans 81.4 70.0 38.5 49.0 33.2 Payments under capital lease obligations - - - (0.9) (1.7) Excess tax benefit related to equity awards 5.7 10.7 11.0 - -Payment of minimum tax withholdings on net share settlements of equity awards (9.8) (12.9) (16.4) (19.7) (16.7)

Net cash flows from financing activities (525.1) (936.7) (659.7) (309.2) (404.8) Effect of exchange rate changes on cash & cash equivalents (2.7) (8.1) (2.0) 7.3 (6.8) Net increase (decrease) in cash & cash equivalents (86.4) (244.8) 57.1 (7.8) 126.1 Cash & cash equivalents, beginning of year 822.5 736.1 491.3 548.4 540.6 Cash & cash equivalents, end of year 736.1$ 491.3$ 548.4$ 540.6$ 666.7$

Page 14: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

HOLOGICCash Flow Statement In millions

Fiscal Years Ending Sep 29 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023EOPERATING ACTIVITIESNet income 295.9$ 381.5$ 429.1$ 475.5$ 565.5$ Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:

Depreciation 90.6 84.5 79.7 76.0 73.3 Amortization 383.3 366.8 345.2 332.5 232.9 Change in deferred taxes (98.5) (78.5) (62.6) (49.9) (39.8)

Changes in working capital accountsAccount receivable 32.7 (17.8) (17.1) (17.6) (16.1) Inventories 12.0 (12.1) (11.6) (12.0) (10.9) Prepaid income taxes 13.9 (5.2) (2.9) (2.8) (5.4) Prepaid expenses and other current assets 10.8 (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) (1.5) Accounts payable (7.3) 6.0 5.8 6.0 5.4 Accrued expenses (23.4) 13.4 12.9 13.3 12.1 Current deferred revenue 11.7 6.0 5.8 6.0 5.4 Deferred revenue 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 Other long-term liabilities 17.7 19.7 21.9 24.4 27.1

Net cash flows from operating activities 741.3 763.4 805.2 850.3 848.7 INVESTING ACTIVITIES

Purchase of property & equipment (58.1) (59.3) (60.4) (61.7) (62.9) Purchase of intangible assets (44.3) (44.3) (44.3) (44.3) (44.3) Change in goodwill (29.7) - - - - Change in other assets (2.2) (2.3) (2.4) (2.4) (2.5)

Net cash flows from investing activities (134.3) (105.8) (107.1) (108.4) (109.7) FINANCING ACTIVITIES

Change in current portion of long-term debt (524.7) 37.5 37.5 900.0 300.0 Change in long-term debt (533.7) (45.2) (39.6) (35.1) (7.4) Proceeds from issuance of common stock (ESOP) 32.7 32.7 32.7 32.7 32.7 Repurchases of common stock (60.6) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (50.9) Changes in AOCI - - - - -

Net cash flows from financing activities (1,086.3) (75.0) (69.4) 797.5 274.3

Net increase (decrease) in cash & cash equivalents (479.4) 582.5 628.7 1,539.5 1,013.4 Cash & cash equivalents, beginning of year 666.7$ 187.3$ 769.9$ 1,398.6$ 2,938.2$ Cash & cash equivalents, end of year 187.3$ 769.9$ 1,398.6$ 2,938.2$ 3,951.6$

Page 15: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

HOLOGICCommon Size Income Statement

Fiscal Years Ending Sep 29 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023ERevenues:

Product 82.8% 83.9% 84.0% 83.0% 82.2% 82.2% 82.2% 82.3% 82.3% 82.2%Service & other 17.2% 16.1% 16.0% 17.0% 17.8% 17.8% 17.8% 17.7% 17.7% 17.8%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%Cost of Revenues:

Product 28.9% 27.9% 26.7% 28.8% 27.6% 27.7% 27.7% 27.7% 27.7% 27.7%Amortization of intangible assets 16.9% 15.2% 13.5% 11.8% 11.8% 11.5% 10.7% 9.8% 9.1% 6.2%Depreciation 3.7% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 3.2% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0%Service & other 4.7% 5.0% 4.8% 5.5% 6.6% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9%

Gross profit 45.8% 48.9% 52.0% 51.0% 50.9% 52.1% 53.3% 54.4% 55.2% 58.2%Operating Expenses:

Research & development expense 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 7.6% 6.8% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7%Selling & marketing expense 13.1% 13.4% 14.7% 16.3% 16.9% 16.6% 16.6% 16.6% 16.6% 16.6%General & administrative expense 10.3% 9.6% 9.4% 11.2% 11.4% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3%Impairment of intangible assets 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Impairment of goodwill 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Gain on sale of business 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -29.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Restructuring & divestiture charges 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%

34.7% 32.1% 32.7% 6.2% 58.3% 36.0% 36.0% 36.0% 36.0% 36.0%Income (loss) from operations 11.1% 16.8% 19.4% 44.8% -7.4% 16.1% 17.3% 18.4% 19.2% 22.3%Interest income 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9%Interest expense -8.7% -7.6% -5.5% -5.0% -4.6% -5.1% -3.4% -3.3% -3.2% -4.3%Debt extinguishment gains (losses) -0.3% -2.3% -0.2% -0.1% -1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Other income (expense), net -0.2% -0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Income (loss) before income taxes 1.9% 6.6% 14.7% 40.2% -13.0% 11.1% 13.9% 15.2% 16.3% 18.9%Provision (benefit) for income taxes 1.2% 1.7% 3.0% 15.5% -9.5% 2.2% 2.8% 3.0% 3.3% 3.8%Net income (loss) 0.7% 4.9% 11.7% 24.7% -3.5% 8.9% 11.1% 12.1% 13.1% 15.1%

Page 16: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

HOLOGICCommon Size Balance Sheet

Fiscal Years Ending Sep 29 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023EASSETSCurrent assets:

Cash & cash equivalents 29.1% 18.2% 19.4% 17.7% 20.7% 5.6% 22.4% 39.6% 80.7% 105.7%Restricted cash 0.2% 0.1% - - - - - - - -Accounts receivable, net 15.6% 15.4% 15.8% 17.4% 18.0% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5%Inventories 13.1% 10.5% 9.7% 10.8% 11.9% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2%Prepaid income taxes 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9%Prepaid expenses & other current assets 1.4% 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

Total current assets 61.9% 46.8% 46.8% 48.3% 53.6% 35.4% 52.3% 69.5% 110.7% 135.8%Property, plant & equipment, net 18.3% 16.9% 16.2% 16.1% 14.9% 13.4% 12.3% 11.4% 10.6% 10.1%Intangible assets, net 135.7% 111.8% 93.3% 89.6% 74.5% 62.0% 50.6% 40.6% 31.5% 25.7%Goodwill 111.1% 103.8% 99.0% 103.7% 78.7% 77.1% 74.7% 72.5% 70.4% 68.5%Deferred income tax assets 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%Other assets 5.6% 4.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%

Total assets 332.5% 283.6% 258.3% 260.9% 224.7% 190.9% 192.8% 196.8% 226.0% 242.8%LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITYCurrent liabilities:

Current portion of long-term debt 4.5% 14.5% 10.4% 37.6% 18.6% 2.3% 3.3% 4.2% 28.8% 36.1%Accounts payable 3.6% 4.3% 5.5% 5.4% 6.0% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6%Accrued expenses 10.4% 10.1% 10.2% 12.3% 13.6% 12.4% 12.4% 12.4% 12.4% 12.4%Deferred revenue 6.0% 6.0% 5.7% 5.6% 5.4% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6%Current portion of capital lease obligations - - - 0.1% 0.1% - - - - -

Total current liabilities 24.5% 34.9% 31.8% 61.0% 43.6% 25.9% 26.9% 27.8% 52.4% 59.7%Long-term debt, net of current portion 164.1% 120.1% 107.6% 71.0% 84.0% 65.3% 62.0% 59.0% 56.3% 54.7%Capital lease obligations, net of current portion - - - 0.7% 0.6% - - - - -Deferred income tax liabilities 54.3% 43.6% 34.7% 31.8% 15.5% 12.0% 9.3% 7.2% 5.6% 4.3%Deferred revenue 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%Other long-term liabilities 7.2% 7.4% 7.9% 4.6% 4.9% 5.3% 5.7% 6.1% 6.6% 7.2%Stockholders' equity:

Common stock 223.7% 205.6% 196.4% 184.2% 176.3% 171.8% 167.3% 163.3% 159.4% 156.1%Retained earnings (accumulated deficit) -142.3% -128.2% -110.8% -77.9% -77.5% -66.2% -53.0% -39.3% -25.0% -9.3%Treasury stock, at cost - - -8.8% -14.7% -22.6% -23.7% -25.8% -27.9% -29.8% -30.4%Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)0.1% -0.5% -1.1% -0.5% -0.8% -0.8% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7%

Total stockholders' equity 81.5% 76.9% 75.6% 91.0% 75.5% 81.2% 87.8% 95.4% 103.8% 115.8%Total liabilities and stockholders' equity 332.5% 283.6% 258.3% 260.9% 224.7% 190.9% 192.8% 196.8% 226.0% 242.8%

Page 17: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

HOLOGICValue Driver Estimation In millions

Fiscal Years Ending Sep 29 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023ENOPLATEBITA CalculationOperating Revenue 2,530.7 2,705.0 2,832.7 3,058.8 3,217.9 3,322.2 3,430.3 3,534.0 3,641.2 3,738.8 - Cost of Revenues 849.3 755.5 756.8 881.8 886.6 919.1 949.5 978.3 1,008.0 1,034.3 - Selling, General and Administrative Expenses 591.5 624.0 682.4 841.9 910.7 927.3 957.5 986.4 1,016.3 1,043.6 - Depreciation 94.7 81.5 82.3 89.6 101.6 90.6 84.5 79.7 76.0 73.3 - Amortization of Intangible Assets 428.4 409.9 383.1 359.6 378.7 383.3 366.8 345.2 332.5 232.9 - Research and Development Expenses 203.2 214.9 232.1 232.8 218.7 256.3 264.6 272.6 280.9 288.4 + Implied Interest on Operating Leases 3.8 3.4 3.2 4.5 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 EBITA 363.6 623.0 699.4 656.3 726.1 749.4 811.1 875.2 930.6 1,069.3

Adjusted TaxesProvision for Income Taxes 30.8 45.6 84.5 475.0 (307.3) 74.0 95.4 107.3 118.9 141.4 + Tax on Interest Expense 44.1 41.1 31.1 30.6 29.7 33.9 23.1 23.0 23.0 31.9 - Tax on Interest Income (0.3) (0.3) (0.1) (0.8) (1.3) (0.7) (0.1) (0.2) (1.9) (6.8) + Tax on Impairment of Intangible Assets 6.4 - - - 9.2 - - - - - - Tax on Debt Extinguinshment (1.5) (12.5) (1.1) (0.6) (9.2) - - - - - - Tax on Gain on Sale of Business - - - (179.9) - - - - - - + Tax on Restructuring & Divestiture Charges 10.3 5.7 2.1 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 + Tax on Impairment of Goodwill - - - - 137.1 - - - - - - Tax on Operating Lease Interest (0.8) (0.7) (0.6) (0.9) (0.8) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.6) Total Adjusted Taxes 90.0 78.8 115.8 326.3 (139.7) 109.0 120.2 131.9 141.8 168.3

NOPLAT CalculationEBITA 363.6 623.0 699.4 656.3 726.1 749.4 811.1 875.2 930.6 1,069.3 - Adjusted Taxes (90.0) (78.8) (115.8) (326.3) 139.7 (109.0) (120.2) (131.9) (141.8) (168.3) + Change in Deferred Taxes - (176.6) (186.1) (8.8) (479.2) (98.5) (78.5) (62.6) (49.9) (39.8) NOPLAT 273.6 367.6 397.5 321.1 386.6 542.0 612.4 680.8 738.9 861.2

Operating Current Assets:Normal Cash (17% of sales) 25.3 27.1 28.3 30.6 32.2 33.2 34.3 35.3 36.4 37.4 Accounts Receivable, Net 396.0 416.1 447.0 533.5 579.2 546.5 564.3 581.4 599.0 615.0 Prepaid Income Taxes 22.4 21.7 16.9 22.4 31.7 17.8 23.0 25.9 28.7 34.1 Inventory 330.6 283.1 274.7 331.6 384.1 372.1 384.2 395.8 407.8 418.8 Prepaid Expenses & Other 35.8 33.8 39.6 50.5 61.5 50.7 52.3 53.9 55.5 57.0

Total Operating CA 810.1 781.8 806.5 968.6 1,088.7 1,020.3 1,058.1 1,092.3 1,127.4 1,162.3

Operating Current Liabilities:Accounts Payable 92.1 117.0 156.9 166.6 192.2 184.9 190.9 196.7 202.6 208.1 Accrued Expenses 262.1 272.1 287.6 375.3 436.1 412.7 426.1 439.0 452.3 464.5 Deferred Revenue 150.9 163.1 161.4 171.2 172.9 184.6 190.6 196.3 202.3 207.7 Current Portion of Capital Lease Obligations - - - 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

Total Operating CL 505.1 552.2 605.9 714.7 802.9 783.9 809.3 833.7 859.0 881.9 Net Operating Working Capital 305.0 229.6 200.6 253.9 285.8 236.5 248.8 258.6 268.5 280.4

Plus: Net PPE 461.9 457.1 460.2 491.2 478.2 445.7 420.5 401.2 386.9 376.4

Plus: Other Operating Assets:Net Intangible Assets (non-goodwill) 3,433.6 3,023.2 2,643.4 2,741.6 2,398.6 2,059.6 1,737.1 1,436.1 1,147.9 959.3 Capitalized PV of Operating Leases 74.5 65.6 61.7 87.7 74.3 72.4 67.4 63.6 60.7 58.5 Other Operating Assets 30.3 29.5 33.5 31.6 31.8 32.8 33.8 34.8 35.8 36.8

Total Other Operating Assets 3,538.4 3,118.3 2,738.6 2,860.9 2,504.7 2,164.7 1,838.3 1,534.6 1,244.4 1,054.6

Less: Other Operating Liabilities:Deferred Revenue (LT) 20.1 19.6 15.9 20.8 18.2 20.0 20.7 21.3 21.9 22.5 Other Operating Liabilities 172.6 190.8 213.3 130.2 147.7 148.7 149.7 150.7 151.7 152.7

Total Other Operating Liabilities 192.7 210.4 229.2 151.0 165.9 168.7 170.4 172.0 173.6 175.2

Invested Capital 4,112.6 3,594.6 3,170.3 3,455.0 3,102.8 2,678.2 2,337.2 2,022.4 1,726.1 1,536.2

NOPLAT 367.6 397.5 321.1 386.6 542.0 612.4 680.8 738.9 861.2 Less: change in IC (518.0) (424.3) 284.7 (352.2) (424.6) (341.0) (314.8) (296.3) (189.9) FCF 885.6 821.8 36.4 738.8 966.6 953.4 995.6 1,035.2 1,051.1

NOPLAT 367.6 397.5 321.1 386.6 542.0 612.4 680.8 738.9 861.2 Beginning IC 4,112.6 3,594.6 3,170.3 3,455.0 3,102.8 2,678.2 2,337.2 2,022.4 1,726.1 ROIC 8.9% 11.1% 10.1% 11.2% 17.5% 22.9% 29.1% 36.5% 49.9%

Beginning IC 4,112.6 3,594.6 3,170.3 3,455.0 3,102.8 2,678.2 2,337.2 2,022.4 1,726.1 Multiplied by: (ROIC-WACC) 2.9% 5.0% 4.1% 5.2% 11.4% 16.8% 23.1% 30.5% 43.9%EP 119.6 180.7 129.9 178.3 354.8 450.9 539.8 617.0 757.1

Page 18: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

HOLOGICWeighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Estimation

Cost of EquityRisk Free Rate 2.64%Market Risk Premium 4.95%Beta 0.83Cost of Equity (Re) = 6.75%

Cost of DebtPre-tax Cost of Debt 5.14%Marginal Tax Rate 20.00%After Tax Cost of Debt (Rd) = 4.11%

Market Value of EquityShares Outstanding 275Share Price $46.96Market Value of Equity (E) = 12,919$

Market Value of DebtShort Term Debt 599.7Long Term Debt 2704.6PV of Operating Leases 74Total Value of Debt (D) = 3,379$

Total Value of the Firm (D + E = V) 16,298$

WACC 6.03%

Page 19: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

HOLOGICDiscounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Economic Profit (EP) Valuation Models

Key Inputs: CV Growth 2.00% CV ROIC 49.89% WACC 6.03% Cost of Equity 6.75%

Fiscal Years Ending Sep 29 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E

DCF ModelPeriod 1 2 3 4 5 NOPLAT 542.0 612.4 680.8 738.9 861.2 - Capital Expenditures (424.6) (341.0) (314.8) (296.3) (189.9)Free Cash Flow (FCF) 966.6 953.4 995.6 1,035.2 1,051.1 CV 20,508.7 Discount Factor 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 Present Value of FCF 911.6 848.0 835.2 17,044.8 Total Value of Operating Assets 19,639.6

+ Excess Cash 634.5 - PV of Operating Leases (74.3) - PV of ESOP (133.4) - Long-term Debt (2,704.6) - Short-term Debt (599.7) - Pension Liabilities (9.7) Value of Equity 16,752.3 Shares Outstanding 275.1 Intrinsic Value 60.9$ Partial Year Adjusted Value 62.6$

EP ModelPeriod 1 2 3 4 5 Economic Profit to Discount 354.8 450.9 539.8 617.0 757.1 Continuing Value 18,782.5 Discount Factor 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 Present Value of FCF 334.6 401.1 452.8 15,348.2 Total PV 16,536.8 + Beginning Invested Capital 3,102.8 Total Value of Operating Assets 19,639.6

+ Excess Cash 634.5 - PV of Operating Leases (74.3) - PV of ESOP (133.4) - Long-term Debt (2,704.6) - Short-term Debt (599.7) - Pension Liabilities (9.7) Value of Equity 16,752.3 Shares Outstanding 275.1 Intrinsic Value 60.9$ Partial Year Adjusted Value 62.6$

Page 20: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

HOLOGICDividend Discount Model (DDM) or Fundamental P/E Valuation Model

Fiscal Years Ending Sep 29 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E

EPS 1.08$ 1.40$ 1.58$ 1.75$ 2.08$

Key Assumptions CV growth 2.00% CV ROE 13.07% Cost of Equity 6.75%

Future Cash FlowsPeriod 1 2 3 4 5

P/E Multiple (CV Year) 17.8 EPS (CV Year) 2.1 Future Stock Price 37.1 Dividends Per Share -$ -$ -$ 0.0 0.0 Future Cash Flows 37.1

Discounted Cash Flows 28.6

Intrinsic Value 28.6$ Partial Year Adjusted Value 29.4$

Page 21: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

HOLOGICRelative Valuation Models

EPS EPS Est. 5yrTicker Company Price 2019E 2020E P/E 19 P/E 20 EPS gr. PEG 19 PEG 20DHR Danaher Corp $126.35 $4.20 $4.63 23.6 21.9 7.30 3.24 3.00 PKI Perkinelmer Inc $93.87 $3.12 $3.72 23.2 20.4 14.42 1.61 1.41 GHDX Genomic Health Inc $76.59 $1.38 $1.64 55.6 48.4 240.40 0.23 0.20 QGEN Qiagen $38.56 $1.03 $1.26 27.1 23.9 10.63 2.55 2.25 BSX Boston Scientific $39.92 $1.14 $1.33 25.8 22.5 12.30 2.10 1.83 BDX Becton, Dickinson and Co $250.27 $12.91 $13.65 20.7 18.3 11.64 1.78 1.57 ABT Abbott Laboratories $77.21 $2.07 $2.42 23.7 21.2 10.74 2.21 1.97 RHHBY Roche Holdings AG $34.82 $1.95 $1.97 15.0 14.5 4.80 3.13 3.02

Average 26.8 23.9 2.1 1.9

HOLX HOLOGIC $46.96 $ 1.08 $ 1.40 43.6 33.6 17.91 2.4 1.9

Implied Value: Relative P/E (EPS16) $ 28.93 Relative P/E (EPS17) 33.33$ PEG Ratio (EPS16) 40.61$ PEG Ratio (EPS17) 47.65$

Page 22: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

HOLOGICKey Management Ratios

Fiscal Years Ending Sep 29 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E

Liquidity RatiosCurrent Ratio = CA/CL 2.53 1.34 1.47 0.79 1.23 1.37 1.95 2.50 2.11 2.27 Quick Ratio = (Cash+AR)/CL 1.83 0.96 1.10 0.58 0.89 0.85 1.45 2.01 1.85 2.05 Net Current Assets % TA 18.61% 16.51% 18.13% 18.53% 23.83% 18.52% 27.13% 35.31% 48.97% 55.93%

Activity or Asset-Management RatiosTotal Asset Turnover 0.34 0.38 0.40 0.42 0.49 0.53 0.52 0.48 0.43Accrued Expenses Turnover 10.13 10.12 9.23 7.93 7.83 8.18 8.17 8.17 8.16PPE Turnover 5.89 6.18 6.43 6.64 7.19 7.92 8.60 9.24 9.80Inventory Turnover 2.90 3.20 3.47 3.07 2.95 3.05 3.04 3.04 3.04

Financial Leverage RatiosDebt to Assets = Total Debt/Total Assets 0.51 0.47 0.46 0.42 0.46 0.35 0.34 0.32 0.38 0.37Debt to Equity = Total Debt/Total Equity 2.07 1.75 1.56 1.19 1.36 0.83 0.74 0.66 0.82 0.78Debt to Capital = Debt/Debt+Equity 0.67 0.64 0.61 0.54 0.58 0.45 0.43 0.40 0.45 0.44LT Debt/Equity 2.01 1.56 1.42 0.78 1.11 0.81 0.71 0.62 0.54 0.47

Profitability RatiosReturn on Assets = NI/Total Assets 0.21% 1.72% 4.52% 9.47% -1.54% 4.67% 5.77% 6.17% 5.78% 6.23%Return on Equity = NI/Total Equity 0.84% 6.33% 15.44% 27.13% -4.58% 10.97% 12.67% 12.72% 12.58% 13.07%Gross Margin = (Sales-COGS)/Sales 66.44% 67.06% 68.45% 65.64% 65.81% 66.41% 66.41% 66.41% 66.41% 66.41%Operating Margin = (Operating Income/TR) 11.05% 16.82% 19.37% 44.80% -7.39% 16.13% 17.26% 18.40% 19.21% 22.25%Net Income Margin = (NI/Revenue) 0.68% 4.87% 11.68% 24.70% -3.46% 8.91% 11.12% 12.14% 13.06% 15.13%

Page 23: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

Present Value of Operating Lease Obligations (2018) Present Value of Operating Lease Obligations (2017) Present Value of Operating Lease Obligations (2016) Present Value of Operating Lease Obligations (2015) Present Value of Operating Lease Obligations (2014)

Operating Operating Operating Operating OperatingFiscal Years Ending Sep 29 Leases Fiscal Years Ending Sep 29 Leases Fiscal Years Ending Sep 29 Leases Fiscal Years Ending Sep 29 Leases Fiscal Years Ending Sep 29 Leases2019 21 2018 20.9 2017 17.3 2016 16.3 2015 18.92020 16.9 2019 18 2018 15.5 2017 14.5 2016 15.12021 13.9 2020 15.2 2019 10.5 2018 12.5 2017 12.52022 11.2 2021 12.5 2020 8.3 2019 7.9 2018 11.22023 6.7 2022 11.4 2021 6.6 2020 6 2019 7.3Thereafter 17.9 Thereafter 27 Thereafter 14.3 Thereafter 21.8 Thereafter 24.7Total Minimum Payments 87.6 Total Minimum Payments 105 Total Minimum Payments 72.5 Total Minimum Payments 79 Total Minimum Payments 89.7Less: Interest 13 Less: Interest 17 Less: Interest 11 Less: Interest 13 Less: Interest 15PV of Minimum Payments 74 PV of Minimum Payments 88 PV of Minimum Payments 62 PV of Minimum Payments 66 PV of Minimum Payments 74

Capitalization of Operating Leases Capitalization of Operating Leases Capitalization of Operating Leases Capitalization of Operating Leases Capitalization of Operating Leases

Pre-Tax Cost of Debt 5.14% Pre-Tax Cost of Debt 5.14% Pre-Tax Cost of Debt 5.14% Pre-Tax Cost of Debt 5.14% Pre-Tax Cost of Debt 5.14%Number Years Implied by Year 6 Payment 2.7 Number Years Implied by Year 6 Payment 2.4 Number Years Implied by Year 6 Payment 2.2 Number Years Implied by Year 6 Payment 3.6 Number Years Implied by Year 6 Payment 3.4

Lease PV Lease Lease PV Lease Lease PV Lease Lease PV Lease Lease PV LeaseYear Commitment Payment Year Commitment Payment Year Commitment Payment Year Commitment Payment Year Commitment Payment1 21 20.0 1 20.9 19.9 1 17.3 16.5 1 16.3 15.5 1 18.9 18.02 16.9 15.3 2 18 16.3 2 15.5 14.0 2 14.5 13.1 2 15.1 13.73 13.9 12.0 3 15.2 13.1 3 10.5 9.0 3 12.5 10.8 3 12.5 10.84 11.2 9.2 4 12.5 10.2 4 8.3 6.8 4 7.9 6.5 4 11.2 9.25 6.7 5.2 5 11.4 8.9 5 6.6 5.1 5 6 4.7 5 7.3 5.76 & beyond 6.7 12.7 6 & beyond 11.4 19.3 6 & beyond 6.6 10.3 6 & beyond 6 15.1 6 & beyond 7.3 17.2PV of Minimum Payments 74.3 PV of Minimum Payments 87.7 PV of Minimum Payments 61.7 PV of Minimum Payments 65.6 PV of Minimum Payments 74.5

Page 24: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

Effects of ESOP Exercise and Share Repurchases on Common Stock Balance Sheet Account and Number of Shares Outstanding

Number of Options Outstanding (shares): 6,000Average Time to Maturity (years): 5.90Expected Annual Number of Options Exercised: 1,017

Current Average Strike Price: 32.13$ Cost of Equity: 9.00%Current Stock Price: $46.96

2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024EIncrease in Shares Outstanding: 1,017 1,017 1,017 1,017 1,017 915Average Strike Price: 32.13$ 32.13$ 32.13$ 32.13$ 32.13$ 32.13$ Increase in Common Stock Account: 32,675 32,675 32,675 32,675 32,675 29,407

Change in Treasury Stock 60,600 100,000 100,000 100,000 50,900 0Expected Price of Repurchased Shares: 40.40$ 44.04$ 48.00$ 52.32$ 57.03$ 62.16$ Number of Shares Repurchased: 1,500 2,271 2,083 1,911 893 -

Shares Outstanding (beginning of the year) 275,105 274,622 273,368 272,302 271,407 271,532Plus: Shares Issued Through ESOP 1,017 1,017 1,017 1,017 1,017 915Less: Shares Repurchased in Treasury 1,500 2,271 2,083 1,911 893 - Shares Outstanding (end of the year) 274,622 273,368 272,302 271,407 271,532 272,447

Page 25: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

VALUATION OF OPTIONS GRANTED IN ESOP

Ticker Symbol HOLXCurrent Stock Price $46.96Risk Free Rate 2.64%Current Dividend Yield 0.00%Annualized St. Dev. of Stock Returns 27.46% 27.46

Average Average B-S ValueRange of Number Exercise Remaining Option of OptionsOutstanding Options of Shares Price Life (yrs) Price GrantedRange 1 6,000 32.13 5.90 22.24$ 133,442$ Total 6,000 32.13$ 5.90 22.24$ 133,442$

Page 26: HOLOGIC (HOLX) March 4, 2019 - University of IowaHologic is considered a market leader in breast health. This segment generated 23% of total revenue in 2018. We forecast it to grow

Beta Average Capex62.56 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 62.56 (35.0) (45.0) (54.5) (65.0) (75.0) (85.0)

3.0% 113.89 108.00 102.66 97.79 93.34 89.25 85.47 14.0% 104.84 104.33 103.84 103.29 102.78 102.263.5% 101.82 96.26 91.25 86.70 82.55 78.75 75.26 19.0% 94.39 93.87 93.38 92.84 92.33 91.814.0% 91.93 86.70 81.98 77.72 73.85 70.31 67.07 24.0% 83.94 83.42 82.93 82.39 81.87 81.36

Risk 4.5% 83.70 78.75 74.31 70.31 66.68 63.37 60.35 Product 29.0% 73.48 72.97 72.48 71.94 71.42 70.90Premium 5.0% 77.37 72.66 68.45 64.66 61.23 58.11 55.26 Cost 34.0% 63.03 62.52 62.03 61.48 60.97 60.45

5.5% 70.73 66.30 62.34 58.78 55.56 52.65 49.99 39.0% 52.58 52.06 51.57 51.03 50.52 50.006.0% 65.54 61.33 57.57 54.20 51.17 48.41 45.90 44.0% 42.13 41.61 41.12 40.58 40.06 39.556.5% 61.00 56.99 53.42 50.22 47.34 44.73 42.36 49.0% 31.68 31.16 30.67 30.13 29.61 29.107.0% 56.99 53.16 49.76 46.71 43.97 41.50 39.25 54.0% 21.22 20.71 20.22 19.67 19.16 18.647.5% 53.42 49.76 46.51 43.61 41.00 38.64 36.50 59.0% 10.77 10.25 9.76 9.22 8.71 8.19

CV Growth R&D Expense62.56 0.0% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 62.56 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

2.3% 46.91 55.31 60.99 68.20 77.65 90.55 109.23 2.0% 107.99 102.91 97.82 92.74 87.65 82.562.4% 46.16 54.27 59.73 66.63 75.62 87.80 105.26 7.0% 95.68 90.59 85.51 80.42 75.34 70.252.5% 45.43 53.26 58.52 65.13 73.68 85.20 101.55 Selling and 12.0% 83.37 78.28 73.20 68.11 63.02 57.94

Risk-free 2.6% 44.72 52.29 57.35 63.68 71.84 82.75 98.07 Marketing 17.0% 71.05 65.97 60.88 55.80 50.71 45.62Rate 2.7% 44.02 51.34 56.21 62.29 70.07 80.41 94.82 Expense 22.0% 58.74 53.65 48.57 43.48 38.40 33.31

2.8% 43.34 50.43 55.12 60.95 68.39 78.20 91.75 27.0% 46.43 41.34 36.26 31.17 26.08 21.002.9% 42.68 49.54 54.06 59.66 66.77 76.10 88.87 32.0% 34.11 29.03 23.94 18.86 13.77 8.683.0% 42.04 48.68 53.04 58.42 65.22 74.09 86.15 37.0% 21.80 16.71 11.63 6.54 1.46 -3.633.1% 41.41 47.85 52.05 57.23 63.74 72.18 83.58

WACC Breast Health Growth 201962.56 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 62.56 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%10.0% 231.53 112.56 72.84 52.93 40.94 32.93 27.18 0.0% 60.78 60.96 61.14 61.31 61.49 61.6720.0% 260.10 126.31 81.66 59.30 45.85 36.87 30.43 1.0% 61.05 61.23 61.40 61.58 61.76 61.9430.0% 269.63 130.89 84.60 61.42 47.49 38.18 31.52 Diagnostics 2.0% 61.32 61.49 61.67 61.85 62.03 62.20

CV ROIC 40.0% 274.39 133.18 86.07 62.48 48.31 38.84 32.06 Growth 2019 3.0% 61.58 61.76 61.94 62.12 62.29 62.4750.0% 277.25 134.56 86.95 63.12 48.80 39.23 32.38 4.0% 61.85 62.03 62.21 62.38 62.56 62.7460.0% 279.15 135.47 87.54 63.54 49.12 39.49 32.60 5.0% 62.12 62.30 62.47 62.65 62.83 63.0170.0% 280.51 136.13 87.96 63.85 49.36 39.68 32.76 6.0% 62.39 62.56 62.74 62.92 63.10 63.27