home on the ranges following early september moves

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  • 8/8/2019 Home on the Ranges following early September Moves

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    Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

    A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock

    picks, and commentary can be found HERE.

    September 7, 2010 Home on t he Ranges fo l lowing ear ly Septem ber Moves

    The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury is between my annual value level at 2.813 and my

    quarterly risky level at 2.495. Golds is between my semiannual pivots at $1218.7 and $1260.8with my monthly risky level at $1263.8. Crude oil is between its August 25th low at $70.76 andmy annual pivot at $77.05. The euro is between its August 24th low of 1.2591 and its 50-daysimple moving average at 1.2834, which is a negative for stocks. The major equity averagesstill straddle monthly pivots at 10,164 on Dow Industrials, 1074.9 S&P 500, 2196 NASDAQ, 4364Dow Transports and 652.82 on Russell 2000. The Dow is between my annual pivot at 10,379 andmy quarterly risky level at 10,558.

    10-Year Note (2.706) My annual value levels are 2.813 and 2.999 with a daily pivot at 2.684 andmonthly, weekly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.562, 2.507, 2.495 and 2.249.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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    Comex Gold ($1248.2) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are $1223.7,$1218.7, $1140.9 and $1115.2 with daily, semiannual and monthly risky levels at $1257.5, $1260.8

    and $1263.8. Note that gold is still overbought on its daily chart.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Nymex Crude Oil ($74.34) My monthly pivot is $74.45 with weekly, annual and semiannual risky

    levels at $76.76, $77.05 and $83.94.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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    The Euro (1.2893) Quarterly and monthly value levels are 1.2167, 1.1721 and 1.1424 with a dailypivot at 1.2854, and weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.3168 and 1.4733.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Daily Dow: (10,448) Monthly and quarterly value levels are 10,164 and 7,812 with daily and annualpivots at 10,339 and 10,379, and weekly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 10,515, 10,558 and11,235. My annual risky level at 11,235 was tested at the April 26thhigh of 11,258.01. The 50-daysimple moving average is 10,266 with the 21-day at 10,290, and 200-day simple moving average

    as resistance at 10,451, which was tested on Friday.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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    FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile Headline Analysis Quarterly Earnings Are Highest in Almost Three Years

    Reduced Loan-Loss Provisions Boost Net Income There is still a huge gap betweenNoncurrent Loans and Loan-Loss Reserves, but the coverage ratio has stabilized. The policy oextend and pretend with regard to bad loans will com back and haunt community and regionabanks in the quarters ahead.

    Noncurrent Loans Post First Decline in More than Four Years This is a result of theextend and pretend policy that keeps many bad loans current.

    The Number of FDIC-Insured Problem Banks Institutions increased to 829 from 775 andwith the number of institutions declined to 7,830, which means that the percentage of ProblemBanks rose to 10.6% from 9.8%.

    Bank Lending to Small Businesses Small businesses do not see an economic opportunity to expand given the unknowns of

    healthcare costs and tax policy. Banks do not want the risk of extending new business loans given the same economic

    uncertainties. Banks are shunning deposits based upon the ridiculously low rates being offered for money

    market funds, bank CDs and passbook savings accounts.

    Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

    Richard SuttmeierChief Market StrategistValuEngine.com

    (800) 381-5576

    Send your comments and questions to [email protected]. For more information on our productsand services visit www.ValuEngine.com

    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.comI have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters awell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the

    ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go HERE to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

    I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.