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Home sales are up 9.2% to 4.65 million in 2012 from 4.26 million in 2011. Annual sales levels are now close to 2007 levels. Source: NAR Home Sales 3 ‘89 ‘90 ‘91 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 4.7 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.4 4.9 5.7 6.2 6.0 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.9 3.0 Total Annual Single Family Home Sales (in Millions)

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Page 1: Home Sales - Keller Williams Realtyimages.kw.com/.../366951/1362755135735_Why_you_shouldn_t_wait… · After a sharp decline, new home building is picking back up as inventory falls

Home sales are up 9.2% to 4.65 million in 2012 from 4.26 million in 2011. Annual sales levels are now close to 2007 levels.

Source: NAR

Home Sales

3

‘89 ‘90 ‘91 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12

4.74.34.34.64.4

4.9

5.76.26.0

5.45.04.74.64.74.5

4.03.83.53.53.43.22.92.93.0

Total Annual Single Family Home Sales (in Millions)

Page 2: Home Sales - Keller Williams Realtyimages.kw.com/.../366951/1362755135735_Why_you_shouldn_t_wait… · After a sharp decline, new home building is picking back up as inventory falls

The year ended on a strong note with a 12.8% increase in the monthly annual pace of sales from December 2011 to 2012.

Source: NAR

Home Sales MONTHLY ANNUAL PACE OF SALES (Seasonally Adj.)

4

Dec '11 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec '12

4.38

4.63 4.60

4.47

4.62 4.62

4.374.47

4.83

4.694.76

4.994.94

12.8% Increase Total Annual Home Sales (in Millions)

Page 3: Home Sales - Keller Williams Realtyimages.kw.com/.../366951/1362755135735_Why_you_shouldn_t_wait… · After a sharp decline, new home building is picking back up as inventory falls

Median home prices are up 6.3% to $176,600. If prices followed a 4% appreciation rate each year, the median price would be $231,683. This implies prices may still be 23.8% undervalued, based on the trend line.

Source: NAR

‘89 ‘90 ‘91 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12

Home Price

5

$231$222

$177$166

$179$198

$95

Long-Term Average = 4% Annual Median Home Price (in Thousands)

Page 4: Home Sales - Keller Williams Realtyimages.kw.com/.../366951/1362755135735_Why_you_shouldn_t_wait… · After a sharp decline, new home building is picking back up as inventory falls

‘89 ‘90 ‘91 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12

6.3%

-2.7%

0.6%

-12.5%-9.8%

-1.8%

1.3%

12.2%

8.3%7.5%7.0%6.3%4.3%3.8%

5.4%5.2%4.8%3.1%4.0%3.4%2.7%

5.5%2.9%

5.9%

Home price appreciation is back in positive territory and growing strong, thanks in part to less distressed sales and tightening inventory.

Source: NAR

Annual Appreciation

7

1989-2000 3.39%

2001-2005 8.9%

2006-2011 - 4.6%

Annual Median Home Price Appreciation

Page 5: Home Sales - Keller Williams Realtyimages.kw.com/.../366951/1362755135735_Why_you_shouldn_t_wait… · After a sharp decline, new home building is picking back up as inventory falls

In December, the median home price was up 11.5% compared to the same month a year earlier. Prices reached a high of $188,800 during June, the highest monthly level since September 2008. The last time there were 10 consecutive monthly increases was August 2005-May 2006.

Source: NAR

Home Price MONTHLY

8

Dec '11 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec '12

$162.2

$154.6 $155.6

$164.8

$173.7$180.3

$188.8 $187.8 $184.9$178.3 $176.9 $179.4 $180.8

11.5% Increase Monthly Median Home Price (in Thousands)

Page 6: Home Sales - Keller Williams Realtyimages.kw.com/.../366951/1362755135735_Why_you_shouldn_t_wait… · After a sharp decline, new home building is picking back up as inventory falls

‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12

4.8 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.3 4.5

6.5

8.910.4

8.8 9.48.3

5.9

Annual average inventory declined 28% and is back to balanced levels for the whole of 2012. While local markets may vary considerably, year-end monthly numbers show the United States is clearly in a seller’s market.

Source: NAR

Months Supply of Inventory

9

Buye

r’s M

ktSe

ller’s

Mkt

Balanced = 6 months

Balanced = 6 months Annual Months of Inventory

Page 7: Home Sales - Keller Williams Realtyimages.kw.com/.../366951/1362755135735_Why_you_shouldn_t_wait… · After a sharp decline, new home building is picking back up as inventory falls

31% Decline Months Supply of Inventory Balanced = 6 months

When looking at the monthly inventory levels, December 2011 to December 2012 months supply of inventory is down 31%. The last quarter of the year illustrates a clear move into a seller’s market.

Source: NAR

Months Supply of Inventory MONTHLY

10

Dec '11 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec '12

6.4 6.0 6.3 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.3 4.8 4.4

Buye

r’s M

ktSe

ller’s

Mkt

Page 8: Home Sales - Keller Williams Realtyimages.kw.com/.../366951/1362755135735_Why_you_shouldn_t_wait… · After a sharp decline, new home building is picking back up as inventory falls

After a sharp decline, new home building is picking back up as inventory falls.

Source: BEA

Residential Building Permits

12

Mar 2009All-time low

513

Sep 2005Hit a high of 2,263

Sep 1972All-time high of

2,419

Sep 1975Fell to 719

Steeper decline than 2005-2009higher interest rates and oil prices

Existing home inventoryResidential

building permitsin thousands

Jan 19601,092 Nov 2012

900

Jan 1991786

Residential Building Permits (in Thousands) Months Supply (in Months)

Page 9: Home Sales - Keller Williams Realtyimages.kw.com/.../366951/1362755135735_Why_you_shouldn_t_wait… · After a sharp decline, new home building is picking back up as inventory falls

1972 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

3.74.54.75.0

6.06.36.45.95.85.8

6.57.0

8.17.4

6.97.67.87.9

8.47.3

8.49.3

10.110.310.310.210.2

12.4

13.913.2

16.016.6

13.7

11.2

9.68.98.99.19.2

8.07.4

Mortgage rates hit a record low for the year of 2012 at 3.66%. The Federal Reserve has kept Treasury rates low and the spread, or difference, between the two has tightened since 2008.

Source: Freddie Mac

Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed

13

Annual Mortgage Rate (%)

Page 10: Home Sales - Keller Williams Realtyimages.kw.com/.../366951/1362755135735_Why_you_shouldn_t_wait… · After a sharp decline, new home building is picking back up as inventory falls

The year ended on a record-breaking low. In November 2012, monthly interest rates hit an all-time low of 3.35% and stayed through the end of the year. Rates are down 2.8 percentage points and have declined 45% since January 2006.

Source: Freddie Mac

Mortgage Rates MONTHLY 2006-2012

14

Jan '06 Jan '07 Jan '08 Jan '09 Jan '10 Jan '11 Jan '12 Dec '12

Monthly Mortgage Rate

6.15%

3.35%

4.81%

6.76%

Page 11: Home Sales - Keller Williams Realtyimages.kw.com/.../366951/1362755135735_Why_you_shouldn_t_wait… · After a sharp decline, new home building is picking back up as inventory falls

It takes a smaller slice of the typical family’s income to pay the mortgage on a median-priced home.

Source: NAR

Affordability

15

PERCENTAGE OF THE MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME REQUIRED FOR MEDIAN PRICE HOME PAYMENT

87.1%

12.9%

Everything ElsePrincipal and Interest Payment

78.4%

21.6%

Historically: 2012: