homepage | unece - german scenario case studies on changing … · 2019. 2. 20. · the global...

14.02.2019Slide 1 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland

German scenario case studies

Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland

Thünen Institute of International Forestry and Forest Economics

Koli/FI,14.02.2019

German scenario case studies onchanging wood supply and bio-economy pathways

DIABOLO Project final conference and UNECE/FAO Forest Sector Outlook Day: “Exchange and Experiences in Forest Sector Outlook Studies and Related Work”



WEHAM-Scenarios(finished)

• Background & Objectives– Forest development and timber supply scenarios based on NFI (timeframe -> 2052)– Stakeholder evaluation of alternative raw material supply and wood markets

developments – Market Modelling: How might the German forest-based sector respond to changing

timber supply potentials?

Changing wood supply and bio-economy pathwaysTwo scenario case studies in national projects in Germany

www.weham-szenarien.de

BEPASO(ongoing)

• Background & Objectives– Bioeconomy pathways and social acceptance (timeframe -> 2050)– Possible (economic) impacts from future bio-economy developments obtained from

broad stakeholder participation (experts, society, scientists)– Market Modelling: How might supply and demand structures of traditional and

emerging wood products change in face of growing competition for raw materials?



The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM)Basic structure

• 180 countries, 14 products

• Input data:- production, trade, values

- forest area, growing stock

- GDP, population

• Output: Production, trade,

consumption, prices, forest

development

• Objective function: Maximizing the total welfare in the forest sector

Fig.: Product structure GFPM according to Buongiorno et al. 2003, own illustration

RoundwoodIndustrial

Roundwood

Fuelwood

Other Industrial

Roundwood

Sawnwood

Particle Board

Veneer & Plywood

Fibre Board

Mechanical Pulp

Chemical Pulp

Other Fibre Pulp

Waste Paper

Newsprint

Printing and Writing

Paper

Other Paper and

Paperboard

Other Industrial

Roundwood

Fuelwood



Wood demand scenarios

Case Study 1: WEHAM-Scenarios Application of GFPM

Timber harvesting

potential (C/NC)

Fuel-

wood

WEHAM

C/NC Industrial

Roundwood

GFPM

Fuelwood

Sawnwood (C/NC)

Veneer/Plywood

Particle/Fibre Board

Chem./Mech. Pup

Paper & Paperboard

Input

Roundwood „removed“

Fuelwood C/NC

→WEHAM-Output serves as a upper bound→ Fuelwood demand is to meet



Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosBasic structure: modified GFPM -> C/NC


• C/NC industrial roundwood + C/NC sawnwood

• Re-programming the model calibration for input data

• Re-estimation of supply, demand and import/export elasticities

Fig.: Product structure GFPMcncaccording to Schier et al. 2018, own illustration

Roundwood

Coniferous Ind.

Roundwood

Fuelwood

Other Industrial

Roundwood

Non-Coniferous Ind.

Roundwood

Non-Coniferous

Sawnwood

Coniferous Sawnwood

Particle Board

Veneer & Plywood

Fibre Board

Other Industrial

Roundwood

Fuelwood

Mechanical Pulp

Chemical Pulp

Other Fibre Pulp

Waste Paper

Newsprint

Printing and Writing

Paper

Other Paper and

Paperboard



Potential fellings of coniferous roundwood (mill. m3/year)

0200040006000800010000120001400016000

20

15

20

25

20

35

20

45

BAS

HPS

NPS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Blue -> BAS-REF ScenarioLimited production of Conif. roundwood, increasing prod. of Non-Conif. roundwood

Red -> HPS-FÖR ScenarioIncreasing production of C and NC roundwood

Green -> NPS-RES ScenarioNature oriented forest conversion implies more production of Conif. RW, but limited NC Roundwood

Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application (Step 0: WEHAM)



0200040006000800010000120001400016000

20

15

20

25

20

35

20

45

BAS

HPS

NPS

05

101520253035404550

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Stoffl. Prod Energ. Prod Totholzlieferung

05

101520253035404550


05

101520253035404550

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application (Step 1: Dead wood)




Mill m

3

Potential fellings of coniferous roundwood (mill. m3/year)minus quantities necessary for scenarios dead wood supply



0200040006000800010000120001400016000

20

15

20

25

20

35

20

45

BAS

HPS

NPS

05

101520253035404550

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


05

101520253035404550


05

101520253035404550

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application (Step 2: Fuel wood)




Mill m

3

Potential fellings of coniferous roundwood (mill. m3/year)minus quantities necessary for scenarios dead wood supplyminus quantities necessary for scenarios fuel wood demand



0200040006000800010000120001400016000

20

15

20

25

20

35

20

45

BAS

HPS

NPS

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application (Step 0: WEHAM)




Mill m

3

Potential fellings of non-coniferous roundwood (mill. m3/year)



0200040006000800010000120001400016000

20

15

20

25

20

35

20

45

BAS

HPS

NPS

05

101520253035404550

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


05

101520253035404550


05

101520253035404550

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application (Step 1: Dead wood)




Mill m

3

Potential fellings of non-coniferous roundwood (mill. m3/year)minus quantities necessary for scenarios dead wood supply



0200040006000800010000120001400016000

20

15

20

25

20

35

20

45

BAS

HPS

NPS

05

101520253035404550


05

101520253035404550

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


05

101520253035404550

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application (Step 2: Fuel wood)




Mill m

3

Potential fellings of non-coniferous roundwood (mill. m3/year)minus quantities necessary for scenarios dead wood supplyminus quantities necessary for scenarios fuel wood demand



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Max. potential of coniferous roundwood

Max. potential of non-conif. roundwood

Mill m

3M

ill m

3

Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application: Max. potential for GFPM






010203040506070

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

Produktion historisch BAS-REF Potential BAS-REF Produktion

HPS-FÖR Potential HPS-FÖR Produktion NPS-RES Potential

NPS-RES Produktion

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Mio

m3


Potential fellings of coniferous roundwood

Calculated potential of coniferous roundwood as upper bound for domestic annual production

-> How does this interact with market demand for material use?



010203040506070

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50



NPS-RES Produktion

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Mio

m3

Unused potential defined as“standing storage”




Production of coniferous roundwood estimated as modelling results




“Standing storage”: Unused potential of previous years increases potential of following years

Production of coniferous roundwood estimated as modelling results

010203040506070

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50



NPS-RES Produktion

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Mio

m3





05

101520253035

200520072009201120132015202520352045

Produktion historisch BAS-REFVerwendung BAS-REF Produktion HPS-FÖR Verwendung

HPS-FÖR Produktion NPS-RES Verwendung NPS-RES Produktion

0

20

40

60

80

100

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

Mill

m3

0

20

40

60

80

100

Mill

m3

0

20

40

60

80

100

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

Mill

m3

Production of industry develops positively

in two scenarios.

Nature oriented scenario (below): reduced

domestic supply leads to decrease of

industry production ad consumption.

Note: Exogenous scenario settings for fuel

wood consumption and dead wood supply

lead to reduced potential!

Demand of domestic industry is also

supplied by rising imports.

Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application: Results (example)

Production and consumption of coniferous roundwood



WEHAM-Scenarios(finished)

• Background & Objectives– Forest development and timber supply scenarios based on NFI (timeframe -> 2052)– Stakeholder evaluation of alternative raw material supply and wood markets

developments – Market Modelling: How might the German forest-based sector respond to changing

timber supply potentials?

Changing wood supply and bio-economy pathwaysTwo scenario case studies in national projects in Germany

www.weham-szenarien.de

BEPASO(ongoing)

• Background & Objectives– Bioeconomy pathways and social acceptance (timeframe -> 2050)– Possible (economic) impacts from future bio-economy developments obtained from

broad stakeholder participation (experts, society, scientists)– Market Modelling: How might supply and demand structures of traditional and

emerging wood products change in face of growing competition for raw materials?



Case Study 2: BEPASOProject structure

STATUS QUO

Bio-Economy

Scenario

development

Model-based

impact

assessment

Stakeholder

dialog

Synthesis and

advice

Bioeconomy pathways and social acceptance(focus on Germany, forestry & agriculture)

Project goal (for forestsector modelling):Including „new values from wood“ into traditional wood products market modelling to adapt wood products market analysis and scenario assessments

-> What does that mean?



Case Study 2: BEPASO

Modified product structure

RoundwoodConiferous Ind

Roundwood

Fuelwood

Other Ind

Roundwood

Non- Coniferous

Ind Roundwood

Non- Coniferous

Sawnwood

Coniferous

Sawnwood

Particle Board

Veneer & Plywood

Fibre Board

Other Industrial

Roundwood

Fuelwood

Mechanical Pulp

Chemical Pulp

Other Fibre Pulp

Waste Paper

Newsprint

Printing and

Writing Paper

Other Paper and

Paperboard

Dissolving Pulp

e.g. Cellulose

Fibers

e.g. Cellulose

Detrivatives

• “New” values from wood:- Dissolving Pulp as

intermediate product- Cellulose-based chemical

derivatives & cellulose-based fibres as end products


• Re-programming the model calibration for input data

• Estimate market elasticities for GDP and price

• Precondition to model impacts of bio-economy scenarios



→ Global production increases about 10 million tons in 25 years.

→ Production increases mostly in Asia, only slight increases in Europe.However, that seems to low as plans for capacity development in Europe (Scandinavia + AT) are actually at least at about 0.5 mill tons until 2020.

0

4500000

9000000

13500000

18000000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ton

s

Production of Dissl. Plp in EU - Asia - World

FAO Historic GFPM World FAO Historic

GFPM Asia FAO Historisch GFPM Europe

Case Study 2: BEPASO

First test simulation results with dissolving pulp



• Split of roundwood and sawnwood into C/NC is necessary for specific national analyses with GFPM (in Germany)

• Global model is used in order to show reactions with international markets

• Estimation of elasticities necessary when including new products

• Applications for specific national analyses were successful and showed (besides scenario settings) also interaction with international markets

• Further modifications of the model are possible but depend on scenario description. In future, focus will be also on European and/or global analyses

Summary and Conclusion



Thünen Institute of International Forestry and Forest EconomicsLeuschnerstr. 9121031 Hamburg, GermanyWeb: www.thuenen.de

The Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries – Thünen Institute in brief –consists of 14 specialized institutes that carry out research and provide policy advice in the fields of economy, ecology and technology.

Thank you for your attention!

Dr. Holger WeimarTel: +49 (0)40 73962-314Mail: [email protected]

Koli/FI,14.02.2019



Annex

Sources:

Buongiorno J, Zhu S, Zhang D, Turner JA, Tomberlin D (2003): The global Forest Products Model. Structure, Estimation, and Applications. Acad. Press, Amsterdam [u.a.]

FAOSTAT (2016): FAO statistics division. www.faost at3.fao.org.

Mantau U, Döring P, Glasenapp S, Blanke C (2017): Szenarien der stofflichen und energetischen Holzver-wendung, AFZ-DerWald 13/2017

Morland C, Schier F, Janzen N, Weimar H (2018): Supply and demand functions for global wood markets: Specification and plausibility testing of econometric models within the global forest sector. Forest Pol Econ 92:92-105

Oehmichen k, Röhling S, Dunger K, Gerber K, Klatt S (2017): Ergebnisse und Bewertung der alternativen WEHAM-Szenarien, AFZ-DerWald 13/2017

Schier F, Morland C, Janzen N, Weimar H (2018) Impacts of changing coniferous and non-coniferous wood supplyon forest product markets: a German scenario case study. Eur J Forest Res 137(3):279-300

Schier F, Weimar H (2018): Holzmarktmodellierung - Szenarienbasierte Folgenabschätzung verschiedener Rohholzangebotssituationen für den Sektor Forst und Holz. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 57 p, Thünen Working Paper 91

Thünen-Institut (2014): Dritte Bundeswaldinventur (BWI) 2012 - Ergebnisdatenbank, https://bwi.info

Thünen-Institut (2016): Waldentwicklungs- und Holzaufkommensmodellierung (WEHAM) 2012 -Ergebnisdatenbank, https://bwi.info

UNComtrade, United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database: (http://comtrade.un.org).

homepage | unece - german scenario case studies on changing … · 2019. 2. 20. · the global...

Documents