horizonwatching: how ibm develops views of the potential futures

© 2011 IBM Corporation

HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures

Bill Chamberlin – Principal Analyst, IBM Market Insights

17 Aug 2011


IBM Market Insights

2 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures

How does a company survive 100 years?


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How does a company survive 200 years?


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Table of Contents

How IBM Develops a View of the Future: Eight IBM Foresight Initiatives

How I, as a Market Insights Professional, Develop a View of the Future


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IBM has a diverse, evolving, set of internal foresight capabilities focused on technology, society and business

Eight IBM Foresight Initiatives

1. Global Technology Outlook

2. Academy of Technology

3. First of a Kind (FOAK)

4. Global Innovation Outlook

5. InnovationJam

6. Institute for Business Value

7. Market Development & Insights

8. HorizonWatch Community

Global

Technology

Outlook

(GTO)

Global

Innovation

Outlook

(GIO)

Academy of

Technology

(AoT)

First

of a Kind

(FOAK)

InnovationJam

Institute for

Business

Value

(IBV)

Market Development &

Insights

(MDI)

Community: Horizonwatch


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The Global Technology Outlook is developed annually by IBM Research, which has 11 labs located in 9 countries

China

WatsonAlmaden

Austin

TokyoHaifa

Zurich

India

IBM Research Lab

5 Nobel Laureates

14 National Medals

6 Turing Awards

80 Members of National Academies

11 Inductees, National Inventors Hall of Fame

Rio

Dublin

Melbourne


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The Global Technology Outlook team solicits input from the wide diversity of disciplines at IBM Research

ChemistryComputer Science Engineering

Materials Science

Mathematical Sciences

Physics

Behavioral Sciences

Service Science, Management &

Engineering

BusinessInnovation

TechnologyInnovation

Social Innovation

Demand Innovation

Science & Engineering

Business & Management

Social & Cognitive Sciences

Economics & Markets

Improved human computer interaction

sub-micron lithography

Deep QA for Natural Language Processing (Watson)

Nano-science and Nano-technology

Organic Semiconductors Improve services-led economy

protein foldingTrackpoint for Thinkpad, Risk Management

http://www.research.ibm.com/areas.shtml

http://www.research.ibm.com/areas.shtml


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IBM Research’s annual Global Technology Outlook identifies disruptive societal, technical and economic trends that might impact IBM and its clients

Objective The GTO identifies significant technology trends early.

It looks for high impact disruptive technologies leading to game changing products and services over a 3-10 year horizon

– Disruptive technologies, potential new technologies, game changers– Identify trends - - exponentials, thresholds, discontinuities, walls– New technologies, new markets

The GTO is used to drive technical initiatives in IBM Research and to jointly engage with IBM in formulating these initiatives

About The Process It’s a process that takes the whole year and involves getting input from all IBM

Industry and Business Unit Strategists, IBM Research employees, University researchers, partners, and suppliers

Global

Technology

Outlook

(GTO)


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2011 GTO Topics – What does IBM Research think is going to be important in the future?

1Socially Synergistic Enterprise Solutions Aggregating, correlating and analyzing data generated from physical devices, structured information, and social networks

2Petascale Analytics Appliance and Ecosystem Big Analytics is needed to rapidly extract business value from huge volumes of Big Data

3Natural Resources Transformation & Management To meet rising global natural resource needs, companies will need to use IT to improve asset utilization, production and operational efficiency

4Internet of Things Managing the large amounts of new, interconnected devices that will help monitor the physical world and manage business processes

5 Frontiers of IT Moving from computing systems as “calculators” to “learning systems”

http://www-05.ibm.com/ch/ibm_sap_portfolio/pdf/Global_Technology_Outlook_2011.pdf

http://www-05.ibm.com/ch/ibm_sap_portfolio/pdf/Global_Technology_Outlook_2011.pdf


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A side benefit of the GTO process is the “5 in 5” series of foresight predictions published every year

http://youtu.be/2m7ticc7jnEhttp://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/33304.wss

http://youtu.be/2m7ticc7jnE

http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/33304.wss

http://youtu.be/2m7ticc7jnE


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Global

Innovation

Outlook

(GIO)

Topics Water Security & Society

Africa Media and Content Energy & Environment

Transportation Future of the Enterprise Gaming & Leadership

The Inventor’s Forum A New IP Marketplace Government

Business of Work & Life Healthcare

Focused on broad and challenging topics – spanning geographies, generations, industries and interests

Ran from 2004-09, picked 2-3 topics per year

Surfaced insights and opportunities for business and societal innovation

Open, collaborative, multi-disciplinary process with external business leaders, academics, researchers and policymakers

Helped to launch IBM spin-off projects

The Global Innovation Outlook focused more on broad issues impacting all types of organizations

http://www.ibm.com/ibm/gio/us/en/index.html

http://www.ibm.com/ibm/gio/us/en/index.html


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The IBM Academy of Technology is a society of IBM technical leaders across all IBM Business UnitsAcademy Mission

– Advance the understanding of key emerging technical areas, – Improve development of IBM's global technical community, – Engage clients in technical pursuits of mutual value.

Sets the Technical Agenda via ‘Activities’– Anyone in IBM’s technical community can start an Academy activity– Currently, many activities are in areas such as:

• Smarter Planet• Cloud Computing• Business Analytics and Optimization

What makes a good Academy activity?– Stimulate, organize, synthesize and advance technical dialogue and

innovation across business lines– Understand the gaps and address the opportunities for innovation

that occur at the intersections of units and technical disciplines,

Academy of

Technology

(AoT)

http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/academy/index.html

http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/academy/index.html


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The First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) Program encourages collaboration of early adopter clients with IBM Research and Sales Pushes early thought leadership and experiences with

new technologies

Pilot experimental solutions & deliver working prototypes– Validate market requirements – Test market readiness

250+ projects completed

Recognized industry best practice– Frost & Sullivan Certified Best Practice– Innovation Passport: The IBM First-of-a-Kind Journey From

Research to Reality

First

of a Kind

(FOAK)

FOAK accelerates the delivery of innovation from the research labs into the market

http://www.research.ibm.com/FOAK/index.shtml

http://www.research.ibm.com/FOAK/index.shtml


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Online collaborative discussions for focused audiences ranging in size from a few hundred to hundreds of thousands

Innovation events over a defined period of time to capture the pulse of the group or to solicit specific ideas to critical business or societal issues

Jam Hosts and facilitators guide participants to build on each other’s ideas – supporting a meaningful exchange of perspectives by a focused audience around a shared topic

Real-time text analysis and data mining to highlight emerging trends and distill actionable results

InnovationJam

InnovationJam: IBM’s online approach to large-scale collaborative brainstorming

https://www.collaborationjam.com/


https://www.collaborationjam.com/


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The World Urban Forum (WUF) was established by the United Nations to examine rapid urbanization and its impact on cities, economies and policies

HabitatJam was the largest brainstorming event on urban sustainability bringing together not only NGOs, politicians and academia – but the slum dwellers whose lives were directly impacted by this body

Results: Over 30,000 participants from 158 countries generated 600+ ideas. 70 of these were presented and adopted at the WUF3 conference as its official platform

InnovationJam Example: Habitat Jam

"At the heart of the urban crisis is a failure to allow the full participation of ordinary people in the development of the city. It is my hope that innovative technologies associated with Habitat Jam will help bring people closer together to plan and develop truly human settlements.“ Mrs. Anna Tibaijuka, former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of UN-HABITAT

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habitat_Jam

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habitat_Jam


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Sector / Industry Teams

Communications Energy & Utility Media & Entertainment Telecommunications

Distribution CPG Life Sciences/Pharma Retail Travel & Transportation

Public Defense Government Healthcare

Financial Services Banking Financial Markets Insurance

Industrial Aerospace Automotive Chemical & Petroleum Electronics Industrial Products

Customer Relationship Management

Human Capital Management

Supply Chain Management

Financial Management

Strategy & Change

Business Function Teams

Application Innovation

The IBM Institute for Business Value is global team of 50+ consultants who conduct research and analysis across multiple industries and functional disciplines

Institute for Business Value

Institute for

Business

Value

(IBV)

http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/thoughtleadership/

http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/thoughtleadership/


IBM Market Insights


Examples of Thought Leadership Studies

Example reports include the CEO Study, CHRO Study, CFO Study, and

CIO Study

“Future Agendas” CXO Surveys

3 to 10 year industry and/or functional area

outlook with action oriented next steps

IBV’s thought leadership provides an original, research-based point of view told from a client’s business perspective

Institute for Business Value

Institute for

Business

Value

(IBV)


IBM Market Insights


The IBM MI Strategic Perspectives Team provides the initial foresight and insight for new and emerging market opportunities and competitive threats.

This includes providing a Market Insights perspective – Market Definition

– Potential Opportunity

– Drivers/Inhibitors

– Potential Segmentation

– Geographical Differences

– Competitive Intelligence

IBM Market Insight’s Strategic Perspectives Team accelerates the understanding of new or emerging markets, and act as a catalyst for future growth.

• Future of Nuclear Energy ● Next Emerging Geographic Markets ● Consumer Product Goods in Rural China ● Climate Change/Energy & Environment ● Physical Infrastructure in Growth Markets ● Advanced Water Management ● Intelligent Buildings ● Smarter Cities ● 2015 Growth Strategy

• Future of Nuclear Energy ● Next Emerging Geographic Markets ● Consumer Product Goods in Rural China ● Climate Change/Energy & Environment ● Physical Infrastructure in Growth Markets ● Advanced Water Management ● Intelligent Buildings ● Smarter Cities ● 2015 Growth Strategy

Market Development

& Insights

(MDI)

Example Reports


IBM Market Insights


Market Insight’s Center for Applied Insights White Paper: “100 years of foresight: The importance of long-term thinking at IBM”

http://bit.ly/kdPG80

Market Development

& Insights

(MDI)

Authors:

• David Jarvis, Senior Consultant, IBM Center for Applied Insights

• Steve Rogers, Director, IBM Center for Applied Insight

“The practice of corporate foresight helps the enterprise avoid strategic surprise and

reduce uncertainty in decision making. It allows the enterprise to think through the consequences of unanticipated change, envisioning

what might be possible and deciding what would be

preferable.”

http://bit.ly/kdPG80


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Demographics– This is a cross-IBM community of 1900+

IBMers from all types of functions, divisions and geographies.

Focus– Emerging trends and technologies

Conference calls– Topics are presented to the community by

subject matter experts

Collaboration platforms– Blog– Discussion forums– Bookmarks– File sharing– Wikis

The HorizonWatch Community was formed in 2001 to bring together all IBMers interested in understanding the future(s).


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HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures21

Community Objective:

Improve our collective ability to sense future disruptive technologies, business issues, trends and opportunities.

Benefit of the Community:

Diversity of the community means different perspectives, which enhances collaboration and sparks innovation.


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HorizonWatch: 150 Conference Calls Since 2001


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Every year, an annual trends document is produced and presented to the community.

23

2011 Trends

1. Private Clouds

2. Virtualization

3. Social Business

4. Mobile Computing

5. Storage Trends

6. Advanced Business Analytics

7. The Personalized Web

8. Video-enabled Business Processes

9. Service Oriented Architecture

10. Sustainability & IT

11. Risk Management

Source: Bill Chamberlin, IBM Market Insights via HorizonWatching


http://horizonwatching.typepad.com/horizonwatching/2010/11/top-ten-digital-marketing-trends-for-2011.html


IBM Market Insights


Other trend reports are produced and presented to the community.

24

Top Trends in Digital Marketing For 20111.Marketing Budgets Continue to Shift Towards Online

2.Social Media Marketing Is Maturing (Slowly)

3.Mobile Marketing Poised To Take Off

4.Personalized Marketing: Customize To Each Individual

5.Social Video As A Marketing Tool Gains Momentum

6.Search Engine Optimization Gets More Complex

7.Marketing Analytics Helps Make Sense Of All The Noise

8.Real Time Web Assistance Connects Buyer With Expert

9.Online Privacy Concerns Continue

10.Digital Marketing Optimization Emerges As A Priority

Source: Bill Chamberlin, IBM Market Insights via HorizonWatching

Blog Post: Top Ten Digital Marketing Trends For 2011 http://bit.ly/aHOY3P

Slide Deck: Top Ten Digital Marketing Trends For 2011 http://slidesha.re/fYUCgp

http://horizonwatching.typepad.com/horizonwatching/2010/11/top-ten-digital-marketing-trends-for-2011.html

http://bit.ly/aHOY3P+

http://slidesha.re/fYUCgp


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As A Market Insights Analyst, How Do I Approach Trends

Research?


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In additional to traditional trend spotting, I leverage social media and communities….

Scanning: Search to understand what people are talking about.

Brainstorming: Two is better than one. Hundreds are better than two.

Thousands are better than hundreds.

Publishing: Posting content online helps establish my reach and authority

Idea Development: Get feedback and improve my research

Networking: Connect with other subject matter experts.

Learning: Develop a better understanding of the potential future(s)


IBM Market Insights


1. A Primer on Smarter Water

2. A Primer On Cloud Computing

3. A Primer on Nanotechnology

4. A Primer on Telepresence

5. A Primer on Unified Communications

6. A Primer on Futurists

7. A Primer on 3D Printing

8. A Primer on Scenario Planning

9. A Primer on the Website Personalization Trend

10. A Primer on the Consumer Market for Household Robots

11. A Primer on the Trend Towards Video-enabled Business Processes

12. A Primer on the Smart Grid and Intelligent Utility Network Trend

13. A Primer On Water Management Issues

14. A Primer on Advanced Business Analytics

Sharing thought leadership content via a blog helps me develop my understanding of key trends and get feedback from readers

http://horizonwatching.typepad.com/horizonwatching/2009/05/a-primer-on-smarter-water.html

http://horizonwatching.typepad.com/.services/blog/6a00d8347162c969e200d83471df2569e2/search?filter.q=primer

http://horizonwatching.typepad.com/horizonwatching/2009/04/a-primer-on-nanotechnology.html

http://horizonwatching.typepad.com/horizonwatching/2009/04/a-primer-on-telepresence.html

http://horizonwatching.typepad.com/horizonwatching/2009/04/a-primer-on-telepresence.html

http://horizonwatching.typepad.com/horizonwatching/2009/04/primer-on-unified-communications.html

http://horizonwatching.typepad.com/horizonwatching/2009/06/a-primer-on-futurists.html

http://horizonwatching.typepad.com/horizonwatching/2011/08/a-primer-on-3-d-printing-an-emerging-technology-you-should-know-about.html

http://horizonwatching.typepad.com/.services/blog/6a00d8347162c969e200d83471df2569e2/search/page/2/?filter.q=primer

http://horizonwatching.typepad.com/horizonwatching/2011/03/a-primer-on-the-website-personalization-trend.html


http://horizonwatching.typepad.com/horizonwatching/2011/03/a-primer-on-the-trend-towards-video-enabled-business-processes.html


http://horizonwatching.typepad.com/.services/blog/6a00d8347162c969e200d83471df2569e2/search/page/2/?filter.q=primer

http://horizonwatching.typepad.com/horizonwatching/2011/03/a-primer-on-advanced-business-analytics.html


IBM Market Insights


Collaborate with me…I can be found at the following social sites…

28

LinkedIn = Bill Chamberlin Thought Leadership Blog = Horizonwatching on

Typepad Signal/Scanning Blog = HorizonWatching on Tumblr Twitter ID = Horizonwatching Facebook = HorizonWatching Online Newsletter = HorizonWatching Slideshare IBM Expert Network = HorizonWatching Google+ = Bill Chamberlin LinkedIn Group = Horizonwatching A Smarter Planet = Blog on Tumblr The InfoBoom Community = Profile Page

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http://www.linkedin.com/in/whchamb

http://www.horizonwatching.typepad.com/

http://horizonwatching.tumblr.com/

http://twitter.com/horizonwatching

http://www.facebook.com/pages/HorizonWatching/171883855681

http://paper.li/horizonwatching

http://www.slideshare.net/HorizonWatching

https://plus.google.com/112667534860107996786

http://www.linkedin.com/groups?about=&gid=1817327&trk=anet_ug_grppro

http://smarterplanet.tumblr.com/

http://smarterplanet.tumblr.com/

http://www.theinfoboom.com/profile/Horizonwatching/


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Thank You