hoschek - heptagonal – introduction to a seven seas doctrine - years 2030

Security DimensionsInternational & National Studies

From Personal to Global Security

SD

Edited byPiotr Bogdalski

Kuba JałoszyńskiJuliusz Piwowarski

Scientific JournalNo. 19 (3/2016)

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Police lt-col. (ret.) Prof. Kuba Jałoszyński, Ph.d. (Poland)assoc. Prof. Juliusz Piwowarski, Ph.d. (Poland)

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Prof. Carlos Eduardo Pacheco aMaral universidade dos acores (italy)ltCol assoc. Prof. Nevena ataNasoVa- -KrastEVa, Ph.d.Vasil levski National Military university (Bulgaria)Prof. Vania Banabakova, Ph.d.Vasil levski National Military university (Bulgaria)Prof. Eliseo BErtolasi, Ph.d. l’istituto di alti studi in geopolitica e scienze ausiliarie (italy)Prof. Wojciech CYNarsKi, Ph.d. uniwersytet rzeszowski w rzeszowie (Poland)andrzej CzoP, Ph.d. Wyższa szkoła Bezpieczeństwa Publicznego i indywidualnego „apeiron”w Krakowie (Poland)Prof. stanislav dadElo, Ph.d. Vilnus gediminas technical university (lithuania)Jerzy dEPo, Ph.d. Krakowska akademia im. andrzeja Frycza Modrzewskiego (Poland)assoc. Prof. Jacek dWorzECKi, Ph.d.Wyższa szkoła Policji w szczytnie (Poland)adam goŁuCh, Ph.d. górnośląska Wyższa szkoła handlowa im. W. Korfantego w Katowicach (Poland)Judr. Wojciech M. hrYNiCKi, Ph.d. Wyższa szkoła Bezpieczeństwa Publicznego i indywidualnego „apeiron” w Krakowie (Poland)Prof. Kuba JaŁoszYńsKi, Ph.d. Wyższa szkoła Policji w szczytnie (Poland)assoc. Prof. Krzysztof KagaNEK, Ph.d. akademia Wychowania Fizycznego w Krakowie (Poland)doc. Judr. Štefan KočaN, Ph.d. akadémia Policajného zboru v Bratislave (slovakia)

doc. ing. Jozef MartiNKa, Ph.d. slovak university of technology in Bratislava (slovakia)Krzysztof MiChalsKi, Ph.d. Politechnika rzeszowska w rzeszowie (Poland)Prof. ing. Jana MüllEroVá, Ph.d. Žilinská univerzita v Žiline (slovakia)prof. andrzej MisiuK, Ph.d.university of Warsaw (Poland)Prof. Jerzy oChMaNN, Ph.d. Polska akademia umiejętności (Poland) assoc. Prof. antoni olaK, Ph.d.university College of Enterprise and administration in lublin (Poland)Bogusław PŁoNKa, Ph.d. Wyższa szkoła Bezpieczeństwa Publicznego i indywidualnego „apeiron”w Krakowie (Poland) Prof. Francesco sidoti, Ph.d.l’uuniversita` dell’aquila (italy)Prof. sergii Viktotovych sliNKo lviv university of Bussines and law (ukraine)Prof. lyubomyr soPilNYK, Ph.d. lviv university of Business and law (ukraine)doc. Paeddr. samuel uhriN, Csc. akademia Pomorska w słupsku (Poland)Prof. Bernard WiśNiEWsKi, Ph.d. Wyższa szkoła Policji w szczytnie (Poland)Prof. larisa a. YaNKoVsKa, Ph.d. lviv university of Business and law (ukraine)assoc. Prof. Mirosław zaBiEroWsKi, Ph.d. Wyższa szkoła oficerska Wojsk lądowych im. generała tadeusza Kościuszki we Wrocławiu (Poland)doc. Vasyl zaPlatYNsKYi, Csc. National aviation university (ukraine)doc. Judr. Vladimir zouBEK, ll.M., MBa. Policejní akademie české republiky v Praze (Czech republic)

board of reviewerS:

Contents

Scientific Pivot

Juliusz PiwowarskiThree Pillars of Security Culture • 16

DiSPoSitional GrouPS

Janusz Gierszewski, Juliusz Piwowarski, Józef PruchniakPerception of Apoliticism of the Police • 30

international Security

Martina Wyszynska Johanssonupper Secondary vocational education as an educational Path into the Security Industry – a Swedish Case • 55

PerSonal Security

teresa GrabińskaPersonal Safety in the light of Transhumanistic Ideology • 76

internal Security

Stanislav Križovský, Jozefína Drotárová, Monika Blišťanovávoluntary community fire Brigades as Means of Increasing the Environment Security • 92

Peter Palko, Dušan repčíkImportance of Weapons Amnesties in Slovakia • 106

loGiSticS

Bartosz Zakrzewskiformer Military airfield in Biała Podlaska as a Part of New Logistics Centre in Southern Podlasie • 116

international Security

Miroslav HoschekHeptagonal – introduction to a Seven Seas Doctrine – – Years 2030 • 136

Security tecHnoloGieS

Łukasz SzklarskiSensor network Deployment optimization for improved area Coverage Using a Genetic Algorithm • 150

leGal Security

Karolina Biczinternational criminal tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia • 184

SECURITY DIMENSIONSInternatIonal & natIonal StudIeS

no. 19; 2016 (136–148)

hePTagonal – inTroducTion To a seVen seas docTrine – years 2030

Miroslav Hoschek, Ph.D.e-Silk Road, an independent NGO, SLOVAKIA

ABSTRACT

We will operate in this article with visions, actions, and alternative strategies for territory around a zone of „Seven Seas – HePtaGonal“, where a new geopolitical players will emerge. the next decades crises and regional wars could erupt and spread under numerous unpredictable scenarios. During the 2030s will China, U.S., India and Russia meet in a zone of „Seven Seas – HePtaGonal“, with the spread of regional wars, using their military, political or intelligence capacity, to try to fight against terrorism or to block regional war expansion.

ARTICLE INFO

Article historyReceived: 04.07.2016 Accepted 21.09.2016

Key wordsthe 2030s military strategies, terrorism, Seven Seas – HEPTAGONAL, Xinjiang´ tectonic plate, the islamic caliphates, the Middle east alliances

1. A Zone of „seven seas – HePtAGonAL“

1.1. the multipolar world around 2030

The multipolar world around the 2030´s will see a shift of power to coali-tions and networks. a new type of regional war, involving non-state actors

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and terrorism attacks will be seen. During that decade the uS will fail as the global policeman. that will be caused by declining economy domi-nance, strategic impotence and growing insularity.

Global and regional insecurity both will bring increasing risk of ex-tremism and transnational criminality will be supported by powerful ter-rorist semi-states or networks. islamist terrorism will not flicker out, it is likely that terrorism will increase massively. Many states will directly sup-port terrorists groups, providing them widespread access to new disruptive and lethal technologies.

the other hegemonic powers will demonstrate their willingness to guarantee globally security protection to autocratic states or corrupt local regions or governments. Moreover, a rapid urbanisation will increase or-ganised crime and criminal violence in global mega cities.

1.2. „Five seas“ expanding to „seven seas – HePtAGonAL“ Doctrine

During the past two or three decades the geopolitical strategists have de-fined several central zones of global instability, all of them situated on a eurasian continent1. the Middle east is defined as a heart of a „Five seas – Pentagon“ with the strongest military, oil and gas sources, pipelines, maritime routes, migrants and terrorists or drug route concentration. this five Seas Pentagon (a region, countries and zones around caspian Sea, Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, red and arabian/Gulf Sea) is known as an insecure area, with ongoing regional wars and religious clashes, and is a world epicenter of threats by various terrorist alliances.

if we add to the five Seas Zone the next two seas (Baltic Sea2 and north Sea), we will engender a zone of „Seven Seas – HEPTAGONAL“, where geopolitical rivalries try to win their territorial, political, religious, energy or maritime dominance (see Map 1). The decade of 2030s will be completely unpredictable for present military intelligence strategists, en-ergy analysts or logistic experts3.

1 Z. Brzezinski, Out of Control: Global Turmoil on the Eve of the 21st Century, charles Scribner’s Sons Macmillan Publishing Company, New York 1993.

2 e. Gümbel, Launching the Baltic Science Network, cBSS Science Minister’s conference, Kraków, 16 June 2016.

3 P. nečas, J. ušiak, Nový prístup k bezpečnosti štátu na začiatku 21 storočia, akadémia ozbrojených síl gen. M. R. Štefánika, Liptovský Mikuláš 2010, p. 167.

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Map 1. A zone of „Seven Seas – HEPTAGONAL“, prepared by author

1.3. trends near „seven seas – Heptagonal“ area

We have here other example of the reasons of further migration waves to a zone of „Seven Seas – HEPTAGONAL“, coming from eastern parts of buffer regions such as north-east Pakistan and north-West india. cy-clical water shortages with threats of freshwater contamination combine with risks of food scarcity. the extreme weather such as storms and floods geographically may cause even a disappearance of the indian Summer Monsoon. these all will cause a new wave of migrants to regions of our zone of „Seven Seas – HEPTAGONAL“.

for instance, the Southern buffer parts of our „Seven Seas – HeP-taGonal“ zone, belong to Sub-Saharan and east africa. these are the driest regions on a planet with the potential of hundreds of millions po-tential migrants. Africa’s population, now 1.1 billion, is projected to grow to 2.4 billion by 2050.

the Muslim population of the Middle east and africa alone will have grown to 552 million in 2050, from 317 million in 2010. India, whose current population approaches 1.3 billion, recently announced that it will be seeking “to emigrate” 300 million of its own. These new migrants will attempt to move to European part of zone of „Seven Seas – HEPTAGONAL“ during next couple of decades.

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We expect between 2020- 2030 for a European part of „Seven Seas zone – HePtaGonal“, a lost decade, because european leaders are ignoring necessary structural reforms in energy, climate and high tech sec-tors . the whole zone of „Seven Seas – HePtaGonal“ will lose global competitiveness to other emerging regions such as latin america and South east asia.

new regional powers like Brazil, indonesia, nigeria or South africa will be impatient to occupy not only economic but also political power in institu-tions as the united nations, World Bank or iMf. However these countries currently lack the long term and sustainable vision for the world. on the other side, anew organisations or global clubs, as the Shanghai - coopera-tion organisation (Sco) or eurasian economic union (eeu) will emerge.

2. A new silk Road strategies for „seven seas zones – Heptagonal“

2.1. Chinese 2030 infrastructure projects

Around year 2030 a number of Chinese infrastructure projects and strategic exports and logistics trade hubs, pipelines, roads, railways will be complet-ed. china’s interest in the Middle east is energy-driven, this way copying routes of old Silk road. china4 is also concerned about security of energy supply lines. china recently signed several agreements with iran and Pa-kistan to connect express railways via central asia. Such rail routes may have both commercial and military capabilities. china provides compet-itive package deals that may include military aid in addition to banking credit lines, as well as chinese banks credit financing for oil, for strategic minerals, or infrastructure projects.

in eastern europe the chinese high speed railways project will con-nect Budapest and athens through Belgrade and Skopje, where the coor-dination hub would be stationed.

in israel the railway network is being finished by chinese firms, con-necting a cargo rail line linking the Mediterranean ports of ashdod and Haifa with eilat in the red Sea eilat, with eventual connections to Jor-dan’s Aqaba Port. This may be dubbed the “Med-Red rail,” and the “steel canal c” will bypass an increasingly unstable Suez canal.

4 J. Piwowarski, a. czop, The Current Migration as a Factor of the Terrorist Threat in Europe and Poland, „Security Dimensions. International and national Studies“, 2015, no. 16, p. 48–73.

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in Syria despite the war, china is using a trans-shipment hub located near the Damascus-Baghdad highway. china holds large stakes n Syria’s oil industry, with china national Petrol. china also signed deals to build a high-speed railway linking cairo, alexandria, luxor, with a longer-term view to connect Sudan and east africa´s Horn with the Middle east via egypt.

2.2. Xinjiang´ tectonic plate

Xinjiang (uyghur: ڭاجنىش , chinese: 新疆; Xīnjiāng), Xinjiang, an au-tonomous territory in northwest china, is a vast region of deserts and mountains. it’s home to many ethnic minority groups, including the tur-kic uyghur people. the ancient Silk road trade route linking china and the Middle east passed through Xinjiang. a chinese province Xingjiang has 8 neighbor states, Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kirgizia, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Afghanistan and India (see Map 2).

Xinjian is find to be the tectonic plate for ethnic and religion structure5 and ongoing conflicts. We expect for decade after year 2030 increasing movements, which we name here a „Xinjiang´ tectonic plate“ phenomenon.

uyghur nation is one of many Xinjiang´ nations. uyghur are Muslims and in past they supported several uprisings against chinese regime. recently, some young uygur men reportedly joined those fighting for the self-acclaimed “caliphate” – islamic State. Xingiang´ origin uyghur warriors named themselves as a members of the „islamic movement of eastern turkestan“.

In 2015 the Chinese Parliament introduced its first anti-terrorist Act. also china experienced the phenomenon of foreign fighters from the arab World in the Syrian civil war6.

In 2015 the first 5.000 Chinese elite special forces had transferred to the Syrian arabic republic in levant district. these chinese army mil-itary troops named themselves as „Siberian tigers“ and „night tigers“ and these redoubtable are soldiers coming from Xinjian and lanzhou military districts.

5 J. Piwowarski, Bezpieczeństwo jako wartość, Materiały z ii Konferencji naukowej z 18 kwietnia 2010, Wyższa Szkoła Bezpieczeństwa Publicznego i Indywidualnego „Apeiron” w Krakowie, Kraków 2010.

6 http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18539.htm.

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Map 2. Xinjiang, an autonomous territory, source: www.johomaps.com

2.3. Chinese military and naval strategies

china’s maritime strategy is to use diplomacy to establish economic7 and political control over ports and shipping lanes, but is not, currently, about establishing military bases on foreign soil. that means for Seven Seas zone „HEPTAGONAL“, China is acquiring routes across the Strait of Hormuz to Suez canal giving accessing to the Bosphorus or Gibraltar in Mediterranean.

in several Mediterranean ports there are expanding chinese shipping and logistics companies. china Harbour engineering company or lines of communication (SlocS) are modernising Piraeus port in Greece, container terminals in Marseilles and Barcelona ports, and the libyan’s tripoli port. it giant Huawei is building a fibre optic networks with Por-tugal telcom, as well as rail route in Spain (el Prat pier), and a new air terminal north of rome. 7 M. nazemroaya, The Sino-Russian Alliance, Challenging America’s Ambitions in Eurasia,

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18539.htm.

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During recent years the chinese have been sending chinese warships8 to the Mediterranean or red Seas to “show of flags”, coordinated with the russian naval flotilla. in egypt, china’s shipping company coSco has a 20 percent share in the Danish Maersk container port in Port Said. in the red Sea china is enlarging Port Sudan, which gives the ability to deliver chinese civilian or military maritime shipments to Sudan and to east africa regions. china recently in opened a closed operational port to the Persian Gulf with the Gwadar Port in Pakistan.

3. A Buffer Zones for „seven seas – HePtAGonAL“

3.1. the Middle east alliances

During recent years several new partnership and alliances in the Middle East were initiated. At the end of 2015 Saudi´s leaders created an organi-sation called “34-state Islamic Coalition Against Terror”, based in Riyadh with Saudi arabia, united arab emirates, Pakistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, turkey, Sudan, Somalia, Kuwait, egypt, libya, Morocco, Mauritania, ni-ger, nigeria and others, as indonesia, have expressed their support.

turkey is part of the islamic civilisation and geographic bridge (see Map 3). Several new initiatives have occurred, where Turkey is a key part-ner. first, the prime ministers of israel, Saudi arabia and turkey had recently proclaimed publicly about deep interest in a common alliance. next, china elevated its strategic partnership9 with turkey and Pakistan to build a silk railway, increase bilateral trade, upgrade military relations, provide airspace and refueling for chinese warplanes.

In years 2015–2016 was Turkey internationally blamed for offering open military and financial support to the islamic State. turkey and Saudi arabia do not regard find the islamic State as a terrorist organization, rather they are “islamist Syrian revolutionaries”, fighting against assad regime in Syria and its russian ally. We saw in the civil war in Syria the launch of cruise missiles from russian ships in the caspian Sea, led by heavy russian air bombing, directed against the iSiS terrorists.

We will continue to see support for often conflicting allies in the Mid-dle east. in previous years russia supported turkey to join the Shanghai cooperation organisation. However, relations between russia and turkey

8 http://www.defenceupdate.in/china-set-to-deploy-5000-elite-troops-in-syria/.9 M. nazemroaya, The Sino-Russian Alliance…

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deteriorated in 2015, because of the ongoing war in Syria, where they ap-pear on opposite sides. russia proclaimed an embargo for turkish textile and agriculture products. then followed russian know-how withdrawal in the construction of the first nuclear energy plant in turkey.

Map 3. Source: http://www.islamproject.org/education/Ottoman_Empire.html

Turkey, supporting Islamic State, was in 2015-2016 reselling Iraqi and Syrian oil for a low price to Kurdish and turkish smuggling networks and mafias. they then re-labelled the oil and sold it on as barrels from the Kurd-istan regional Government through the turkish ports of Mersin, Dortyol and ceyhan to third countries. these negative actions by turkey create a conflict of interest and compromise nato’s strategies and policies.

We expect for the 2030s decade severe and long term regional conflict, due to the Saudi and turkish obscure, aggressive, preposterous and mul-ti-faceted foreign and military policy. We expect, that the Middle east will destruct into a two- three bigger Islamic Caliphates and 4-5 small-er islamic satellites chaotically orbiting around the bigger one. the new Islamic Caliphates Trio could overtake powers and expand territorially from dismissed states such as Syria, Turkey, Iraq10, Saudi arabia and even may create a split in iran11. 10 i. Żukowska, On Personal Security Issues of Soldiers from Polish Military Contingent in

Iraq, „Security Dimensions. Iinternational and national Studies”, 2016, no 17, p. 42–54.11 http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/article/21045.

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3.2. Iran´s subversion and terrorism

iran´s main direction for terrorist groups support are lebanon, Syria, Pal-estinian area and Iraq. Especially Shi’ite´ Muslims and Hezbollah are, for iran, convenient groups to develop subversive terrorist networks. iranian petrodollars, arms provision and military training of Shi’ite islamic revo-lution are diffused to local Muslim communities. iran´s supports Hezbol-lah terrorism against Iraqi soldiers in Northern Iraq.

Khomeini’s radical Shi’ite islam disseminate political, economic and religious subversion also to South asia and latin america. in latin america, argentina and Brazil have the biggest concentration of Mus-lims, with about 700 thousand people. This is about radical Shi’ite Islami-sation financing the building of new mosques, funding religious training and exporting terrorism.

iran has opened diplomatic missions in several latin american coun-tries to undermine american hegemony. iran exports to latin america their latest conventional weapon systems, providing military training to en-able terrorist attacks. in parallel, iran supports in intelligence and terrorist networks of venezuela, Bolivia, nicaragua, ecuador, argentina and Brazil12.

an ambitious iranian nuclear program is eager to access venezuelan or Ecuador unmined deposits, estimated to contain over 50 thousands of tons of uranium. iran is supporting these countries with geophysical flights and geochemical uranium deposit analysis. iranian joint ventures enterprises in venezuela and elsewhere are the routes for money launder-ing and evading international sanctions against iran. finally, both regimes co-ordinate a common oil price policy, as iran and venezuela are in top five ranking as a biggest global oil exporters.

3.3. the Balkan and Islamic Caliphates after 2030

Historically, there were at least ten big wars13 on european continent against Muslims between AD 711 to 1699. Moreover, there were counting dozens of bloody regional wars that nations in Poland, Hungary, Spain, (see Picture 1), Byzantium, Greece, Cyprus, Serbia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Albania had

12 http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/articleprint.aspx?id=20318.13 K. Schelle, Die Anfänge der Europäischen Integration – erste Bemühungen um kollektive

Sicherheit in Europa, „Security Dimensions. Iinternational and national Studies“, 2013, no. 10, p. 67-71.

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to battle to protect themselves from islamic expansion14 . next, during the 18th and 19th century, there were about nine Russian wars with Turkey.

as we expect, a great islamic war in the Middle east will export re-gional wars and influence around. in the Balkans the present geopolitical games will become outdated. they are mostly orthodox christian coun-tries supported by russia’s (and partly china´s) West Balkans Strategies (with Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia Moldova, transdnistria buffer zones). these nations, and their ethnically motivated conflicts and challenges provide many points of tension.

Picture 1 – A roof of “Fundación Euroárabe de Altos Estudios“, Granada, Spain, photo by author

Geo-politically, the whole Balkan area15 provides an outer periphery for global players that could potentially jeopardise the fragile equilibrium

14 K. Schelle, Die Anfänge…15 K. Štrbac Katarina, The General Overwiev of Assymetric Threats in the Balkan, pag-

es 3-10, NATO Science for Peace and Security Series, E: Human and Societal Dynamics, Vol. 85, International Conference, Belgrade, Serbia, Oct. 22-24, 2010, ISSN 1879 8268.

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of oil and gas pipelines or infrastructure projects. As we said, in the 2030s decade could see regional wars spread under various unpredictable scenar-ios16. We will briefly draw our 2030s scenario for Balkan part of „Seven Seas Zone - HePtaGonal“. the line of fire on Balkan may this way around year 2030 create two or three smaller regional caliphates orbiting around islamic states in the Middle east.

Picture 2, Source: https://islamicpersecution.wordpress.com/tag/radical-islam-in-bosnia

the Muslim populations of the Balkan Peninsula are in unstable buffer states like Bosnia-Herzegovina, Greater albania and Macedonia (see Pic-ture 2). The Persian Gulf absolutist monarchies and Turkey have a special relation with Muslims in the Balkans.

We see that Saudi arabian sponsors are funding a brutal de-chris-tianization of Bosnia and albania. Here a Saudi money goes for massive Bosnian Islamic educational institutions (over 100 thousands students), for islamic Jihadi activists, next for the Wahhabi sect of Sunni islam, affil-iated with Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood.

the region plays an important role for the military or intelligence interests of nato and the u.S. Both nato and the u.S. continue in Kosovo and albania during last two decades to support and finance a ter-rorist groups responsible for european routes of smuggling weapons, the heroin and other narcotics trade and criminal human organ trafficking. these are factors that will continue to destabilise the whole Balkan region in the future.

16 J. Zaťko, J. lasicová, Migranti a utečenci, príčiny a dôsledky, international confererence, Bezpečnosť, Extrémizmus, Terorizmus 2015, Dec. 10-11. 2015 Eastern European De-velopment Agency n.o. Podhájska, Slovakia, ISBN 978-80-89608-29-4.

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Map 4. The European Geo-Political 2030 scenario, prepared by author

A blurred strategical year 2030 picture of a zone of „Seven Seas – HEPTAGONAL“, (see Map 4) with weak energy transfer security may generate the next eurasian conflicts, where Balkan and european coun-tries will implode, creating new military zones of instability, with unsus-tainable confrontations of gloomy migrants trying to escape problematic war regions and military or terrorist acts.

4. Conclusion

in this article, we had operated with alternative scenarios, visions and strat-egies for territory around a zone of „Seven Seas – HEPTAGONAL“, having angles defined by the Seven Seas, as drawn in upper lines. During the years around 2030 will begin a third industrial revolution, with new generation of global technologies and initiatives, with global access to 5G internet, where regional dynamics will operate in various technological or educational hubs. However the growing reliance on information and communication upgrades will go hand by hand with cyber space attacks, cyber-crime terrorism, where hackers or small groups may sabotage indus-trial installations or military and research or data centers.

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Cite this article as:

M. Hoschek, Heptagonal – Introduction to a Seven Seas Doctrine – Years 2030, “Security Dimensions. International and National Studies”, 2016, no 19, p. 136–148.

hoschek - heptagonal – introduction to a seven seas doctrine - years 2030

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