hospitality lawyer with pearls from nyu - bjorn hanson & economists 6 2 08
DESCRIPTION
Hotel Lawyer in NY. We cover many topics at wwwHotelLawBlog.com, but ne of the things that has fascinated me about the hospitality industry for more than 20 years now, is the close -- almost intimate -- relationship of industry performance to the U.S. economy's performance. Some might say this is intuitive, that when the economy does well, all business does well. But that is not always true. There are some businesses which do better in hard times, like discount and bargain stores, and there are some that seem impervious, like ultra luxury goods. However the relationship of the lodging industry's performance to the general economy, has been carefully documented by the experts, and it is worth noting. The implications are interesting.Here is the presentation made at the NYU Hotel Investment Conference on June 2, 2008, along with his other panelists about the current state of our domestic and global economy, along with implications for the hospitality industry.TRANSCRIPT
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The Economists
30th Annual New York UniversityInternational Hospitality Industry
Investment Conference
The Economists
June 2, 2008
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PanelistsPanelistsDavid A. Wyss, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Standard & Poor’s
Bjorn Hanson, Ph.D.Principal, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
Bernard BaumohlExecutive Director,The Economic Outlook Group LLC
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The U.S. Lodging Industry and The Economy
The U.S. Lodging Industry and The Economy
Bjorn Hanson, Ph.D.Principal – Hospitality & Leisure
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
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© 2008 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
For the past 25 years, the relationship between growth of lodging demand and economy has averaged 0.9:1
For the past 25 years, the relationship between growth of lodging demand and economy has averaged 0.9:1
U.S. Lodging Demand and The Economy
The range, excluding 1991 and 2001, has been 0.17:1 (in 2006) to 4.3:1 (in 1987)
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© 2008 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
1967 – 1991 1.2
Time Period Elasticity*
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
1991 – 2000 0.71991 – 2000 0.72002 0.22002 0.2
2003 0.5 2003 0.5 2004 1.01 2004 1.01
Demand Elasticity and Correlation to Real GDP
2005 0.912005 0.91
**Adjusted for hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
2006 0.172006 0.172007 0.352007 0.35
0.70**0.38**0.58
YTD 2008 0.29YTD 2008 0.29
* All statistically significant at p=0.05.
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© 2008 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
Demand Elasticity and Correlation to Real GDP
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07Sources: Lodging demand – PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP based on Smith Travel Research data; Real GDP- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Air travel demand - Air Transport Association.
1987 value = 100
US Real GDP
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© 2008 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
Demand Elasticity and Correlation to Real GDP
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07Sources: Lodging demand – PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP based on Smith Travel Research data; Real GDP- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Air travel demand - Air Transport Association.
1987 value = 100
US Real GDP
Lodging Demand(Room Nights Sold)
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© 2008 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
Nominal and Real Gasoline Price Long Term Trend
Source: Energy Information Administration, May 2008 Monthly Energy Review, Bureau of Labor Statistics
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
Dec-
80De
c-81
Dec-
82De
c-83
Dec-
84De
c-85
Dec-
86De
c-87
Dec-
88De
c-89
Dec-
90De
c-91
Dec-
92De
c-93
Dec-
94De
c-95
Dec-
96De
c-97
Dec-
98De
c-99
Dec-
00De
c-01
Dec-
02De
c-03
Dec-
04De
c-05
Dec-
06De
c-07
Nominal Gasoline Price
Unleaded Regular Price per Gallon
May 2008 over May 2007Nominal Price Change +19.7%
Nominal Price Per Gallon Change +$0.64
Real Gasoline Price
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© 2008 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
PwC has calculated that when real gasoline prices increase by 10 percent, US lodging demand declines by 0.5 percent.
If real gasoline prices had remained at 2006 Q4 levels, occupancy in 2007 would have been > 0.2 occupancy points.
If real gasoline prices remained at 2007 levels, occupancy in 2008 would be > 0.4 occupancy points.
PwC has calculated that when real gasoline prices increase by 10 percent, US lodging demand declines by 0.5 percent.
If real gasoline prices had remained at 2006 Q4 levels, occupancy in 2007 would have been > 0.2 occupancy points.
If real gasoline prices remained at 2007 levels, occupancy in 2008 would be > 0.4 occupancy points.
Lodging Demand Sensitivity to Gasoline Prices
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David A. Wyss, Ph.D.Chief Economist
Standard & Poor’s
The Economic Outlook: Oil and Bubble
The Economic Outlook: Oil and Bubble
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CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s.
Copyright (c) 2008 Standard & Poor’s, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Economic Outlook: Fasten Your Seatbelts
David WyssChief EconomistStandard & Poor’s
June 2, 2008
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12.
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s.
The U.S. Is In Recession
• The economy has moved into recession.
• Housing has been in recession for two years, subtracting over a percentage point from GDP growth in 2007.
• But that was offset by strength in nonresidential construction and the closing of the trade gap, each of which added back over a half point.
• Weaker overseas growth will mean less benefit from the trade deficit, despite the declining dollar.
• Nonresidential construction is beginning to decline
• The fiscal stimulus package will cause the fiscal 2008 deficit to more than double, and could beat the 2004 record. But it should boost the economy late this year.
• The Fed has cut rates sharply.
• The recession should be mild because of the fiscal and monetary stimulus
• But probably long.
• And a deeper recession is possible if the financial markets remain locked up, oil prices continue to rise, and home prices continue to drop.
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13.
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s.
Home Prices Were Too High
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
Existing New Quality-adjusted
(Ratio of average home price to average household disposable income)
Source: BEA, Census
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14.
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s.
Home Price Declines
0% to -3%0% to +3%
-3% or worse
(1-year change in home prices, First quarter)
+3% or more
Source: OFHEO
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15.
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s.
0
2
4
6
8
10
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Federal Funds Rate 10-Yr Bond Yield Mortgage rate
(Percent)
The Fed Is Done Cutting
Source: Federal Reserve
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16.
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s.
The World Is Ignoring The U.S. Sniffles
• World growth remains solid
• Slower growth in the US and Europe is offset by stronger growth in Asia
• The train has more engines attached
• And the world is thus less dependent on US growth
• We expect a slight slowdown in world growth, to 3.9% from 4.9% in 2007
• But the big trade and capital imbalances are a risk
• And higher oil prices could still slow growth more
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17.
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s.
And Comes Mostly From Asia
US20%
Eurozone15%
Japan6%
Other Adv11%
China15%
India6%
East Eur7%
Other 20%
(IMF purchasing power weights, 2006)
US12%
Eurozone9%
Japan3%
Other Adv7%
China30%
India11%
East Eur11%
Other 17%
Percent of World GrowthPercent of World GDP
Source: IMF
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18.
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s.
Oil Prices Hit New Records
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20103%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Oil price (WTI) 2005 dollars % of disp. income (right)
($/barrel, WTI and deflated by CPI; household energy purchases as percent of disposable income)
Source: BEA
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Bernard BaumohlExecutive Director
The Economic Outlook Group, LLC
What’s Ahead for the U.S. EconomyWhat’s Ahead for the U.S. Economy
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Will the Economy Will the Economy Delight, Dismay or Depress?Delight, Dismay or Depress?
New York University International HospitalityNew York University International HospitalityIndustry Investment ConferenceIndustry Investment Conference
June 2, 2008June 2, 2008
The Economic Outlook Group, LLCThe Economic Outlook Group, LLC
Bernard Baumohlwww.EconomicOutlookGroup.com
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Question is irrelevant!• People behave the same whether the economy shrinks by 1%… or grows by 1%! • Fact: Housing is in recession• Fact: Credit is scarce• Fact: Consumers have cut spending• Fact: Business remains cautious and have scaled back on expenditures
Are we now in recession?
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
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% Decline in Home Prices Last 12 Months
S&P/Case-Shiller20 U.S. Metropolitan areas (April ‘08)
- 14.4%
OFHEO(1Q ‘08 from year ago)
- 3.1%
Existing HomesNational Assoc. Realtors (Median price- April’08)
- 8.0%
New HomesUS Commerce Dept. (Median price - April’08)
+1.5%
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
Source: S&P/Case Shiller; NAR, US Dept. Commerce
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Record High Foreclosures
U.S. default/foreclosures jumped 112% in IQ ‘08 versus year ago.One of every 194 homes is in some stage of foreclosureNearly 3 million foreclosed properties will be on the market in 2008 and 20099 million borrowers are “underwater.”Worst states: Nevada 1 out of 54 homes
California 1 one of 78 homes Arizona 1 out of 95 Florida 1 out of 97 homes
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupSource: RealtyTrac; Economic Outlook Group
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
HMISF Detached: PresentSF Detached: Next 6 monthsTraffic of Prospective Buyers
Housing Market Index (HMI) and The Three Components: 1995-Present(Seasonally Adjusted)
Source: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market
Housing Market Index (HMI) and the Three Components: 1995 - PresentSeasonally Adjusted
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
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Housing’s Impact on the Economy
Home construction alone: 5% of GDPHome construction plus homebuyer purchases (appliances, furniture and etc.): 23% of GDPHomebuilders hire 11% of total U.S. work force
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
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Housing Will Bottom Early 2009
Some Good News• Anecdotal signs lenders
loosening up
• Home affordability is highest in5 years
• Stock of unsold new homes lowest in 3 yrs.
• Pent up demand for houses
• More lenders reluctant to foreclose
But Recovery Will Be Slow
• Job market very weak
• Fewer mortgage originators out there
• Lenders will remain cautious issuing loans
• Home price appreciation to be modest
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
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--- CREDIT STILL SCARCE ---Who is to blame? Just about Everyone!!
Consumers borrowed irresponsibly for years.Consumers borrowed irresponsibly for years.
Lenders doled out money recklessly (NINJA mortgages).Lenders doled out money recklessly (NINJA mortgages).
Investors, frustrated by low yields, demanded securities with Investors, frustrated by low yields, demanded securities with higher returns.higher returns.
Financial firms happily complied; crafted a panoply of asset bacFinancial firms happily complied; crafted a panoply of asset backed ked securities lead by subprime mortgages.securities lead by subprime mortgages.
Rating agencies stamp their top approval on these bonds.Rating agencies stamp their top approval on these bonds.
All that easy money PLUS low interest rates firedAll that easy money PLUS low interest rates fired--up real estate up real estate sales and swelled household debt.sales and swelled household debt.
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
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Comparing Losses:Where does the latest financial crises rank?
Costliest natural disaster in U.S. history: Katrina (2005): $80 billion
Most catastrophic attack on U.S. soil: 9/11 (2001): $50 billion
Losses and write downs (so far) from subprime disaster: $235 billion
IMF projects total cost of subprime disaster: $945 billion!!
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
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Comparing Losses:Where does the latest financial crises rank?
Costliest natural disaster in U.S. history: Katrina (2005): $80 billion
Most catastrophic attack on U.S. soil: 9/11 (2001): $50 billion
Losses and write downs (so far) from subprime disaster: $235 billion
IMF projects total cost of subprime disaster: $945 billion!!
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
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Comparing Losses:Where does the latest financial crises rank?
Costliest natural disaster in U.S. history: Katrina (2005): $80 billion
Most catastrophic attack on U.S. soil: 9/11 (2001): $50 billion
Losses & write downs (so far) from subprime disaster: $379 billion
IMF projects total cost of subprime disaster: $945 billion!!
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
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Comparing Losses:Where does the latest financial crises rank?
Costliest natural disaster in U.S. history: Katrina (2005): $80 billion
Most catastrophic attack on U.S. soil: 9/11 (2001): $50 billion
Losses & write downs (so far) from subprime disaster: $379 billion
IMF projects total cost of subprime disaster: $945 billion!!
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
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400
450
500
550
600
650
700
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
Residential Spending Non-Residential Spending
2007 2008
Construction Spending Activity$ Billions, monthly annualized
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupSource: Commerce Department
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20222426283032343638
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
Lodging Construction Activity$ Billions, monthly annualized
2007 2008
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupSource: Commerce Department
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-2.5-2
-1.5-1
-0.50
0.51
1.52
2.5
200820072006
%Change in Price of Lodging for Consumers - Monthly
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Economic outlook GroupThe Economic outlook GroupThe Economic outlook Group
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• Federal Reserve Board has moved aggressively to improve conditions in the financial sector.
• Lenders are making progress repairing their balance sheets.
• More confidence that worst is over --- though more losses and write downs are likely.
• Interest rate spreads are narrowing.
---> Result: Credit freeze will (slowly) start to thaw in2nd half 2008; Mid-2009 will look better.
Credit Markets Should Begin to Function More Normally by Mid-2009?
The Economic outlook GroupThe Economic outlook GroupThe Economic outlook Group
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Consumers to Cut Back on Spending
• Job market is weakening
• Household income not keeping pace with inflation
• Americans struggle with debt. De-leveraging underway
• Household wealth is on the decline. People feel poorer now than a year ago.
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
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-150-100
-500
50100150200250300
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A
Job Market is DeterioratingMonthly Change in Business Payrolls
Thousands of jobs
2006 2007 2008
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
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-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A
Growth in Real EarningsAverage Weekly Earnings, 1982 dollars
12-month % change
2007 2008
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
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Reg. Gasoline: To Peak $5.00/gallon Within 1 - 2 Yrs.The highs are getting higher AND lows are getting higher too!
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
Source: GasBuddy.com
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0102030405060708090
GD
P
Dis
posa
ble
Pers
onal
Inco
me
Med
ian
Pric
e N
ewH
ome
Empl
oym
ent
Hou
seho
ldD
ebt
% Increase from 2000 to 2007
Sources: Commerce Department; Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
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• Unemployment rate to remain historically low
• Applications for jobless benefits below recession levels
• Households are in the process of de-leveraging
• Not all regions of the country are hurting
• Second stimulus package likely early 2009
Reasons To Be Hopeful About Consumers
The Economic outlook GroupThe Economic outlook GroupThe Economic outlook Group
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The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
Time
What Does It All Mean For The Economy?
Output (Real GDP)
Recession
Trough
Recovery
Expansion
Peak
Recession TroughRecovery
WE’RE MORE THAN HALF WAY THROUGH
DOWNTURN
OUTPUT PEAKED NOV/DEC ‘07
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Biggest Risks Next 12 - 24 Months?
Domestic Shocks-- One or more major lenders fail (40% probability)-- Oil touches $200 a bbl. (30%)-- Dollar continues to depreciate (70%)
Foreign Shocks-- Hamas & Hezbollah deploy longer-range missiles (60%)-- Lebanese civil war erupts (50%) -- Military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities (65%)-- Terrorist attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities (75%)
The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
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The Economic Outlook GroupThe Economic Outlook Group
Bernard Baumohl
www.EconomicOutlookGroup.com
The Economic Outlook Group, L.L.C.475 Wall Street
Princeton, New Jersey 08540
(609) 529-1300
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Economic ForecastsStandard & Poor’s The Economic
Outlook Group
2007 2008 2009 2008 2009
Euro / Dollar Exchange Rate (Year-end)
Real GDP
CPI
Interest Rates – 3-Month T-Bills (Year-end)
Employment Percentage ChangePeak Oil (Barrel)
S&P 500 (Year-end)
2.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.4
2.9 3.9 2.3 3.4 2.6
3.0 1.6 3.0 3.25 4.20
0.2 0.1 -0.6 -0.31.1
$150 $125 $155 $110
1,500 1,620 1,490 1,5701,468
$87
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Energy Information Administration, Standard & Poor’s, and The Economic Outlook Group.
1.41 1.50 1.53 1.61 1.68
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PwC Hospitality SuiteThe Duke of Windsor Suite
Fourth Floor
© 2008 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
www.lodgingresearch.com
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Panelists
David A. Wyss, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Standard & Poor’s
Bjorn Hanson, Ph.D.Principal, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
Bernard BaumohlExecutive Director,The Economic Outlook Group LLC