hotel, port moresby
TRANSCRIPT
CLIMATE CHANGE, FORESTRY & CARBON TRADING WORKSHOP
INA, UPNG & PNGSD INITIATIVE
2nd JUNE 2008, CROWN PLAZA Hotel, Port Moresby.
CLIMATE CHANGE, VARIABILITY AND SEA
LEVEL RISE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION
MEASURES ON PAPUA NEW GUINEA REGION
Prof Chalapan KaluwinEnvironmental Science & GeographyUniversity of Papua New Guinea
Email: [email protected]
Topics to be coveredTopics to be covered
••Introduction Introduction
••Sciences of Climate Change, Sciences of Climate Change, variability, SLRvariability, SLR
••IMPACTS & ADAPTATIONIMPACTS & ADAPTATION
••RESPONSERESPONSE--A WAY FORWARDA WAY FORWARD
SCIENCESSCIENCES
••CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE,
VARIABILITY AND SEA LEVEL VARIABILITY AND SEA LEVEL
CHANGESCHANGES
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
WHAT IS GREENHOUSE EFFECT?•The "greenhouse effect" refers to the natural phenomenon that keeps the Earth in a temperature range that allows life to flourish.
•The sun's enormous energy warms the Earth's surface and its atmosphere. •As this energy radiates back toward space as heat, a portion is absorbed by a delicate balance of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere•These gases are referred to as greenhouse gases. Among them carbon dioxide and methane which creates an insulating layer.
•With the temperature control of the greenhouse effect, the Earth has an average surface temperature of 15°C.• Without it, the average surface temperature would be -18°C, a temperature so low that the Earth would be frozen and could not sustain life.
Greenhouse Gas Source/sink categories
CO2 CH4 N2 O
All Energy 3,018.0 X X
Industrial Processes 193.0 X X
Agriculture 4.27 12.20
Land Use Change &Forestry
413.0 X X
Totals 3,624.0 4.27 12.20
PNG Greenhouse gas inventory summary for 1994. All data are presented in gigagrams (Gg).
PNG GHG INVENTORY-
IPCC scenariosIPCC scenarios
•• Direct impacts Direct impacts eg on growth of eg on growth of plants plants –– growth growth of some types of of some types of plants favoured plants favoured over others. over others.
Rise in carbon dioxideRise in carbon dioxide790
Projected 2100
GLOBAL MEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATUREGLOBAL MEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
How bad is it going to get?How bad is it going to get?
2001 IPCC
scenarios
NASA data
Rahmstorf et al. 2007
Is it Global Warming or Climate Is it Global Warming or Climate Variability Signals in Pacific Variability Signals in Pacific Region? Region?
-- PACIFIC and PAPUA NEW PACIFIC and PAPUA NEW GUINEAGUINEA
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
AN
OM
(DE
G C
)
ANNUAL
5 YR MEAN
VARIATION FROM NORMAL TEMPERATURE AT MOMOTE (1951-2001)
Temperature Variation in Momotee Airport, Manus Province
GLOBAL MEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATUREGLOBAL MEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
THE South Pacific Convergence Zone- Influence in the Pacific.
THE STREAMLINE OF MEAN SURFACE WIND
Ocean acidificationOcean acidification
El El NiñoNiño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ImpactsSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) Impacts
Wetter and Drier regions associated
with ENSO and
La Nina (anti-ENSO)episodes
PNG
1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
TEM
P A
NO
MA
LY(D
EG
C) ANNUAL
5 YR RUN MEAN
VARIATION FROM NORMAL TEMP IN PNG SINCE 1945.
Sea Level Rise/Changes =Sea Level Rise/Changes =
TIDE LEVEL + WIND EFFECT + TIDE LEVEL + WIND EFFECT +
ATMOSPHERIC EFFECT + LAND ATMOSPHERIC EFFECT + LAND
MOVEMENT+ OCEANOGRAPHIC MOVEMENT+ OCEANOGRAPHIC EFFECT + EFFECT +
GHG Signals[thermal expansion]GHG Signals[thermal expansion]
+5.0
+5.0+7.0
+5.4
+3.6+4.8
+3.1 +10.8+2.1
+6.0
+6.9
n/a
Results to end of June 2004Net relative sea level rise (mm/year)
+3.8
+6.2+7.2
+5.4
+5.9+3.3
+2.9
+8.2 +4.2
+4.8
+6.3
+ 13.5
Results to end of March 2007Net relative sea level rise (mm/year)
44THTH IPCCIPCC--2007 Conclusions: 2007 Conclusions: Pacific RegionPacific Region
•• Sea Level Rise:Sea Level Rise: 22--9 mm/yr9 mm/yr
•• Increase in air temp:Increase in air temp: 1.61.6--3.40C by 21003.40C by 2100
•• Rainfall: mostly rise in the eastern and fall in the Rainfall: mostly rise in the eastern and fall in the
western Pacific western Pacific -- up to 20%up to 20%
•• Increase in Increase in El NinoEl Nino--likelike ConditionsConditions
•• Increase in Extreme EventsIncrease in Extreme Events
POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
WHAT IS THREATENED!!
Water Resource
Forest Resource
Agriculture
Biodiversity
People
Our Survival???
IMPACTS AND ADAPATION ON
• Biodiversity
•People
•Water
•Fisheries
•Tourism
•Forestry & Agriculture•
30S
10S
30N
50N
50S
10N
110E 130E
110E 130E
150E
150E
170E 170W
170E 170W
150W
150W
130W 110W
130W 110W 90W
90W
50S30S
10S30N
50N10N
30S
10S
30N
50N
50S
10N
110E 130E
110E 130E
150E
150E
170E 170W
170E 170W
150W
150W
130W 110W
130W 110W 90W
90W
50S30S
10S30N
50N10N
TUNA MIGRATION & BREEDING SITES
FORESTRY: MANGROVES SPECIES & Economic Initiatives- CDM & REDD
NATURAL DIEBACK
ATOLL ISLANDSATOLL ISLANDS
••FLOODINGFLOODING••TIDESTIDES••WASTEWASTE
CORAL REEF PROTECTION & SOCIAL CHALLENGES
LE MIGRATING & RESETTLEMENT??
Unique Island Biodiversity Protected
CROP RESEARCH FOR FORST IMPACTED AREAS IN Small Islands and HIGHLANDS REGION
ENTIRE ISLAND BIODIVERITY LOST DUE TO CYCLONES AND STORM SURGES IN 2 DAYS
The Way forwardThe Way forward•• Science evidence is critical in addressing the Science evidence is critical in addressing the Impacts of Climate Change and Variability are REAL Impacts of Climate Change and Variability are REAL for the PNG REGION, start planning now.for the PNG REGION, start planning now.
••Adopt Adaptation Measures to protect the Island Adopt Adaptation Measures to protect the Island Biodiversity of PNG.Biodiversity of PNG.
•• Ensure government Policies are aligned to meet Ensure government Policies are aligned to meet these new emerging issues as a these new emerging issues as a ““No Regrets No Regrets OptionOption””..
