household adaptation strategies to climate extremes and ... · events, man made catastrophes a few...
TRANSCRIPT
Household Adaptation Strategies to Climate Extremes and Population Consequences in
Rural Areas in the Czech Republic
Robert Stojanov, Barbora Duží, Dmytro Vikhrov
THE HAMBURG CONFERENCE: Actions for Climate-Induced Migration
July 16-18, 2013
THE HAMBURG CONFERENCE: Actions for Climate-Induced Migration
July 16-18, 2013
Outline of the presentation● Recent Floods Events in Central
Europe● floods and population on Becva River
Basin● Future research plans
Floods in Central Europe● increasing frequency of floods and
losses (2,75 bil. EUR in June 2013),● → open question about moving from
some frequently affected areas● ═> weather (climate)-induced
migration in Central Europe?
Research Questions• In response to weather extremes impacts
(mainly floods, droughts), what adaptation strategies have households undertaken?
– Reconstruction of the house?
– Choice of employment and education?
What is the relationship between the floods experienced and migration and commuting for work?
Population of interest are both affected and unaffected households residing in risk areas.
METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGYInterdisciplinary researchInterdisciplinary research→ to connect environmental and socio-economic conditions: scientific evidence / local knowledge
Mixed methodologyMixed methodology→ to grasp complex social reality through combination of research methods (quantitative and qualitative)
Case study approachCase study approach→ challenge for in-depth analysis, comparisons
Methods● Field research survey – two parts:● 1.Quantitative - 2012 – 2013 ● 605 'from door to door' household
questionnaires,● 1580 individuals residing in those households● 3 levels of past exposure to floods – high, low,
no exposure,● A quota of 10 observations was allocated to
each cell.
Questionnaire
• Past exposure to floods (landslides, drought);
• Adaptation strategies;
• Perception;
• Composition of the household.
Household level
questions:
Individual level
questions:
• Age, gender, education, occupation, income, experience.
• Current employment details.
• Internal migration.• Intentions to move.
Methods● 2. Qualitative - 2012 – 2013● 22 in-depth and semi-structured interviews
with main local stakeholders and experts.● 21 small towns and villages located in Becva
River Basin (middle and lower) and its tributaries and canals
● frequently affected by floods,● the smallest one (246) and the biggest one
(over 5,000 residents),
Methods● 3. Hydrological and meteorological data –
1961 – 2010● we bought original data from stations in the
Becva River basin and close surroundings,● daily water flows, precipitations, temperature,
wind characteristics.● we can confirm/refute existence of
climate/weather extremes (frequency and intensity),
● we can compare the measured quantitative data with received households perception data.
The intensity of exposure by floods and estimated impacts (1997-2012)
YearNumber of affected houses
Percentage (%)
Financial losses (US$ millions*)
1997 400 66.12 3.21
2002 44 7.27 0.06
2006 29 4.79 0.04
2009 64 10.58 0.09
2010 123 20.33 0.16
*USD/CZK currency 2012, average monthly income in CR (2012) – US$ 900 netto
Actual vs Perceived risk zone
Determinants of perception:
• Past experience with floods.
• Years lived in the area.
• Education and qualification level.
Troubky village - story of human memory and risk perception
● - the most affected village – town in CR,
● - frequently flooded,
● - 1997 floods – 9 people died,
● - 335 houses was completely destroyed (from total 720),
● - expected out-migration,
● - end of village? (newspapers stories),
● - no way! – newly constructed and repaired houses without using of significant adaptation strategies.
EM – successful stories
● my own research (South Asia, China, Chernobyl, etc.) and literature – EM such as negative aspect of environmental change / climate extremes, natural events, man made catastrophes
● a few examples of EM as positive changes:– new modern house (own finances, state support,
insurance, free land),
– safe place and using of adaptation techniques,
– good cooperation between municipality and locals,
– satisfaction and win – win strategy.
River Dyje (Thaya) BasinRiver Dyje (Thaya) Basin● Planned field survey:● July-Aug- 2013 – 10 villages and small
towns at minimum from the Czech Republic,
● 300 questionarries, 5 in-depths interv., ● call for Austrian partner !!
QUESTIONNARY EXTENSION● Experience with floods Experience with floods → → extreme weather eventsextreme weather events
● Adaptation measurements to floods Adaptation measurements to floods →→ including including droughtdrought
● Perception and preparedness to floodsPerception and preparedness to floods → extreme extreme weather eventsweather events
● Social-demographic characteristicsSocial-demographic characteristics
● Household resilience (self-provision, energy Household resilience (self-provision, energy independence, gardening)independence, gardening)
Extension of risk zones: Extension of risk zones: household location household location
● High risk → Q 20
● Low risk → Q 100
● No risk → beyond flood risk
● Drought risk - distance from water source- vegetation cover- underground water level- altitude- precipitation- temperature
Too Much Water
Wateravailability shortage
Conclusion● Field research enabled us to explore that
households also had troubles with flash floods from Becva river and its small tributaries and canals in particular.
● Generally we found that long term adaptation was quite a new approach and was realized partly (several successful examples).
Conclusion● We did not find any significant changes and
progress in household preparedness for floods risks.
● We identified two different processes:
– short human memory and climate extremes risks perception,
– 'success stories' of forced migration as the adaptation strategy.
●
References● Duží, B. et al.: Household Adaptation Strategies to Floods:
The Case Study of the Becva River Basin, the Czech Republic (under review)
● Vikhrov, D. et al. Commuting Patterns of Czech Households Exposed to Flood Risks from the Becva River (under review)
● Klemešová, K. (2012): Analýza hydrologických rizik na Dolní Bečvě. Diplomová práce, Brno: Masaryk University.
● IPCC (2012) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation.
● Mechler R., Kundzewicz Z.W. (2010) Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change, 15 (7), 611–620.
● Hansen J. et al. (2012) PNAS, 109 (37), E2415-E2423.● Kreibich H. Et al. (2011) Reg Environmental Change 11 (1),
59-71
Acknowledgement
collectors of data ...and
Project: Climate Change and Migration as Adaptation – No. LD 13032.
Project: Partnership in Climate Research and Adaptation Strategies – No. CZ.1.07/2.4.00/31.0056