household energy, water vulnerability in tajikistan and kyrgyzstan: what have we learned? ben slay...
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Household energy, water vulnerability in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan: What have we learned?
Ben SlaySenior economist
UNDP Bureau for Europe and CIS
Third Inter-Agency Conference on Regional Coordination and Compound Risks in Central Asia
14 April 2011
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Presentation overview• Focus on Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan• Two key questions:
– “After the winter”: Is the glass half full, or half empty?• “Perfect storm”?• “Gradual improvement”?
– Role of donors/international community?• “Policy advising feast versus implementation capacity
famine”?• Focusing on what works, scaling up
• Provide some answers from:– Yesterday’s preliminary event– New research results
• Possible future directions
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From “slow onset crisis” to . . .• “Perfect storm”?– Weak economies– Poor infrastructure– Poor energy, communal, public service delivery– Resistance to higher tariffs– Ineffective social protection– Corruption governance issues– Socio-political crisis (Kyrgyzstan 2010)
• Or signs of hope?– We survived the winter: because it was mild?
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Energy consumption: Some improvement in 2010
2007 2008 2009 201090
92
94
96
98
100
Tajikistan: Elec-tricity consump-
tion (2007 = 100)
Sources: State statistical agencies, UNDP calculations.
2007 2008 2009 20100
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Electricity consumption*
Coal consump-tion***
Gas consump-tion~
Kyrgyzstan (2007 = 100)
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Household energy, communal services inflation rates: High, but falling
Energy Communal services
63%
73%
41%
53%
21%26%
2008 2009 2010
Energy Communal services
30%
25%22%
20%
14%
32%2008 2009 2010
Tajikistan: Annual average inflation rates. Kyrgyzstan: Annual average inflation rates.
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Other signs of hope
• Kyrgyzstan:– Big improvements in water levels in Toktogul HPP– Collection rates in electricity sector have improved– Fuel and Energy Sector Transparency Initiative• Better energy sector regulation, corporate governance• Civic engagement
• Tajikistan:– New generation capacity (Sangtuda 1)– New transmission capacity (South-North high
tension line)
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• New official household survey data are available for Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan
• UNDP poverty and social impact assessments– On energy, communal service sectors in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan– Available on conference website
• But:– Survey data do not always correspond to production and sales data
provided by energy companies– Survey data on household expenditures do not always agree with
national income accounting data on consumption expenditure– Survey data not always internally consistent– Major survey data gaps on household access to communal services
remain
Poverty and household access to energy: New data and data issues
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National Dushanbe Villages93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%2007 2009
National Dushanbe Villages
390
419
364357
477
327
2007
2009
Link between grid connections, electricity supplies is broken in Tajikistan . . .
Average monthly household electricity consumption (kWh)
Share of households
using electricity
Source: State Statistical Agency
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Shares of households reporting electricity cut-offs
. . . And in Kyrgyzstan
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International affordability benchmarks (share of household expenditures devoted to energy spending)
Electricity Heat Water
World Bank 10-15% 3-5%
WHO 10%
UNECE 15%
UK gov’t 10% 3%
US gov’t 6% 2.5%
Affordability: How much household spending on energy is too much?
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Kyrgyzstan: Share of energy in household spending seems low . . .
What revolution??
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National Dushanbe
34%
26%
40%
32%
AveragePoorest quintile
Rural Other urban
35%32%
38%
55%AveragePoorest quintile
. . . While in Tajikistan, it seems very (too) high?
Share of household expenditures devoted to energy, 2009 data. Source: State Statistical Agency.
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What do people heat with? In Kyrgyzstan—electricity and coal (especially the poor)
Shares of household
energy spending on energy
sources (2009)
Source: National Statistical Committee
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Wood Electricity Dung Coal Other
40%
26%
17%13%
4%
44%
32%
10%12% 12%
2007 2009
Half the population heats with wood and dung . . . With impli-cations for health, deforesta-tion, gender, children
In Tajikistan: Much greater reliance on firewood (and dung)
Source: State Statistical Agency
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Energy, water, and social policy• Two key questions:– Can social policy mitigate household energy and
water insecurities?– Is social policy become better targeted?
• Answers: No, and no• Household energy insecurity can be reduced by:– Off-grid small hydro, other decentralized renewables– Energy efficiency
• Household water insecurity can be reduced by:– Reforms of communal services, local governance– Rural water, infrastructure projects financed by
central, local government budgets, donors
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What is to be done? Two key questions for the international community
• What does this research tell us?
• “Policy advising feast with an implementation capacity famine?” or “Let’s identify what works and scale it up”?
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What does this research tell us?• Evidentiary basis for understanding household
energy vulnerability much better . . .• . . . But there are still many open questions:– Are the shares of household expenditures devoted
to energy correct?• Support for national statistical offices?• Independent surveys, based on comparable
methodologies?• Willingness to pay?
– What are the implications of different composition of energy use?• Tajikistan: sustainable forestry?• Kyrgyzstan: social, environmental implications of coal?
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Emerging lessons from Tajikistan’s experience with small hydro
• Key obstacles:– Low electricity tariffs– Weak national capacity for construction,
maintenance of small hydro facilities– Regulatory/legal lacunae• Why should Barqi Tojik buy expensive, risky electricity
from small hydropower plants?• But—progress has been made:– Legal framework for feed-in-tariffs now in place– Trust fund for renewable energy can play “market
maker role”
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Thank you very much!
Бoльшoe Cпacибo!