household sector analysis in turkey · kenan alpdündar. central bank of the republic of turkey ....
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Kenan Alpdündar
CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY
HOUSEHOLD SECTOR ANALYSIS IN TURKEY
September 18-19, 2008
Romania
2
I. Why do we analyze the household sector ?
II. How do we analyze the household sector ?
AGENDA
3
Shares of Gross Loans and Securities Portfolio in Total Assets (%)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5512
.02
03.0
3
06.0
3
09.0
3
12.0
3
03.0
4
06.0
4
09.0
4
12.0
4
03.0
5
06.0
5
09.0
5
12.0
5
03.0
6
06.0
6
09.0
6
12.0
6
03.0
7
06.0
7
09.0
7
12.0
7
03.0
8
Gross Loans / Total Assets Securities Portfolio / Total Assets
The Importance of Household Sector Analysis
Source: BRSA-CBRT
4
Retail Loans (Excluding NPLs, Billion YTL)
The Importance of Household Sector Analysis
Source: CBRT
01020304050607080
12.0
203
.03
06.0
309
.03
12.0
303
.04
06.0
409
.04
12.0
403
.05
06.0
509
.05
12.0
503
.06
06.0
609
.06
12.0
603
.07
06.0
709
.07
12.0
703
.08
01020304050607080
Consumer Loans Credit Cards
5
Credit Card Balances of Deposit Banks and Balances That Incur Interest Charge (Billion YTL, %)
The Importance of Household Sector Analysis
Source: CBRT
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
09.0
5
12.0
5
03.0
6
06.0
6
09.0
6
12.0
6
03.0
7
06.0
7
09.0
7
12.0
7
03.0
8
051015202530354045
Credit Card Balances Incurring Interest Charge (a)Credit Cards (b)Ratio (Right-hand Axis) (a/b)
6
Source: BRSA-CBRT, CMB, CRA
The Importance of Household Sector Analysis
Ratio of YTL-FX Denominated Investment Instruments
1.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.8
12.0
3
03.0
4
06.0
4
09.0
4
12.0
4
03.0
5
06.0
5
09.0
5
12.0
5
03.0
6
06.0
6
09.0
6
12.0
6
03.0
7
06.0
7
09.0
7
12.0
7
03.0
8
Total YTL Instruments / FX Instruments
7
Source: CBRT-BRSA, TURKSTAT
Household Liabilities to GDP (%)
Household Sector Analysis
11.2
9.4
7.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
05 06 07
11.7
9.7
7.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
05 06 07
Source: CBRT-BRSA, TURKSTAT
Retail Loans to Household Consumption Expenditures (%)
8
Source: CBRT-BRSA
Decomposition of Household Debt
(%)
Household Sector Analysis
26.1 31.88 32.51 33.3
16.312.22 8.92 8.3
37.2 31.6228.80 27.8
20.4 24.27 29.77 30.6
01020304050
60708090
100
05 06 07 03.08
Housing Loans Vehicle Loans Credit Cards Other
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Source: FED, BOE, CBRT, IMF
Housing Loans
to GDP (%)
Household Sector Analysis
2006 2007
England 82.7 85.6
USA 73.6 74.7
Turkey 3.1 3.8
10
Household Sector Analysis
Source: CBRT
NPL Ratios
(%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Consumer Loans Credit Cards Retail Loans
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Household Disposable Income, Indebtedness and Interest Payments
(Million YTL)
Household Sector Analysis
Source: CBRT-BRSA, TURKSTAT, SPO
2004 2005 2006 2007Household Interest Payments 7,219 10,209 12,109 15,576Household Debt 28,073 50,033 73,537 100,564Household Disposable Income 218,752 255,640 292,775 340,786Interest Payments / Disposable Income (%) 3.3 4.0 4.1 4.6Debt / Disposable Income (%) 12.8 19.6 25.1 29.5
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Source: BRSA-CBRT, CMB, CRA
Household Sector AnalysisHouseholds’
Financial Assets and Liabilities (Billion YTL, %)
32.126.3
32.2
22.8
0255075
100125150175200225250275300325350
05 06 07 03.085101520253035404550
Tot al Liabilit ies Tot al Asset s Household Liabilit ies/ Asset s (Right -hand Axis)
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By our Financial Stability Reports,
On the side of the banking sector, we aim at increasing awareness about their exposure to the household sector due to mostly fixed rate consumer loans as well as drawing attention to the increasing indebtedness of households.
On the side of households, we invite the households to be cautious about their FX-indexed borrowings and the potential FX risk especially if they don’t have FX income as well as about the proper usage of credit cards.
CBRT also cooperates with Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency on obtaining credits data and exchanges information. Also, a “Survey of Household Finances” by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey is underway, which will enable us to assess household sector more thoroughly.
In Conclusion
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THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION!
CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUCLIC OF TURKEY