housing forecast 2014 local stats presentation
DESCRIPTION
San Antonio Board of Realtors 2014 Housing Forecast presentationTRANSCRIPT
The Local Market 2013 January – November Statistics
Number
of Sales
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
ANNUAL SALES TRENDS (JANUARY – NOVEMBER)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source:
MLS
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE
RANGE ($0-$199,999 – JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
# of
Sales
Source:
MLS
2011
2012
2013
11,172
11,993
13,317
NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE
RANGE ($200,000 - $499,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000# of
Sales
Source:
MLS
2011
2012
2013
4,491
5,649
7,388
NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE
RANGE ($500,000 AND ABOVE
JANUARY thru NOVEMBER)
# of
Sales
Source:
MLS
2011
2012
2013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
556 621
881
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
MONTHS OF INVENTORY BY YEAR (Includes Single-Family & Condos/Townhomes)
Months
of
Inventory
Source: Texas A&M Real
Estate Research Center Month
2010
2011
2012
2013
Nov. 2013 –
Months of
Inventory:
4.2 months
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Jan Feb Mar April May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov
2010
2011
2012
2013
NUMBER OF MONTHLY ACTIVE
LISTINGS BY YEAR
Month
# of
Active
Listings
Source:
MLS
Nov. 2013 –
Number of
Active
Listings is
8,036
Days on Market (November)
Source:
MLS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Nov '10 Nov '11 Nov '12 Nov '13
98 98
83
75
YTD MEDIAN SALES PRICE PER YEAR (JAN - NOV)
Source:
MLS
$135,000
$140,000
$145,000
$150,000
$155,000
$160,000
$165,000
$170,000
$175,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Top 5 Areas for Growth – Sales & Median
Prices by Year (January – November)
Area # Sales
2011
# Sales
2012
# Sales
2013
Median
Price 2011
Median
Price 2012
Median
Price 2013
0200 878 925 1,124 $120,250 $122,000 $132,000
0300 738 866 1,092 $121,750 $123,000 $130,000
1700 863 837 980 $95,000 $105,000 $112,200
0400 705 855 941 $142,000 $143,200 $150,000
2705 839 830 995 $167,900 $175,366 $185,000
PRICE/SQ. FT. PER AREA
January - November
Subdivision # Sales
2011
# Sales
2012
# Sales
2013
Price/Sq
Ft 2011
Price/Sq
Ft 2012
Price/Sq
Ft 2013
Alamo
Heights
119 125 141 $191.08 $194.56 $205.59
Alamo
Ranch
206 277 320 $93.29 $91.22 $97.29
Anaqua
Springs
34 31 45 $126.36 $106.07 $158.68
Apple
Creek
36 26 29 $79.13 $79.33 $85.36
Bentley
Manor
14 11 15 $201.62 $197.33 $193.95
Burning
Tree
14 8 12 $83.06 $77.85 $81.08
Camino
Real
18 21 24 $105.80 $110.62 $107.33
Canyon
Springs
159 155 187 $102.99 $107.73 $110.53
PRICE/SQ. FT. PER AREA
January - November
Subdivision # Sales
2011
# Sales
2012
# Sales
2013
Price/Sq
Ft 2011
Price/Sq
Ft 2012
Price/Sq
Ft 2013
Carolina
Crossing
28 20 27 $71.85 $70.15 $79.39
Castle Hills 73 74 100 $85.66 $96.88 $95.99
Cedar
Springs
17 22 23 $77.55 $82.27 $85.27
Cibolo
Canyons
37 38 50 $99.70 $105.10 $109.55
Colonies
North
24 17 29 $77.92 $83.21 $83.63
Crownridge 16 27 35 $107.32 $104.81 $105.42
Deer Creek 25 29 45 $87.16 $89.63 $88.29
Deerfield 53 63 66 $114.32 $114.23 $112.62
Dellview 42 51 59 $67.93 $64.72 $67.63
Dover 53 53 63 $49.52 $49.79 $53.76
PRICE/SQ. FT. PER AREA
January - November
Subdivision # Sales
2011
# Sales
2012
# Sales
2013
Price/Sq
Ft 2011
Price/Sq
Ft 2012
Price/Sq
Ft 2013
Elm Creek 22 25 23 $115.20 $125.46 $126.13
Fair Oaks 100 134 161 $122.04 $120.50 $131.64
Garden
Ridge
22 29 15 $117.15 $119.62 $119.56
Government
Hill 9 9 13 $36.23 $46.88 $87.77
Harlandale 110 128 115 $44.10 $45.57 $49.64
Harmony
Hills
29 34 29 $79.62 $75.23 $82.00
Heritage
Park
73 82 106 $60.49 $59.72 $69.05
Highland
Hills
62 53 52 $49.22 $50.43 $53.35
Hollywood
Park
53 58 55 $105.11 $113.73 $113.79
PRICE/SQ. FT. PER AREA
January - November
Subdivision # Sales
2011
# Sales
2012
# Sales
2013
Price/Sq
Ft 2011
Price/Sq
Ft 2012
Price/Sq
Ft 2013
Hunters
Creek
36 44 51 $97.66 $104.27 $103.90
Inwood 55 66 58 $112.83 $113.15 $112.32
Lackland
Heights
14 8 11 $61.77 $50.18 $51.07
Legacy
Trails
9 19 20 $80.69 $75.88 $86.14
Longs
Creek
51 72 82 $63.27 $65.97 $70.76
Los
Angeles
Heights
61 68 67 $46.27 $45.55 $50.25
Mesa
Grande
17 20 19 $99.09 $98.23 $102.97
Monticello
Park
24 24 32 $84.16 $90.01 $90.82
PRICE/SQ. FT. PER AREA
January - November
Subdivision # Sales
2011
# Sales
2012
# Sales
2013
Price/Sq
Ft 2011
Price/Sq
Ft 2012
Price/Sq
Ft 2013
Northern
Hills
42 51 61 $67.04 $69.77 $73.62
Northwest
Crossing
123 110 145 $62.75 $63.77 $68.41
Oak Hills 7 16 18 $84.22 $89.80 $90.22
Oak
Meadows
2 2 2 $118.35 $91.29 $114.52
Oakmont
Downs
9 9 18 $82.64 $80.23 $75.48
Olmos
Park
37 38 46 $194.49 $190.51 $186.36
Olympia 34 46 59 $82.03 $83.62 $86.38
Redbird
Ranch
57 39 59 $79.71 $76.95 $83.51
Retama
Ridge
10 10 13 $68.50 $68.76 $73.91
PRICE/SQ. FT. PER AREA
January - November
Subdivision # Sales
2011
# Sales
2012
# Sales
2013
Price/Sq
Ft 2011
Price/Sq
Ft 2012
Price/Sq
Ft 2013
River Rock
Ranch
44 40 65 $103.54 $106.13 $117.46
Rogers
Ranch
82 110 113 $108.49 $115.15 $116.89
San Pedro
Hills
38 37 51 $80.77 $83.55 $89.03
Santa Fe 10 9 16 $91.56 $86.11 $103.47
Shavano
Park
35 33 46 $154.38 $152.38 $158.72
Sonoma
Ranch
96 108 119 $92.11 $96.47 $98.83
Sonterra 60 78 106 $104.55 $104.34 $108.43
Spring
Creek
47 54 62 $82.50 $78.42 $87.44
Spring
Vista
67 64 98 $69.02 $71.94 $72.53
PRICE/SQ. FT. PER AREA
January - November
Subdivision # Sales
2011
# Sales
2012
# Sales
2013
Price/Sq
Ft 2011
Price/Sq
Ft 2012
Price/Sq
Ft 2013
Steubing
Ranch
51 52 71 $79.29 $78.85 $83.64
Summerfield 20 27 18 $102.54 $102.25 $107.19
Terrell Hills 116 139 163 $145.32 $156.54 $169.14
Triana 17 32 33 $111.75 $111.30 $124.60
Two
Creeks
34 47 61 $94.09 $98.98 $99.25
Vineyards 2 1 0 $87.86 $94.59 $0.00
Windcrest 59 64 76 $65.32 $67.53 $72.90
Woodlake 119 109 112 $56.68 $58.87 $70.75
Woodlawn
Hills
5 6 3 $45.27 $67.65 $85.92
Woodstone 30 34 42 $60.77 $64.35 $65.80
Areas by Quadrant
NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE ($50,000 - $199,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Southwest Quadrant
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Source:
MLS
2011
2012
2013
# of
Sales
NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE ($50,000 - $199,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Southeast Quadrant
Source:
MLS
2011
2012
2013
# of
Sales
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE ($50,000 - $199,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Northeast Quadrant
Source:
MLS
2011
2012
2013
# of
Sales
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE ($50,000 - $199,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Northwest Quadrant
Source:
MLS
2011
2012
2013
# of
Sales
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE ($200,000 - $499,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Southwest Quadrant
Source:
MLS
2011
2012
2013
# of
Sales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE ($200,000 - $499,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Southeast Quadrant
Source:
MLS
2011
2012
2013
# of
Sales
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE ($200,000 - $499,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Northeast Quadrant
Source:
MLS
2011
2012
2013
# of
Sales
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE ($200,000 - $499,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Northwest Quadrant
Source:
MLS
2011
2012
2013
# of
Sales
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE ($500,000 and Up - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Southwest Quadrant
Source:
MLS
2011
2012
2013
# of
Sales
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE ($500,000 and Up - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Southeast Quadrant
Source:
MLS
2011
2012
2013
# of
Sales
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE ($500,000 and Up - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Northeast Quadrant
Source:
MLS
2011
2012
2013
# of
Sales
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE ($500,000 and Up - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Northwest Quadrant
Source:
MLS
2011
2012
2013
# of
Sales
Area by Finance Type (2012)
MLS Area Cash Conventional FHA VA
1001 11% 53% 18% 17%
1002 11% 62% 12% 16%
1003 31% 63% 2% 4%
1004 5% 58% 12% 25%
1005 11% 62% 10% 17%
1006 15% 60% 12% 13%
1100 41% 30% 19% 10%
1200 88% 5% 6% 1%
1300 29% 49% 14% 7%
1400 15% 33% 35% 17%
1500 26% 22% 37% 15%
1600 24% 20% 32% 25%
Area by Finance Type (2012) - Continued
MLS Area Cash Conventional FHA VA
1700 28% 19% 28% 24%
1801 13% 56% 17% 14%
1802 11% 44% 25% 19%
1803 12% 54% 17% 16%
1804 11% 41% 21% 26%
1900 44% 10% 36% 9%
2001 14% 14% 47% 25%
2002 17% 33% 39% 11%
2003 17% 28% 44% 11%
2004 27% 13% 53% 7%
2100 54% 9% 34% 3%
2200 62% 10% 24% 4%
2301 9% 17% 47% 28%
Area by Finance Type (2012) - Continued
MLS Area Cash Conventional FHA VA
2302 19% 44% 31% 6%
2303 50% 30% 20% 0%
2304 38% 17% 30% 16%
2400 28% 36% 17% 18%
2501 41% 59% 0% 0%
2502 15% 73% 5% 8%
2503 23% 54% 8% 15%
2504 29% 49% 18% 4%
2505 33% 60% 0% 7%
2506 23% 53% 9% 15%
2507 8% 75% 8% 8%
2508 21% 48% 24% 7%
2509 25% 50% 0% 25%
Area by Finance Type (2012) - Continued
MLS Area Cash Conventional FHA VA
2510 100% 0% 0% 0%
2600 20% 50% 16% 13%
2701 47% 12% 29% 12%
2702 44% 31% 25% 0%
2703 42% 25% 25% 8%
2704 14% 71% 7% 7%
2705 10% 27% 26% 36%
2706 10% 38% 33% 19%
2707 24% 34% 28% 14%
2708 20% 40% 20% 20%
2709 32% 47% 16% 5%
2800 12% 44% 26% 18%
2900 26% 33% 31% 10%
Area by Finance Type (2012) - Continued
MLS Area Cash Conventional FHA VA
3000 25% 38% 17% 21%
3100 39% 38% 18% 5%
0101 5% 14% 25% 56%
0102 8% 31% 18% 42%
0103 12% 29% 30% 29%
0104 5% 29% 16% 50%
0105 6% 36% 25% 33%
0200 17% 22% 36% 25%
0300 17% 21% 45% 17%
0400 20% 32% 36% 12%
0500 19% 45% 24% 13%
0600 14% 55% 20% 11%
0700 54% 10% 32% 5%
0800 39% 19% 35% 8%
0900 38% 27% 30% 5%
Area by Finance Type (2013)
MLS Area Cash Conventional FHA VA
1001 10% 61% 14% 15%
1002 10% 68% 10% 12%
1003 18% 77% 0% 5%
1004 13% 62% 10% 15%
1005 14% 60% 12% 14%
1006 13% 63% 11% 13%
1100 36% 50% 11% 3%
1200 86% 4% 8% 2%
1300 26% 56% 10% 8%
1400 18% 36% 29% 17%
1500 27% 26% 35% 13%
1600 23% 23% 32% 22%
Area by Finance Type (2013) - Continued
MLS Area Cash Conventional FHA VA
1700 28% 17% 26% 28%
1801 13% 60% 12% 16%
1802 9% 47% 25% 19%
1803 12% 55% 14% 19%
1804 10% 48% 18% 23%
1900 41% 12% 39% 8%
2001 11% 20% 45% 24%
2002 14% 51% 19% 16%
2003 25% 25% 44% 6%
2004 26% 15% 44% 15%
2100 42% 11% 39% 8%
2200 61% 8% 29% 3%
2301 13% 17% 35% 35%
Area by Finance Type (2013) - Continued
MLS Area Cash Conventional FHA VA
2302 33% 13% 40% 13%
2303 50% 40% 10% 0%
2304 20% 21% 37% 22%
2400 31% 45% 13% 12%
2501 31% 59% 8% 3%
2502 22% 60% 2% 16%
2503 19% 52% 13% 16%
2504 31% 49% 16% 4%
2505 21% 58% 8% 13%
2506 10% 70% 5% 14%
2507 17% 67% 4% 13%
2508 28% 54% 10% 7%
2509 67% 0% 33% 0%
Area by Finance Type (2013) - Continued
MLS Area Cash Conventional FHA VA
2510 20% 80% 0% 0%
2600 19% 55% 12% 14%
2701 50% 20% 30% 0%
2702 52% 24% 20% 4%
2703 23% 33% 33% 10%
2704 27% 27% 22% 22%
2705 13% 31% 17% 39%
2706 22% 50% 22% 6%
2707 18% 43% 23% 17%
2708 19% 50% 23% 8%
2709 17% 50% 10% 23%
2800 13% 38% 23% 26%
2900 29% 32% 26% 12%
Area by Finance Type (2013) - Continued
MLS Area Cash Conventional FHA VA
3000 13% 39% 24% 24%
3100 36% 41% 17% 6%
0101 5% 14% 20% 60%
0102 12% 31% 17% 39%
0103 12% 34% 31% 23%
0104 10% 27% 15% 47%
0105 12% 38% 20% 29%
0200 18% 21% 36% 25%
0300 20% 27% 37% 16%
0400 18% 40% 30% 12%
0500 20% 49% 18% 13%
0600 17% 56% 16% 11%
0700 57% 13% 26% 4%
0800 38% 23% 35% 5%
0900 35% 36% 24% 6%
Eagle Ford Shale - Housing Growth
Eagle Ford Shale Growth – Area 2800
Number of Sales (Jan-Nov)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Source:
MLS
# of
Sales
2011
2012
2013
$200,000
$205,000
$210,000
$215,000
$220,000
$225,000
$230,000
$235,000
$240,000
$245,000
Eagle Ford Shale Growth – Area 2800
Median Price (Jan-Nov)
Source:
MLS
Price
2011
2012
2013
152
154
156
158
160
162
164
Eagle Ford Shale Growth – Area 2900
Number of Sales (Jan-Nov)
Source:
MLS
# of
Sales
2011
2012
2013
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
Eagle Ford Shale Growth – Area 2900
Median Price (Jan-Nov)
Source:
MLS
Price
2011
2012
2013
2013 January – November Statistics
The Local Market