Housing in 2010Housing in 2010

Malcolm RiggMalcolm Rigg

DirectorDirector

Policy Studies InstitutePolicy Studies Institute

Why housing?Why housing?

Basic needBasic need Indicator of a well-Indicator of a well-

governed societygoverned societyTouchstone of a fair societyTouchstone of a fair societyTends to slip beneath the Tends to slip beneath the

policy radarpolicy radar

Evaluating the reportEvaluating the report

Does it:Does it:Provide useful numbers?Provide useful numbers?Identify important issues?Identify important issues?Offer helpful conceptual Offer helpful conceptual tools?tools?

Help in making sense of the Help in making sense of the whole?whole?

Useful numbers on Useful numbers on housing?housing?

Additional 2.6m households (4.6%)Additional 2.6m households (4.6%)? Nearer 9% actual growth (top end of Nearer 9% actual growth (top end of

scenario)scenario) Large shift in household composition to Large shift in household composition to

single person households – housing units single person households – housing units need to grow faster than populationneed to grow faster than population

25% of households would require 25% of households would require rented accommodation (much of it rented accommodation (much of it subsidised)subsidised)

Identify important policy Identify important policy issues?issues?

Mortgage tax reliefMortgage tax relief Interest ratesInterest rates Local Government Local Government

financefinance Council house Council house

buildingbuilding Council house salesCouncil house sales Place & spacePlace & space

Tenants & landlords Tenants & landlords rightsrights

Planning regimesPlanning regimes Housing stock Housing stock

conditioncondition Environmental Environmental ? Market Market

imperfections?imperfections?? Financial Financial

regulation?regulation?

Offers useful conceptual Offers useful conceptual tools?tools?

Housing particularly Housing particularly sensitive to policy sensitive to policy perspectivesperspectivesMarket driven policiesMarket driven policiesInterventionist policiesInterventionist policiesEnvironmental concernsEnvironmental concerns

What’s happened to What’s happened to social (subsidised) social (subsidised)

housing? housing? Heavy reliance on market based Heavy reliance on market based

policiespolicies Waiting lists continued to grow Waiting lists continued to grow

(1.8m in 2010)(1.8m in 2010) Some shift from market based Some shift from market based

policies back towards intervention policies back towards intervention since failures apparent in market since failures apparent in market based policiesbased policies

What’s happened to What’s happened to private sector housing? private sector housing?

Housing shortages continueHousing shortages continue Prices fuelled by easier Prices fuelled by easier

access to high mortgagesaccess to high mortgages In 2006 average house prices six In 2006 average house prices six

times annual salarytimes annual salary

Private sector renting as Private sector renting as expensive as buyingexpensive as buying

Help in making sense of the Help in making sense of the whole?whole?

ConclusionsConclusions

Evidence informed policies?Evidence informed policies? 2010 Report identified2010 Report identified

key housing issueskey housing issueskey policy mechanismskey policy mechanismssensitivities of housing to policy sensitivities of housing to policy

perspectivesperspectives Need for deeper analysis of policy Need for deeper analysis of policy

mechanisms?mechanisms?