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Housing Market Outlook

2019 Lakewood Developers Forum

ANNIE RADECKI (971) 279-7379

[email protected]

Presented June 13, 2019

Purpose: To give our clients the confidence

needed to profitably build and finance the best

places to live.

Vision: To be the most trusted and respected U.S. housing market analysts and consultants. Mission: To help executives make informed housing industry investment decisions.

Private Builder

14%

Public Builder 12%

Developer 9%

Investment Fund 13%

Private Equity 19%

Building Products

15% Lender

5%

SingleFamily Rental

4%

Other 9%

Our 200+ Research Subscribers Help Us Get it Right

JBREC RESEARCH MEMBERSHIP DISTRIBUTION

Goal: Clarity

A New View on Generations

Huge Demographic Shifts

Effect on the Housing Market

72-year-old 58-year-old

1946 1964 B A B Y B O O M E R S

Boomer

What Do These People Have in Common?

38-year-old 19-year-old

1980 2000 M I L L E N N I A L S

Millennial

What Do These People Have in Common?

The Solution: More Clarity

Define the Generations by Decade Born to Simplify Your Decision Making 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N

US Born Foreign Born

Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M

39 M 43 M

41 M

44 M 45 M

42 M

11 M

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections


Those Born in the 1930s Learned to Save Early in Life 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N


Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

11 M

1930s Savers Age 79-88

2.4%

2.1%

1.9%

1.5%

1.3% 1.3%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Retirees Had Double the Economic Growth That Their Children Have Had

AV E R A G E G D P G R O W T H P E R P E R S O N — P R I M E W O R K I N G Y E A R S ( 2 5 - 5 4 )

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data *Prime working years not yet complete

RE

AL

G

DP

G

RO

WT

H

G E N E R A T I O N

1960s Equalers* 1970s Balancers* 1950s Innovators 1940s Achievers 1980s Sharers* 1930s Savers


The High-Achieving Earliest Boomers Have Retired 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N


Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M

11 M


1940s Achievers Age 69-78

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

197

5

197

6

197

7

197

8

197

9

198

0

198

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

The Achievers Led the Decline in Stay-at-Home Moms

S H A R E O F M O M S A G E D 2 5 - 3 4 W H O S TAY AT H O M E F U L L - T I M E

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS; colors based on a 30-year-old mother

SH

AR

E

OF

M

OT

HE

RS

Y E A R

48%

24%

27%


The Innovative Boomers Are Now Retiring in Droves 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N


Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M

39 M

11 M



1950s Innovators Age 59-68

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

196

0

196

1

196

2

196

3

196

4

196

5

196

6

196

7

196

8

196

9

197

0

197

1

197

2

197

3

197

4

197

5

197

6

197

7

197

8

197

9

198

0

198

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7P

201

8P

201

9P

202

0P

202

1P

202

2P

202

3P

202

4P

202

5P

Surging Retirement Will Slow Economy and Create New Types of Home Demand

6 5 + P O P U L AT I O N B Y D E C A D E O F B I R T H

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Population Estimates and 2014 National Projections

65

+

PO

PU

LA

TI

ON

(

MI

LL

IO

NS

)

Y E A R

Pre 1930s 1930s Savers 1940s Achievers 1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers

48 M

65 M

Retirement Surge Will Lead to Slower Rate of Job Creation, Higher Incomes G R O W T H O F U S R E S I D E N T P O P U L AT I O N A G E S 2 0 - 6 4

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC calculations using US Census Bureau population estimates (1981–2016) and 2018 national projections (2017–2025)

Y E A R

AN

NU

AL

G

RW

OT

H

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%194

1

19

43

194

5

194

7

194

9

195

1

195

3

195

5

195

7

195

9

196

1

196

3

19

65

196

7

196

9

197

1

197

3

197

5

197

7

197

9

198

1

198

3

198

5

19

87

198

9

199

1

199

3

199

5

199

7

199

9

200

1

200

3

200

5

200

7

20

09

201

1

201

3

201

5

201

7P

201

9P

202

1P

202

3P

202

5P


More 1960s-Born Women Graduated College Than Men 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N


Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M

39 M 43 M

11 M




1960s Equalers Age 49-58

Women Earn 58% of All College Degrees Today P E R C E N T O F A L L B A C H E L O R ’ S A N D M A S T E R ’ S D E G R E E S C O N F E R R E D

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of National Center for Education Statistics data

1970

58% 58% 2016

Rising DICE – Dual-Income, College Educated D I C E S H A R E O F A L L M A R R I E D / PA R T N E R E D H O U S E H O L D S

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Current Population Survey ASEC via IPUMS-CPS

2%

5%

8%

11%

14%

17%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016SH

AR

E

OF

A

LL

M

AR

RI

ED

/P

AR

TN

ER

ED

H

OU

SE

HO

LD

S

Y E A R

Surprising Societal Shift: Rising Renters for Empty Nesters R E N T E R S H I P R AT E B Y A G E , 4 5 - 6 4

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

20%

21%

22%

23%

24%

25%

26%

27%

28%

29%1

98

2

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

RE

NT

ER

SH

IP

R

AT

E

Y E A R

21.3% 20.9%

27.8%


1970s Balancers Shifted the Definition of Success to Include Success at Home 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N


Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M

39 M 43 M

41 M

11 M





1970s Balancers Age 39-48

37%

35%

42%

25%

27%

29%

31%

33%

35%

37%

39%

41%

43%

1970s Balancer Homeownership at Their 10-Year High School Reunion

H O M E O W N E R S H I P R AT E F O R 2 5 - 2 9 Y E A R - O L D S

Sources: US Census Bureau Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

G E N E R A T I O N

6% above

normal at age 28

1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers 1970s Balancers

1970s Balancer Homeownership at Their 20-Year High School Reunion

H O M E O W N E R S H I P R AT E F O R 3 5 - 3 9 Y E A R - O L D S

Sources: US Census Bureau Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

G E N E R A T I O N

61%

63%

52%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

10% below

normal at age 38

1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers 1970s Balancers

Dual-Income Households Peaked in 2000 F E M A L E L A B O R F O R C E PA R T I C I PAT I O N R AT E , A G E S 2 0 – 6 4

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Labor Statistics data; color-coded based on the year a generation turns 20

%

OF

2

0–

64

Y

EA

R-

OL

D

WO

ME

N

WH

O W

OR

K

Y E A R

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

195

0

195

2

195

4

195

6

195

8

196

0

196

2

196

4

196

6

196

8

197

0

197

2

197

4

197

6

197

8

198

0

198

2

198

4

198

6

198

8

199

0

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

200

0

200

2

200

4

200

6

200

8

201

0

201

2

201

4

201

6

1930s Savers

1940s Achievers

1950s Innovators

1960s Equalers

1970s Balancers

1980s Sharers

1990s Connectors

71%

37% 42%

50%

61%

69% 73% 71%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Almost 13% of America Now Rents a Single-Family Home

S I N G L E - FA M I LY R E N TA L H O M E S A S A P E R C E N T O F T O TA L H O U S E H O L D S

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data from American Community Survey; years are based on Q3

PE

RC

EN

T

OF

T

OT

AL

H

OU

SE

HO

LD

S

Y E A R


1980s Sharers Have Led the Disruptive Shift to a Sharing Economy 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N


Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M

39 M 43 M

41 M

44 M

11 M






1980s Sharers Age 29-38

The 1980s Sharers Have Quintupled Student Debt Since 2004

S T U D E N T L O A N S O U T S TA N D I N G ( T R I L L I O N S )

Sources: New York Federal Reserve Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

$260 billion

$1.49

Trillion 2004 2019

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

19

68

19

69

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Marriage and Kids Continue to Happen Later in Life

P E R C E N T O F 2 5 – 2 9 Y E A R - O L D S S I N G L E A N D W I T H O U T C H I L D R E N

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS

PE

RC

EN

T

OF

A

LL

2

5–

29

Y

EA

R

OL

DS

Y E A R

1970s Balancers 1980s Sharers

18%

27%

39% 43%

56%

1940s Achievers 1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers

46%


1990s Connectors Use Their Phones Whenever Possible 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N


Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M

39 M 43 M

41 M

44 M 45 M

11 M







1990s Connectors Age 19-28

Demographics Easily Support 12.5 Million More Households Over 10 Years

N E T C H A N G E I N H O U S E H O L D S B Y D E C A D E B O R N , 2 0 1 6 – 2 0 2 5 ( M I L L I O N S )

Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

NE

T

CH

AN

GE

I

N

HO

US

EH

OL

DS

(

MI

LL

IO

NS

)

-4.9 -3.8

-1.4 -0.1

1.6

4.3

14.0

5.9

1930s

Savers

1940s

Achievers

1950s

Innovators

1960s

Equalers

1970s

Balancers

1980s

Sharers

1990s

Connectors

2000s

Globals

13.3 Million Losses

25.8 Million Gains


The Oldest 2000s Globals are Just Entering Adulthood 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N


Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M

39 M 43 M

41 M

44 M 45 M

42 M

11 M




1990s Connectors

Age 19-28 1940s Achievers

Age 69-78



2000s Globals Age 9-18

The Economy Impacts Each Life Stage Differently

Childhood Early Career Family Formation Late Career Retirement

Technologies Impact Each Generation Differently Too

VS

New Tech (and also Labor Constraints) are Advancing Construction Methods

Goal: Clarity

A New View on Generations

Huge Demographic Shifts

Effect on the Housing Market

Short-Term Outlook: Most Remain Normal

J B R E C S A L E S C O N D I T I O N S R AT I N G F O R 5 0 L A R G E S T M A R K E T S

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Pub: May-19)

34%

64%

2%

HCRI Medium-Term Outlook: Most Normal Risk J B R E C H O U S I N G C Y C L E R I S K I N D E X ™ F O R 5 0 L A R G E S T M A R K E T S

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Pub: May-19)

36%

50%

12%

2%

*Our Housing Cycle Risk

Index measures the health

of the underlying market

fundamentals (demand,

supply, and affordability)

and is a valuable tool for

gauging medium-term

investment risk within a

housing market.

-8% -8%

-7% -1%

0% 0%

1% 2%

4% 5%

8% 10%

11% 11%

15% 20% 21%

23% 24%

30% 33% 34%

35% 35%

36% 40%

49% 54% 54%

56% 65%

69% 74%

77%

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Chicago**Las Vegas

Riverside-San Bern.Sacramento

Washington, DCOrlandoMiami*

New York*Phoenix

Orange CountyPhiladelphia

San DiegoLos Angeles*JacksonvilleMinneapolis

BostonWeighted Average

East Bay Area*TacomaAtlanta

CharlotteIndianapolis

Raleigh-Durham**Portland

Salt Lake CitySeattle*

San AntonioSan Jose

San Francisco**Houston

NashvilleAustin

Dallas*Denver

. Peak BHVI values from 2002–2008 2. Bay Area, CA is composed of San Francisco and San Jose MSAs. *Metro division **Combination of metro divisions.

Seattle and Tacoma Near the Top of Total Price Appreciation B U R N S H O M E VA L U E I N D E X ™ P E R C E N T A B O V E / B E L O W P E A K

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

MA

JO

R

HO

US

IN

G

MA

RK

ET

P E R C E N T A B O V E / B E L O W P E A K

Markets with Lower Priced Homes Still Appreciating B U R N S H O M E VA L U E I N D E X ( Y O Y C H A N G E )

-6% -3%

-1% 0%

0% 1%

1% 1%

2% 3%

3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

3% 4%

4% 4% 4% 4% 4%

4% 5%

5% 5% 5%

6% 6%

6% 7% 7%

7%

-7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

San JoseSan Francisco**

Seattle*East Bay Area*Orange County

San DiegoLos Angeles*

PortlandWashington, DC

BostonUnited States

New York*Dallas*

SacramentoChicago**

DenverRiverside-San Bern.

Miami*Philadelphia

HoustonAustin

MinneapolisOrlando

Las VegasSan AntonioJacksonville

PhoenixTacoma

NashvilleRaleigh-Durham**

CharlotteAtlanta

IndianapolisSalt Lake City

YOY % change (May 2019)

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: May-19, Pub: Jun-19) *Metro division **Combination of metro divisions (except Raleigh-Durham, which is a combination of metros)

MA

JO

R

HO

US

IN

G

MA

RK

ET

Rank Market

1 Tacoma* 2.1% (10) 5.5% (2) 6.1% (2)

2 Tucson 1.4% (19) 6.3% (1) 6.4% (1)

3 Reno 5.8% (1) 4.6% (8) 4.4% (12)

4 Fresno 3.9% (2) 3.6% (18) 5.6% (4)

5 Fort Worth* 1.9% (11) 3.7% (17) 5.8% (3)

6 Bakersfield 2.3% (8) 3.5% (20) 5.1% (6)

7 Sacramento 2.8% (4) 4.5% (9) 3.0% (20)

8 Birmingham 1.7% (13) 3.3% (23) 4.6% (9)

9 West Palm Beach* 2.5% (7) 2.6% (29) 3.5% (15)

10 Minneapolis 0.0% (43) 5.1% (5) 5.1% (7)

Employment

Growth YOY %

Mar-19

Burns Home

Value Index™

YOY Growth %

Apr-19

Burns Single-

Family Rent

Index™ YOY

Growth %

Mar-19

Tacoma is a Top Secondary Single Family Rental Market M A R K E T R A N K I N G O F 6 3 S E C O N D A R Y M A R K E T S

JBREC Current Metro Ranking Matrix JBREC Future Metro Ranking Matrix

*Metropolitan division **Combination of metropolitan divisions

Rank Market

1 Minneapolis 1.3% (5) 2.8% (5)

2 Fort Worth* 1.5% (3) 2.7% (8)

3 Modesto 0.6% (12) 2.9% (3)

4 Reno 0.2% (22) 3.2% (1)

5 Sacramento 0.2% (20) 2.7% (7)

6 Tucson -0.1% (28) 2.9% (2)

7 Vallejo-Fairfield 0.0% (25) 2.8% (4)

8 Boston 1.0% (7) 2.2% (18)

9 Tacoma* 0.4% (16) 2.5% (13)

10 Wash. DC (MSA) 1.8% (1) 2.0% (23)

Single-Family Rent

Annual Average

Forecasted Growth

2019P–2022P

Burns Home Value

Index™ Annual

Average Forecasted

Growth

2019P–2022P

37% 29%

26% 24%

22% 21%

20% 19%

19% 19% 19%

18% 17%

16% 15%

15% 14% 14%

13% 13%

13% 12%

11% 10% 10% 10%

9% 9%

9% 8%

7% 6%

5% 4%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

AustinNashville

Dallas*San Antonio

OrlandoDenver

Salt Lake CityHouston

CharlotteSan Francisco**

Raleigh-Durham**Seattle*

Riverside-San Bern.Portland

AtlantaNew York*

Miami*Tacoma*

IndianapolisSan Diego

JacksonvillePhoenix

East Bay Area*Sacramento

Washington, DCLas Vegas

US NationalBoston

Orange CountyMinneapolis

San JoseLos Angeles*Philadelphia

Chicago**

Sources: BLS; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: Mar-19, Pub: May-19)

Note: This chart displays the most recent month vs. the same month in peak years. *Metro division **Combination of metro divisions (except Raleigh-Durham,

which is a combination of metros)

Note: The working age population has grown at

different rates for each metro.

N E W B O O M T O W N S

AV E R A G E G R O W T H

S T I L L R E C O V E R I N G

S L O W G R O W T H

Job Growth Lags the New Tech Boomtowns C U R R E N T J O B S I N E X C E S S O F P R E - R E C E S S I O N P E A K

MA

JO

R

HO

US

IN

G

MA

RK

ET

Tacoma Price Appreciation to Slow B U R N S H O M E VA L U E I N D E X ™

Tacoma Market Risk Normal, but Rising J B R E C H O U S I N G C Y C L E R I S K I N D E X ™

Pub: Aug-18

Lower Interest Rates Help Affordability Y O Y PAY M E N T C H A N G E : TA C O M A E N T R Y L E V E L H O M E


Pub: Aug-18

Fewer Investors are in the Market I N V E S T O R P U R C H A S E S A N D T R A N S A C T I O N S B Y “ F L I P P E R S ”


Tacoma Metro Division (Pierce County) Seattle Metro Division (King and Snohomish Counties)

Seattle and Tacoma are Relatively Young

POPULATION BY DECADE BORN

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 Population Estimates

* 2010s represents population born from 2010-2017 only

Where are People Coming From?

UHAUL RENTAL PRICES

SEATTLE

DC SAN FRANCISCO

$2,765 NEW YORK

$1,584

$580

$2,372 $1,623

$4,390

Being Single has Allowed 1980s Sharers to Live Urban

U R B A N S H A R E O F H O U S E H O L D G R O W T H

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

SH

AR

E

OF

H

OU

SE

HO

LD

G

RO

WT

H

D E C A D E

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010–2015

21%

7%

10%

8%

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

55–64

Empty Nester Years

20–29

Young Adult Urban Years

Urban Demand Surged as Young Adult and Empty Nesters Population Grew

R E C E N T C H A N G E I N A D U LT P O P U L AT I O N B Y A G E , 2 0 0 5 – 2 0 1 5


NE

T

NU

MB

ER

O

F

PE

OP

LE

(

MI

LL

IO

NS

)

Y E A R

+10.2 M +4.6 M

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010–2015

But the Suburbs Still Capture Most of the Growth S U B U R B A N S H A R E O F H O U S E H O L D G R O W T H

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

SH

AR

E

OF

H

OU

SE

HO

LD

G

RO

WT

H

D E C A D E

71%

79%

69%

77%

64% of Americans live Suburban Most live in small, suburban cities

B I G

S U B U R B A N

C I T I E S

7.7%

Tacoma,

Washington

B O O M I N G

S U B U R B A N

C I T I E S

1.6%

Bellevue,

Washington

S M A L L

P R I N C I PA L

S U B U R B S

10.3%

Vancouver,

Washington

S M A L L

S U B U R B A N

C I T I E S

44.7%

Lakewood,

Washington

Suburban

•112 cities

•50K+

households

•Often called

the Secondary

Markets

32 small,

fast-growing

suburban

cities in

major MSAs

•520 small

cities

• Important

enough to be

included in the

MSA name

Remainder

of the MSAs

51

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Mill

ions

Urban is Slowing as Demand Shifts to Family and Retirement Years

F U T U R E C H A N G E I N A D U LT P O P U L AT I O N B Y A G E 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 2 5


NE

T

NU

MB

ER

O

F

PE

OP

LE

(

MI

LL

IO

NS

)

Y E A R

55–64

Empty Nester Years

20–29

Young Adult Urban Years

+0.4M -0.4M

• (many) Cities want it • Efficient use of land • More taxable income

with more residents/acre

• Consumers want it • Proximity to everything (experiences /

employment)

• Better affordability in a desirable location

• Builders and developers want it • Less risk in a desirable location • More homes/acre means higher

revenue/acre

Prepare for a Shift to High-Density

JBREC built a Life

Stage system based on

answers from the

Consumer Insights

survey.

The Life Stages of

consumers have unique

characteristics that

speak to the different

needs, wants, and

lifestyles through which

individuals pass over

the course of their lives.


Seattle-Tacoma Residents by Life Stage

Young Singles Single Parents Mature Singles

Young Couples Empty Nesters Active Adults

Young Family Family Plus Mature Family

6.8% 6.8% 7.5%

9% 21.3% 19.6%

15.6% 8.1% 5.3%

Centerhouse

by Trumark Homes

DesignLens™ Feature

February 2019

Ontario, CA

• Designed to be

attainable and

charming.

• Smaller homes with

square footage in all

the right places

• Small yards and

covered decks

Density Solutions for Young Singles

Source:

Young Singles

956 responses 873 responses Perch by Trumark Homes


December 2018

Dublin, CA

• Modern architecture

• 22 units/acre

• 1,521-1,758 square feet

• Private spaces on roof

decks

• Community parks

Density Solutions for Young Couples

Source:

Avid Townhomes by Intracorp

Bellevue, WA

• Modern homes

• ~25 units/acre

• Shared courtyards create community space

Young Couples

956 responses 873 responses Roshambo

by Garman Homes


January 2019

Wendell Falls Master Plan,

Raleigh, NC

• Simple architecture

(farmhouse style)

• Small yards

• 1,516 to 1,820 square

feet

Density Solutions for Young Families

Source:

Sakura Heights by Ichijo USA

DesignLens™ Feature Sept 2016

Kent, WA

• Modern homes

• Start at 1,928 square feet

• Homes have enhanced green features

Young Family

Spring Valley

Port Townsend, WA

• Small Cottage homes

centered around a

courtyard with a small

gathering space.

Density Solutions: Empty Nesters C O T TA G E H O M E S

Source: Ross Chapin Architects

Empty Nesters

ANNIE RADECKI (971) 279-7379

[email protected]

Presented June 13, 2019

housing market outlook - lakewood€¦ · housing market analysts and consultants. mission: to help...

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