HOW A SYDNEY MUM WITH

YOUNG KIDS USES THE WEATHER

TO NAVIGATE HER LIFE... (AND FASHION CHOICES).

BY CARLA KEAYJANUARY 2019

IT STARTED WITH A JACKET…

A GORGEOUS WINTER CAPE-STYLE JACKET.I bought it 6 years ago in Italy and I 100% look like this in it…

YES, it was on the expensive side. But it is a classic!

And I was going to wear it all the time! And I did for the first year. And I’m sure I did for the next…

But then I noticed I was getting less and less of an opportunity to wear this gorgeous winter jacket.

Where had the cold, wintery, cape-wearing weather gone?!

SO I LOOKED AT THE DATA…And lo and behold! The number of cold, wintery, cape-wearing weather days in Sydney has DECREASED in the last couple of years.

Number of winter cape-wearing days per year (16°C or below)

SHOWWW ME THE FORECAST!

It got me thinking about how much I think about the weather…

ALLLL THE TIME. I’m obsessed with knowing what the forecast will be over the coming week. The BOM Sydney website is my best friend.

Was I always like this? No actually!

It turns out it’s a strange side-effect of having kids.

SO, HERE IS HOW A SYDNEY MUM

WITH YOUNG KIDS USES THE

WEATHER TO NAVIGATE HER LIFE... (AND FASHION CHOICES).

THE DATA• I sourced 6 years of historical data (2013-2018) from my old friend The Australian Government

Bureau of Meteorology: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/

• The data is from the Central Sydney Weather Station (#66062) and is at day level. The data was generally clean (with only a few NULLs which have been left in) but needed to be unioned by year.

• I created a second version of the Sydney Weather data at month level (via SQL query) in order to join it with other data sources used in this analysis.

• Some metrics such as ‘windspeed’ and ‘hours of sunshine’ were only available for 2018; therefore analysis was constrained to a 1 year review where these metrics were in focus.

• Otherwise the majority of analysis considers average rainfall and maximum temperatures over the entire 6 year timeframe.

• All temperatures are in °Celsius and utilise Max Daily Temperature unless otherwise specified.

• I created the following calculated fields in Tableau to further-interrogate the data: Rainy vs Dry, Rain categorisation, School Holiday periods, Optimal Washing Weather categories, Weekends.

GENERAL WEATHER DEFINITIONS*Rest assured, I used a consistent method.

Winter-cape wearing weather: Max temperature 16°C or under, between June and August

Kids jacket-wearing weather: Max temperature 19°C or under, in any month

Summery days in winter Max temperature 22°C or over, with 4+ hours of sunshine, between June - August

Beach-going days Max temperature between 25 and 33°C , with no rain, in any month

Perfect autumn days Max temperature between 19-22°C, with zero rainfall, between March and May

Rainy days Days with over 0.1 mm rainfall*, in any month

*For full list of data definitions and categorisations, see Appendix

A YEAR IN THE LIFE

A PICTURE OF TYPICAL SYDNEY TEMPERATURES

Oh there you are, Autumn! Only 2 months late…

Finally, some cape-wearing weather...

… in between t-shirt weather.

Ok Summer, I love you, but really running out of wardrobe options at this point.

Average Max Temperature per day over the last 6 years (2013-2018)

At the beach in Winter! Suck it, Melbourne friends!

Spring is really pretty much Summer

Average Max Temperature per day over the last 6 years (2013-2018)

Avg temp per month

23.5° Average annual temperature.

54%

43.4°

January

135Sunny days (no rain and >=5 hours sunshine.

Hottest temperature in 2018 (occurred in January)

Rainy days in an average year. Melbourne has 140 and Brisbane has 124*.

All averages over a 6 year period.*See Appendix for Capital City comparison

Hottest month of the year with an average temperature of 27.8°

JuneColdest month of the year with an average temperature of 18.5°

HERE’S WHAT IT REALLY MEANS…

135The number of rainy day indoor activities I’ll have to think of each year.

37%

10

62

25

11

Proportion of the year where I’ll have to use the clothes dryer.

The number of perfect, Instagrammableautumn days. (See appendix)

The number of days I’ll probably argue with my 4 year old about putting on his jacket.

The number of perfect beach weekends.

The number of summery days in winter where I can lord it over my friends who live overseas or in Melbourne.

*All averages over a 6 year period.

RAINY DAYS

HOW MANY TIMES WILL WE WATCH MOANA IN AN AVERAGE YEAR?

Rainy days are a PAAAIN! YES they’re good for the farmers. YES they’re good for my herb garden. And YES I quite enjoyed using my lovely Oroton umbrella until I left it in a taxi 2 years ago.

BUT… as a parent, rainy days mean thinking of indoor activities.

125In 2018 we had 125 days with some rainfall

(slightly below the 6 year average of 135 days).

But it’s still literally 1/3 of the year that we will be inside, likely watching a Disney movie, with is

99% likely to be Moana.

RAIN CATEGORIES AND WHAT THEY MEAN

*Categorisations

are from the

Bureau of

Meteorology and

are based on mm

precipitation per

day. See

Appendix.

LIGHT RAIN: Small proportion of time indoors; park / other outdoor time still very viable possibility.

VIOLENT RAIN: 100% Moana

MODERATE RAIN: 20% enjoyable splashing in puddles with gumboots; 80% shopping centre / indoor play-centre / kid-friendly café / Moana.

HEAVY RAIN: 10% outdoor travel still possible; 90% Moana

DON’T THINK IT’S ALL OVER IN WINTERSydney has a pretty equal number of rainy days per season.

High Moana months.

RAINY MONTHS VS SCHOOL HOLIDAYSHigh rainy days x school holidays = frazzled parents and cabin fever kids EVERYWHERE.

Do not, I repeat, DO NOT be tempted to go to an indoor play centre during these periods. Just trust me.

OOOOKAY IT’S NOT THAT BAD…

Luckily we don’t have too many concentrated periods of rain in Sydney.

In each month, rainy days are mostly sporadic.

October had the highest number of rainy days in 2018 (19), followed by June (16).

This is a shift from the 6 year average; March usually has the most rainy days (16 on average) followed by June and April (14).

RAINFALL (MM) BY DAY F0R 2018

THE OTHER RAIN CONSEQUENCE?

ARE MORE PARKING FINES ISSUED WHEN IT RAINS?

• This analysis utilises data from the NSW Government Office of Revenue for parking fines issued in NSW (per month) between 2013 – 2017. Source: https://www.revenue.nsw.gov.au/help-centre/resources-library/statistics

• The data has been matched at month level against Sydney weather averages per month.

• Notes This data includes all NSW data (not just Sydney) and was only available at month level (not daily).

Rainy days Drive the kids to daycare

Drive to the train station

Probably park in 2hr

spot

Higher risk of parking

fine??= = = =

109KThe average number of parking fines issued in NSW per month (1.2M per year).

$15.4MThe average monthly revenue accrued from NSW parking fines (that’s $172M per year!)

May, August and March consistently had the highest number of parking tickets issued every year. January and December consistently had the fewest.

So are these the rainiest months?

A PICTURE OF NSW PARKING FINES

When in the year are most parking fines issued?

*Average # NSW parking fines per month (5yr average 2013-17)For full figures see Appendix

*All averages over a 5 year period (2013-2017).

ARE MORE PARKING FINES ISSUED IN RAINIER MONTHS?

At the beginning of the year, there seems to be a correlation; higher number of parking fines when the month is rainy and fewer when it’s not.

However from mid-year onwards, the correlation seems to be inverse. Higher parking fines when it is dryer. Do parking inspectors hate the rain? Or are there just more cars on the road at these times of year?

December/January always has the least number of fines: fewer cars on the road? Inspectors feeling the Christmas spirit?

ACTUALLY, THERE’S NO CLEAR CORRELATION BETWEEN NSW PARKING FINES AND RAINY MONTHS…

So… effectively I’m at no more of a risk of a parking ticket when it rains versus when it is dry.

But I might still be more careful in May, August and March from now on!

BEACH DAYS

THE BEST THING ABOUT LIVING IN SYDNEY…

*Average over 6 year period

86 The average number of perfect beach days per year in Sydney.

Especially if you have kids. Free fun, and there’s very little mischief they can get up to.

Perfect beach weather:

No rain, max temp between 25 - 33°.

(Not too cool, but not scorching).

So that’s ¼ of the year that we could be spending at the beach!

But knowing Murphy’s Law, they’ll always be on a bloody Wednesday… right?!

HOW MANY WEEKENDS CAN WE GET TO THE BEACH?On what day do most perfect beach days fall?

The most frequent beach days are:

Friday (hmm, sickie anyone?!) and Saturday – woo!

Actually about half the weekends of our year (25) are have at least one perfect beach day.

That’s a pretty good split – we’ve all got other things to do, can’t just be sitting on the beach every weekend.

BABY DAYS

WHEN IS THE BEST TIME TO HAVE A BABY? (IMO)

Average Max Temperature per day over the last 6 years (2013-2018)

High rain month

High rain month

High rain month

Too hot: can’t go for walks with the pram = baby will never sleep in the pram = housebound for all naps.

Also babies HATE the car from about 2-5mo.

Also not fun being heavily preggasin 30+ degree heat...

BUT…nothing better than a nudie baby just in their nappy all summer ♥

Better temperatures but too rainy – same pram / car problems as hot weather.

This is a pretty good window.

Too rainy.

Winter babies are good –rug them up for pram walks and snuggle up on the couch. BUT… HARD to get out of your warm bed 4+ times a night for feeding/settling. (Or 8+ times if you have my baby)

Spring: another good baby window. Also baby chicks and lambs about-so sweet! (If you live in the country).

Too hot again. Also Christmas time – so busy! Plus your Obs might be on holidays!

NSW BABIES: HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

• This analysis utilises data sourced from the ABS; NSW births-per-month

• Data is from 1st Jan 2013 –30th Sept 2017 (Oct-Dec 2017 has been removed due to unreliability).

• Note: Data is for NSW (not Sydney alone).

• The data has been matched at month level against Sydney weather averages per month.

7,905The average number of babies born in NSW per month. That’s about 11 every hour!

NSW births by month and year

SO… IS ANYONE HEEDING MY ADVICE?

Too hot Too rainy Good window

Too rainy Good window Good window Too hot

SO… IS ANYONE HEEDING MY ADVICE?

Too hot Too rainy Good window

Too rainy Good window Good window Too hot

March has been the most common birth month in the past 6 years

(too rainy guys!)

October and September the 2nd & 3rd most popular month for babies (solid choice).

Peak here -well done. NSW parents

agree: too hot and too ChristmassyFewer

births. Too hot for it.

NSW PARENTS KNOW WHAT’S UP

Peak in winter –well done but beware cold nights.

Dip here –well done.

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNT?

1. Invest in a solid summer wardrobe. You’ll have 135 days per year of 25°+ to cover!

2. Get your rainy day activities prepared for March, June and April.

3. Don’t park illegally in May, August or March. (But go for it in December.)

4. Friday is the best day to take a sickie if you want to go to the beach.

5. Have your babies in May, July, August, September or October.

OH YEAH AND BACK TO THE

JACKET…

IT ENDS WITH A JACKET.We’ve learnt I have an opportunity to wear this jacket on average 10 times per year.

(That bit is mainly for my husband).

Assuming I wear it at least half of these opportunities --(come on guys I have other coats in my wardrobe that need wearing too) – it’s only like $19 per wear over its lifetime to date!

AND for every compliment I get when I wear it, I take $10 off per wear.

SO actually, it turns out it was a very sound investment.

THANK YOU!

APPENDIX 1: FULL DATA DEFINITIONS AND CATEGORISATIONS

GENERAL WEATHER DEFINITIONS

Winter-cape wearing weather: Max temperature 16°C or under, between June and August

Kids jacket-wearing weather: Max temperature 19°C or under, in any month

Summery days in winter Max temperature 22°C or over, with 4+ hours of sunshine, between June - August

Beach-going days Max temperature between 25 and 33°C , with no rain, in any month

Perfect autumn days Max temperature between 19-22°C, with zero rainfall, between March and May

Rainy days Days with over 0.1 mm rainfall*, in any month

WARDROBE CATEGORISATION BASED ON TEMPERATURE

Temperature Style guide

16 degrees and below Winter coat, definitely gloves, beanie ideal (added benefit: don't need to do hair).

17-19 degrees Midweight jacket over long-sleeves, maybe scarf, probably gloves in the morning.

19-23 degrees Lightweight jacket over short sleeves.

25 degrees+ No jeans after this point.

33 degrees+Preferably shorts & singlet or lightweight beach dress. Nightmare for appropriate work

clothes.

RAINFALL CATEGORISATIONS

Precipitation per day Categorisation

0.1 to 2.5mm Light rain

2.5mm to 10mm Moderate rain

10mm to 50mm Heavy rain

50mm + Violent rain

Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rain

BEAUFORT SCALE FOR WINDSPEED

km/hr

Light Winds 0-40

Strong Breeze (advisory force) 40-62

Gale-Force 62-88

Storm-Force 88-117

Hurricane-Force 117+

Syd weather data 2018 ranges between 0 to 85

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale

APPENDIX 2: MAX TEMPERATURES

AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PER SEASON (6YR AVERAGE)

MAX TEMP BY DAY 2018

APPENDIX 3: RAINY DAYS

ANNUAL RAINY DAYS BY CAPITAL CITY

City Average rainy days per year

Hobart 164

Melbourne 140

Sydney 135

Perth 128

Brisbane 124

Adelaide 124

Darwin 115

Canberra 105

Source: Bureau of Meteorology, average # days from 2013 – 2018 where rainfall >= 0.2mm

APPENDIX 4: PARKING FINES

AVG PARKING FINES PER MONTH (BY YEAR)

APPENDIX 5: Washing days

(a tad too boring to leave in main presentation!)

WASHING. SO. MUCH. WASHING.

*Uses data from 2018 only

I hate it when I finally

finish doing all the

laundry then look up

to see my family walking

around wearing clothes

-@LilybreesWe also want to save the environment so the % of the year using the dryer versus clothesline is important!

When you’re a parent with 2+ kids, you do washing EVERY. SINGLE. DAY. Like literally.

Optimal washing weather becomes a big deal in your life! (It’s SO sad).

Proportion of year with wet weather

HOW MANY OPTIMAL CLOTHESLINE DAYS?

*Uses data from 2018 only

7% Acceptable(dry, but not sunny or windy)

33% Mecca(dry, sunny & windy)

60% Good(dry & sunny, but not windy

ORdry & windy, but not sunny)

APPENDIX 6: MISC

INSTAGRAMMABLE AUTUMN PICS

I mean….