How are Opinions

Influenced by Political

Campaigns?

Introduction

•The On-Line Model

•The 2001 General Election Campaign

MEMORY BASED MODELS

VSON-LINE MODEL

PEOPLE FORGET… A LOT

In a week, half of subjects will not be able to remember a

single gist

In a month, only 3 in 10 people will be able

to remember anything at all

Some More Evidence

And More Evidence

Causal Model

The 2001 General Election Campaign

H. Clarke, D. Sanders, M. Stewart and P. Whiteley. Political Choice in Britain. (Oxford University Press, 2004)

Background to the 2001 Campaign

•The Labour Party Campaign

•The Conservative Party Campaign

•The Liberal Democrat Campaign

Dimensions of UK Election Campaigns

Temporal Dimension

Spatial Dimension Long Campaign Medium Campaign Short Campaign

Central

Government PoliciesOrganisational Structures Established Policy Initiatives

Government News Management Preparation of Manifesto Publication of Manifesto

Opinion Polling Hire Advertising Agency News Conferences

Other Elections Prioritise Constituencies Speeches/Interviews

Party Election Broadcasts

Party Advertising

Centrally Co-Ordinated at Local Level

Reselection of MPs Voter IdentificationRegistration of Postal Voters

LocalSelection of Candidates Leaflet Distribution

Candidates Speeches/Interviews

Conversion vs. Activation

Exposure to the Campaign

Effects of the Campaign

Changing Vote Intentions

Modelling Direct Effects

Labour1. Labour mobilisation and spending increased a person’s chance

of voting Labour2. Pre-election intention to vote Labour remained the biggest

indicator 3. But the Labour campaign was successful 4. The view of the Labour leader had massive effect

Conservatives5. Pre-election intention to vote Conservative also remained the

biggest indicator 6. Exposure to Labour campaign effected Conservative voters7. Prior Voting Intention had less effect on Conservative voters

Liberal Democrats8. Lib Dem voting was boosted by their campaigning efforts9. Lib Dem voters were more likely to be swayed by the

Conservative campaign

Conclusions1. Strong support for OL model in contrast to

Memory based model

2. People forget information, but remember the affective evaluation

3. Political campaigns have far reaching dimensions

4. UK General Election campaigns influence voter choice

References• M. Lodge, M. Steebergen and S Brau. ‘The

Responsive Voter: Campaign Information and the Dynamics of Candidate Evaluation’. American Political Science Review, 1995 vol 89: 309-326

• H. Clarke, D. Sanders, M. Stewart and P. Whiteley. Political Choice in Britain. Oxford University Press, 2004.