how are these systems unique? a custom-made system is developed for each urban area, based on...
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Heat and Health: Methodological Considerations for Warning System
Development
Public Weather Program Leader’s MeetingMinneapolis, MN - June 24, 2003
Dr. Laurence S. KalksteinCenter for Climatic Research
University of Delaware
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How Are These Systems Unique?
A custom-made system is developed for each urban area, based on specific meteorology for each locale, as well as urban structure and demographics
These systems are based on actual weather-health relationships, as determined by daily variations in human mortality
These systems are based on much more than just temperature and humidity
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World Meteorological OrganizationShowcase Projects
Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware
Participating Cities: - Dayton/Cincinnati, USA- New Orleans, USA- Philadelphia, USA- Phoenix, USA- Rome, Italy- Shanghai, China- Toronto, Canada- Washington, USA- Five additional cities, Southern USA- Chicago/St. Louis, New for 2003
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Maximum Temperature vs. Daily Mortality: New York and Jacksonville, Florida
New York Jacksonville
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Maximum Temperature Health Thresholds
Boston 30ºC
Atlanta 32ºC
Dallas 40ºC
Denver 34ºC
Phoenix 44ºC
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Cook County, Illinois: July ‘95
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1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29
Day
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Steps in System Development
Step 1: Determine air masses daily over a city using newly-developed Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC)
Step 2: Are any of these air masses ‘offensive’?
Step 3: What aspects of the offensive air mass make it most detrimental to human health?
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SSC Air Mass Types• DP Dry Polar (cP)• DM Dry Moderate (Pacific)• DT Dry Tropical (cT)• MP Moist Polar (mP)• MM Moist Moderate (Overrunning)• MT Moist Tropical (mT)• MT+ Moist Tropical Plus• TR Transition between air masses----------------Sheridan, S.C., 2002: The redevelopment of a weather-type classification scheme for North America.
Int’. J. Climatology.Kalkstein et al., 1996, A New Spatial Synoptic Classification: Application to Air Mass Analysis. Int.
J. Climatology.
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Characteristics of PittsburghAir Mass Types
Frequency (%) 33.7 12.6 3.5 16.8 4.4 20.6 8.45 pm 5 pm 5 am Cover Direction Freq.DP 74 49 54 4 NW 11%DM 83 56 61 4 W 29%DT 95 58 69 4 W 2%MP 67 60 60 8 NE 5%MM 76 65 64 7 SW 22%MT 84 66 68 6 SW 18%MT+ 90 71 73 5 SW 5%TR 77 57 64 7 Var 7%
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Removing Non-Climatological Noise from the Mortality Data
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Phoenix’s Rising Mortality
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75 80 85 90 95
Year
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Mean Deaths in Rome by Daystandardization is important
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Results: Offensive Air Mass Types
• Moist Tropical Plus (MT+):– Very warm, humid– High overnight temperatures
• Dry Tropical (DT):– Hot, dry– High solar load
• Dry Tropical Plus (DT+; Phoenix only):– Extremely hot, dry– High solar load
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Mean Mortality Increases
Location (Freq) DT (DT+) MT+
Cincinnati (8%) +4.4 (15%) +1.8 (6%)
New Orleans (2%) None +3.7 (9%)
Phoenix (1%) +2.7 (7%) None
Rome (11%) +6.2 (14%) +5.0 (12%)
Shanghai (12%) None +42.4 (16%)
Toronto (7%) +4.2 (11%) +4.0 (10%)
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Mean Anomalous Mortality by Weather Type, Rome
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DP DT MM MP MT MT+DM TR
(7.0%) (4.3%)
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Mean Anomalous Mortality by Weather Type, Shanghai
-20
-10
0
10
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30
40
50
Mea
n A
nom
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DP DT MM MP MT MT+DM TR
(12.5%)
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Likelihood of Excess MortalityToronto
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
MT+ DT MT DM MP MM TR DP
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Development of Forecast Algorithms: Within-Air Mass Category
Mortality Variations
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ROME
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5/155/31
6/16/15
6/166/30
7/17/15
7/167/31
8/18/15
8/168/31
9/19/15
9/169/30
Me
an a
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mal
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s m
ort
alit
yMT+ mortality decreases through summer
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ROME
DT mortality vs. morning temperature
-30-20-10
01020304050
16 18 20 22 24 26 28
5 AM temperature (°C)
Me
an a
nom
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mor
talit
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Impact of Consecutive Days of Offensive Air Masses
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1 2 3 4 5Day in Row
Exce
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eath
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DT MT+
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In Toronto, When a DT or MT+ Air Mass is Forecast, Three Levels of
Advisory are Possible:
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Year-to-Year Variability: Toronto
02468
101214161820
53 58 63 68 73 78 83 88 93 98
Alert
Emergency
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Advisory and Emergency Frequencies: Phoenix, AZ
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Freq
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ADVISORY D1/D2 EMERGENCY
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Summary of Watches/Warnings Under NWS System andAir Mass System, Summer 2001
New Orleans, Louisiana
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Toronto: 2001 Results
Alerts• June 29th (DT 71%)• July 23rd (MT+ 88%)• July 24th (MT+ 84%)• Aug 5th (DT 65%)
Emergencies• June 15th (MT+ 96%)• Aug 6th (DT 91%)• Aug 7th (DT 93%)• Aug 8th (DT 97%)• Aug 9th (DT 99%)
Four day run of heat emergencies Aug 6-9 would have only occurred two other times in the 46 years for which data was provided.
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Steps That can be Taken When Alerts or Emergencies are Called
1. NWS alerts appropriate city agency (e.g., Department of Health, Office of Aging, etc.)
2. City develops (or already has in place) intervention plans
3. Effectiveness of system can be monitored in three manners,and improvements are implemented if there are shortcomings:--forecasting effectiveness (false positives or negatives)--accuracy in estimating health impacts of offensive weather --noting if we are saving lives.