how direct selling remains relevant in the digital age ... · selling remains relevant in the...

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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Deep Dive: How Direct

Selling Remains

Relevant in the Digital Age

KeyTakeaways

1) TheglobaldirectsellingmarketreboundedtoUS$134.2billionin2016,up2.8%fromthepreviousyear,accordingtoEuromonitor.TheChinamarket,valuedatUS$33.9billion,followscloselybehindtheUSasthesecond-largestdirectsellingmarketintheworld,andisexpectedtoovertaketheUSinthenextfewyears.

2) Directsellingcompaniesarefacingchallengesinthedigitalage;notonlyareconsumersincreasinglyshiftingtheirpurchasesonline,buttechnologyhasenabledbrandsandretailerstooffermorepersonalizedservices,akeycompetitiveadvantagepreviouslyownedbydirectsellers.

3) Despitethesechallenges,somedirectsellingcompanieshaveenjoyedunparalleledgrowthinrecentyears,leveragingdigitaltoolstoincreaseoperationalefficiencyaswellastobroadentheirreachtopotentialcustomers.

Deborah Weinswig

Managing Director,

FGRT

[email protected]

US: 917.655.6790

HK: 852.6119.1779

CN: 86.186.1420.3016

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TableofContentsExecutiveSummary.............................................................................................................3

MarketOverview................................................................................................................4ChinaonTracktoBecometheLargestDirectSellingMarket..............................................................5TopDirectSellingCompaniesFaceDecliningRevenues......................................................................6WellnessOvertakesCosmeticsandPersonalCareastheLargestCategory........................................8

ChallengesFacedbyDirectSellersintheDigitalAge............................................................9CompetitionforConsumers.................................................................................................................9CompetitionforWorkforce..................................................................................................................9TheRiseofInfluencersandKeyOpinionLeaders..............................................................................11ErosionofCompetitiveAdvantages...................................................................................................11

DirectSellersEmbracingtheDigitalAge............................................................................12Jeunesse.............................................................................................................................................13Amway...............................................................................................................................................14

Conclusion.........................................................................................................................15

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ExecutiveSummaryDirectsellingreferstoproductsorserviceswhicharesolddirectlytoconsumersbyindependentsalesrepresentatives,eliminatingmiddlemensuchaswholesalersandretailers.ItisamajorglobalretailchannelworthUS$134.2billionin2016,a2.8%increasefromthepreviousyear.

TheUSisthelargestdirectsellingmarket,valuedatUS$35.5billionin2016,withChinatrailingclosebehind,atUS$33.9billion,accordingtotheWorldFederationofDirectSellingAssociations(WFDSA).Growingatanestimatedthree-yearcompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)of13%,ChinaisexpectedtoovertaketheUSasthelargestdirectsellingmarketinthenextfewyears,accordingtoDirectSellingNews.

Wellnessisthelargestproductcategoryindirectselling,generatingUS$63.5billioninrevenuesin2016,up40.1%from2013.Cosmeticsandpersonalcarefollowsasthesecond-largestproductcategory,valuedatUS$48.3billionin2016.Thesuccessofdirectsellinginthesetwocategoriescanlargelybeattributedtothepersonalizedserviceprovidedbysalesrepresentatives.

Eventhoughdirectsellingisgrowinggloballyinabsoluteterms,directsellingcompaniesarefacingdigital-agechallengessimilartothosefacedbytraditionalstore-basedretailers:consumersareshiftingmoreoftheirpurchasesonlineandtechnologicalinnovationshaveenabledbrandsandretailerstoprovidemorepersonalizedservicesovertheInternet.Furthermore,directsellingcompaniesarealsofacingthechallengeofrecruitingsalesrepresentatives,astechnologyandthesharingeconomyhavebroughtaboutalternativewaystoearnsupplementalincome.

Despitethesechallenges,somedirectsellingcompanieshaveenjoyedunparalleledgrowthinrecentyears,astheyhaveleverageddigitaltoolstoincreaseoperationalefficiencyandtobroadentheirreachtopotentialcustomers.

Source:iStockphoto

Directsellingcompaniesarefacingchallengesinthedigitalage,asconsumerscontinuetoembraceInternetretailingandshiftmoreoftheirpurchasesonline.

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MarketOverviewDirectsellingreferstoproductsorserviceswhicharesolddirectlytoconsumersbyindependentsalesrepresentatives,eliminatingmiddlemensuchaswholesalersandretailers.ThisbusinessmodeloriginatedintheUSinthe18thcenturyandhasbecomeamajorretailchannel.

Source:iStockphoto

TheglobaldirectsellingmarketpeakedatUS$140.1billionin2013,thenexperiencedadropfortwoconsecutiveyearsin2014–2015,shrinkingtoUS$130.6billionin2015,down6.8%from2013.

ThemarketthenreboundedtoUS$134.2billionin2016,andisexpectedtoexperiencearesurgenceoverthenextfewyearstoreachUS$163.1billionby2020withaCAGRof4.9%,accordingtoEuromonitor.

Figure1.GlobalDirectSellingMarketSize,2012‒2020(US$Billion)

Source:EuromonitorInternational

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TheglobaldirectsellingmarketreboundedtoUS$134.2billionin2016,andisexpectedtoseearesurgenceoverthenextfewyearstoreachUS$163.1billionby2020.

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ChinaonTracktoBecometheLargestDirectSellingMarketUS:TheUSisthelargestdirectsellingmarketintheworld,valuedatUS$35.5billionin2016,accordingtotheWFDSA.Thetop-threedirectsellingcompaniesglobally—Amway,AvonandHerbalife—wereallfoundedthere.TheUSalsohasthelargestnumberofsellers—20.5millionin2016.

China:ClosebehindinsecondplaceisChina,valuedatUS$33.9billion.AccordingtoareportbyDirectSellingNews,theexplosivegrowthinChina’sdirectsellingmarketcanbeattributedtotheChinesegovernment’sapprovalofmorelicensesfordirectsellingcompanies.Growingatanestimatedthree-yearCAGRof13%,thecountryisexpectedtoovertaketheUSasthelargestdirectsellingmarketwithinthenextfewyears.

SouthKorea:ValuedatUS$16.9billionin2016andwithathree-yearCAGRof6.7%,SouthKoreaisthethird-largestdirectsellingmarket.DirectsellingisoneofthemajordistributionchannelsforconsumerhealthproductsinSouthKorea,accountingfor34.4%oftheretailvaluesharein2015,accordingtoEuromonitorInternational.

Source:iStockphoto

Figure2.Top-10CountriesbyDirectSellingMarketSize,2016

Source:WorldFederationofDirectSellingAssociations

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ChinafollowscloselybehindtheUSasthesecond-largestdirectsellingmarket,valuedatUS$33.9billion.Growingatanestimatedthree-yearCAGRof13%,itisexpectedtoovertaketheUSasthelargestdirectsellingmarketintheworldinthenextfewyears.

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TopDirectSellingCompaniesFaceDecliningRevenuesAmway:Foundedin1959byJayVanAndelandRichardDeVos,Amwayistheworld’slargestdirectsellingcompanybyrevenues,recordingUS$8.8billionin2016.Thecompanysellsawiderangeofproductsincludingwellness,beautyandhomecareproducts.

Source:amway.com

Avon:Foundedin1886,andoneoftheoldestcompaniesintheindustry,Avonisthesecond-largestdirectsellingcompanyintheworld.ItreportednetsalesofUS$5.7billionin2016.In2016,AvonsolditsUSbusinesstoCerberus,andhassincemoveditsheadquarterstotheUK.Thecompanyoffersproductsinthebeauty,householdandpersonalcarecategories.

Source:avon.com

Fourofthetop-fivedirectsellingcompanieshavesufferedadropinrevenues,registeringanegativeCAGRbetween2013and2016.

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Herbalife:Herbalifefocusesinthewellnesscategory,sellingnutritionsupplements,weight-management,sports-nutritionandpersonal-careproducts.Thecompanywasfoundedin1980,witharelativelyshorterhistoryamongthetop-fivedirectsellingcompanies.

Source:herbalife.com

Therankingofthetop-fivedirectsellingcompanieshasremainedunchangedinthepastthreeyears.However,fourofthesecompanieshavesufferedadropinrevenues,registeringanegativeCAGRbetween2013and2016.

Figure3.Top-5DirectSellingCompanies,2016

Source:DirectSellingNews

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WellnessOvertakesCosmeticsandPersonalCareastheLargestCategoryWellness:Wellnessisthelargestdirectsellingcategory,generatingUS$63.5billionin2016,up40.1%from2013.Fundamentaldriverssuchastheagingofthepopulationinmajordevelopedmarketsandincreasingawarenessofhealthandwellnessamongconsumershaveunderpinnedtheexplosivegrowthinthiscategory.

AsnotedbyPaulPilzer,anAmericaneconomist,thedirectsellingchanneliswellsuitedtowellnessproducts,duetotheperson-to-personnatureofthechannel.Unlikeacarorclothingsalesperson,thewellnesssalesrepresentativeisanexperienceduseroftheproduct,servingasawellnessadvisortotheconsumer.Inaddition,satisfiedconsumersalsohavetheincentivetointroducetheproductstoothers,astheycaneasilyenrollassalesrepresentatives,themselves.

Cosmeticsandpersonalcare:ValuedatUS$48.3billionin2016,andup11.4%from2013,cosmeticsandpersonalcareisthesecond-largestdirectsellingcategoryglobally.Despitethedouble-digitgrowth,ithasfallenfromthetopspotandbeenovertakenbywellness,whencomparedwith2013.

Householdgoodsandhomedurables:Thethird-largestcategory,valuedatUS$21.4billionin2016,ishouseholdgoodsandhomedurables.Homeproductshavethelowestgrowthamongthetop-fiveproductcategories,uponly2.3%from2013.

Figure4.Top-FiveProductCategoriesinDirectSelling,2012vs2016(US$Billion)

Source:WorldFederationofDirectSellingAssociations

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Apartfromtheagingofthepopulationandincreasingawarenessofhealthandwellness,theexplosivegrowthinwellnesscanbeattributedtotheroleofsalesrepresentativesindirectselling.

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ChallengesFacedbyDirectSellersintheDigitalAge

CompetitionforConsumersAlthoughdirectsellingandtraditionalstore-basedretailingoperatedifferentbusinessmodels,theyarebothfacingthechallengesposedbyInternetretailinginthepastdecade,asconsumersincreasinglyshifttheirpurchasesonline.

AccordingtoEuromonitor,year-over-yeargrowthofInternetretailinghasoutpacedthatofbothdirectsellingandstore-basedretailingfor10consecutiveyears.In2016,directsellingandstore-basedretailingregisteredyear-over-yeargrowthof6.5%and3.9%,respectively,whileInternetretailinggrewat15.1%yearoveryear.

Figure5.YoYGrowthRateofGlobalRetailValuebyDistributionChannels,2007‒2016(Fixed2016FXRatestoUSD)

Source:EuromonitorInternational

CompetitionforWorkforceApartfromcustomers,directsellingcompaniesalsofacethechallengeofrecruitingsalesrepresentativesinthedigitalage,astechnologyhasbroughtaboutalternativewaysforpeopletoearnasupplementalincome.

Directsellingcompaniesoffertheopportunitytostartabusinesswithoutheavyinitialinvestment,suchasrentingastoreandhiringstaff,withacuratedrangeofproducts.However,itisnowpossibletodosoonane-commerceplatformsuchaseBay,orevensocialmedianetworkssuchasInstagram.Apartfromthegreaterflexibilityinchoiceofproductstosell,sellingonlinealsoprovidesawiderreachtopotentialcustomers,withoutthegeographicalboundaries.

Inaddition,thesharingeconomyhasbroughtaboutmorewaystoearnapart-timeincome.AccordingtoapollconductedbyPennSchoenBerlandin2016,itisestimatedthat45millionpeopleintheUSareparticipatinginthesharingeconomybyofferinggoodsorservices.ThisfigurehassurpassedthenumberofdirectsellersintheUS,whichstoodat21millionin2016,accordingtotheWFDSA.

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Thedirectsellingindustryisfacingachallengingenvironment,asconsumersincreasinglybuymoreproductsonline.

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Figure6.PeopleEngagedinDirectSellingandtheSharingEconomyintheUS(Million)


Forexample,appssuchasUberandLyfthaveenabledprivatecardriverstousetheirprivatecartoearnextraincome,andcompaniessuchasInstacartemploythousandsofpersonalgroceryshoppers.Comparedwithdirectselling,whichrequiresbusinessskillsandacommitmenttodevelopacustomerbase,thesharingeconomyappealstothosewhodonotwishtomakesuchacommitment.

Source:lyft.com/app-sms

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TheRiseofInfluencersandKeyOpinionLeadersInthedigitalage,theriseofinfluencers,orkeyopinionleaders(KOL)astheyarecalledinChina,hasbeendramatic.Influencersgainpopularityonsocialmedia,whichtheymonetizebyadvertisingandsellingproducts.

SomeKOLshaveevenlaunchedtheirownbrands.Forinstance,intheUS,MichellePhan,avideobloggerwithover8millionsubscribersonYouTube,launchedherownbeautysubscriptionboxcompanyIpsyin2011.Ipsychargesamonthlysubscriptionfeetodeliverabagoffivecosmeticsamplestosubscribers,whichhelpsconsumerstodiscovernewproductsatareasonablecost.Thecompanygainedpopularityamongsocialmediaasvideobloggerspostedvideosandsharedtheirexperienceofunboxingthebeautyproducts.

Source:ipsy.com

InChina,weareseeingwanghong(onlinecelebritiesorcewebrities)settinguptheirownstoresone-commerceplatforms.Forexample,amongthetop-10womenswearTaobaostoreslaunchedin2016,halfofthemwerelaunchedbyfashioncewebrities.AccordingtoCBNData,thee-commercemarketsizeofonlinecelebritiesreached$8.6billionin2016.

Inthelongterm,theriseofKOLsmaydisruptthetraditionalperson-to-persondistributionapproachusedbydirectsellers,asmoreconsumersarerelyingonsocialmediatoshop.Indeed,astudybyBigCommercein2017showsthat23%ofUSshoppersareinfluencedbysocialmediarecommendationsorreviews.Inaddition,thestudyshowsthat51%ofmillennialsarelikelytomakeapurchaseoversocialmedia,higherthanbabyboomersat14%.

ErosionofCompetitiveAdvantagesDirectsellingcompaniesleveragetheirnetworkofsalesrepresentativestoengagewiththeircustomersdirectly,providingpersonalizedservicesandproductrecommendationsaccordingtoeachindividual’sneeds.Thisisakeyadvantagewhenitcomestohealth,wellnessandbeautyproducts,whichhelpsexplainwhythesearethemost-popularcategoriessoldthroughthissaleschannel.

IntheUS,MichellePhan,avideobloggerwithover8millionsubscribersonYouTube,launchedherownbeautysubscriptionboxcompanyIpsyin2011.

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However,thedigitalagehasbroughtwithittechnologythatenablesbrandsandretailerstoprovidepersonalizedservicesandproductrecommendations.Moresophisticatedloyaltyprogramsthathelptrackcustomerbehavior,includingusageofproductsandservices,areonewayretailersareofferingahigherdegreeofpersonalization.Forexample,beautyretailerUlta’sUltamateRewardsprogramaimstodelivermoretargetedandpersonalizedoffersacrossallchannels.Customerswhojointheloyaltyprogramreceiveexclusiveoffersviae-mailorbypost.

Anotherbeautyretailer,Sephora,alsoutilizesitsloyaltyprogramtoproviderelevantrecommendationstomembers.Forinstance,Sephorarecordstheskintypeofcustomersanditspromotionale-mailsmakerelevantrecommendationsaccordingly.

Source:sephora.com

Withtheapplicationofbigdataanalysis,brandsandretailersnowprovidepersonalizedservicesandproductrecommendation,whichwasonlypreviouslypossiblethroughsalesrepresentativesofdirectsellingcompanies.

Amazonusestheshoppingpatternsofcustomerstomakecontextualrecommendationsofproducts.Itshomepageshowsthetopsellersindifferentcategories,dependingontheuser,andpersonalizeseveryuser’shomepagebasedontheirbrowsingbehavior.Whenusersclickonaspecificproduct,Amazonwillshowwhatcomplementaryorrelatedproductsothercustomershavepurchased.Thesehelpconsumersdiscoverrelevantitemsthatarepotentiallydesirabletothem.

Source:amazon.com

Thedigitalagehasbroughttechnologythatenablesbrandstoprovidepersonalizedservicesandproductrecommendationsaswell,akeycompetitiveadvantagepreviouslyownedbydirectsellingcompanies.

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DirectSellersEmbracingtheDigitalAgeFacingthechallengesofthedigitalage,anumberofnewdirectsellingcompanieshaveenjoyedunparalleledgrowth,whilesomeestablishedplayershaverecognizedthechallengesandaretransformingtheirbusinesstoembracethedigitalage.Tounderstandbothscenarios,weexaminetwocompaniesinthissection:JeunesseandAmway.

JeunesseFoundedin2009,Jeunesseisoneofthefastest-growingdirectsellingcompaniesinrecentyears.Itfocusesonwellnessandskincareproducts.Despitethetoughchallengesfacedbydirectsellers,itsrevenuesgrewfromUS$65millionin2011toUS$1,41billionin2016,registeringaCAGRof85%.

Source:jeunesseglobal.com/en-HK

Figure7.JeunesseNetSales,2011‒2016(US$million)


Therapidexpansionofthecompanycanbeattributedtoitsadoptionofdigitaltoolsfordistribution,promotionandtraining.

Asof2015,Jeunessehasestablished30officesand44distributioncentersaroundtheworld,butwithamuchwiderpresenceinover125markets.

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TherapidexpansionofJeunessecouldbepartiallyattributedtoitsadoptionofdigitaltoolsforpromotion,distributionandstafftraining.

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RandyRay,CEOofJeunesse,pointedoutthatthecompany’searlyinvestmentintechnologicalinfrastructurehashelpeditsglobalexpansion.

Thecompanymakesuseofanonlineplatformtoallowsalesrepresentativestomanagetheirbusiness,includingplacingorders,reviewingearnings,aswellastoreceivethelatestpromotionalmaterials.Theplatformisavailableonbothdesktopandmobileapp,thelatterofwhichhasalreadysurpassed100,000downloadsontheGooglePlayStore.

Inthissense,thetechnologicalbackboneofthecompanyallowsittoscaleacrossgeographiesquickly,assalesrepresentativesmayjointhecompanyeveniftherearenophysicalofficesintheircountryorregion.

Inaddition,thecompanyalsotrainsitssalesrepresentativesviawebinarsorYouTubevideos,makingiteasierfornewjoinerstolearnandsharetheirskillsindirectselling.

AmwayAmwayisthelargestdirectsellingcompanyintheworldintermsofrevenue.However,revenuesdroppedtoUS$8.8billionin2016,down28%from2013.Facingthechallengesofthedigitalage,thecompanyisimplementingstrategiestoimprovebothitsonlineandofflinesellingchannels.

Amwayrolledoutitsmobilee-commercesysteminChina,whichincludes10WeChatpublicaccountsand11appsastheironlinesalesinitiative.SalesrepresentativescanpromoteproductsandcommunicatewithcustomersonWeChat,China’smostpopularinstant-messagingplatform.UsingAmway’smobilee-commercesystem,customerscanplaceordersandmakepaymentsonline,andsalesrepresentativescanprovidecustomerserviceonmobiledevicesaswell.

Inadditiontoitsonlinestrategy,Amwayhasdevelopedexperience-drivenbrick-and-mortarstores,which,inthepast,hadservedmerelyasproductdistributionpoints.Thebrick-and-mortarstoresnowserveasaplaceforpotentialcustomerstoexperiencenewproductsandforsalesrepresentativestocommunicatewiththeircustomers.

IntheAmwaydigitalexperiencestore,customersaregivenaNFC-enabledSmartExperienceCardoncetheyhavespentadesignatedamountonpurchasesin-storethatcanbeconnectedtothecustomers’socialmediaaccountsandcanrecordeveryactionthecustomersmake.Customerscantakepartindigitalexperienceswithaseriesofinteractiveinstallationsin-store,andtakesnapsinthephotobooth,whichtheycanthenshareonsocialmediatocreateahigherawareness.InthefirsttwoweeksoftheopeningoftheexperiencestoreinHongKong,itreceivedover1,500NFCactivations,over1,000sharesonsocialmediaandover5,500boothcheck-ins.

Amwayhasdevelopedexperience-drivenbrick-and-mortarstores,which,inthepast,hadonlyservedasproductdistributionpoints.

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Source:Amway

Salesrepresentativescanalsoorganizeeventsorformcommunitiestostrengththeirrelationshipwithcustomers.Forexample,inChina,Amwayformedamothers’clubforwomentosharetheirexperienceswithchildnurturingortheirskin-caretechniques.Thecommunityimprovesbondingbetweensalesrepresentativesandcustomers,aswellasloyaltyforAmway’sproducts.

ConclusionSimilartotraditionalstore-basedretailers,directsellingcompaniesalsofacechallengesfromtheriseofe-commerce,asconsumerscontinuetoshiftmoreoftheirpurchasesonline.Whilesomestore-basedretailershavesuccessfullytransformedtheirbusinessbyadaptingomnichannelstrategies,severaldirectsellingcompanieshavealsoembracedthedigitalageandremainedcompetitive,registeringstronggrowthinrecentyears.

Omnichannelretailershavetakenadvantageofboththeonlineandofflineworld,suchasallowingconsumerstoexperiencetheproduct(s)inaphysicalstoreandbeingabletopurchaseitonlineatanytime.Inthecaseofthesedirectsellers,theyhaveleveragedthepersonaltouchandinteractionwithconsumers,aswellasutilizingdigitaltoolstoimproveoperationalefficiencyandallowingendconsumerstoplaceordersonline.

Similartothecaseforbrick-and-mortarretailers,directsellersthatareabletoadapttoandembracethedigitalagewillremainrelevanttoconsumersinthedigitalage.Jeunesse,whichwediscussedinthisreport,hasenjoyedunparalleledgrowthinrecentyears,whileAmwayhasseengrowthinseveraltopmarkets,aswellasdouble-digitpercentagegrowthinafurtherninemarkets.

Similartothecaseforbrick-and-mortarretailers,directsellersthatareabletoadapttoandembracethedigitalagewillremainrelevanttoconsumersinthedigitalage.

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DeborahWeinswig,CPAManagingDirectorFGRTNewYork:917.655.6790HongKong:852.6119.1779China:86.186.1420.3016deborahweinswig@fung1937.comEddieWongSeniorResearchAssociate

CharliePoonResearchAssistant

HongKong:2ndFloor,HongKongSpinnersIndustrialBuildingPhase1&2800CheungShaWanRoad,KowloonHongKongTel:85223004406London:242-246MaryleboneRoadLondon,NW16JQUnitedKingdomTel:44(0)2076168988NewYork:1359Broadway,18thFloorNewYork,NY10018Tel:6468397017

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how direct selling remains relevant in the digital age ... · selling remains relevant in the...

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