How do highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks spread?2015

According to poultry experts, the 2015 H5N2 U.S. avian flu crisis is different from past outbreaks because the virus is hitting multiple neighboring farms instead of a wide range of producers. This changing transmission pattern has the U.S. poultry industry hopeful the disease will die out in the summer heat, but experts question:•Will the virus mutate?•How much will AI re-emerge in the fall? 

“A worst-case scenario would involve the highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza returning in migratory wild birds in the fall of 2015 and infections occurring in all poultry sectors – broilers, turkeys and egg layers – and across the country including in the broiler production regions of the Southeastern U.S. and the Upper Midwest and California,” says John Clifford, the chief veterinary officer of the United States.

How has avian flu spread in the U.S.?

Preparations and heightened biosecurity are essential for stemming the spread of avian influenza.

“I believe [high-path avian influenza virus] will be in the fourth flyway in the fall,” says Clifford. “Already this year there were findings of the virus in wild birds in Ontario, Canada. I believe it will be present in wild birds in all the U.S. flyways this fall.”

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To date since December 2014, more than 50 million and rising turkeys and laying hens have been infected and culled with this deadly avian flu strain in 20 states.

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On-farm sampling for avian flu virus is being conducted by USDA ‘s APHIS inside and outside turkey barns. The sampling, which supports the wind modeling studies, is done inside the houses, and at distances of 5 meters, 70 to 150 meters, and 500 to 1,000 meters.

“Virus is being pushed outside the barns, and this may be contaminating environments where people, trucks, birds, rodents move it to other barns,” said Dr. Brian McCluskey, chief epidemiologist, APHIS.

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