how do injuries in the nfl affect the outcome of …...on point spread, and nfl betting odds. –...
TRANSCRIPT
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How Do Injuries in the NFL Affect the Outcome of the Game
Andy Sun STATS 50 2014
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Motivation
• NFL injury surveillance shows upward trend in both the number and severity of injuries !
• Packers won 2010 Super Bowl with 15 players on injured reserve !
• What is the breaking point?
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Two Approaches
• Differences in Probabilities of Winning; pre and post game !
• Adjusted Games Loss
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Differences in Winning Probability
• Let X = Whether or not the favored team won ! 1 or 0 !
• Let p = predicted probability of the favored team winning !
• Let Y = Diff. in Winning Prob. = X - p
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• Predicted probability of winning is based on point spread, and NFL Betting Odds. – Ex/
!• Spread -> Probability – The more negative the spread, the larger the
probability of winning
Favored Spread Underdog
Broncos -3.5 Chiefs
Spread Probability of Winning
24 4%
0 50%
-24 96%
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If the value of Y is…..
• Positive ! favored team wins – The smaller the value of Y, the more heavily
favored the team was to win !
• Negative ! favored team loses – The more negative the value of Y, the bigger
the upset
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Bins based on Injuries Sustained
• Look at the difference in winning probability based on the number of injuries for that week !
• Ex/ Fav_off > Udog_def !
• Ex/ Fav_total > Udog_total
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Take the Averages in Each BinBin Avg Diff in Winning Probability
fav_off > underdog_off -0.117fav_off <= underdog_off 0.594fav_off > underdog_def 0.12fav_off <= underdog_def -0.079fav_def > underdog_off 0.025fav_def <= underdog_off 0.0195fav_def > underdog_def 0.1197fav_def <= underdog_def -0.186fav_off > fav_def -0.1346fav_off <= fav_def 0.05fav_total > underdog_total 0.0676fav_total <= underdog_total -0.075
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Num
ber
of W
Ins
0
3
7
10
13
fav_off > underdog_off fav_off <= underdog_def fav_def > underdog_def fav_off <= fav_def
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Favored Team LosesBin Avg Diff in Winning Probability
fav_off > underdog_off -0.117fav_off <= underdog_def -0.079fav_def <= underdog_def -0.186fav_off > fav_def -0.1346fav_total <= underdog_total -0.075
✓ Favored Offense has more injuries than opposing offense !
? Favored team has less injuries overall than the underdog team
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Favored Team WinsBin Avg Diff in Winning Probability
fav_off <= underdog_off 0.594fav_off > underdog_def 0.12fav_def > underdog_off 0.025fav_def <= underdog_off 0.0195fav_def > underdog_def 0.1197fav_off <= fav_def 0.05fav_total > underdog_total 0.0676
✓ Favored defense has injuries than opposing offense !
? Favored team has more injuries overall than the underdog team
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Challenges
• Data Collection – No readily usable data aggregated together – Lots of preprocessing needed !
• Sample Size – Small sample size due to challenges in
collecting data
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Adjusted Games Loss (AGL)
• Attempt to find more conclusive results! !
• Quantifies how much teams are affected by injuries to starters and injury replacements, and by player listing status on NFL Injury Report. !
• http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/2013-adjusted-games-lost
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“Brute Force”
• With difference in winning probability, very careful selection of data !
• With AGL, took more of a brute force approach with machine learning
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• 2013 – 2014 NFL Season !
• Use x inputs to “predict” whether or not a certain team made it to the playoffs !!!
• Analyze the most important features used in prediction
1 if made playoffs !0 otherwise
Input Features
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Binary Classification Tree
• Analogy ! Fruits !
• Going to classify whether an input is an apple or not
Features Label
Red ext, beige int, medium sized, low seeds
AppleRed ext, purple int, small sized, med seeds
Grape
Red ext, gray int, small sized, lost of seeds
Pomegranate
Green ext, red int, large sized, lots of seeds
Watermelon
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Is Color Red?
Not AppleIs interior beige?
Is Apple Not Apple
Notice how we never have to ask about size or the Number of seeds.
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Back to football
• Create feature vector for each NFL team !
• Create corresponding label indicating whether or not that team made the play offs !
• Feature Selection: How important of a feature is AGL? How high up in the tree structure is it?
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The Predictive Model
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How important is AGL as a Feature?
• Not very important !
• This may also me due to human error in deciding which features to use !
• Chose this approach so that I could look at lots of data, but same problem as before: not enough quickly usable injury databases
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Inconclusive
• Need to do gather and format more data
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Thank You!