how do materials affect energy sustainability ? energy limits materials availability esp....
TRANSCRIPT
How do Materials Affect Energy Sustainability ?
Energy Limits Materials Availability
esp. Sustainable Availability ✔
but ….
Do Materials Limit Energy Availability,
esp. Sustainable Availability ?
Igor Lubomirsky and David Cahen
but what about the inversei.e., does sustainable materials availability
affect sustainable energy availability ?
How will transitioning to new energy technologies affect materials production
and consumption?
Do we have the technological abilities to adapt?
If yes, how?
Sustainable Energy availability defines the range of Materials that can be used
sustainably
World Oil Energy Consumption by Sector, 1973-2010
Why do we have to consider these questions ? Because energy consumption is highly specialized.
If a technologically and economically viable energy
alternative exists,
can it be implemented
and if it can,
to what extent* and how fast?**-------------------------------------* ≤ few %, or 10 few 10s of % of global energy use ?** weeks, months, years, decades ?
Why do we have to consider these questions ?
Questions: 1.How much energy can be diverted without major disruptions to living standards? how flexible is energy consumption structure?
2. Can limitations on materials availability affect (energy) technology transitions ?
Postulate
Transition to new technologies requires diversion of materials and
energy
Well .. what is energy used for?
11%
10%
24%
27.5%
27.5%
Materials production Transportation Residential use Commercial services Other
(= most of the “industry” part) 2010
Why do we have to consider these questions ? Because energy consumption is highly specialized.
Can some of this energy be redirected?
Consider Transportation (nearly 30% of total)?
Industrial and commercial Personal and recreational
35.4%
21.2%
23.2%
Agriculture Construction
20.2%
Only ~8% of personal fuel consumption is
“purely” recreational (~1.6% of all transportation,
0.5 % of total)!
“Hidden costs of energy; Unpriced consequences of energy production and use”,
The National Academies press, Washington DC (2010)
Energy usage in transportation in the US
2010
Residential? (~ 25 % of total)
Major fraction (>85%) is for heating and air conditioning.
Commercial services? (~ 10 % of total)
Energy consumption can be cut … at expense of important services-----------------------------------------------
From past* experience ~10% ( 3.5% of total)
*: e.g., 2008/9
Can some residential or commercial services energy
use be redirected?
“Hidden costs of energy; Unpriced consequences of energy production
and use”, The National Academies press, Washington DC (2010)
Can some of the energy for materials processing be
redirected?
“Hidden costs of energy; Unpriced consequences of
energy production and use”, The National Academies press,
Washington DC (2010)
10.7 (32%)4 (12%)
1.5 (5%)
2 (6%)
3 (9%)
12 (36%)
steel cement ammonia aluminum plastics all other
Production of 5 materials requires > 50% of all energy for industry / materials
processing(Haber-Bosch)(Hall-Héroult)
2010
1.3% (6%)
1.4% (7%)
2% (10%)
6% (30%)
> 4% (> 30%)3%
(15%)
Because these 5 materials are vital, only a small part of the energy used for industry can be really
diverted
Can energy expenses for materials processing
decrease with time?
YES, but it takes time…*
* e.g., 3-D Printing
Decreasing energy cost of material extraction from orepig iron
Al smeltingen
erg
y in
ten
sit
y (
MJ/
kg
)
en
erg
y in
ten
sit
y (
MJ/
kg
)
production (x 106 tonnes)
production (x 106 tonnes)
1800
1890
2008
TD limit
0000000
TD limit
2009
from:
embodied energy (MJ/kg)
Pri
ce o
f m
ate
rial (U
S$/k
g)
From:
The importance of “embodied energy” of materials
em
bod
ied
en
erg
y (
MJ/
kg
)
Dilution (1/concentration)(x106 tonnes)
em
bod
ied
en
erg
y (
MJ/
kg
)
world production/consumption (x106 tonnes)
Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase.
WHY?because improved extraction technology
is offset by decreased quality and ore exhaustion
Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials..
Gordon, R. B., Bertram, M., and Graedel, T. E.: Metal stocks and sustainability, PNAS, 103(5), 1209 (2006).
COPPER
Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase,
and because of increased energy cost of extraction with decreasing ore quality
Energy and greenhouse gas implications of deteriorating quality ore reserves; T.Norgate and S. Jahanshahi; CSIRO Minerals/Centre for Sustainable Resource Processing; URL : http://www.minerals.csiro.au
Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase,
COPPER COPPER
Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase,
Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials..
Gordon, R. B., Bertram, M., and Graedel, T. E.: Metal stocks and sustainability, PNAS, 103(5), 1209 (2006).
COPPER
because discovery of new ores does not compensate for exhaustion
Can materials consumption
be restricted by increased
efficiency of their use?
Material intensity* decreases steadily
* quantity of materials per unit of product decreases)
USA
UK
Japan
Does it mean that materials consumption will decrease?
F.Krausmann et al…
The socio-metabolic transition. Long term historical trends ...
Mineral/fossil
Biomass
Well,…materials consumption / capita INCREASES because … living standards rise
Krausmann at al… 2009
Dom
esti
c M
ate
rials
Con
su
mp
tion
and, thus, absolute materials consumption accelerates
exponentially
F. Krausmann , …. , M. Fischer-Kowalski, Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century, Ecological Economics, 68(10), 2696-2705 (2009).
also per capita !!
Can materials consumption
be restricted by increased
efficiency of their use?
Maybe, but it’ll take time…
Availability of materials
Can supply of materials
be increased rapidly if technological need
arises?
Natural Abundance of Elements in Earth’s Crust
can be misleading
Price scales as a power law with abundance
John R. Boyce, Biased Technological Change and the Relative Abundance of Natural Resources
Production volumes should also scale with abundance
Source of data: USGS, EIA, CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, others
Can the supply of materials that are (mining)
by-products*
be increased rapidly if technological need arises?
by-products
* contrast Se, Te, Ga, Cd,In,with primary (mining) products such as Fe, Cu, Al, Zn, Sn, Pb, cement, phosphate
Availability of materials produced as
How does the need for materials
that use mining by-products
affect abilities to switch to
renewable energy sources?
materials for solar cells
(valid until we pro-/re-gress[ed] to Pb…)
Let’s look at
L. Peter, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369, 1840–1856doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0348
Data for some thin film “PV elements”
ppm
$ /
tonne
Material’s availability for (thin film) PV: CdTe, CIGSto
nnes/
yr
Annual production of some “PV elements”
ABUNDANCE in
earth’s crust
COST
Annual production of Te in 2010 is
150 tonne (from Cu refinement)
Current recovery rate is 33–40%
Increasing installed CdTe PV capacity from current 0.01 TWpe to 0.1 TWpe requires a few times increase in Cu production.
In 2008 Cu production used 0.08% of world energy. Increasing production by a few times will not be possible (quickly).
Data from Minerals Yearbook ( US Geological survey) and
Fthenakis, V.: Sustainability metrics for extending thin-film photovoltaics to terawatt levels, MRS Bulletin, 37(4), 425 (2012).
Resource Availability, in metric tons Years to exhaustion
with the current
consumption rate and
technology
Annual production including recycling
Known resources
Indium (Zn,Al) 2010 574 N/A Probably <10
Gallium (Al, Zn) 2008 184 N/A Probably <10
Tellurium (Cu) 2010 155 22,000 140
Selenium (Cu) 2009(US declined to disclose)
2,280 88,000 39
Cadmium (Zn) 2010 22,000 660,000 30
Similar calculations can be done for other materials
Increase in Ga (or In) production requires increase in Al
production
Data from Minerals Yearbook ( US Geological survey)
How large can the increase be?Only 10% of Al producers extract GaSeem
s pra
ctica
lly
imposs
ible
But Si, Ti, Pb and organics… are available in really large quantities
Approximate energy cost production (GJ t-1)
Primary products
Aluminum 188Steel 29
Copper 135Cement 6
Iron ore 3Lead 31
Zinc 76Phosphate 0.35
Secondary productsGallium 50
Germanium 40Indium 40
Selenium 116Tellurium 116
Cadmium 4.5
36
Listed energy cost of the byproducts (excluding price of primary product)
Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials..
(large) increase in by-product production
requires
(large) increase in production of corresponding primary product
maybe possible (or find alternatives),
but not on short time* scales
So, where does this leave us?
* weeks /months/few years
Can recycling help?
Yes, at least partially Current recycling Apparent Extraction
Level (%) Efficiency (%)Pb >90 2Fe 55-65 23Al 40-50 15Sn >50 12Mg >40 7Cu >25 3Asphalt >75 --(in USA)Ammonia (fertilizer) none --Cement ( concrete) minor --
2010
But sizeable fraction of materials (still) can’t be / aren’t recycled
10.7 (32%)4 (12%)
1.5 (5%)
2 (6%)
3 (9%)
12 (36%)
steel cement ammonia aluminum plastics all other
Recycled already >50%
(Haber-Bosch)(Hall-Héroult)
1. We will need time to have flexibility in our ability to divert energy resources to new technologies.
2. Whether or not we can increase production of materials will depend on abundance and on if they are by-products.
3. Recycling can provide partial relief for a lot, though not all “major” materials.
Conclusions:
Sustainable energy availability sustainable materials availability?Sustainable energy availability is not exactly or always sustainable materials availability
So, here is
your
challe
nge:
We need new id
eas