How do we evaluate the effects of Climate Change?• How good is the _________?• What is happening _______?• What can be tied to climate change

vs. what is “normal”?• What is projected to happen in the

future?• How good are the _________?• What is “shaky” vs. what is “solid”?

Beware:• Focusing on ______________ rather

than trends in the data• ______________________ the data• Confusion between weather and

climate

Oroville 2014 vs. 2017

IPCC data

IPCC Projections

How warm will it get?

Arctic and Antarctic Warming• Arctic and Antarctic appear to be warming faster

than the rest of the planet (possibly as much as _________)

• Scientists estimate that the rate of melting of land ice has increased by 70% in the past decade (2015)

• Crack in Larsen C ice shelf is over 100 miles long and grew 17 miles in 2 months

Greenland and Arctic

Melting

Moulin formation sends water to base of ice and lubricates ice movement, which accelerates glacier flow into ocean (positive feedback)

Ayles Ice Shelf• >3,000 years old; one

of 6 remaining ice shelves in Canada’s arctic; size of shelves has decreased by up to 90% since 1906

• Glacier flow into ocean may become faster (“unstopping the cork”)

Recent studies in the Arctic reveal that the average sea ice cover is shrinking, and that the rate of shrinking is ______________If the sea ice

disappears, it could alter ocean _________ patterns, global ___________ patterns, accelerate global warming, and affect species that depend on the ice

Arctic Warming

Losing both extent and _____________ faster than models predicted

Arctic Sea Ice

Potential Disruption of Ocean CurrentsGulf Stream Current, aka AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) = part of ocean conveyor system• Bring the Western Europe __________winters• It moderates the_____________of Atlantic hurricanes• Lessens the risk of drought in North America, • Assures the health of monsoons in India.

S. Pole view of circ.

Disruption of Ocean Currents• AMOC has quickly collapsed in the past (<100 years)• A recent study suggests that the AMOC is not as _________ as

scientists previously thought. • The science is currently being debated (heavily model-dependent)• 2015 “Cold Blob” in Arctic slowed Global Conveyor Circulation

that year

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/what-a-real-debate-looks-like-in-climate-science/512444/?utm_source=atlfb

AMOC’s disappearance would • Worsen sea-level ______ on

the U.S. East Coast• Worsen intensity of tropical

storms in US Southeast. • Cause __________problems

in India, Europe, and Africa.

Effects of a Warmer and More Acidic Ocean

1)Less _____________2)Loss of __________3)Sea Level Rise4) More Intense ______

Ocean Acidification Videoshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxPwbhFeZSw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7MpI9dZIjk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0WA3PIknCM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-dqmL7dz8Q

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1AyIs1xNCk

Basic ChemistryAt higher concentrations of CO2, there is a lower concentration of carbonate ions available to form calcium carbonate shells.

1) Increased acidity inhibits carbonate formation

2) Increased temperatures cause corals to expel their algae. Since algae provide the color, this causes bleaching

Loss of Coral Reefs

Sea Level Rise• Has already risen __________• Most projections show about a

______ rise over the next century (but some projections indicate it could be as high as ___________)

Due not only to melting ice caps (on land), but to the thermal expansion of water

Nations at severe risk to sea level increase:- Low-lying island nations home to _______of world’s population-Coastal areas that include some ofworld’s largest cities.-Predicted to displace at least ______________people, especially in Bangladesh, Vietnam, China, …,by the end of the century

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/34335503#34417933http://www.nbclearn.com/changingplanet (select sea level rising)OR https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHbkmGljo_M

_____________- energy needed to change a substance to a higher state of matter. This same energy is released from the substance when the change of _______ (or phase) is reversed. The diagram below describes the various exchanges of heat involved with 1 gram (1 ml) of water.

Warmer Temperatures will lead to more evaporation of water and thus more ____________ in the atmosphere

Increase in the Intensity of Storms

Increase in the Intensity of Storms

Irene, 2011

Sandy, 2012

Warmer mid-Atlantic Temperatures can fuel hurricanes farther ________than in the past.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WyD2aiqP_s

Increase in the Intensity of Storms• Recent studies are indicating that the

increase in extreme winters in the US and Russia are due to the loss of __________at the poles.

• Normally, the large temperature gradient between the north pole and the equator leads to a ______________________that mildly oscillates around the north pole in winter.

Increase in the Intensity of Storms• Loss of sea ice and warming in

the arctic has led to a destabilization of the jet stream, causing it to _____________and _______________ (become more wavy) and bring polar air further _____________ than in the past.

• The slower, wavier jet stream can also be _____________, lasting for long periods of time, and bringing long cold spells to the US and Russia

Only Geophysical Events are not related to Climate

Increase in the Intensity of Storms

Increase in Extreme Weather EventsGlobal

USA

Potential large-scale water shortages as glaciers and snow packs become smaller:

• Most glaciers in the Himalayas are retreating __________, and the Gangotriglacier is retreating at 23 m/yr

• Rate of retreat has _________ in the past decade

• More than _____________ people depend on the Himalayan glaciers for water

Loss of Mountain Glaciers

Reduced water resources in some areas.- snow melt is an important summer water resource in many areas- could impact food production in Bolivia, Peru …-possible reduced ____________________ in some areas.

Possible Consequences of Global Warming

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/34335503#34335503

http://www.nbclearn.com/changingplanet (select melting of mountain glaciers) OR https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNjIjnFaqgQ

• Size of Cascade snowpack shows a ________ trend since the 1930’s, even though annual precipitation is increasing.

• Indicates that more precipitation is falling as rain in Cascades and/or an earlier melting of Cascade snow

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/34335503#34335503

Increase in __________ in Some AreasDecreased _______ Production?Will we be able to produce enough food?• Some food production could move

towards _________latitudes.• However, soil may be poor (coniferous

forest cause ________ soil etc.)• Also, very little land at higher

latitudes in the _____________ Hemisphere

Potential mass migrations of people away from coastal and drought-ridden areas, leading to _______________ of countries, and international crises in already over-populated areas

Exploding Populations of Mountain Pine Beetles in British Columbia, Canada

Increase in Frequency and

Intensity of Forest Fires

Increase in Frequency and

Intensity of Forest Fires

US Forest Fire Data, 1960-2007

Increase in Frequency and Intensity of Forest FiresData: • Wildfire season is starting earlier, ends later, and the fires

last longer compared to 30 years ago• _____________acres burned/year in US from 1985-1995• From 1995-2005, the average increased to __________

acres/yr• ~7x more forested land burned in 1987-2003 than during

the prior 17 years, and large fires were 4x more frequent.

Reasons:• ______________ snowfall and earlier

_____________reduce water supplies and leave forests dry for a longer period each summer.

• Longer and larger droughts.• Pine beetle damage leaves trees more prone to fire.

Due to a warmer, wetter climateIncrease in Amount of Infectious Diseases

Risks to Biodiversity• Shift of habitat to__________latitudes

or elevations

--Tree migration is __________ due to growth rate, so they might not be able to migrate fast enough

• Potential large loss of biodiversity

Risks to BiodiversityTropical Species: adapted

to _________ range in temperatures/locations

Mountain species: especially high altitude species

Coral Reefs and the species that depend on them: _________ , too warm ocean, acidification

Arctic/Antarctic Species: loss of __________

Bird Species: loss of habitat, impossible _____________

Future Scenarios• Projected warming of 1 to 4º C

between 2000 & 2100

• Likely scenario: ________ of CO2(from 280 ppm to 560 ppm) before 2100 leading to warming of _____

Source: IPCC

Oil rigTanker delivers CO2 from plant to rig

Coal power plant

Tree plantation

CO2 is pumped down from rig for disposal in deep ocean or under seafloor sediments

Abandoned oil field

Switchgrass Crop field

CO2 is pumped underground

Spent oil or natural gas reservoir

Spent coal bed cavern

Deep, saltwater-filled cavern

= CO2 pumping

= CO2 deposit

Sequestering Carbonhttp://www.youtube.com

/watch?v=gKkql80S

Problems with carbon capture and storage

– Power plants using CCS• Would be more expensive to build

– Unproven technology– Stored CO2 would have to remain sealed

forever: no leaking– Large inputs of energy to work

• Increasing CO2 emissions, negating some of “carbon offset”

– Promotes the continued use of coal (world’s dirtiest fuel)

Kyoto Protocol• In 1997, 161 nations met in Kyoto, Japan to negotiate a

new treaty on global warmingProvisions of treaty included:• Require ______ developed nations to cut greenhouse

emissions to pre-_______levels by ________ (EU by 8%, US by 7% and Japan by 6% below 1990 levels)

• No requirements for _____________ nations• Allow emissions trading whereby countries beating their

emission requirements could ________ their excess reductions to countries who hadn’t met their goals

• Protocol required ratification by countries accounting for ________of global emissions in order to take effect

Kyoto Protocol• 140 nations have ratified treaty,

but only _____developed nations will be bound by it

• US (world’s biggest emitter) refused to ratify it, on grounds that it would hurt the economy and that developing nations should be required to take part in cuts

• Senate voted ___________to not ratify the treaty

• In March, 2001, Bush also cited “incomplete state of scientific knowledge” as reason to renounce treaty

Kyoto Protocol• Without US, Russia was

needed to meet 55% goal of global emitters

• Russia ratified the treaty Nov, ________: it went into effect on Feb 14, 2005

• Australia signed in 2007• Governments must report

regularly on compliance. • Protocol enforcement

ends in 2012

Warsaw Climate Change Conference (2013)

A major issue at the 2013 follow-up to Kyoto is climate injustice. Climate injustice is the idea that many developing nations are more vulnerable to the environmental impacts of climate change, and yet most of the CO2 was emitted by developed nations.

Latest EPA RulingIn mid April, 2009, the EPA declared carbon dioxide and 5 other greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons , perflurocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride) to be air pollutants.

This ruling will start a process to create regulations for the emissions of these gases under the Clean Air Act. Standards for these gases and a regulatory process (cap-and-trade method etc.) have not yet been determined.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/18/science/earth/18endanger.html?scp=2&sq=greenhouse%20gases&st=cse

Paris Treaty 2016• set a goal of limiting global warming to less than ______

degrees Celsius (°C) compared to pre-industrial levels. The agreement calls for zero net anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to be reached during the second half of the 21st century.

• The agreement will become legally binding if joined by at least 55 countries which together represent at least _______ percent of global greenhouse emissions (by Earth Day 2016)

• President Trump has stated that he ____________the Paris Agreement, but has not taken action yet.

Policy Options for Reducing Threat of Global Warming

• Strictly regulate CO2 and CH4 as pollutants– Energy ___________

• ________________________• Level the Economic Playing Field

– Increase governmental subsidies to alternative energy so they can compete with older, polluting technologies

• Technology Transfer-Help fund green technologies in developing nations.