how do we prevent a food crisis in the midst of climate ...€¦ · 2 how do we prevent a food...
TRANSCRIPT
Kunmin Kim, Task Manager, ADBIHyunwoo Tak, Associate Research Fellow, Korea Institute of Public Administration
How Do We Prevent a Food Crisis in the Midst of Climate Change?
briefpolicy
Key Points • Theimpactsofextreme
eventsduetoclimatechange,suchasdroughts,floods,andtyphoons,alongwiththetemperatureriseduetoglobalwarming,areespeciallyimportantforfoodsecurity.
• Increasingsocioeconomicfactors,suchaspopulationandincome,aswellasthedeclineoftheagriculturesector,relatetoclimatechangeandacceleratethefoodcrisis.
• Thechallengesandimpactsofclimatechangeonagriculturecanbecategorizedinto(i) theinundationofagriculturallandandsalineintrusionduetosealevelrise,(ii) desertificationduetodrought,(ii)flooddamageandsoilerosion,(iv) typhoondamagetofoodcrops,cattle,andagriculturalfacilities,(v) reducedplantandlivestockgrowthduetocold,and(vi)reducedyieldsduetopestsanddiseases.
• DuringpastAsianfoodcrises,thegovernment’srolehasbeentoexpandthecultivatedarea,developanddisseminatehigh-yieldingseeds,andsubsidizeagriculture-relatedcosts,suchasthoseforfertilizer.Themostimportantsolutionisusingintergovernmentalfoodaidorganizationstoestablishinternationalgovernance.
No. 2018-2 (November)
© 2018 Asian Development Bank InstituteISSN 2411-6734
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Policy Workshop for Agricultural Innovation and Infrastructure Investment3–5 April 2018 Ha Noi, Viet Nam
Organized by the Asian Development Bank Institute and the United Nations Institute for Training and Research.
Thecurrentglobalwarmingtrendsareextremelylikelytobetheresultofhumansocialandeconomicactivitysincethemiddleofthe20thcentury(NASA2018).Evidenceof rapidclimatechangevariesand includesglobalaverage temperature increases,seawater temperature increases, ice sheet loss,glacier retreats, snowfall reduction,risingsea levels, the retreatofArcticsea ice,andextremeevents. Inparticular, theimpacts of extreme events due to climate change, such as droughts, floods, andtyphoons, along with the average temperature rise due to global warming, areespecially important for considerations surrounding food security. Indeed, climatechangewillhavefar-reachinginfluencesoncrop,livestock,andfisheriesproductionandwillchangetheprevalenceofcroppests(Campbelletal.2016).Asaconsequenceof thevast impactof increasingclimatechangeon foodproductionsystems, foodsecuritymightbethreatened(IslamandWong2017).TheWorldBank(2017)reportedthatfoodshortagesduetodroughtaresevereenoughtoaffect80 millionpeopleperday.Currently,400 extremeweathereventsoccuronaverageeachyear,andglobalclimatechangecontinuouslyincreasesclimatehazards.Theseeffectsaremoresevereinpoorcountriesandresultinproblemsincludinghousingshortages,poverty,andfamine (Oxfam 2018). Climate change, in particular, could give rise to food crises,whichwouldintensifypoverty(Figure1).
Climate Change and Food Crises in Asia
These changes in climate are associated with a surge in demand for resources.InAsia, resource consumption is expected to increase in the future as a result ofrising populations, economic development, increased food consumption, andchanges in consumption patterns due to rising incomes. Indeed, income levelsinmajor Asian countries have increased sharply, and the rate of income growthin Southeast Asia as well as that of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) hasbeen steep (Figure 2). Meanwhile, the population of Asia has been steadilyexpanding since 1950 (Figure 3). This increase in population and incomemeansa need formore resources. This enlarged resource consumption leads to various
ADBI Policy Brief No. 2018-2 (November) 2
Figure 1. Cascading Effects of Climate Change Impact on Food Security
Source: Singh (2017: 3).
Aquaticspecies
Cultivatedplants
Livestock
Forests
Selfconsumption
Price Quantity Quality
Market/Trade
Food Security and Nutrition
Incomes Food prices
PestsExtremeevents
Oceanacidi�cation
Temperature
Sea level rise
Agro Ecosystems
Agricultural productionand post-harvest
Climate change
Precipitation
Land degradation
Wateravailability
Ecosystems
Diseases
ProductiveCapital
Atmosphericcomposition
O3 CO2 CH4 N2O
Agricultural Livelihoods Other
LivelihoodsFarmers, �sherfolks,pastoralists, forest dwellers, etc.
Utilization StabilityAvailability Access
How Do We Prevent a Food Crisis in the Midst of Climate Change?2 3
Figure 2: GDP per Capita Trends of Asian Countries (log scale)
GDP = gross domestic product, Lao PDR = Lao People’s Democratic Republic, PPP = purchasing power parity, PRC = People’s Republic of China.
Source: Graph drawn by Gapminder. https://www.gapminder.org
500
5,000
50,000
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Bangladesh Cambodia PRCIndia Indonesia JapanLao PDR Malaysia NepalDemocratic People's Rep. of Korea Pakistan PhilippinesSingapore Rep. of Korea ThailandViet Nam
1 Modified from Kim and Ryu (2018). They present threemore challenges that affect agricultural production: qualification of farmers, lack ofinvestmentcapitaltobuildinfrastructureandsupportthetrainingoffarmers,andlackofpolicymechanisms(legal,politics,budgeting,etc.).
forms of environmental degradation, such as throughthe extraction of more resources, the depletion ofresources,increasingresourceprices,decreasingspeciesdiversity, greenhousegas emissions, landdegradation,water pollution, air pollution, and so on.These factorscontributetoandexacerbateclimate change.
In most Asian countries (excluding the DemocraticPeople’sRepublicofKoreaandSingapore),annualcarbondioxideemissionshaveincreased.TheemissionsgrowthrateappearssteepforBangladesh,Cambodia,Indonesia,thePRC,Thailand,andVietNam(Figure4).
While these trends in Asia can accelerate food crisesbroughtaboutbyclimatechange,theshareofagricultureingrossdomesticproductinAsiancountriesisshrinking(Figure 5). The Food and Agriculture Organization ofthe United Nations (2016) states that the effects ofclimate change on our ecosystems are already severeandwidespread and that ensuring food security in thefaceofclimatechangeisverychallenging.KimandRyu(2018) present the impacts and challenges of climatechangeonagricultureinsixcategories:1
1. Inundation of agricultural land and salineintrusionduetosealevelrise
2. Desertificationduetodrought3. Damageandsoilerosionofcropsandlivestock
causedbyfloods4. Damage to food crops and cattle caused by
typhoonsanddamagetoagriculturalfacilities5. Reduced growth of plants and livestock due
to cold6. Reduced yields of crops and livestock due to
pestsanddiseases
As a result, food shortages due to climate change andreducedinvestmentinacountry’sagriculturesectorcanacceleratea foodcrisis,emphasizingthe importanceofnationalandinternationalresponses.
ThenumberofundernourishedpeopleinthesubregionsofAsia tended todecline from2011 to 2016, except inWest Asia.Forinstance,EastAsiahadthestrongestdecreaseby more than 15 million people from 2011–2013 to2014–2016,followedbySouthAsia(5.4million),SoutheastAsia(600,000),andCentralAsia(300,000).Incontrast,the
ADBI Policy Brief No. 2018-2 (November) 4
Figure 3: Population Trends of Asian Countries (log scale)
Lao PDR = Lao People’s Democratic Republic, PRC = People’s Republic of China.
Source: Graph drawn by Gapminder. https://www.gapminder.org
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Bangladesh Cambodia PRCIndia Indonesia JapanLao PDR Malaysia NepalDemocratic People's Rep. of Korea Pakistan PhilippinesSingapore Rep. of Korea ThailandViet Nam
Figure 4: Annual CO2 Emissions of Asian Countries (log scale)
CO2 = carbon dioxide, Lao PDR = Lao People’s Democratic Republic, PRC = People’s Republic of China.
Source: Graph drawn by Gapminder. https://www.gapminder.org
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Bangladesh Cambodia PRCIndia Indonesia JapanLao PDR Malaysia NepalDemocratic People's Rep. of Korea Pakistan PhilippinesSingapore Rep. of Korea ThailandViet Nam
How Do We Prevent a Food Crisis in the Midst of Climate Change?4 5
Figure 5: Proportion of Agriculture in GDP of Asian Countries (%)
GDP = gross domestic product, Lao PDR = Lao People’s Democratic Republic, PRC = People’s Republic of China.
Source: Graph drawn by Gapminder. https://www.gapminder.org
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Bangladesh Cambodia PRC India IndonesiaJapan Lao PDR Malaysia Nepal PakistanPhilippines Singapore Rep. of Korea Thailand Viet Nam
numberofundernourishedpeopleinWestAsiaincreasedbymorethan3 millioninthesameperiod(Figure6).
Similar to the undernutrition trend, the food deficit inthe subregions of Asia tended to decrease from 2011
to 2016, except inWest Asia. Specifically, the averagefood deficit of East Asia had the strongest declineby 10 kilocalories per capita per day (kcal/capita/day),followedbyCentralAsia (7 kcal/capita/day),SouthAsia(6 kcal/capita/day), and Southeast Asia (4 kcal/capita/
Figure 6: Number of People Undernourished in Asia (3-year average)
Source: FAO (2018).
5.9
163.7
277
65.4
21.6
5.6
158.1
277.4
62.8
21.9
5.5
152.7
275.5
60.8
22.6
5.6
148.3
271.6
64.8
24.7
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Central Asia
East Asia
South Asia
Southeast Asia
West Asia
Million people
2014–2016 2013–2015 2012–2014 2011–2013
ADBI Policy Brief No. 2018-2 (November) 6
day).However,thefooddeficitofWestAsiaincreasedby6 kcal/capita/dayinthesameperiod(Figure7).
Experiences of Countries’ Food Crisis ResponsesThe value added of agriculture, forestry, and fishery(VAAFF) increased among regions during 1997–2016,especially in East Asia and the Pacific. For example,by 2016, the VAAFF of East Asia and the Pacific rosesignificantly by nearly $983 billion relative to that in1997. In the same period, the VAAFF of South Asiaincreaseddramaticallybynearly$349billionandthatoftheMiddleEastandNorthAfricabyabout$100billion(Figure8).
As shown in Figure 9, the food production indices ofregionstendedtogrowduring1997–2014.By2014,thefoodproduction indexof EastAsia and thePacifichadincreased by 1.8 times compared to 1997, followed bySouth Asia (1.7 times) and the Middle East and NorthAfrica (1.6 times). These increases imply that the foodproductionofregionsintheworld progressed.
WhatwillbeimportantforpolicyinAsiancountrieswhenfoodsecuritycrisesrelatedtoclimatechangeariseinthenear future is the valuable experience of respondingto the 2007–2008 food crisis in the region. The crisiswas brought about by the steep rise in food prices in2007–2008; each country tried to escape the crisis in
its own way. As a result, the Association of SoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)establishedtheASEANPlusThreeEmergency Rice Reserve (APTERR), an internationalfood crisis response organization providing food aid.Managingfoodsecurityanditssustainabledevelopmentisatremendouschallengeglobally.About1.7billionpoorpeople live in countries inSouthAsiaand sub-SaharanAfrica (Chen and Ravallion 2007), ofwhich 860millionpeoplearecoveredbyfoodsecurity(Misra2014).Wewilllookatthefoodpolicyofindividualcountriesatthetimeofthefoodcrisisandtrytoderiveimplicationsforfuturefoodcrisesrelatedtoclimatechange.
Each ASEAN member state has its own strategy inresponding to a food crisis.Thailand andVietNamaremajorriceexporters,whileIndonesiaandthePhilippinesarericeimporters.Myanmarisworkingtoobtainalevelof agricultural competitiveness that will enable thecountry toexport rice,which ithadpreviouslydone inthe1950s.BruneiDarussalamandSingaporeonlyimportthe best-quality rice. Although the approaches amongthe countries differ, all expect to achieve their targetsin terms of food security (Astriana, Arif, and Fadhilla2015). Malaysia has developed short- and long-termpolicymeasuresundertheNationalFoodSecurityPolicyfor enhancingpaddyand riceproduction, especially inSabahandSarawak.However,therehasbeenwidespreaddiscontentanddisequilibriuminthelocalplowlandandrice market due to irrational extensive interventionsin the Miller Subsidy and Beras Nasional programs(Tey 2010).
kcal = kilocalorie.
Source: FAO (2018).
Figure 7: Average Food Deficit in Asia (3-year average)
66 83114
76 65
6279
113
72 65
59
76
111
6866
59
73
108
7271
0
100
200
300
400
500
Central Asia South Asia
kcal/cap
ita/day
2011–2013 2012–2014 2013–2015 2014–2016
East Asia Southeast Asia West Asia
How Do We Prevent a Food Crisis in the Midst of Climate Change?6 7
In2007,theriseinfoodpricesinVietNamwasthemostimportantcauseofhighinflation.Itsimilarlyhadasevereimpact on the poor and low-income population. As aresult, the government made efforts to promote foodproduction, investing in irrigation facilities, setting upthe National Seed Program, stabilizing oil prices, andreducing or exempting irrigation fees. There are alsoplans to increase the yield of the third crop (autumn–winter), apply restrictions on agricultural land, andincreaseinvestmentinagriculturaltechnology.
RiskanduncertaintyareincreasinginSouthAsiabecauseof the greater frequency of extreme events due toclimate change as well as the increased possibility oftemperature-influenceddiseasesandpestsduetoglobalwarming(ShahandLele2011).Foodandwatersecurityin the regionhavegivenrise to thehighestprevalenceof both child and adult undernutrition.Therefore, landandwaterresourcemanagement inthis region ismoreurgentlyrequiredthananywhereintheworld(ShahandLele 2011).
Source: World Bank (2018a).
Figure 8: Value Added of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery of Regions in the World
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
US$
bill
ion
East Asia and the Paci�c (excluding high income)Middle East and North Africa (excluding high income)South Asia
Source: World Bank (2018b).
Figure 9: Food Production Indices of Regions in the World
East Asia and the Paci�c (excluding high income)Middle East and North Africa (excluding high income)South Asia
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2004
–200
6=10
0
ADBI Policy Brief No. 2018-2 (November) 8
Bangladesh has tried to address the shortage of rice,but the surge in food prices has been crucial (WorldBank 2010: 90). In 2007, three cyclones (respectivelyin July, September, and November) caused significantdamage to the aman (main monsoon season, June toOctober) andaus(shortseason,ApriltoMay) ricecrops.Duetothesecroplosses,thepriceofricebegantosoarandcausedpanic in the ricemarket in the lastquarterof 2007. Export restrictions in rice-exporting countriesled to soaring world market prices and aggravatedmarket instability. Tomakematters worse, India raiseditsminimumriceexportpricefrom$425permetricton(October 2007) to $1,000 permetric ton (March 2008).Tocounter this, thegovernmentandtheprivatesectorimported1.7millionmetrictonsofriceandimplementedapolicytostabilizericeprices.Effortsweremadetoraisefoodpricesbyadjustingricepurchaseprices,supplyingseeds, subsidizing chemical fertilizers, and increasingfood storage toprepare foremergencies.However, thedomestic price of rice had risen by more than 50%,leading togeneral price increases. Furthermore, effortstosupplyhigh-quality seeds to increasedomestic foodproduction were also hampered. As a result, incomegrowth stagnated due to deepening poverty in thecountry. In response to this foodcrisis, theBangladeshgovernment aimed to increase public food storage to1.5 millionmetrictons.
In Nepal, in view of the 2007–2008 food crisis, aswell as the country’s low average per capita incomelevel ($320 in2006)andhighpoverty rate (31%), theshare of food purchases in household consumptionis relatively high (World Bank 2010: 109). Furtherexacerbatingthesituationisthelackofasocialsafetynetforfood,thelimitedareaofagriculturalland,andlow agricultural productivity. When the food crisisbrokeout,people inthemountainousareasofNepalsuffered the most. As such, there is a difference inthe severity of the food crisis interregionally in thatithashadamoresevereimpactonpoorhouseholds.Consideringtherelatively longborderbetween IndiaandNepal,thereisactivericetradebetweenthetwocountries.Thus,thepriceofriceinthetwocountriesishighlycorrelated,andNepalassumestheroleofpricetaker. As a result, India’s export restrictions on ricesinceOctober2007putanupwardpressureonNepal(WorldBank2010:109).
Intermsofensuringfoodsecurity,Nepalhasprioritizedimproving its irrigation facilities to raise grainproductivity, increase trade in diverse seeds with highyields in terms of inputs to increase food production,and expand the share of agriculture in gross domestic
product. Taking into consideration the serious foodproblemsinmountainousareas,effortsarebeingmadetoincreaseaccessibilityinthenorthwesternregion.
India was the least affected by the food crisis in2007–2008.DomesticricepricesinIndiaarelessvolatilethaninternationalprices,andthegovernmentisdeeplyinvolvedinagriculturesothatdomesticfoodpricesarerelativelystable.By2007,foodpricesintheinternationalmarkethad increasedby160%,while Indianwholesaleprices rose by only 7.9%. This limited the impact ofinternational market price increases on domesticconsumersinIndia.However,India’sagriculturalgrowthrate is gradually decreasing, and countermeasures areneeded. Like other South Asian countries, the averageproductivityof agriculture in India isquite low (Kumar,Mittal, and Hossain 2008). Milesi et al. (2010) assertedthat the main reason for India’s poor productivity inagricultureis“perverseagriculturalpoliciesandsubsidyregimes”ratherthanclimatechange.
Investmentsinirrigationfacilitiesandwatermanagementare essential, and efforts are needed to strengtheninformation and knowledge on climate change andits effects. In addition, there should be emphasis onstrengtheningresearchanddevelopmentrelatedtoriceandwheat.
Suggestions for Ensuring Food SecurityBasedon theabovediscussion,weplan to findways torespond to a future food crisis. It is important to notethatsuchafoodcrisis inthefuture is likelytobeduetoclimate change. Increasing socioeconomic factors, suchaspopulation and income, aswell as thedeclineof theagriculture sector also relate to climate changeand canaccelerate the food crisis. Climate change can triggerthe occurrence of extreme meteorological events, suchas average temperature rises, rising sea levels, floods,typhoons, and droughts. The result is a decrease incultivated land, a decline in crop growth, and a shift inthe main crop growth environment and crop yields. Inparticular,thelowpredictabilityofextremeeventsmakesit difficult to prepare for a food crisis. In addition, pastexperience, particularly in 2007–2008, shows that foodcrisesoccurnotonlyatthenationallevelbutalsoattheinternational level and that, furthermore, the impact isgreaterthelowerthesocioeconomiclevel.
Of foremost importance is governance. There need tobe systems of governance to work on resolving food
How Do We Prevent a Food Crisis in the Midst of Climate Change?8 9
Table 1: Dimensions of Food Crisis Countermeasures
Dimension Proactive Measures Post-response MeasuresDomestic Diversificationoffood,expansionofcultivationarea,
andincreaseininvestmentsinagricultureandirrigationbusiness
Agriculturalsubsidies,foodpurchases,andgratuitousdistribution
International Stockpilingofcerealsthroughinternationalorganizations
Grantaidamongcountriesandexportandimportofgrain
Technology Developmentofagriculturaltechnologytoimprovecropyield(cultivarimprovement,fertilizerandpestcontrol,etc.),watermanagement,smartfarming,andresearchandtechnologytopredictforclimatechange
Analysisoffoodcrisissituation(influence,regionaldeviation,etc.),andplatformforcooperationbetweengovernmentandprivatesector
Source: Compiled by the authors.
crises among Asian countries or between the publicandtheprivatesectorswithincountries.Thebasisofthegovernment’sroleinthepastfoodcrisiswastoexpandthe cultivated area, develop and disseminate highyielding seeds, and subsidize agriculture-related costs,suchasoilandfertilizer. Inaddition, intergovernmentalfood aid organizations, such as APTERR, have beenestablished to ensure international governance at alltimes. While the food price hike between 2007 and2008 led to a food crisis in Asian countries, it alsoestablished an interstate system of countermeasuresand compelled each country to establish policies andresponsemeasures. One resulting evaluation could bethat the roleof thecountries thathavesuffereda foodcrisis and the manner of cooperation between thecountriesarestructuredinaformalway.
The solution for future food crises must be differentfrom the existing solution. Instead of resolving theproblem after a food crisis occurs, solving a climatechange-related food crisis will require advancemeasures.Inthefollowing,thesolutionstoafoodcrisisarelargelyexaminedintermsofdomestic, foreign,andtechnologicalaspects(Table1).
Asapreliminarycountermeasureat thedomestic level,one suggestion may be to expand investments inagricultureandirrigationprojects.Thereisalsoaneedtodiversifytheimpactintheeventofashortageofspecificcrops through the diversification of food demand.Furthermore,various subsidiesexist toprevent farmersfrom falling into poverty when a food crisis occurs, inadditiontothefreedistributionofstatestockpiles.
Proactive countermeasures at the international levelincludetheinstitutionalizationofthestockpilingofgrainforfreegrantsamongcountries.InAsia,APTERRisbeingimplemented.Post-responsemeasurescouldbetogrant
aid between countries and mutual assistance in theexportandimportofgrainortrade.
From a technical point of view, the development ofagriculturaltechnology(breedingimprovement,fertilizerand pest-related technology, etc.), water management,and smart farming are suggested for improving cropyields. In addition, efforts to advance climate changeresearchandforecastingtechniquesshouldbeincluded.Following a food crisis, it is important to identify theproblem by analyzing the size and variation of theimpactofthefoodcrisis.Afurtherrequirementistoshareinformationandresourcesusingaplatformthoughwhichgovernmentsandtheprivatesectorcancooperate.
Finally, there needs to be general agreement in termsof foodsecurityas countrieswillbe required toproducemorefoodonadeclininglandfarmingarea,withreducedwaterandlaborresourcesandinthefaceofmorevariableweather and increased consumer demand for safe food.Hence, exploring new sources of food production andreducing the large amounts of food loss and waste arefeasiblesolutionsinordertoenhancefoodproduction.Inaddition,foodtradeiscrucialforensuringtheavailabilityoffoodinallregionsoftheworld(TengandOliveros2015).
Climatechangeisaglobalphenomenon,buttheimpactsofrelatedfoodcrisesareexpectedtobegreaterinAsia,particularly in the context of the region’s industrialstructure, population structure, and food culture. Inthe long term, it will be necessary to actively andproactivelyrespondtofuturefoodcrisesatthenationaland international levels. It isnecessary toaddress foodsecurity in its broadest sense and integrate it in thedevelopment of agriculture worldwide. “Climate-smartagriculture”canbebuiltupbyimprovingtechnologyandmanagement systems to achieve global food security(WheelerandBraun2013).
ADBI Policy Brief No. 2018-2 (November) 10
Asian Development Bank Institute
ADBI, located in Tokyo, is the think tank of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Its mission is to identify effective development strategies and improve development management in ADB’s developing member countries.
ADBI Policy Briefs are based on events organized or co-organized by ADBI. The series is designed to provide concise, nontechnical accounts of policy issues of topical interest, with a view to facilitating informed debate.
The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of ADBI, ADB, or its Board or Governors or the governments they represent.
ADBI encourages printing or copying information exclusively for personal and noncommercial use with proper acknowledgment of ADBI. Users are restricted from reselling, redistributing, or creating derivative works for commercial purposes without the express, written consent of ADBI.
Asian Development Bank InstituteKasumigaseki Building 8F3-2-5 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-kuTokyo 100-6008JapanTel: +813 3593 5500www.adbi.org
ReferencesAstriana, F.,M.Arif, andA. Fadhilla. 2015.Achieving food security in ASEAN. SpecialVolume, Issue1,December.TheHabibie
CenterASEANStudiesProgramASEANBriefs.Campbell,B.M.,S.J.Vermeulen,P.K.Aggarwal,C.Corner-Dolloff,E.Girvetz,A.M.Loboguerrero,J.Ramirez-Villegas,T.Rosenstock,
L.Sebastian,P.K.Thornton,andE.Wollenberg.2016.Reducingriskstofoodsecurityfromclimatechange.Global Food Security 11:34–43.
Chen,S., andM.Ravallion.2007.Absolutepovertymeasures for thedevelopingworld,1981–2004.Washington,DC:WorldBank,DevelopmentResearchGroup,PovertyTeam.
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations (FAO).2016.Climate change and food security: Risks and responses.Rome.
———(2018).FAOSTAT.Suiteoffoodsecurityindicators.http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FS(retrieved6September).Islam,M.S.,andA.T.Wong.2017.Climatechangeandfoodin/security:Acriticalnexus.Environments4(2):1–15.Kim, J., and K. Ryu. 2018. Green growth and food security. PolicyWorkshop for Agricultural Innovation and Infrastructure
Investment,HaNoi,VietNam.Kumar,P.,S.Mittal,andM.Hossain.2008.AgriculturalgrowthaccountingandtotalfactorproductivityinSouthAsia:Areview
andpolicyimplications.Agricultural Economics Research Review21(2).Milesi,C.,A.Samanta,H.Hashimoto,K.Kumar,S.Ganguly,P.Thenkabail,A.Srivastava,R.Nemani,andR.Myneni.2010.Decadal
variationsinNDVIandfoodproductioninIndia.Remote Sensing 2:758–776.Misra, A.K. 2014. Climate change and challenges of water and food security. International Journal of Sustainable Built
Environment 3(1):153–165.National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). 2018. Global climate change. https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
(retrieved26August).OXFAM International. 2018. 5 natural disasters that beg for climate action. https://www.oxfam.org/en/campaigns/grow/
5-natural-disasters-beg-climate-action(retrieved26August).Shah,T.,andU.Lele.2011.Climatechange,foodandwatersecurityinSouthAsia:Criticalissuesandcooperativestrategiesinan
ageofincreasedriskanduncertainty.AGlobalWaterPartnership(GWP)andInternationalWaterManagementInstitute(IWMI)Workshop,Colombo,SriLanka,23–25February.
Singh,S.2017.Diverseeffectsofclimatechangeonagriculturalpests.doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15264.48646.Teng,P.P.,andJ.A.Oliveros.2015.ChallengesandresponsestoAsianfoodsecurity.Cosmos11(01):3–20.Tey,Y.S.2010.Malaysia’sstrategicfoodsecurityapproach.International Food Research Journal 17(3):501–507.Wheeler,T.,andJ.V.Braun.2013.Climatechangeimpactsonglobalfoodsecurity.Science 341(6145):508–513.WorldBank.2010.Food price increases in South Asia: National responses and regional dimensions.http://siteresources.worldbank.
org/SOUTHASIAEXT/Resources/223546-1269620455636/6907265-1287693474030/South_Asia_Regional_Food_Prices_Final.pdf
———.2017.Uncharted waters: The new economics of water scarcity and variability.Washington,DC.———.2018a.WorldDevelopmentIndicators.Agriculture,forestryandfisheryvalueadded.http://databank.worldbank.org/
data/reports.aspx?source=2&series=AG.PRD.FOOD.XD&country=#(retrieved6September).———. 2018b. World Development Indicators. Food production index. http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.
aspx?source=2&series=AG.PRD.FOOD.XD&country=#(retrieved6September).