How does the Colorado Department of Public Health& Environment Use Climate and Weather Data for

Forecasting and Planning Purposes?

The Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment (CDPHE) Air Pollution Control Division (APCD) is a major user of weather and climate data.

The APCD provides daily air quality forecasts, wildfire smoke

health advisories, and open burn forecasts for Colorado. The APCD performs a wide variety of atmospheric dispersion

modeling at various scales (microscale to regional scale) that require site-specific observations and climate data.

The APCD evaluates historic air quality episodes to provide a

better understanding of causes or to justify natural-event exclusions of values above standards.

A Sample Ozone Modeling Product IsPresented on the Next Slide.

Ozone modeling, conducted by Environ and Alpine Geophysicsfor the Regional Air Quality Council and CDPHE

in 2003 using the MM5 and CAMx models, showshigh concentrations along the Front Range foothills.

The Following Slide Provides an Example ofLocal-Scale Air Quality Modeling of an Industrial Source,

With High Concentrations Near the Source andAligned with the Axis of a Valley.

Climate Prediction Center’s Short-Term, One Month, Three Month, and Longer-Term Outlooks.

El Nino/Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussions. National Weather Service Standard Forecasts, Graphical and

Text. National Weather Service Air Quality and Smoke Forecasts. Denver-Boulder National Weather Service Experimental Fire

Weather Forecasts. Klaus Wolter’s Colorado Western States Long Range Outlooks

(from NOAA ESRL PSD).

The APCD Uses a Wide Variety ofForecast and Outlook Products

Models and data sets used include Mesoscale meteorological models - (such as MM5 and WRF), Synoptic scale forecast models - (such as the NAM and GFS), Surface and upper-level data to forecast air quality and understand

air quality climatology, Satellite imagery to identify real-time or historic fires, smoke, and

areas of blowing dust, NOAA’s back trajectory model data to characterize air quality

episodes and develop air quality climatologies - (HYSPLIT with EDAS40 data), and

Many products from the National Climatic Data Center, including

Integrated Surface Database observations.

NOAA back trajectories help us understand the climatology of ozone at four key monitoring sites.

These sites are Rocky Mountain National Park, Ft. Collins West,

Rocky Flats, and Highlands Ranch. Back trajectories show that much of the same-day transport is

from the Platte Valley area of the eastern plains.

A Sample Back Trajectory Analysis IsShown on the Next Slide

Color contours show the counts of back trajectory points for daytime transport toFort Collins, Rocky Mt. National Park, Rocky Flats & Highlands Ranch for thesummer of 2006.

The Following Slide Shows the Hayman Fire SmokePlume and the Response of Ground-level Ozone on

June 9, 2002.

Satellite imagery is keyin analyses of specificair quality episodes.

Smoke from the HaymanFire caused significantreductions in ground-levelozone during the peak dayof the fire.

National Center for Environmental Prediction “Reanalysis Data” Help Us Understand How Weather and

Climate Affect Air Quality and Are Often Used: To identify key variables affecting air quality. To determine important time scales in air quality climatology. To develop forecast regression models for ozone. To correct long-term trends in ozone for weather and climate.

The strength of the July upper level high pressure systems explains most of the year-to-year variations in mean ozone at many Colorado sites.

Knowledge of this relationship allows us to remove the effects of

weather from long-term trend data so we can see how changes in emissions affect ozone.

Reanalysis Data sets Are Key in Ozone Research

How does the Colorado Department of Public Health &Environment Use Weather and Climate Data for

Emergency Response?

The Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment (CDPHE) uses two complex, mesoscale emergency response dispersion models.

One is the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s (DTRA’s) Hazard

Prediction & Assessment Capability (HPAC) model. CDPHE also has online access to the National Atmospheric

Release Advisory Center (NARAC) emergency response modeling system.

Surface, upper air, and high-resolution forecast data are

accessed through data servers operated by NCAR, NOAA, and DTRA.

NARAC ModeledPlume Footprint forDirty Bomb inDowntown Denver

Climate Change & Global WarmingWill Create Challenges for Public Health and

Environmental Quality.

How will climate change impact beetle kill, forest health,

wildfire frequencies and intensities, and blowing dust? How will climate change affect water quality and

quantity?

How will climate change affect human heat stress and related illnesses?

How will it affect zoonotic diseases, such as plague and

other insect and animal-borne diseases?

How will global warming affect tropospheric and ground-level ozone?

How Does Colorado Work with Other States on AirQuality Issues?

CDPHE works collaboratively with other states individually and through various organizations and partnerships.

Many regional air quality, modeling, and data issues are

addressed by these organizations. Examples include: o Western States Air Resources Council (WESTAR). o National Association of Clean Air Agencies (NACAA),

which represents air pollution control agencies in 53 states & territories and over 165 major metropolitan areas.

o Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) for

collaboration on regional air quality modeling to address regulatory issues such as regional haze control.

CDPHE works collaboratively with local, state, and federal agencies as well as the private sector on specific air quality issues. Examples include:

o Four Corners Air Quality Task Force o Case-by-case collaboration with atmospheric scientists

in adjacent states on specific air quality issues o Case-by-case collaboration with private sector

atmospheric scientists to study air quality issues related to industrial sources of air pollution

o Special Air Quality Studies (e.g., Denver Brown Cloud

Study, Mount Zirkel Visibility Study, Northern Front Range Air Quality Study)

If a National Climate Service Existed, What HelpfulInformation and Delivery Systems Would It Include?

Improvements in satellite measurements of ground-level or tropospheric

concentrations of air pollutants in Colorado. Easier online access to satellite measurements such as nitrogen dioxide

data from the OMI program. Enhanced GIS products. Tracking and forecasting local climate change and climate change

impacts for a better understanding of the actual or expected effects in Colorado.

Offering “approved” ensemble forecasts of climate change in Colorado? Archived WRF and/or MM5 model runs for air quality modeling? Online conversion of NetCDF or GRIB formatted data for non-model

use?

The University of Utah’s MesoWest web page is a prime example of

a service that addresses our multiple data needs with a user-friendly interface. MesoWest provides:

o High-resolution surface observations in multiple map formats. o Maps of current wildfire perimeters useful for Wildfire Smoke

Health Advisory forecasting.

o Data tables that can be accessed directly.

o Access to historical weather data.

o CDPHE uses this site for emergency response, air quality and wildfire smoke forecast, historical air quality episode analysis tasks, and to obtain data for various air quality modeling efforts.

Another good example of the type of service that is useful for air

quality analysis is the NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database Access. It provides:

o Easy access to soundings for a user-specific period o Access to data in a variety of formats o Access to data in graphical formats