how (ecological economics) tools can benefit river … of...full world" model of the economy...

Assoc Prof Marjan van den Belt mvandenbeltmasseyacnz

wwweernzmasseyacnz

wwwifsorgnz

10 December 2013 Bay of Plenty Regional Council Tauranga NZ

How (ecological economics) tools

can benefit River Scheme

Sustainability and Regional Flood

Risk Framework Projects

Overview

bull Session 1 (10 ndash 1050 AM) Economics

bull Session 2 (11 ndash 1150 AM) Participatorycollaborative processes

bull Session 3 (12 ndash 1250 AM) Ecosystem services systems thinking and multi-scale integrated tools

Overview




Neo-classical Economics

and Ecological Economics

Tools for establishing Economic value at the margin for people

Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA)

bull Options benefits and assumptions have to be clear

bull Project-oriented rather than systems-oriented

bull lsquoAll-else-is-equalrsquo needs to be agreed upon at least in the short run

bull Cost and benefits have distributive aspects

bull Are the benefits from a CBA bigger than the cost of a CBA

bull See CBA report of 5 options from IFS on wwwifsorg

Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA)

bull Determine a specific measurable achievable realistic time bound goal

bull Develop alternative pathways toward that goal

bull Calculate the cost toward that goal

bull Reveal all assumptions to get to goal

Economic Impact Analysis (EIA)

bull Traces dollars and employment through economic sectors at local and national level

bull Limited to lsquoeconomicrsquo activities only price isnrsquot equal to value

bull What is good for local level isnrsquot always good for national level

bull Example EIA report of 5 options from IFS on

wwwifsorg

Same base (SNA) different perspective

9

Economic Impact Analysis Cost Benefit Analysis

Gross benefit

Consumer

surplus

Gross output

Producer

Operating surplus

surplus - to owners

- to labour

Employee Labour input

compensation (opportunity

(market prices) cost)

Indirect taxes Subsidies less

less subsidies indirect taxes

Fixed capital Fixed capital

consumption consumption

Resource Resource

inputs inputs

at cost at costN

et b

enef

it

Val

ue a

dded

(GD

P co

ntrib

utio

n)

Cost

Inte

rmed

iate

cons

umpt

ion

Source

NZIER Peter Clough

presented at NZIAI

on 29 Nov 2013

Total Economic Value =

Market Valuation and

Non-Market Valuation

Total Economic Value (TEV) used in Rapid Ecosystem Service Assessments

egManawatu-Wanganui

Direct

$1193

Indirect

$4820

Ecosystem Services

Estimate $6013

Regional GDP

$7405

Possible Total Ecosystem

Services Value ($)

Notes

bullAll values in $2006millions

bullAreas donrsquot represent exact

relative sizes

= Marketed Ecosystem Services

= lsquoHiddenrsquo Ecosystem Services

+ Ecosystem Services

Estimate $6013

=

Benefit Transfer

ES value in US94$

33 trillion

GDP in US94$

18 trillion

ES value in NZ94$

228 billion GDP in NZ94$

84 billion

ES in NZ2006$

6 billion

GDP in NZ2006$

74 billion Sources Costanza et al 1997

Patterson and McDonald 1999

van den Belt et al 2009

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND

MANAWATU-WANGANUI

Total Economic Value (TEV)

Use Value Non-Use Value

Commercial

Use Value

In situ

Use Value Option Value Bequest

Value Existence

Value

Eg Irrigation

Electricity

Direct eg Swimming

Indirect eg Angling

Commercial

Non - commercial

Eg Habitat

Eg Species

preservation

Balancing Use and Non-Use Values at the margin

Marginal Use value Marginal Non-Use value

Neo-classical Economist Ecological Economist

bull Because worldview is different

bull Human Capital challenge

bull At the margin trade-offs also has limitations ndash limited substitutability not optimization but systems challenge

bull All approaches require context on ecological scale fairness of distribution and efficiency of allocation

Non-market valuation in NZ

bull Rarely influential in practical public policy

bull Environment Court limitations

bull Existing studies are ad hoc and often not well tailored to illuminating specific trade-offs at the margin

bull Benefit transfer requires context

Where we agreehellip

bull NMV techniques can be informative of trade-offs and relative values in certain circumstances

bull Test results for consistency with observed behaviour

bull Preference order is useful even if $ values doubtful

bull Do NMV more often and better to articulate choices

bull Cost of primary study precludes use in all cases

Assumptions behind Economic Valuation bull Value = Price

bull System of National Accounting (SNA)

bull Growth (of Gross Domestic Product - GDP)

bull lsquoAll-else-equalrsquo ndash Ceteris Paribus

bull People behave like rational utilitarians

bull Ecosystem is substitutable rather than fundamental or complementary to the Economy

bull Discount rates

P

R

I

C

E

QUANTITY

Supply

Demand

Do people

behave like

rational

utilitarians

Accessed 20313 Blogspotcom

What happens

when all-else-is-

NOT-equal

Source Senge 2012

Ecological Economics

ldquoA trans-disciplinary enquiry into the re-creation of value

propositions with the goal of sustainable developmentrdquo

Oikos means home ndash a place of relationships

between all forms of life

Logos means the knowledge of our home

Nomos means management of that home

Ecologically Sustainable Scale

lsquoFullrsquo Worldrsquo

Socially Fair Distribution

The Dominion Post 19 Sep 2012

Source HE Daly Economics in a Full World Scientific American Vol 293 Sept 2005

Economically Efficient Allocation

rdquoEmpty World Model of the Economy

Manufactured

Capital

Labor

Land

Production Goods and

Services

GDP

Individual Utility

Social Well-fare Private Public

Property rights

Cultural

Norms

and

Policy

Investments

Buildings infrastructure

Education

Land improvements

rdquoFull World Model of the Economy

Adapted from Costanza R J C Cumberland H E Daly R Goodland and R Norgaard

1997 An Introduction to Ecological Economics St Lucie Press Boca Raton 275 pp

Manufactured

Capital

Human

Capital

Natural

Capital

Production

Goods

and

Services

Well-being

Individual and

Community

measured by lsquoGPIrsquo Individual Public

Property rights

Cultural

Norms and

Policy

managed

adaptively

Investments

based on

complex

property

rights and

ecosystem

benefits

Social Capital

Common

Ecosystem

benefits

lsquoWastersquo

Solar

Energy

Heat

Natural Capital Ecosystems and the services they provide

Source FreeDigitalPhotosnet

Human capital Health education knowledge and the ability to address complex challenges and adapt to new circumstances

Social Capital Rules norms and behavior governing how individuals interact Family hapuiwi social networks and fabric trust resilience

From R Putnam

Bowling Alone The

Collapse and Revival of

American Community

NewYork Simon and

Schuster 2000)

Social Capital

index by State in

USA

Built Capital Infrastructure technology transport


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Year

New Zealand Genuine Progress Indicator versus Gross Domestic Product

GDP GPI

$N

Z2006B

illio

n

Adapted from Forgie VE McDonald GE Zhang Y Patterson MG DH Hardy 2008 In lsquoSustainable Welfare in the Asia-Pacific Studies Using the Genuine Progress Indicatorrsquo pp-126-152 Lawn PA and Clarke M Edward Elgar Cheltenham

US

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

UK

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Germany

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Austri a

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Netherland s

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Sweden

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Chile

40

90

140

190

240

1940 1960 1980 2000

Indices of ISEW (Index of SustainableEconomic Welfare)

and GDP (1970 = 100)

Investing in natural capital and getting a return on investment (ROI)

Catskills in New York USA Water supply by Natural or Built Capital

$8 billion to build $250

millionyear to maintain $15 billion

Manawatu River Catchment NZ Flood protection by Natural or Built Capital

$NZ 18M budgeted for building

and maintaining over 10 years NZ$ to restore forest and wetlands

Key aspects of investment in natural capital and ecosystem services

bull Price and value

bull Time preferences

bull Across urban-rural-conservation gradient and connecting farmlocal national and global scale multi-scale

C in $

A in $

B in $ D in Ecosystem Services

E in $

F in Ecosystem Services

Private Assets Financial Capital Natural Capital

Public and

Common Benefits

Private and public values

Return on Investment

C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits

Time preference and discount rate


Time scale 3-30 Years 10-100 years Seasonal Days

Discount rate High Low Multiple Negative

Getting a ROI on natural capital and ES

bull Current investment strategies short-term monetary value single objective high discount rate

bull Investment in natural capital long-term consider non-monetary values deal with multiple objectives and multiple scales negativelowmultiple discount rate

It matters where and how investments happen who benefits

Simple

Complicated

Complex or ldquowickedrdquo

Neo-classical

Economics and

disciplinary science


and trans-disciplinary science

Risk and Uncertainty

lsquoIt is better to be roughly right than precisely wrongrsquo

A Einstein

Adaptive Management Capacity

Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR

Take away message session 1

bull Neo-classical economics and ecological economics differ in worldview

bull Tools and their underlying assumptions need to be used in transparent manner Eg Market and non-market based valuation discount rates crucial to understanding value perspectives

bull Ecological Economics offers a worldview of sustainable development new tools and seeks to develop adaptive capacity toward implementation

Differences between the current empty world model and the full world model From Costanza R 2008 Stewardship for a ldquofullrdquo world Current History 10730-35

Assoc Prof Marjan van den Belt

mvandenbeltmasseyacnz wwweernzmasseyacnz

wwwifsorgnz

21st June 2013 Prepare for the Future Workshop Wellington NZ

How (participatory and collaborative ) tools can

benefit our RSS and River Scheme

Sustainability and Regional Flood Risk

Framework Projects

Eg Envisioning scenarios planning and other

Overview



bull Session 3 (12 ndash 1250 AM) Ecosystem services systems-oriented and spatial tools


Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR

Places to intervene in a system

Meadows D 2010 Leverage Points Places to Intervene in a System Solutions 1(1)41-49

1 Numbers constants parameters (taxes subsidies etc)

2 Size of buffers and stabilizing stocks relative to their flows

3 Structure of material flows (transport network age of population)

4 Length of delays relative to rates of change

5 Strength of negative feedback loops

6 The gain of driving positive feedback loops

7 The structure of information flows (who does and doesnrsquot have information)

8 The rules of the system (incentives punishments constraints)

9 The power to change evolve self-organize

10 Changing the goals of the system

11 The mindset or paradigm out of which rules structure parameters arise

12 The power to transcend paradigms

Our most important challenge

To create and communicate a shared vision of a

sustainable and desirable future

Principles of Effective Envisioning

from Meadows D 1996 Envisioning a Sustainable World pp 117-126 In Getting Down to Earth Practical Applications of Ecological Economics R Costanza O Segura and J Martinez-Alier (Eds) Island Press

Donella (Dana) Meadows 1941-2001

Envisioning a desirable future

Back Casting

httpwwwuvmedugieeESDA httpwwwgtinitiativeorg

Also see Pollock N E Horn R Costanza and M Sayre 2009 Envisioning Helps Promote Sustainability in Academia A case study at the University of Vermont International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education Vol 10 No 4 pp 343-353 (Available at httpwwwuvmedugiee)

ldquoIf you donrsquot know where yoursquore going you end up somewhere elserdquo

Yogi Berra

Scenario planning assumptions 1The future is unlike the past and is significantly shaped

by human choice and action

2The future cannot be foreseen but exploring possible

futures can inform present decisions

3There are many possible futures scenarios therefore map

within a lsquopossibility spacersquo

4Scenario development involves both rational analysis and

creative thinking

Independent Aotearoa

Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Adapted from Work in progress four future scenarios for New Zealand Developed by the Landcare Research Scenarios Working Group documented with additional commentary by Rhys Taylor Bob Frame Kate Delaney and Melissa Brignall-Theyer 2nd ed ndash Lincoln NZ Published by Manaaki Whenua Press 2007

Game Participantsrsquo Perceptions of where NZ is in 2006-7

Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted

Identity Individual Identity Collective


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Games Participantsrsquo Desired Location for NZ in 2055

Work in progress four future scenarios for New Zealand Developed by the Landcare Research Scenarios Working Group documented with additional commentary by Rhys Taylor Bob Frame Kate Delaney and Melissa Brignall-Theyer 2nd ed ndash Lincoln NZ Published by Manaaki Whenua Press 2007

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted

Current Trend Direction from 2006 (starting near the centre)



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted


Do lsquothe fewrsquo see it coming

TechnologicalOptimism

Resources are unlimitedTechnical Progress candeal with any challenge

Compitition promotesprogress markets are the

guiding principle

Optimists Are Right(Resources are unlimited)

Skeptics Are Right(Resources are limited)

Real State of the World

Star TrekFusion energy becomespractical solving manyeconomic and environmentalproblemsHumans journey to the innersolar system where populationcontinues to expand

(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy

from Costanza R 2000 Visions of alternative (unpredictable) futures and their use in policy analysis Conservation Ecology 4(1)5 [online]

URL httpwwwconsecolorgvol4iss1art5

TechnologicalSkepticsm

Resources are limitedProgress depends less ontechnology and more on

social and communitydevelopment

Cooperation promotesprogress markets are the

servants of larger goals

Big GovernmentGovernments sanctioncompanies that fail to pursuethe public interestFusion energy is slow todevelop due to strict safteystandardsFamily-planning programsstabilize population growthIncomes become more equal

(mean rank 08)

Mad MaxOil production declines and noaffordable alternative emergesFinancial markets collapse andgovernments weaken too broketo maintain order and controlover desperate impoverishedpopulationsThe world is run bytransnational corporations

(mean rank -77)

EcoTopiaTax reforms favor ecologicallybeneficent industries and punishpolluters and resource depletersHabitation patterns reduce needfor transportation and energyA shift away from consumerismincreases quality of life andreduces waste

(mean rank 51)

Four Visions of the Future

Number of respondents

R

a

t

i

n

g

STARTREK MAD MAX BIG GOVT ECOTOPIA

23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP

Quantity growth Commodity production

Maximize production Externalize costs

Broader focus GPI Quality development Comprehensive value Optimize multiple values Internalized costs

Overreach Steady State

Business as usual

Technology will save us

Scales bull Farm bull Community bull State (National and World as context)

1

2

3

4

Source Applied Ecological Economics 132705 class of 2011 Four future scenarios based on

an emphasis on GDP vs GPI and cheap vs expensive energy

Jarchow M et al (in review) The Future of Agriculture and Society in Iowa Four Scenarios

Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services

Climate Disruption Severe (Growth focused policies at Global Scale)

Climate Disruption Mild (Quality of Life focused policies at Global Scale)

Quality of Life focused local policies

Economic Growth

focused local policies

Trashing the Commons

Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds

Percent coral cover for the four scenarios TC = Trashing the Commons FR = Free Riders TW = Treading Water BBW = Best of Both Worlds


Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)

Catchment and Reef Ecosystem Services (CARES)

Comparison of scenarios from several exercises

Mediated Modelling lsquoModel building with rather than for peoplersquo

Auckland Mediated Modelling Sustainable Pathways 2 2012

What is Mediated Modelling

Understanding and Consensus Building

Mediated Discussion

High level of Understanding of Complex Systems

High level of Consensus

Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling

Low level of Consensus

Low level of Understanding of Complex Systems

Specialized model whose

recommendation never get

implemented because they lack

stakeholder support

Consensus on both problemsgoals and

process leading to effective and

implementable policies

Confrontational debate and no

improvement

Consensus on goals or

problems but no help on

how to achieve the goals or

solve the problems

High Interest in topic

Participation

Decision Making Power and Interest

Stakeholders who donrsquot see an immediate link

High Decision Making Power

Unengaged Public

Represented stakeholders

amp engaged public

Mediated Modelling participants

Low Decision Making Power

Low Interest in topic

Late

Early

Low High

Stakeholders design a model

within a frame

bullTo solidify learning from

collaborative interaction

bullTo integrate existing research

Expert model

bullTo invite feedback from

stakeholders

Individual stakeholders

viewpoints are regarded

early in participatory

process Modeller

maintains model

Stakeholders design the model

without a pre-fixed frame

bullTo scope out the questions

bullTo build capacity among

stakeholders

bullTo serve as a benchmark for

follow-up actions

Timing vs Participation

Model buildinghellip bull Structures a complex dialogue

bull Provides a space for collaborative learning

bull Maintains focus on interlinkages

bull Identifies gaps in knowledge

bull Integrates existing science (data is used to populate the model between workshops)

bull Replicates historic trends and explores future scenarios

bull May be part of an adaptive management toolbox

Mediated Modelling Story telling about inter-linkages

Goals

Indicators

SMART plan implementation and monitoring

Vision

Understanding lsquotruersquo value

lsquoTruersquo Value

GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040

Survey Results ndashPost Workshops

Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now

82 Pre- survey ndash Where ideally like to be

in 2030

72 Pre-survey - where it can be in 2030

62 Post-survey ndash where it can be in 2030

23 Pre-survey - Fear where it might be if

nothing happens

Navigating the dialogue between what is desired and feared

My favourite participatory approaches

bull Envisioning

bull Scenario Planning

bull Mediated Modelling

bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013

Account-ability the ability to account for collaborations

Source Senge 1995


bull Through envisioning re-think value propositions and develop creative tension

bull Tools to navigate the space between preferred and feared futures and provide a basis for account-ability for collaborations at structural level



wwwifsorgnz


Ecosystem Services systems thinking system

dynamics and spatial tools

How (assessment) tools can benefit our RSS and River Scheme Sustainability

and Regional Flood Risk Framework Projects

Overview




bull Systems Thinking System Dynamics

bull Flood protection an investment trap The story behind the model and scenarios

bull Mediated Modelling Tauranga Harbour (2010-2011)

bull Multi-scale integrated framework for Ecosystem Services

Overview

Fostering Adaptive Capacity both Natural and Social Science in Integrated Assessments

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR

lsquoEcosystem Servicersquo paradigm

lsquoThe benefits people obtain

from ecosystemsrsquo Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2002-2005)

Source Foley et al 2005 Global consequences of land use Science 309570-574

Ecosystem Benefits

from lsquoproductiversquo landscapes from

conservation agricultural to urban

Linear Thinking

Development

on river banks Flood risk Flood protection

Systems thinking

Investment in BuiltFlood protection

Investment inBuilt assets

Tax

+

+

Protection fromflood

+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP

Unintended consequences ndash can be used to recognizeanticipate patterns



Tax

+

+


+

+

Natural capitalproviding flood

protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS

Can be used to understand what forces are at play and design systemic

structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+

Systems Thinking archetype lsquoLimits to growthrsquo

Renamed lsquoSlow abundancersquo

Built FloodProtection

BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S

Natural Capital asFlood Protection

S

River Water andFlood Events

S

S

O

SLOW

FAST

Source van den Belt et al2013

Positive Archetypes for freshwater

management System Dynamics

Conference Boston USA

Story telling with models in STELLA

Damage to built infrastructure

Depreciation of

Built infrastrcuture

River engineering in $M

Investment river engineering

Depreciation of

river engineering

Built infrastructure in $B

Damage to river engineering

Investment in Built

infrastructure

Flood protection fundingTax rate

Wetland storage per ha

Annual rainfall in mm

Percentage investment

in for afforestation

Cost of afforestation in

thousands of $ per ha

Cost of wetland restoration

in thousans of $ per ha

Catchment area in km2

River overflow

Forest dampening

coefficient SHORT TERM

Wetlands in ha

Annual wetland development

Headwater forests in ha

Annual afforestation

SLUI budget in 10 year

plan in thousand $ per year

~

Wetland restoration effort

Wetland establishment delay

Percentage funding

for river engineering

Percentage funding

for wetland restoration

Rainfall coefficient

Erosion control

coefficient LONG TERM

Erosion control delay

Flood damage coefficient

Afforestation effort

River water m3 per sec

River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands

Desired Headwater Forest

Headwater Forest Target

Wetland Target

+

+

+

BUILT CAPITAL NATURAL CAPITAL

Scenarios Natural vs Built Capital

Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low

Built Capital High Low

Built Capital

Scenario 3

Balance between Built and

Natural Capital

Production of goods and services in harmony

with production of ecosystem benefits

Understanding inter-dependencies and

lsquotipping pointsrsquo

Scenario 1

Costly flood protection and loss of

benefits derived from ecosystems

Scenario 2

Back to pre- or early settlement

Post overshoot when eroded

natural capital and loss of

ecosystem benefits erode the

basis for built capital

Scenario 1 All Built Capital

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M

CUMMULATIVE FLOOD PROTECTION COSTS

Scenario 2 All Natural Capital

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Scenario 3 Balance between BC and NC

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

1 ALL INVESTMENTS IN BUILT CAPITAL

2 ALL INVESTMENTS IN NATURAL CAPITAL

3 BALANCED INVESTMENTS


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Budgeted vs Modelled Flood Protection Costs (calibration of model against budgets)

Budgeted in 10-year plan (cumulative)

Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

Ecosystem Service Value vs River Engineering Costs

Ecosystem Service Value in $M

River Engineering in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

Ecosystem Service Value

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services

Interim take away message lsquoinvestment trap examplersquo bull Stakeholders in the Manawatu catchment need to

consider if they are caught in an overshoot situation caused by an lsquoinvestment traprsquo with regard to flood protecting built assets and infrastructure

bull Understanding the role of investments in natural capital is timely to benefit from flood protection as one ecosystem service

bull Causality (feedback loops) and time lags are critical characteristics in developing value propositions

Modelling with stakeholders but

Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation Policy Management

Dynamic Non-Spatial

Mediated Modelling of Tauranga Coastal Ecosystem Services

Workshop schedule

Date Event

17 Nov 2010 Workshop 1 ndash Intro overview model sectors and land use

15 Dec 2010 Workshop 2 ndash Ecosystem Services

19 Jan 2011 Workshop 3 ndash Economic drivers Values of Ecosystem Services

16 Feb 2011 Workshop 4 ndash Indicators Targets Scenarios and Timelines

4 May 2011 Workshop 5 ndash Simulation Findings Recommendations and

Dissemination

Participants MM Tauranga Harbour bull Tauranga City Council

bull Western BoP

bull BoPRC + Coast Care

bull NZ Landcare Trust

bull Forest amp Bird

bull Dept of Conservation

bull Zespri

bull Ballance Fertilizer and Agri-Nutrients

bull Federated Farmers

bull Toi Te Ora Public Health

bull BoP Polytechnic

bull Port of Tauranga

bull Tangata Whenua Waka Taiao Manaaki Taiao

bull Tauranga Environment Centre

bull Wildland Consultants

bull Olsen Contracting

bull Camber of Commerce

bull Kaimai Mamaku Campaign Committee

bull Trust Power

Survey Results

Question 5 ndash Health of Tauranga Harbour participant perceptions (Scale 1ndash10)

10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)

85 Like it to be in 2030 (range=710)

7 Where it can be realistically be in

2030 if action taken (range=610)

3 Fear where it might be if nothing

done (range=16)

1

Survey Results

Question 4 ndash Ranking of the relative importance of the four factors

Environmental sustainability

Economic outcome

Social impact on community

Cultural values

Red Environmental (7) Green Cultural (3)

Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)

ldquoEnvironmental sustainabilityrdquo ranked 1st or 2nd for nearly everyone

Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S

Land use cover and natural capital

GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities

Population calibration

Calibration ldquoavailablerdquo bull Urban areas

bull Indigenous forest

bull Production forest

bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP

Assumptions in the structure

Assumptions over time

Scenario 1 ndash what if there is no limit of for urban areasprawl

Then population will more than double

Scenario 1

Sprawl may reduce the sedimentation under the assumption that runoff

from urban areas are lower than from pasture

Urban area is mainly converted pasture in this model

Sensitivities

Ecosystem service value very sensitive to assumed ldquoES valuesrdquo

Blue line base setting mainly based on generic values

Red line maximum values

Recommendation continue investigation in ES for Tauranga

Future model improvements

bull Shellfish and seafood population changes and their causes

bull Cultural Health indicator

bull Dynamic economic sector and interconnection with ecosystems

bull Ecosystem service ldquoproduction curvesrdquo

bull Solution ldquoproduction curvesrdquo

bull Link in water demand and water allocation threshold into all relevant sectors

bull Insert delays of responses to actions

Example lsquoFindings lsquo helliphellip etc bull Is the model at a point where it can be communicated

usefully

bull There continues to be a need for land use and data translation and compilation and understanding from an integrated systems perspective

bull The benefits of the aggregated systems approach is that it allows several separate conversations to come together and identify the need for leadership in the absence of ldquodata and certaintyrdquo

bull The disadvantage of the aggregated approach is the lack of spatial explicitness the on-going wish for more data to increase the understanding of the system

bull

Example lsquoRecommendation 1rsquo hellipetc bull It was clearly very important to consider the cultural ldquovoicerdquo

during workshop discussions However we didnrsquot attempt to model this A future adapted version of the model could include the results of the on-going Cultural Health Indicator study that is proposed for the next phase of MTM

bull An lsquooffset rates systemrsquo is required to help pay for the maintainance of important ecosystems in Tauranga harbour Initiate impact feesdispensations for ecosystem damagerestoration initiatives A Centralised Hub to deal with all issues with all councils working together alongside key community representatives This observation included the idea to explore payment for ecosystem services

Connecting conservation rural and urban

Distribution of benefits over geographic scales

Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation

Integrated framework across disciplines and Dynamic Spatial

(1) Natural Capital (2) Supply of

Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S

S (9) Non-market demand

Culture health other species

S

Source van den Belt amp Cole DOC 2014

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES perceived

Demand for ES not perceived

Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Manawatu MIMES - Qualitative overview

Catchments Catchments

Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and

services model Conversion

Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments

Manawatu MIMES ndash Data base links


WATYIELD

The New Zealand Land Cover

Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior

Input for local investment

scenarios

FENZ

13 underlying climate

landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)

Resource Management Act

1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)

Land Environments of New Zealand

(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups

Input for land use change scenarios

The Manuwatu MIMES User Interface for Scenario

Modeling

The Introduction Page

2000

Multi-scale Spatial Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem Services

2013



2020

2030


2040


2050


End-user MIMES Manawatu workshop 16 August 2013

Landcare Research Department of Conservation Waikato Regional Council Southland

Regional Council Auckland Council Greater Wellington Regional Council Ministry of

Primary Industries Ministry for the Environment SCION Market Economics Massey

University

End-user survey results

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree

The MIMES is a useful integrated framework to show relationships that influence the supply and

demand of ecosystem services across the landscape


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree

Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree

MIMES can be further developed to inform hotspotstrade-offs for investment

decisions


Ecosystem Service of Water Regulation

httptoolsenvirolinkgovtnz

Putting the tools together for knowledge creation

Dynamic modeling

Static modeling

Original TEVstudies surveys

Data Bases egEVT Scoping Models eg

Mediated Modeling

ResearchManagementModels eg MIMES

Benefit Transfer tools egRESA SERVES TEEB

InVest Seasketch

Big Data and SpecializedModels eg GIS weather

data

Evolving tools for establishing value with people

bull Systems thinking


bull Multi-scale spatially dynamic modelling

bull Adaptive Management

Common Asset Trust New Institutions for eg Water Allocation and Restoration of Natural Capital

Efficient allocation through

water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu

$$ from market tool to Trust

$$ invested in restoring

natural capital and ecosystem services

Hard limits to set ecological scale

Watershed

Take away message session 3 bull A paradigm shift is needed to include investing in Natural

CapitalEcological Infrastructure and Ecosystem Services as part of

lsquoeconomicrsquo behavior

bull Trans-disciplinary science is needed to develop a lsquothinking spacersquo

for multi-scale spatial planning and adaptive management

bull New institutional arrangements required to facilitate such shift

Thank you

Overview




Overview
























wwwifsorg


9


Gross benefit

Consumer

surplus

Gross output

Producer

Operating surplus

surplus - to owners

- to labour








Resource Resource

inputs inputs

at cost at costN

et b

enef

it

Val

ue a

dded

(GD

P co

ntrib

utio

n)

Cost

Inte

rmed

iate

cons

umpt

ion

Source

NZIER Peter Clough

presented at NZIAI

on 29 Nov 2013





egManawatu-Wanganui

Direct

$1193

Indirect

$4820

Ecosystem Services

Estimate $6013

Regional GDP

$7405


Services Value ($)

Notes



relative sizes




Estimate $6013

=

Benefit Transfer

ES value in US94$

33 trillion

GDP in US94$

18 trillion

ES value in NZ94$


84 billion

ES in NZ2006$

6 billion

GDP in NZ2006$




GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND

MANAWATU-WANGANUI



Commercial

Use Value

In situ


Value Existence

Value

Eg Irrigation

Electricity

Direct eg Swimming

Indirect eg Angling

Commercial

Non - commercial

Eg Habitat

Eg Species

preservation

























bull Discount rates

P

R

I

C

E

QUANTITY

Supply

Demand

Do people

behave like

rational

utilitarians


What happens

when all-else-is-

NOT-equal

Source Senge 2012















Manufactured

Capital

Labor

Land


Services

GDP

Individual Utility


Property rights

Cultural

Norms

and

Policy

Investments


Education

Land improvements




Manufactured

Capital

Human

Capital

Natural

Capital

Production

Goods

and

Services

Well-being

Individual and

Community


Property rights

Cultural

Norms and

Policy

managed

adaptively

Investments

based on

complex

property

rights and

ecosystem

benefits

Social Capital

Common

Ecosystem

benefits

lsquoWastersquo

Solar

Energy

Heat





From R Putnam

Bowling Alone The


American Community

NewYork Simon and

Schuster 2000)

Social Capital

index by State in

USA



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Year


GDP GPI

$N

Z2006B

illio

n


US

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

UK

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Germany

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Austri a

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Netherland s

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Sweden

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Chile

40

90

140

190

240

1940 1960 1980 2000


and GDP (1970 = 100)












C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits



C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits









Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Overview
























wwwifsorg


9


Gross benefit

Consumer

surplus

Gross output

Producer

Operating surplus

surplus - to owners

- to labour








Resource Resource

inputs inputs

at cost at costN

et b

enef

it

Val

ue a

dded

(GD

P co

ntrib

utio

n)

Cost

Inte

rmed

iate

cons

umpt

ion

Source

NZIER Peter Clough

presented at NZIAI

on 29 Nov 2013





egManawatu-Wanganui

Direct

$1193

Indirect

$4820

Ecosystem Services

Estimate $6013

Regional GDP

$7405


Services Value ($)

Notes



relative sizes




Estimate $6013

=

Benefit Transfer

ES value in US94$

33 trillion

GDP in US94$

18 trillion

ES value in NZ94$


84 billion

ES in NZ2006$

6 billion

GDP in NZ2006$




GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND

MANAWATU-WANGANUI



Commercial

Use Value

In situ


Value Existence

Value

Eg Irrigation

Electricity

Direct eg Swimming

Indirect eg Angling

Commercial

Non - commercial

Eg Habitat

Eg Species

preservation

























bull Discount rates

P

R

I

C

E

QUANTITY

Supply

Demand

Do people

behave like

rational

utilitarians


What happens

when all-else-is-

NOT-equal

Source Senge 2012















Manufactured

Capital

Labor

Land


Services

GDP

Individual Utility


Property rights

Cultural

Norms

and

Policy

Investments


Education

Land improvements




Manufactured

Capital

Human

Capital

Natural

Capital

Production

Goods

and

Services

Well-being

Individual and

Community


Property rights

Cultural

Norms and

Policy

managed

adaptively

Investments

based on

complex

property

rights and

ecosystem

benefits

Social Capital

Common

Ecosystem

benefits

lsquoWastersquo

Solar

Energy

Heat





From R Putnam

Bowling Alone The


American Community

NewYork Simon and

Schuster 2000)

Social Capital

index by State in

USA



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Year


GDP GPI

$N

Z2006B

illio

n


US

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

UK

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Germany

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Austri a

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Netherland s

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Sweden

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Chile

40

90

140

190

240

1940 1960 1980 2000


and GDP (1970 = 100)












C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits



C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits









Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you





















wwwifsorg


9


Gross benefit

Consumer

surplus

Gross output

Producer

Operating surplus

surplus - to owners

- to labour








Resource Resource

inputs inputs

at cost at costN

et b

enef

it

Val

ue a

dded

(GD

P co

ntrib

utio

n)

Cost

Inte

rmed

iate

cons

umpt

ion

Source

NZIER Peter Clough

presented at NZIAI

on 29 Nov 2013





egManawatu-Wanganui

Direct

$1193

Indirect

$4820

Ecosystem Services

Estimate $6013

Regional GDP

$7405


Services Value ($)

Notes



relative sizes




Estimate $6013

=

Benefit Transfer

ES value in US94$

33 trillion

GDP in US94$

18 trillion

ES value in NZ94$


84 billion

ES in NZ2006$

6 billion

GDP in NZ2006$




GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND

MANAWATU-WANGANUI



Commercial

Use Value

In situ


Value Existence

Value

Eg Irrigation

Electricity

Direct eg Swimming

Indirect eg Angling

Commercial

Non - commercial

Eg Habitat

Eg Species

preservation

























bull Discount rates

P

R

I

C

E

QUANTITY

Supply

Demand

Do people

behave like

rational

utilitarians


What happens

when all-else-is-

NOT-equal

Source Senge 2012















Manufactured

Capital

Labor

Land


Services

GDP

Individual Utility


Property rights

Cultural

Norms

and

Policy

Investments


Education

Land improvements




Manufactured

Capital

Human

Capital

Natural

Capital

Production

Goods

and

Services

Well-being

Individual and

Community


Property rights

Cultural

Norms and

Policy

managed

adaptively

Investments

based on

complex

property

rights and

ecosystem

benefits

Social Capital

Common

Ecosystem

benefits

lsquoWastersquo

Solar

Energy

Heat





From R Putnam

Bowling Alone The


American Community

NewYork Simon and

Schuster 2000)

Social Capital

index by State in

USA



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Year


GDP GPI

$N

Z2006B

illio

n


US

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

UK

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Germany

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Austri a

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Netherland s

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Sweden

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Chile

40

90

140

190

240

1940 1960 1980 2000


and GDP (1970 = 100)












C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits



C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits









Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


9


Gross benefit

Consumer

surplus

Gross output

Producer

Operating surplus

surplus - to owners

- to labour








Resource Resource

inputs inputs

at cost at costN

et b

enef

it

Val

ue a

dded

(GD

P co

ntrib

utio

n)

Cost

Inte

rmed

iate

cons

umpt

ion

Source

NZIER Peter Clough

presented at NZIAI

on 29 Nov 2013





egManawatu-Wanganui

Direct

$1193

Indirect

$4820

Ecosystem Services

Estimate $6013

Regional GDP

$7405


Services Value ($)

Notes



relative sizes




Estimate $6013

=

Benefit Transfer

ES value in US94$

33 trillion

GDP in US94$

18 trillion

ES value in NZ94$


84 billion

ES in NZ2006$

6 billion

GDP in NZ2006$




GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND

MANAWATU-WANGANUI



Commercial

Use Value

In situ


Value Existence

Value

Eg Irrigation

Electricity

Direct eg Swimming

Indirect eg Angling

Commercial

Non - commercial

Eg Habitat

Eg Species

preservation

























bull Discount rates

P

R

I

C

E

QUANTITY

Supply

Demand

Do people

behave like

rational

utilitarians


What happens

when all-else-is-

NOT-equal

Source Senge 2012















Manufactured

Capital

Labor

Land


Services

GDP

Individual Utility


Property rights

Cultural

Norms

and

Policy

Investments


Education

Land improvements




Manufactured

Capital

Human

Capital

Natural

Capital

Production

Goods

and

Services

Well-being

Individual and

Community


Property rights

Cultural

Norms and

Policy

managed

adaptively

Investments

based on

complex

property

rights and

ecosystem

benefits

Social Capital

Common

Ecosystem

benefits

lsquoWastersquo

Solar

Energy

Heat





From R Putnam

Bowling Alone The


American Community

NewYork Simon and

Schuster 2000)

Social Capital

index by State in

USA



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Year


GDP GPI

$N

Z2006B

illio

n


US

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

UK

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Germany

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Austri a

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Netherland s

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Sweden

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Chile

40

90

140

190

240

1940 1960 1980 2000


and GDP (1970 = 100)












C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits



C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits









Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you





egManawatu-Wanganui

Direct

$1193

Indirect

$4820

Ecosystem Services

Estimate $6013

Regional GDP

$7405


Services Value ($)

Notes



relative sizes




Estimate $6013

=

Benefit Transfer

ES value in US94$

33 trillion

GDP in US94$

18 trillion

ES value in NZ94$


84 billion

ES in NZ2006$

6 billion

GDP in NZ2006$




GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND

MANAWATU-WANGANUI



Commercial

Use Value

In situ


Value Existence

Value

Eg Irrigation

Electricity

Direct eg Swimming

Indirect eg Angling

Commercial

Non - commercial

Eg Habitat

Eg Species

preservation

























bull Discount rates

P

R

I

C

E

QUANTITY

Supply

Demand

Do people

behave like

rational

utilitarians


What happens

when all-else-is-

NOT-equal

Source Senge 2012















Manufactured

Capital

Labor

Land


Services

GDP

Individual Utility


Property rights

Cultural

Norms

and

Policy

Investments


Education

Land improvements




Manufactured

Capital

Human

Capital

Natural

Capital

Production

Goods

and

Services

Well-being

Individual and

Community


Property rights

Cultural

Norms and

Policy

managed

adaptively

Investments

based on

complex

property

rights and

ecosystem

benefits

Social Capital

Common

Ecosystem

benefits

lsquoWastersquo

Solar

Energy

Heat





From R Putnam

Bowling Alone The


American Community

NewYork Simon and

Schuster 2000)

Social Capital

index by State in

USA



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Year


GDP GPI

$N

Z2006B

illio

n


US

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

UK

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Germany

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Austri a

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Netherland s

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Sweden

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Chile

40

90

140

190

240

1940 1960 1980 2000


and GDP (1970 = 100)












C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits



C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits









Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Benefit Transfer

ES value in US94$

33 trillion

GDP in US94$

18 trillion

ES value in NZ94$


84 billion

ES in NZ2006$

6 billion

GDP in NZ2006$




GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND

MANAWATU-WANGANUI



Commercial

Use Value

In situ


Value Existence

Value

Eg Irrigation

Electricity

Direct eg Swimming

Indirect eg Angling

Commercial

Non - commercial

Eg Habitat

Eg Species

preservation

























bull Discount rates

P

R

I

C

E

QUANTITY

Supply

Demand

Do people

behave like

rational

utilitarians


What happens

when all-else-is-

NOT-equal

Source Senge 2012















Manufactured

Capital

Labor

Land


Services

GDP

Individual Utility


Property rights

Cultural

Norms

and

Policy

Investments


Education

Land improvements




Manufactured

Capital

Human

Capital

Natural

Capital

Production

Goods

and

Services

Well-being

Individual and

Community


Property rights

Cultural

Norms and

Policy

managed

adaptively

Investments

based on

complex

property

rights and

ecosystem

benefits

Social Capital

Common

Ecosystem

benefits

lsquoWastersquo

Solar

Energy

Heat





From R Putnam

Bowling Alone The


American Community

NewYork Simon and

Schuster 2000)

Social Capital

index by State in

USA



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Year


GDP GPI

$N

Z2006B

illio

n


US

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

UK

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Germany

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Austri a

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Netherland s

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Sweden

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Chile

40

90

140

190

240

1940 1960 1980 2000


and GDP (1970 = 100)












C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits



C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits









Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you



Commercial

Use Value

In situ


Value Existence

Value

Eg Irrigation

Electricity

Direct eg Swimming

Indirect eg Angling

Commercial

Non - commercial

Eg Habitat

Eg Species

preservation

























bull Discount rates

P

R

I

C

E

QUANTITY

Supply

Demand

Do people

behave like

rational

utilitarians


What happens

when all-else-is-

NOT-equal

Source Senge 2012















Manufactured

Capital

Labor

Land


Services

GDP

Individual Utility


Property rights

Cultural

Norms

and

Policy

Investments


Education

Land improvements




Manufactured

Capital

Human

Capital

Natural

Capital

Production

Goods

and

Services

Well-being

Individual and

Community


Property rights

Cultural

Norms and

Policy

managed

adaptively

Investments

based on

complex

property

rights and

ecosystem

benefits

Social Capital

Common

Ecosystem

benefits

lsquoWastersquo

Solar

Energy

Heat





From R Putnam

Bowling Alone The


American Community

NewYork Simon and

Schuster 2000)

Social Capital

index by State in

USA



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Year


GDP GPI

$N

Z2006B

illio

n


US

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

UK

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Germany

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Austri a

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Netherland s

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Sweden

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Chile

40

90

140

190

240

1940 1960 1980 2000


and GDP (1970 = 100)












C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits



C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits









Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

























bull Discount rates

P

R

I

C

E

QUANTITY

Supply

Demand

Do people

behave like

rational

utilitarians


What happens

when all-else-is-

NOT-equal

Source Senge 2012















Manufactured

Capital

Labor

Land


Services

GDP

Individual Utility


Property rights

Cultural

Norms

and

Policy

Investments


Education

Land improvements




Manufactured

Capital

Human

Capital

Natural

Capital

Production

Goods

and

Services

Well-being

Individual and

Community


Property rights

Cultural

Norms and

Policy

managed

adaptively

Investments

based on

complex

property

rights and

ecosystem

benefits

Social Capital

Common

Ecosystem

benefits

lsquoWastersquo

Solar

Energy

Heat





From R Putnam

Bowling Alone The


American Community

NewYork Simon and

Schuster 2000)

Social Capital

index by State in

USA



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Year


GDP GPI

$N

Z2006B

illio

n


US

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

UK

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Germany

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Austri a

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Netherland s

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Sweden

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Chile

40

90

140

190

240

1940 1960 1980 2000


and GDP (1970 = 100)












C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits



C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits









Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Do people

behave like

rational

utilitarians


What happens

when all-else-is-

NOT-equal

Source Senge 2012















Manufactured

Capital

Labor

Land


Services

GDP

Individual Utility


Property rights

Cultural

Norms

and

Policy

Investments


Education

Land improvements




Manufactured

Capital

Human

Capital

Natural

Capital

Production

Goods

and

Services

Well-being

Individual and

Community


Property rights

Cultural

Norms and

Policy

managed

adaptively

Investments

based on

complex

property

rights and

ecosystem

benefits

Social Capital

Common

Ecosystem

benefits

lsquoWastersquo

Solar

Energy

Heat





From R Putnam

Bowling Alone The


American Community

NewYork Simon and

Schuster 2000)

Social Capital

index by State in

USA



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Year


GDP GPI

$N

Z2006B

illio

n


US

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

UK

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Germany

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Austri a

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Netherland s

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Sweden

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Chile

40

90

140

190

240

1940 1960 1980 2000


and GDP (1970 = 100)












C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits



C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits









Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Source Senge 2012















Manufactured

Capital

Labor

Land


Services

GDP

Individual Utility


Property rights

Cultural

Norms

and

Policy

Investments


Education

Land improvements




Manufactured

Capital

Human

Capital

Natural

Capital

Production

Goods

and

Services

Well-being

Individual and

Community


Property rights

Cultural

Norms and

Policy

managed

adaptively

Investments

based on

complex

property

rights and

ecosystem

benefits

Social Capital

Common

Ecosystem

benefits

lsquoWastersquo

Solar

Energy

Heat





From R Putnam

Bowling Alone The


American Community

NewYork Simon and

Schuster 2000)

Social Capital

index by State in

USA



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Year


GDP GPI

$N

Z2006B

illio

n


US

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

UK

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Germany

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Austri a

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Netherland s

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Sweden

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Chile

40

90

140

190

240

1940 1960 1980 2000


and GDP (1970 = 100)












C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits



C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits









Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you















Manufactured

Capital

Labor

Land


Services

GDP

Individual Utility


Property rights

Cultural

Norms

and

Policy

Investments


Education

Land improvements




Manufactured

Capital

Human

Capital

Natural

Capital

Production

Goods

and

Services

Well-being

Individual and

Community


Property rights

Cultural

Norms and

Policy

managed

adaptively

Investments

based on

complex

property

rights and

ecosystem

benefits

Social Capital

Common

Ecosystem

benefits

lsquoWastersquo

Solar

Energy

Heat





From R Putnam

Bowling Alone The


American Community

NewYork Simon and

Schuster 2000)

Social Capital

index by State in

USA



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Year


GDP GPI

$N

Z2006B

illio

n


US

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

UK

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Germany

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Austri a

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Netherland s

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Sweden

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Chile

40

90

140

190

240

1940 1960 1980 2000


and GDP (1970 = 100)












C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits



C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits









Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you




Manufactured

Capital

Human

Capital

Natural

Capital

Production

Goods

and

Services

Well-being

Individual and

Community


Property rights

Cultural

Norms and

Policy

managed

adaptively

Investments

based on

complex

property

rights and

ecosystem

benefits

Social Capital

Common

Ecosystem

benefits

lsquoWastersquo

Solar

Energy

Heat





From R Putnam

Bowling Alone The


American Community

NewYork Simon and

Schuster 2000)

Social Capital

index by State in

USA



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Year


GDP GPI

$N

Z2006B

illio

n


US

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

UK

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Germany

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Austri a

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Netherland s

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Sweden

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Chile

40

90

140

190

240

1940 1960 1980 2000


and GDP (1970 = 100)












C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits



C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits









Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you





From R Putnam

Bowling Alone The


American Community

NewYork Simon and

Schuster 2000)

Social Capital

index by State in

USA



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Year


GDP GPI

$N

Z2006B

illio

n


US

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

UK

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Germany

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Austri a

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Netherland s

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Sweden

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Chile

40

90

140

190

240

1940 1960 1980 2000


and GDP (1970 = 100)












C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits



C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits









Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Year


GDP GPI

$N

Z2006B

illio

n


US

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

UK

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Germany

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Austri a

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Netherland s

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Sweden

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Chile

40

90

140

190

240

1940 1960 1980 2000


and GDP (1970 = 100)












C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits



C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits









Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

US

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

UK

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Germany

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Austri a

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Netherland s

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Sweden

40

90

140

1940 1960 1980 2000

Chile

40

90

140

190

240

1940 1960 1980 2000


and GDP (1970 = 100)












C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits



C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits









Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you












C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits



C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits









Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

C in $

A in $


E in $



Public and

Common Benefits









Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you





Simple

Complicated


Neo-classical

Economics and






A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


A Einstein


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


Not a linear

process

Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you








wwwifsorgnz





Framework Projects


Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Overview





Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


Collaboration

participation or

litigation


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you






















Back Casting




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you




Yogi Berra








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you








creative thinking


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty

Resources Depleted



Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers



Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you




Fruits for a Few

Living on No 8 Wire

New Frontiers

Resources Plenty


Resources Depleted






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you






guiding principle





(mean rank 23)

Wor

ld V

iew

amp

Pol

icy









(mean rank 08)


(mean rank -77)


(mean rank 51)



R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


R

a

t

i

n

g


23 23

08

-77

55

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Expensive energy

Cheap energy

Market focus GDP





Business as usual



1

2

3

4




Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


Catchment

And

Reef

Ecosystem

Services




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you




Economic Growth



Treading Water

Free Riders

Best of Both Worlds



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you



Free Riders

Treading Water

Best of Both

Worlds

Current (2009)







Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you






Mediated Discussion



Status Quo

Expert Modeling

Mediated Modeling






stakeholder support





improvement




solve the problems


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


Participation




Unengaged Public


amp engaged public




Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Late

Early

Low High


within a frame




Expert model


stakeholders




process Modeller

maintains model





stakeholders


follow-up actions










Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you









Goals

Indicators


Vision



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you



GDP

Ecosystem Benefits

1990 2002 2015 2027 2040


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


Quality

Scale 1 -10

2010 2030

31

Where

the river

is now


in 2030




nothing happens



bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


bull Envisioning



bull Open Space

bull World cafe

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Source MfE 2013


Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Source Senge 1995






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you






wwwifsorgnz






Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Overview








Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you





Overview


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


Collaboration

Regulation

Legislation

VISION

ASSESS

PLAN IMPLEMENT

MONITOR





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you





Ecosystem Benefits



Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Linear Thinking

Development


Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Systems thinking



Tax

+

+


+

+

R

FEEDBACK LOOP




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you




Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

DELAYS


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


structures



Tax

+

+


+

+


protection

R

B

-

+

+




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you




BuiltInfrastructure

Tax

S

S


S


S

S

O

SLOW

FAST







Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you



Depreciation of




Depreciation of

river engineering



Investment in Built

infrastructure











River overflow

Forest dampening


Wetlands in ha






~



Percentage funding


Percentage funding



Erosion control






River inflow

River outflow

Wetland storage

Flood damage in $M

Desired Wetlands



Wetland Target

+

+

+



Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


Natural Capital

High

Natural Capital

Low


Built Capital

Scenario 3


Natural Capital





Scenario 1



Scenario 2







2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M



2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020

FLOOD DAMAGE IN $M


Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Flood damage in $M

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020





2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020






Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you



Modelled

2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you




2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


2012 2030 2040 2050 2062 2020




Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Ecosystem services






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you






Natural Capital

Ecosystem Services


Dynamic Non-Spatial


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


Workshop schedule

Date Event






Dissemination


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


bull Western BoP





bull Zespri












bull Trust Power

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Survey Results


10

Now 2010 2030

Health of

Harbour = 5

(range= 17)





done (range=16)

1

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Survey Results



Economic outcome


Cultural values


Purple Econ (2)

Pink Equal (2)

Blue Social (1)


Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Causal map

NATURAL

CAPITAL

PRODUCTION

LANDECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

MARKET

VALUE IN $S

POPULATION

ACTIONS

O

O

S

S

S

S

IN KIND AND

IN $

S

S


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


GDP and ES

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Simulation

bull Calibration

bull Assumptions

bull Scenarios

bull Sensitivities





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you





bull Horticulture

bull Wetlands

bull Grassland

bull Scrubs

bull Seagrass

bull Mangroves

bull Tourism

bull GDP





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you





Scenario 1




Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Sensitivities














usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you










usefully




bull






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you






Policy Management

Natural Capital

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Ecosystem Services

(E)Valuation



Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


Ecosystem Services

(8) Actions

O

(5) Pressures

S

S

(6) Demand for

Ecosystem Services

(7) ES Values gap

(4) Economic

Services

S S

(3)Economic

Sectors S

S



S


Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Time

Supply of ES



Shortage of ES

Abundance of ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

Time

Supply of ES

Demand for ES



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you



Hydrological

model

Land cover

Demographics

coefficients

Land use

Demographics

Built capital

Water

routing

Land environments

Land cover

Land use

N loading

Water

Land use

Demographics

population effect

Rain

Ecosystem

goods and


Ecosystem

Services

Water quality

standards

Catchments



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you



WATYIELD


Database

Demographics

By ANZSIC 2006

ndash industry

classification

Land use change as

emergent behavior


scenarios

FENZ


landform and soil

variables

8 Land covers

7 land uses

7x7 Land use change

Demographics

1 Population effect

2 Business as

Usual

3 Restoration

clifloni

wacon

z

Dynamics in

goods and

service

trade-offs

Emergent

dynamics in

Ecosystem

Services

(see output

slide 17)


1991

Freshwater

Ecosystems

of New

Zealand

(FENZ GIS)


(LENZ)

Database

8 user

groups



Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


Modeling


2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

2000


2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

2013



2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


2020

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

2030


2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

2040


2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you

2050






University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you





University


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Stronglydisagree



decisions





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you





Dynamic modeling

Static modeling



Mediated Modeling



InVest Seasketch


data








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you








water trading

Fair distribution

through

Common Asset

(watershed)

Trust

Run by Multiple

Stakeholders and

iwihapu





Watershed







Thank you







Thank you

how (ecological economics) tools can benefit river … of...full world" model of the economy...

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