how economic integration can promote inclusive growth lao pdr's experience 12 november 2014...
TRANSCRIPT
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How Economic Integration Can Promote Inclusive Growth
Lao PDR's Experience
12 November 2014
Leeber Leebouapao(Ph.D)Director Genral
National Economic Research Institute(NERI)Ministry of Planning and Investment
Lao PDRE-mail: [email protected]
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Points of Discussion
Lao PDR’s National Economic Development Strategy
and Economic Integration Policy Framework
Recent Macroeconomic Performance
Poverty Incidences and Policy
Opportunities and Challenges of Lao PDR’s Economic Integration ( AEC by and after 2015 )
Policy Recommendation
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Lao National Socio-Economic Development Policy/Strategy
and Economic Integration Policy Framework
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Process of Economic Reforms
1975-1986: Socialist or Centrally Planned Economy
1986: NEMShifting from centrally planned
economy to a market oriented economy( Price liberalization, fiscal reform, SOE
reform, banking reform, government employee reform, more open economy )
1997: Member of ASEAN 2008: AFTA 2012: Member of WTO 2015: Member of AC(APSC, AEC, ASCC)
Economic Integration Policy Framework
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Key Targets of NSEDP/S: Vision 2020
Target: To graduate from the status of LDC
by 2020 VII Five Year NSEDP(2011-2015)
To achieve MDG’s To join AEC by 2015 GDP growth: more than 8% per year
The National Social-Economic Development Policy/Strategy
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Industrialization Strategy: Electricity Industry Agro-processing Industry Mining Industry Tourism Industry Construction Material Production
Industry
The National Social-Economic Development
Policy/Strategy(Cont.)
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Land-Linked StrategyConnectivity
The National Social-Economic Development
Policy/Strategy(Cont.)
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The Geographic Focus
East-WestEast-West Corridor Corridor
Sa Keo
Beantey Meanchey
Tay Ninh
Svay Rieng
Quang TriMukdahan
Savannakhet
Nor
th-S
outh
Cor
rido
r A
-
Nor
th-S
outh
Cor
rido
r A
-N
orth
-Sou
th C
orri
dor
-BN
orth
-Sou
th C
orri
dor
-B
North-South
North-South Corridor-C
Corridor-C
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Recent Macro Economic Performance
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GDP growth (%)
Source: Lao Bureau Statistics
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GDP Growth by Sectors (%)
Source: Lao Bureau Statistics
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Contributions and GDP growth (%)
Source: Lao Bureau Statistics
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GDP per capita in US$
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Inflation (%)
Source: Lao Bureau Statistics
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The Current Status of the Lao Foreign Trade
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Main Exporting MarketsFY 1999-
2004FY 2004-
2009FY 2009-
2012
1 Thailand 46% 38% 56%
2 Australia 6% 10% 18%
3 Viet Nam 7% 12% 8%
4 China 3% 5% 4%
5 United Kingdom 1% 7% 1%
6 Japan 1% 1% 2%
7 Germany 3% 4% 2%
8 Switzerland 3% 5% 2%
9 Netherland 1% 1% 1%
10 Italy 2% 1% 1%
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Top 9 Export Items from Laos
Unit: million USD (share to total)
No. Export Items FY1999-2004 FY2004-2009 FY2009-2012 1
Minerals 6177. (16%)
49557. (50%)
10485, . 2(59%)
2
Electricity 9493 (25%)
12793. (13%)
28900.(16%)
3
Garment 9614. (26%)
15253. (16%)
16730.(9%)
4
Agriculture and live animals
8249.( 22%)
8851. (9%)
11924.(7%)
5
Other Industrial goods 1077. (3%)
6957. (7%)
11362.(6%)
6
Wood & wood products 7313.(19%)
6932. (7%)
3711.(2%)
7
Diamond 0 1883. (2%)
1274.(1%)
8
Forestry Products 867. (2%)
509. (1%)
101.(0%)
9
Handicraft 523. (1%)
103. (0%)
040.(0%)
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Main Import MarketsFY 1999-
2004FY 2004-
2009FY 2009-
2012
1 Thailand 26% 64% 52%
2 China 5% 9% 12%
3 Viet Nam 4% 12% 8%
4 France 0% 0% 4%
5 Japan 0% 2% 3%
6 South Korea 0% 0% 1%
7 Belgium 0% 2% 2%
8 Germany 1% 0% 0%
9 Denmark 0% 1% 0%
10 Taiwan 0% 1% 0%
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Top 10 Import Items to Laos
Unit: million USD (share to total)
No. Import Items FY1999-2004 FY2004-2009 FY2009-2012
1Capital goods (ODA, Loan projects, FDI)
179 (33%) 319 (32%) 700 (42%)
2 Fuel and Gas 93 (17%) 206 (21%) 333 (20%)
3 Vehicles and space parts 25 (5%) 75 (8%) 107 (6%)
4 Food stuff 19 (3%) 24 (2%) 92 (5%)
5 Luxury goods 3 (1%) 9 (1%) 71 (4%)
6 Clothing and daily use commodities 14 (3%) 22 (2%) 54 (3%)
7 Agriculture Inputs 16 (3%) 17 (2%) 48 (3%)
8 Electricity 7 (1%) 21 (2%) 47 (3%)
9 Eletricit Appliances 4 (1%) 10 (1%) 38 (2%)
10 Construction materials 27 (5%) 27 (3%) 32 (2%)
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Top 10 Import Items to Laos( FY 2009-2010)
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Top 9 Export from Laos (FY 2009-2010)
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Foreign Direct Investment (Mill USD)
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FDI by Sector (%)
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FDI by Country (%)
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FDI by Sectors (Million US Dollars)
Source: Ministry of Planning and investment
Sector 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Electricity Generation 3601,29
5 86 61,06
51,77
7 361 640 218 457 251,23
21,08
6
Mining 9 2 24 596 94 12 181 241,05
5 2691,75
7 4181,00
9Hotel & Restaurant 1 10 49 12 13 32 58 29 44 126 24 48 110Construction 1 14 3 31 2 131 0 67 27 81 257 0 100Agriculture 19 14 19 51 17 74 115 102 290 551 609 126 70Banking 5 0 0 10 5 0 0 32 84 12 106 0 70Industry & Handicraft 5 60 81 35 15 459 184 78 290 325 361 1 5Services 10 17 60 17 21 123 134 157 199 551 234 16 0Wood Industry 3 5 6 9 6 0 25 43 77 24 4 15 0Telecom 0 13 0 27 0 1 57 21 14 1 45 1 0Trading 3 8 140 19 8 86 14 13 17 75 32 0 0Public Health 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 50 0 0Garment 4 4 3 3 0 4 6 5 1 1 8 0 0Consultancy 1 1 1 2 0 2 2 4 7 14 7 0 0Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 0 0
Total 4211,44
2 471 8191,24
52,70
01,13
71,21
62,32
22,49
93,52
01,85
72,45
0
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FDI by Countries (Million US Dollars)
Country 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Vietnam 3 7 9 63 43 261 156 149 1,421 658 1,653 274 158
China 13 63 120 28 58 423 496 107 933 474 546 722 1,033
Thailand 1 6 96 57 451 655 93 375 909 44 155 171 260
Malaysia 2 5 71 3 3 3 53 0 11 5 2 23 98
Cambodia 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 83
Japan 1 0 3 5 4 402 6 1 4 12 14 15 60
Taiwan 0 1 0 4 1 7 1 4 1 1 0 0 18
South Korea 10 13 14 14 10 164 82 60 75 70 27 202 5
England 0 0 0 0 1 5 11 0 16 0 28 0 4
Russia 0 1 3 1 0 1 11 33 2 4 2 3 1
Others 18 37 110 334 395 416 63 227 69 31 130 38 395
Total 50 133 426 509 966 2337 972 956 3449 1299 2557 1448 2115
Source: Ministry of Planning and investment
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Year 1992/93 1997/98 2002/03 2007/08 2012/13
Total population (Person )4,626,00
04,905,69
05,435,41
65,927,20
36,524,92
5
Number of poor people below poverty line(Person )
2,127,960
1,918,125
1,820,864
1,635,908
1,513,783
Percentage of poor people below poverty line (%) 46
39.1
33.5
27.6
23.2
Poverty Incidences and Poverty Reduction
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Key Poverty Reduction Policy
Rural Development Policy: Irrigation development
Road infrastructure development
Primary school buildings
Primary health care services
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Opportunities and Challenges
For Economic Integration ( AEC )
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OPPORTUNITIES
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34
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The Geographic Focus
East-WestEast-West Corridor Corridor
Sa Keo
Beantey Meanchey
Tay Ninh
Svay Rieng
Quang TriMukdahan
Savannakhet
Nor
th-S
outh
Cor
rido
r A
-
Nor
th-S
outh
Cor
rido
r A
-N
orth
-Sou
th C
orri
dor
-BN
orth
-Sou
th C
orri
dor
-B
North-South
North-South Corridor-C
Corridor-C
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Better Market Access for Lao Export to
ASEAN Market
More tourist from ASEAN countries
Cheaper Import from ASEAN Market
More FDI to Lao PDR
Freer Skilled Labor Movement
Opportunities (Cont. )
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CHALLENGES
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Key Challenges in Joining AEC
Increased competition for domestic investors due to more cheaper imports
Increased competition for domestic investors due to more competitive foreign investors
Challenges of labor movements ( Social challenges )
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Policy Recommendation
Make use of the opportunities and maximize the benefit from joining AEC Mitigate the negative impact and deal
with the challenges
Strengthen competitiveness
Inclusive growth and sustainability
Achieve MDG’s, LDC-Graduation, Post- MDG’s and SDG’s
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Thank You for
Your Attention
Q & A