how i stopped worrying about the future, and got busy inventing it
Post on 18-Sep-2014
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Slides and notes from a talk I gave at Bendwebcam 2012.TRANSCRIPT
HOW I STOPPED WORRYING ABOUT
Deutsch LA
THE FUTUREAND INSTEAD GOT BUSYINVENTING IT @
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AHOY!
Since so much of my talk was, well, me talking, I’ve included sticky notes like this throughout my presentation to add the details the deck is missing.
Thanks for coming and thanks for reading.
Find me online at:
WHATCONSUMESME.COM
TWITTER.COM/BUD_CADDELL
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WHAT I KNOW ABOUT YOUR INTEREST IN LEARNING ...
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WHAT TRENDS ARE SHAPING THE CREATIVE INDUSTRY?
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3.75
7.5
11.25
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Not at all Interested Neutral Somewhat Interested Very Interested
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HOW DO I GET TO BETTER CREATIVE IDEAS?
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HOW DO I TEST MY IDEAS BEFORE LAUNCHING THEM?
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WHAT’S THE FUTURE HOLD FOR THE AGENCY MODEL?
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HOW HAVE MARKETING CHANNELS EXPLODED?
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HOW DO YOU MAP A BUSINESS MODEL?
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HOW DO YOU BUILD YOUR PERSONAL BRAND ONLINE?
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HOW CAN DIGITAL SOLVE A BUSINESS PROBLEM?
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WHAT’S A MODERN CREATIVE PROCESS LOOK LIKE?
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WHY ARE LOLCATS SO POPULAR?
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WHY DID THE ECONOMY COLLAPSE?
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FIRST EXERCISE!
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• FIND SOMEONE YOU DON’T KNOW.• TELL THEM ABOUT YOUR
FAVORITE TV SHOW.• LISTEN TO THEIRS.
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• FIND SOMEONE YOU DON’T KNOW.• TALK ABOUT THE COLOR OF THE SKY.• NO, REALLY.
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ASYMMETRYConversations are an exchange of ideas. That exchange works better when the information being passed along is asymmetrical - where I know one piece of the puzzle and you know another. New ideas inherently make you more interesting.
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Try watching this without having the urge to tell everyone you know.
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We engineered this video for asymmetry. We removed enough details in the costumes so that there would people who knew which dogs were characters and people who didn’t know. Asymmetry also equals repeat views.
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NEW IDEAS (realized) MAKE YOU MORE
INTERESTING.
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Hyundai Assurance, what Gareth Kay calls “an idea that’s advertised, not an advertising idea.”
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Nike Fuelband
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Checkout at the grocery store with Hellman’s in your cart and you’ll get a recipe printed right on your receipt.
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If you can’t bring people to your store, bring your store to people. Tesco.
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Classic asymmetry. There’s the fashion followers and the fashion makers.
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YOU.The only thing I know about building a personal brand is to continually try out weird, new ideas.
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Like pretending to be a madeup character of a fictional TV show (Mad Men) using Twitter.
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Or painting a popular internet meme and selling it on eBay for $1,000.
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OR build a real-life LIKE sign that lights up for every Facebook Like we get on our website.
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Or take a crazy notion of re-inventing our industry and turn it into a brand new service offering
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TODAY & TOMORROW
On that note, let’s talk about where our jobs are heading.
YEARS TO REACH 50% HOUSEHOLD ADOPTION, SOURCE: ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY
THE PACE OF CHANGE IS MIND BOGGLING
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YR 10 YR 20 YR 30 YR 40 YR 50 YR 60 YR 70
TELEPHONEINTERNET COLOR TVCOMPUTERMOBILE
WHEN WE HAD TIME TO DRINK SCOTCH AT 11 AM
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THE TRADITIONAL AD MODEL
PRINT TV RADIO
WHEN WE WERE THE KINGS OF FLASHTURBATION
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THE MICROSITE MODEL, CIRCA 2005-8
MICRO-SITE
TV
RADIO
NON-TRAD
BANNERS
SEARCH
WHEN WE ALL BECAME SOCIAL MEDIA DOUCHEBAGS
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THE 2011 MARKETING ECOSYSTEM
MOBILE
CORPORATEDOT-COM
RADIO
NON-TRAD
TV
RETAIL
EVENTS
DIGITAL OOH
SOCIAL
SEARCH
BANNERS
MICRO-SITE
we help our clients rethink the marketing ecosystem. starting with a realization that these are more than boxes that need filling.
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But let’s not forget what the world looks like to a consumer these days. An abundance of choice means a scarcity of attention. Also, what Rob Walker calls the “pretty good problem” - it’s getting harder and harder for products to breakthrough.
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8080% of categories are seen as homogenous by consumers.
%
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10percent of ads are seen as different
%
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44% seen as successful in direct marketing
%
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.05.05% click through seen as success in banner ads
let’s not beat this up too much.
%
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75meanwhile ... the average lifespan of a fortune 500 company in 1937
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5the average lifespan of a fortune 500 company today
something has to be done about this.
/
when a crisis is this drastic, only one thing can be done!
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TO THE POWERPOINT!
EVERYTHING WE DO MUST IGNITE OR EMPOWER NETWORKS OF CONSUMERS, CONNECTED BY SHARED INTERESTS
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THE 2012 MEANING ECOSYSTEM
ME
SOCIAL
GRAPH
SHARED
PROFITS
PURPOSE
PRODUCTS & SERVICES
PAID MEDIA
EARNED MEDIA
OWNED MEDIAINTERESTS
BEHAVIOR
EVERYTHING WE DO MUST IGNITE OR EMPOWER NETWORKS OF CONSUMERS, CONNECTED BY SHARED INTERESTS
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THE 2012 MEANING ECOSYSTEM
ME
SOCIAL
GRAPH
SHARED
PROFITS
PURPOSE
PRODUCTS & SERVICES
PAID MEDIA
EARNED MEDIA
OWNED MEDIAINTERESTS
BEHAVIOR
THIS PROBABLY LOOKS INSANELY COMPLEX. BECAUSE IT IS. BUT LET’S TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN ..
EVERYTHING WE DO MUST IGNITE OR EMPOWER NETWORKS OF CONSUMERS, CONNECTED BY SHARED INTERESTS
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THE 2012 MEANING ECOSYSTEM
ME
SOCIAL
GRAPH
SHARED
PROFITS
PURPOSE
PRODUCTS & SERVICES
PAID MEDIA
EARNED MEDIA
OWNED MEDIAINTERESTS
BEHAVIOR
FIRST.
Instead of diving head first into how you’ll fill media buckets, we should concentrate on telling a coherent brand story across everything we do, starting with our purpose (beyond profits), and how our products and our revenue support that purpose. Then, we should use media to amplify that message.
EVERYTHING WE DO MUST IGNITE OR EMPOWER NETWORKS OF CONSUMERS, CONNECTED BY SHARED INTERESTS
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THE 2012 MEANING ECOSYSTEM
ME
SOCIAL
GRAPH
SHARED
PROFITS
PURPOSE
PRODUCTS & SERVICES
PAID MEDIA
EARNED MEDIA
OWNED MEDIAINTERESTS
BEHAVIOR
And as we plan to reach consumers, we need to be paying more attention than ever to the shared interests which bind our consumers to their friends. That’s how we’ll engineer our message to have the best chance at being spread. We also have to start observing people’s behaviors more closely, and not in aggregate, we have to get up close and truly personal.
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Doing all of these things better will increase our odds for success. But....
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9090% of strategic plans are never realized.
i like to think that means 90% of time spent in powerpoint is meaningless.
%
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7070% of change plans fail, our organizations are often too silo’d and fragmented to turn on a dime.
%
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WELCOME TO THE ERA OF PROBLEMS YOU CAN’T STRATEGIZE YOUR WAY OUT OF.
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don’t get me wrong, there is still a place for strategy in this world. a huge place. especially when we have the time and attention to methodically plan.
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but even the most simple plans can and often go awry when they meet the real world. and it reminds me of something like that.
this is also the example i like to use when clients ask for a viral video. Search youtube
for “plinko price is right”
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in reaction to that, you see this meme exploding in culture right now.
it sounds AWESOME DOESN’T IT?!
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this one’s also very popular. especially in our biz.
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MIDDLE EXERCISE!WE’LL DO PARTS OF THIS
EXERCISE TOGETHER. DON’T WORRY, THIS ONE DOESN’T REQUIRE MUCH EMPATHY.
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WHAT CAN EVENT ORGANIZERS DO TO ENSURE AN EVENT HAS AN IMPACT LONG AFTER THE DAY IS OVER?
YOUR BRIEF:
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Serves User Needs
Nudges the Brand
IgnitesCulture
This is our invention filter, a process we use to generate better ideas.
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WHAT CAN EVENT ORGANIZERS DO TO ENSURE THEIR EVENT HAS A LONG-TERM IMPACT?
Serves User Needs
What are attendees trying to accomplish by coming?
What are the barriers?
What’s broken?
What technologies can help?
What solutions are being tried in other industries or countries to solve similar problems?
STEP ONE, ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS .. .
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WHAT CAN EVENT ORGANIZERS DO TO ENSURE THEIR EVENT HAS A LONG-TERM IMPACT?
Serves User Needs Nudges the Brand
What are attendees trying to accomplish by coming?
What are the barriers?
What’s broken?
What technologies can help?
What solutions are being tried in other industries or countries to solve similar problems?
How does the business work?
What forces keep them from growing and what forces keep them from shrinking? What factors are most important to attendees when choosing an event?
Where is the industry heading, who is doing the pushing, and is the brand leading or following?
STEP ONE, ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS .. .
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WHAT CAN EVENT ORGANIZERS DO TO ENSURE THEIR EVENT HAS A LONG-TERM IMPACT?
Serves User Needs Nudges the Brand Ignites Culture
What are attendees trying to accomplish by coming?
What are the barriers?
What’s broken?
What technologies can help?
What solutions are being tried in other industries or countries to solve similar problems?
How does the business work?
What forces keep them from growing and what forces keep them from shrinking? What factors are most important to attendees when choosing an event?
Where is the industry heading, who is doing the pushing, and is the brand leading or following?
What types of content do attendees of these events share with each other?
What are common conventions being used by competitors in their marketing?
What are the commonly held beliefs and behaviors of your customers?
Are they in contradiction?
STEP ONE, ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS .. .
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IDEATE!
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SHARE!
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did that feel good?!
now, i’m gonna burst your bubble.
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3,000According to one source, it can take upwards of 3000 raw ideas to get to 1 commercially successful product.
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.033%
that is, in fact, worse success rates than a banner ad.
BUT. DOING STUFF IS INESCAPABLE.
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IN THE NETWORK ERA, THE LAST SEMBLANCE OF CONTROL RESTS IN THE HANDS OF THE PLATFORM BUILDERS.
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PROGRAM OR BE PROGRAMMED.”“
– DOUGLAS RUSHKOFF
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THE BEST WAY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE IS TO INVENT IT.”
“
– ALAN KAY
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DISRUPT YOURSELF BEFORE SOMEONE DOES IT FOR YOU.”
“
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.033%
but still. there’s this.
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START WITH BETTER IDEAS.
START WITH MORE IDEAS.
LEARN (FAIL) FASTER.
LEARN (FAIL) SAFER.
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Napkin Labs
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Our own internal tool (alpha) to get more creativity out of the organization.
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START WITH BETTER IDEAS.
START WITH MORE IDEAS.
LEARN (FAIL) FASTER.
LEARN (FAIL) SAFER.
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Serves User Needs
Nudges the Brand
IgnitesCulture
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look for user hacks, fix what’s broken.
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A question every single organization should be asking right now, “How can we bring our customers together to help one another?”
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Fourth Amendment Wear shows us how to ride a moment in culture.
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START WITH BETTER IDEAS.
START WITH MORE IDEAS.
LEARN (FAIL) FASTER.
LEARN (FAIL) SAFER.
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“Smoke Testing”
the title and cover of this book were developed through using adwords.
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Dropbox was a demo video before it was a full service. Find “earlyvangelists” and give them something to spread.
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we pitched this with a vocal prototype
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When we re-built our own site, the team created a bunch of functional prototypes within a few days.
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START WITH BETTER IDEAS.
START WITH MORE IDEAS.
LEARN (FAIL) FASTER.
LEARN (FAIL) SAFER.
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failure is inevitable.
we just have to make sure we can get up after we’ve fallen down.
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ONE BIG BETA NETWORK OF SMALL BETS VS
For ad folk, we have to stop chasing the white rabbit of the big idea into the rabbit hole of the big execution. We should be cleverly slicing budgets into many opportunities for success.
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chris rock doesn’t test jokes during his HBO special. He spends 6 months popping into tiny clubs with a notebook and pen, bombing continuously.
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still the gold standard. maybe doing all of these steps well.
we suck at this one. maybe because it requires brands to either build or co-opt safe spaces.
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LAST EXERCISE!
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LET’S HACK A BUSINESS MODEL!(THE CAR INSURANCE MODEL)
THE CAR INSURANCE BUSINESS MODEL
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PAYOUTS
PREMIUMS
CUSTOMERS
RISKS
LET’S HACK A BUSINESS MODEL!
This is called a causal loop diagram. There is a lot of content online about how to get good at mapping systems. These here are called ‘stocks,’ they’re the pools of stuff that insurance companies accrue.
THE CAR INSURANCE BUSINESS MODEL
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SPAYOUTS
PREMIUMS
CUSTOMERS
RISKS
S
O
O
LET’S HACK A BUSINESS MODEL!
We map these stocks with the flows which connect them. ‘S’ means same, as in they move in the same direction, ‘O’ means opposite. So, for example, if an insurance company has to payout more money, it’s likely that they will also have to raise their premiums, which will then in turn cause them to lose customers to their competitors.
THE CAR INSURANCE BUSINESS MODEL
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SPAYOUTS
PREMIUMS
CUSTOMERS
RISKS
S
O
O
LET’S HACK A BUSINESS MODEL!
Shitty insurance companies focus on lowering payouts through less than honest tactics.
THE CAR INSURANCE BUSINESS MODEL
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SPAYOUTS
PREMIUMS
CUSTOMERS
RISKS
S
O
O
LET’S HACK A BUSINESS MODEL!
Instead, let’s focus on these two stocks.
THE CAR INSURANCE BUSINESS MODEL
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SPAYOUTS
PREMIUMS
CUSTOMERS
RISKS
S
O
O
LET’S HACK A BUSINESS MODEL!
LOWER THE RISKS OF CURRENT CUSTOMERS
ATTRACT SAFER DRIVERS
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Serves User Needs
Nudges the Brand
IgnitesCulture
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ATTRACT LESS RISKY CUSTOMERS AND HELP EVERYONE REDUCE THEIR RISKS WHILE DRIVING
Serves User Needs Nudges the Brand Ignites Culture
What are drivers trying to accomplish while driving?
What are the barriers?
What’s broken?
What technologies can help?
What solutions are being tried in other industries or countries to solve similar problems?
How does the business work?
What forces keep them from growing and what forces keep them from shrinking? What factors are most important to drivers when choosing an insurance?
Where is the industry heading, who is doing the pushing, and is the brand leading or following?
What kind of content are people already sharing around insurance?
What are common conventions being used by competitors in their marketing?
What are the commonly held beliefs and behaviors of your customers?
Are they in contradiction?
STEP ONE, ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS .. .
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IDEATE!
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SHARE!
WHAT WE’RE FOCUSING ON...
WHAT’S ACTUALLY OUT THERE...
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@BUD_CADDELL
WHATCONSUMESME.COM
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