how improvements along the border, in our immigration ... · since 2002, enforcement budget has...
TRANSCRIPT
How Improvements Along the Border, In
Our Immigration System and In Mexico Are
Impacting the National Immigration Debate
By Simon Rosenberg, Kristian Ramos and Emma Buckhout
NPI’s 21st Century Border Initiative
Updated August 26, 2013
The Border Is Safer
Since 2002, Enforcement Budget Has Tripled
$12.5
$18
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
Immigration Enforcement Funding
(In Billions)
$6.2
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
2002 2006 2012
MPI - Immigration Enforcement in the United States a Formidable Machinery
Number of “Boots on The Ground” Has
Doubled
17,499
21,300
15,000
20,000
25,000
Border Patrol Agents
10,650
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
2004 2008 2012
MPI - Immigration Enforcement in the United States a Formidable Machinery
And It Has Worked - Crime on U.S. Side
of the Border Has Plummeted
19,326
14,57915,000
20,000
25,000
Incidents of Violent Crime Along Border *
FBI Unified Crime Reports
0
5,000
10,000
2004 2011
* Analysis comes from the 11 largest cities along the our southern border: Brownsville, TX,
Calexico, CA, Chula Vista, CA, El Paso, TX, Eagle Pass, TX, Las Cruces, NM, Laredo, TX, McAllen,
TX, Nogales, AZ, San Diego, CA, Tucson, AZ, Yuma, AZ,
Across the Board Success
3,242
2,825 2,859
2000
2500
3000
El Paso Violent
Crimes
7769
5960
80
100
Nogales Violent
Crimes
6,7446,047
5,5296000
8000
San Diego Violent
Crimes
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2004 2008 2012
59
0
20
40
60
2004 2008 2012
Updated Data, FBI Crime Statistics
0
2000
4000
2004 2008 2012
Two Border Cities Are Safest in US
1. El Paso, TX
2. San Diego, CA
6. Los Angeles, CA
7. Portland, OR
Lowest Crime Rate Ranking for
Cities of 500,000 or more Population (33 cities)
CQ Press – City Crime Rankings 2013
2. San Diego, CA
3. New York, NY
4. Austin, TX
5. San Jose, CA
7. Portland, OR
8. Charlotte, NC
9. Seattle, WA
10. San Antonio, TX
Unauthorized Immigration Flow Is Half of What
It Was
550,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Average Annual Inflow of Unauthorized Immigrants
*Based on DHS “Period of Entry of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population” Data
330,000300,000
263,333
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2010
While Deportations Have Increased
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Removals per Year
DHS “Yearbook of Immigration Statistics: 2011”
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
Net Flow Is Now Zero, Even Negative
400000
500000
600000Average Annual Inflow of
Unauthorized Immigrants
Average Annual Removal
of Unauthorized
Immigrants
*Calculations based on DHS Data
0
100000
200000
300000
1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2010
Leading to a Drop in Total Unauthorized
Population
9.7
10.4
11.1 11.3
12.011.6
11.1 11.2 11.111.0
12.0
13.0
Estimated US Unauthorized Immigrant Population
(In Millions)
*Rough Estimates Calculated by Pew Hispanic Center
8.4
9.3 9.49.7
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Flow of Mexican Migrants Has Plummeted
550
770
560
650600
700
800
900
Annual Immigration From Mexico To U.S.
(In Thousands)
370
550 560
280
140
0
100
200
300
400
500
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2010
Pew Hispanic Center - Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less
Unauthorized Mexican Population in the US Is
Shrinking
66.3
6.5
76.8 6.7
6.56.5
7
7.5
Estimated US Unauthorized Immigrant Population from
Mexico
4.64.8
5.25.5
6
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Pew Hispanic Center – Unauthorized Immigrant Population: National and State Trends, 2010
2,940
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500U.S. to Mexico Mexico to U.S.
Net Mexico-US Migration Now at Zero
670
1,390 1,370
0
500
1,000
1,500
1995 to 2000 2005 to 2010
Pew Hispanic Center - Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less
Tough Enforcement Provisions in Senate Bill
Will Push Unauthorized Flow Even Lower
300,000
225,000200,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Unauthorized Immigrants Entering US Per Year
150,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Current Estimate CBO Projection for
SJC S. 744- 25%
Decrease
CBO Projection for
Passed S. 744-33%
Decrease
CBO Projection for
Passed S. 744-
50% Decrease
CBO, Pew Hispanic Center*Since CBO did not include base numbers, estimates are based on recent rough estimate of current influx
Two of the Five “High Traffic” Corridors are
Already Above 90% “Effectiveness Rates”
92% 91%87%
84%
71%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Of the Border Patrol’s nine southwest-border sectors, five had more than 30,000 apprehensions Making
them a “high traffic” corridor.
“Effectiveness rate” is calculated by dividing the percentage of apprehensions plus turn backs per year by the
estimated total number of illegal entries per year.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
San Diego El Centro Tucson Laredo Rio Grande
Corridor
GAO - Border Patrol: Key Elements of New Strategic
Plan Not Yet in Place to Inform Border Security Status and Resource Needs, Dec. 2012
Apprehensions per Border Patrol Agent, 1992-2012
Washington Office on Latin America - Border Fact Check
The Immigration System Is Better
Administration Has Used Its Legal Authority To
Make Significant Improvements In the System
• Replaced work place raids with more targeted
and effective I-9 audits
• Expanded and improved the nation's worker
verification system
• Prioritized criminal migrants for deportation• Prioritized criminal migrants for deportation
• Implemented Deferred Action for Childhood
Arrivals (DREAM Youth)
• Is doing away with the 3-10 year bar, allowing
more families to stay together during the legal
immigration process
•
Administration Fought
Self - Deportation Movement and Won
• In 2010 the Obama Administration
Sued Arizona to stop the enforcement of
Arizona’s anti-immigrant legislation SB-
1070
• Arizona's SB1070, was dealt a near • Arizona's SB1070, was dealt a near
deathblow last year by a conservative
U.S. Supreme Court.
• State Senator Russell Pearce, the
political architect of SB1070, was
recalled from office by a coalition led by
mainstream GOP and business leaders
Mexico Is Modernizing, Growing
Mexico’s GDP Is Growing
$649,075,575,302
$759,777,472,170
$952,276,430,547
$1,094,480,339,422
$879,703,353,505
$1,153,343,069,401
$800,000,000,000
$1,000,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000,000
$1,400,000,000,000
GDP (current US$)
The World Bank Group http://data.worldbank.org/country/mexico
$403,195,508,734
$286,698,251,724
$481,202,434,427
$649,075,575,302
$0
$200,000,000,000
$400,000,000,000
$600,000,000,000GDP (current US$)
Mexico’s GDP Projected to Overtake France,
Germany, UK, Rival Japan by 2050
Goldman Sachs - Financial Times Beyondbrics Blog http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/12/07/goldman-sachs-brics-in-2050/#axzz2VGsw6iYV
US Trade with Mexico Has Skyrocketed
1993-2012
$290,356.19
$493,983.65
400000
500000
600000
*Bilateral goods and services trade reached an estimated $536 billion in 2012, a new record.
$81,498.30
$108,392.50
$196,629.40
$247,275.30 $305,546.51
$18,114.00$16,944.00 $23,636.00
$30,382.00$36,578.00
$36,841.00 $41,886.00
0
100000
200000
300000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total Goods Total Services
U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2012 services numbers are preliminary.
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/country/ and http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_ita.cfm
Mexico Has Become the US’s Third Largest
Trading Partner
16.5%
15.1%
12.8%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
5.3%
3.8%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Canada China Mexico Japan Germany
2012 Census - Foreign Trade Statistics
And Our Second Largest Export Market
23%
18%
15%
20%
25%
9%
5.1%3.8%
0%
5%
10%
Canada Mexico China Japan Germany
2012 Census - Foreign Trade Statistics
2000
2005
$7,820
2010
$8,930
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
Mexico’s Progress Is Much More Broadly SharedGross National Income (GNI)
1991
$3,250
1995
$3,760
2000
$5,010
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
World Bank - World Bank Development Indicators
1960
7.25
1965
7.161970
6.771975
6.07
1980
4.971985
4.08 19904.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Mexico Moving Toward Modern Developed
Nation Birthrates
1990
3.44 1995
2.88 2000
2.41
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Pew Research Center
Flow of Mexican Migrants Has Slowed
550
770
560
650600
700
800
900
Annual Immigration From Mexico To U.S.
(In Thousands)
370
550 560
280
140
0
100
200
300
400
500
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2010
Pew Hispanic Center - Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less
2,940
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500U.S. to Mexico Mexico to U.S.
Net Mexico-US Migration Now at Zero
670
1,390 1,370
0
500
1,000
1,500
1995 to 2000 2005 to 2010
Pew Hispanic Center - Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less
The Bottom Line
With more money, a better strategy and greater
cooperation with Mexico, the Obama
Administration and Congress have made our border
safer, our immigration system better while also
dramatically expanding legal trade and
tourism with Mexico. tourism with Mexico.
We have made great progress in recent years, but
now need to finish the job and pass a good CIR bill –
which includes a reasonable and fair path to
citizenship - this year.
Thank You
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www.21border.com