how is dwr responding to climate change
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How is DWR Responding to Climate Change. Sanjaya Seneviratne CWEMF November 21, 2003. Outline. Address Climate Change in the California water Plan A simplified approach to account for changes in run off due to Climate Change Case Study ( In-Delta Storage). California Water Plan - Outline. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
How is DWR Responding to Climate Change
Sanjaya Seneviratne CWEMF November 21, 2003
OutlineOutline
Address Climate Change in the Address Climate Change in the California water PlanCalifornia water Plan
A simplified approach to account A simplified approach to account for changes in run off due to for changes in run off due to Climate ChangeClimate Change
Case Study ( In-Delta Storage)Case Study ( In-Delta Storage)
California Water Plan - Outline
DWR Policy on Climate Change
How is DWR incorporating Climate Change into its activities. (SWP Report, B118, JACT initiatives, Water Plan )
Water Plan Recommendations—(draft) Chapter 3
DWR Policy on Climate Change 2001—New DWR management directive
on Climate Change
Consistent with the policies of other State agencies.
Will be addressed as a significant issue in the California Water Plan Update 2003
Climate Change Impacts
Temperature projection 1.4 to 5.8C (2.5 to10.4 F)
Reduced Sierra Snow Pack April-July Runoff Reduction by 2090 (Using+2.1C or 3.8F)
• Sacramento Region ---43 percent• Southern Sierra—23 percent
More precipitation falls as rain Earlier spring snow melt
More Extreme Storms (climate variability)
Rising Sea Level Coastal areas, groundwater, Delta levees (tides) and water
quality effects Projections range from 7 inches to 35 inches rise
..
..
Van Rheenen, N.T., A.W. Wood, R.N. Palmer and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2004
Central Valley Water Year Type Occurrence
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Critically Dry Dry Below Normal Above Normal Wet
Water Year Type
Per
cen
t G
iven
WY
Typ
e
hist (1906-2000) 2020s 2050s 2090s
.
California Climate Initiative
Formation of a Joint Agency Climate Team
Members Resources Agency (CEC, DWR, Forestry, F&G) CALEPA (Air Resources Board, SWRCB, Integrated Waste
management Department of Transportation Food and Ag, Trade & Commerce Governor’s Office—Planning & Research
Initiatives focus on reduction of GHG emissions and adaptation to Climate Change
JOINT AGENCY CLIMATE TEAMCLIMATE CHANGE INITIATIVES
DWR
Collect Better Hydrologic and Environmental Data
Enhance Water Management Planning Capacity
Water Plan
Acknowledgement of climate change Educate public Lay foundation for future research What can we do now Identifying a process for planners to
consider climate change—climate variability Look at risk/tradeoffs—protection of
investments, public safety,--incremental cost of added protection
California Water PlanPublic Advisory Committee
Stakeholder Views
Is global warming occurring? Belief in climate change but not from man
made causes Can not plan or prepare for climate
change Need only look at no-regret strategies Not an issue
Traditional Approach to Hydrology, Water Resources, and Climate
The classical assumption is equivalent to statistically stationary, “the future will resemble the past”
Assumes sufficient time and information is available to respond to climate change
Assumes no special effort is required to protect against surprises
Water Plan RecommendationsStakeholder Briefing Draft
Addressed in the Context of
Planning For an Uncertain Future
http://www.waterplan.water.ca.gov/b160/workgroups/chapterreviewgroup.htm
Enhance existing monitoring program that will verify past data trends and help validate models for evaluating climate change impacts. An enhanced monitoring program will help to build more accurate tools for predicting impacts at regional and local scales.
Incorporate flexible and robust climate change response strategies to the extent possible into the design, planning, and operation of systems.
Funding for federal, state and local agencies to develop strategic plans for dealing with climate change.
The State should support efforts to enhance public awareness about climate change and make information readily available.
Other than develop a strategic Other than develop a strategic plan, what has DWR done plan, what has DWR done about Climate Change ?about Climate Change ?
OutlineOutline
Address Climate Change in the Address Climate Change in the California water PlanCalifornia water Plan
A simplified approach to account A simplified approach to account for changes in Run off due to for changes in Run off due to Climate ChangeClimate Change
Case Study ( In-Delta Storage)Case Study ( In-Delta Storage)
Average monthly volume distributionAverage monthly volume distribution
VV(2000-1951) – (2000-1951) – VV (1950-1900) (1950-1900)
Annual Distribution of Unimpaired Runoff
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Month
Mo
nth
ly R
un
off
As
% W
Y R
un
off
1900-1950 Average
1951-2000 Average
50-Year Trend
100-Year Trend
Sacramento River at Bend Bridge
Comparison of Water Supply Impacts from Comparison of Water Supply Impacts from CALSIM StudiesCALSIM Studies
Base Study Study 1 Base- Study 1 Study 2 Base-Study 2
Total Delta Exports 4140 4070 -70 4035 -105
( 1928-1934)
Total Delta Exports 6251 6192 -59 6135 -116
(1922-1994)
Surplus Delta Outflow 646 679 33 723 77
( 1928-1934)
Surplus Delta Outflow 8447 8486 39 8601 154(1922-1994)
OutlineOutline
Address Climate Change in the Address Climate Change in the California water PlanCalifornia water Plan
A simplified approach to account A simplified approach to account for changes in Run off due to for changes in Run off due to Climate ChangeClimate Change
Case Study ( In-Delta Storage)Case Study ( In-Delta Storage)
Re-engineered Delta Wetlands ProjectRe-engineered Delta Wetlands ProjectBacon and Webb (Storage)Bacon and Webb (Storage)
Holland and Bouldin (Habitat) Holland and Bouldin (Habitat)
Re-engineered Delta Wetlands ProjectRe-engineered Delta Wetlands ProjectBacon and Webb (Storage)Bacon and Webb (Storage)
Holland and Bouldin (Habitat) Holland and Bouldin (Habitat)
Summary Of Climate Change Study Summary Of Climate Change Study ResultsResults
Total Carryover Storage Trinity
calsim 2 Study Delivery Diff Oroville Shasta Folsom San Luis Flow1922 - 1997 (TAF) (TAF)
Base Case 5740 - 1794 2232 462 429 701
(D 1641)
C. C Impacts 5896 156 1861 2254 461 442 703
(D 1641)
CWEMF WaterPlanSub
Committee
VISION for 2008VISION for 2008
Training, New Models, Large Modeling Efforts, Modeling User Groups